East Midlands Franchise competition

[Chester1]

Stagecoach have strategically focussed resources on Liverpool-Norwich to try and reduce the chance that the service will be split at Nottingham, despite this in many ways, if it allows for stock to be moved around onto other EMT service, actually being beneficial to rail in the east midlands.

I agree. The service needs lengthening between Manchester and Sheffield and apart from obtaining 159s from SWT I can't think of a cost effective option that does not involve spliting the services. Having 6 trains between Liverpool and Nottingham and then 2 to Norwich would be awkward to time table. 3 + 3 car 159s would suffice but EMT could benefit from using the 158s that would be freed up on new and strengthened services. TPE could retain some of the 22 185s that will be going off lease to run Liverpool to Nottingham services. If the Mark IIIs get a cheap overhaul to meet disability requirements (just one carriage with power doors etc like Cross Country), EMUs are leased for Corby to free up 4 Merdians, then it would possibly be unnecessary to obtain any new stock for long distance services. Th 153s are an issue though. I am really not convinced that the next EMT franchise will get any diesel or bi mode new builds. Including spares, 15 x 158s and 4 Merdians would be freed up by cutting Liverpool to Norwich and electrifying to Corby. There is a great deal of uncertainty over electrification and I think the DfT will want to kick the can down the road apart from new electric units.

 

[HH]

No chip on the shoulder my friend, just simple fact. Working on the local side, that's where the majority of the observations come from, and while EMT have done the best with the hand dealt them, it falls well short of the resources available to any of the three franchises you refer to, all of which operate more modern rolling stock than EMT local. 323's, 333's, 195's on order, 170's, 175's, 67's and stock for instance?

On order now, but that's because their (in the case of East Anglia, Northern and ScotRail) franchise competitions have run. East Midlands didn't have Pacers. Moreover, ScotRail was bid on getting rid of Class 170s, which were seen as inferior, from a passenger perspective, to Class 158s.

The grass is always greener...

 

[northwichcat]

No chip on the shoulder my friend, just simple fact. Working on the local side, that's where the majority of the observations come from, and while EMT have done the best with the hand dealt them, it falls well short of the resources available to any of the three franchises you refer to, all of which operate more modern rolling stock than EMT local. 323's, 333's, 195's on order, 170's, 175's, 67's and stock for instance?

Yet you can also make comparisons which show the stock used by the EMT franchise is at least as good as stock used by other franchises on equivalent routes.

Leicester is smaller than the main cities in the North and West Midlands but is similar in size to Cardiff. How does rolling stock compare between Leicester and Cardiff? If anything Leicester gets a better standard of stock due to not getting Pacers.

Liverpool to Norwich (which is actually just as much a North of England or East Anglia service as an East Midlands service) gets refurbished 158s. Pwllheli to Birmingham also gets refurbished 158s.

If you want to travel between the two largest cities in the East Midlands (Nottingham and Leicester) you can make the journey on a 222.

 

[northwichcat]

Moreover, ScotRail was bid on getting rid of Class 170s, which were seen as inferior, from a passenger perspective, to Class 158s.

The winning bid was to replace 170s with HSTs because 170s were seen as too commuter like for the longer routes. The proposal to release the 170s rather than doing an internal cascade and releasing Sprinters was to keep within the subsidy limits as Sprinters are cheaper to operate but Transport Scotland decided to allocate additional funds so some of the newer, more expensive DMUs could be retained.

 

[HH]

The winning bid was to replace 170s with HSTs because 170s were seen as too commuter like for the longer routes. The proposal to release the 170s rather than doing an internal cascade and releasing Sprinters was to keep within the subsidy limits as Sprinters are cheaper to operate but Transport Scotland decided to allocate additional funds so some of the newer, more expensive DMUs could be retained.

TS decided that as the 170s were newer it made a better story. In reality refurbished 158s offer a much better passenger experience on just about any route in Scotland. The other reason the original plans were to cascade out the 170s is that it simplified the maintenance requirement, improving efficiency. I have this on the best possible authority.

 

[Kneedown]

Passenger environment is just one aspect of rolling stock quality. You can make the most hideous unit or coach clean and presentable if you fully refurbish it.
Unit reliability is the major factor, and EMT currently have Sprinters falling down left, right and centre. 156's strengthening the Liverpool's is a several times daily occurrence, and 222's are currently frequent performers on the Lincoln-Leicesters.

 

[HH]

Sprinters are old stock now and need more than an interior facelift for certain. Clearly Abellio preferred to replace them with new stock, but as I noted earlier, conditions have changed since that bid. Don't bank on the decision being the same for EMT and that's not because the Midlands are seen as less important, it's just that the sums have changed.

 

[Kneedown]

Sprinters are old stock now and need more than an interior facelift for certain. Clearly Abellio preferred to replace them with new stock, but as I noted earlier, conditions have changed since that bid. Don't bank on the decision being the same for EMT and that's not because the Midlands are seen as less important, it's just that the sums have changed.

All bets are certainly off as regards what the new franchise will bring, and I certainly wouldn't like to call it. One thing is for certain though. If the new franchise wants to keep the Liverpools, then there must be a plan for the route that is more desirable than TPE's. Also, if potential new routes are to be explored, Ollerton, Birmingham, Cambridge etc, along with strengthening other services, then additional stock of one form or another will need to be sourced.

 

[Qwerty133]

Can any of the current EMT stock apart from the 222s be modified for DOO?

 

[hwl]

Sprinters are old stock now and need more than an interior facelift for certain. Clearly Abellio preferred to replace them with new stock, but as I noted earlier, conditions have changed since that bid. Don't bank on the decision being the same for EMT and that's not because the Midlands are seen as less important, it's just that the sums have changed.

Given that Abellio have gone for new stock there will now be surplus 156s and 170s available to other franchise bidders in the next few bids. If new South West franchise plan to replace some or all of the existing DMU stock there will be plenty of 158s and 159s also available. This is a very different situation to that which the Anglia bidders had where insufficient second hand DMU stock was available when bidding.

With the surplus DMU stock from Anglia and potentially southwest the EMT, London Midland and Wales & Borders franchise bidders should have enough good quality second-hand stock available to them to increase train lenghts and services and replace stock that is unlikely to be in service beyond the end of 2019 (pacers and 153s).

 

[HH]

Given that Abellio have gone for new stock there will now be surplus 156s and 170s available to other franchise bidders in the next few bids. If new South West franchise plan to replace some or all of the existing DMU stock there will be plenty of 158s and 159s also available. This is a very different situation to that which the Anglia bidders had where insufficient second hand DMU stock was available when bidding.

With the surplus DMU stock from Anglia and potentially southwest the EMT, London Midland and Wales & Borders franchise bidders should have enough good quality second-hand stock available to them to increase train lenghts and services and replace stock that is unlikely to be in service beyond the end of 2019 (pacers and 153s).

That seems like an excellent analysis to me.

 

[hwl]

That seems like an excellent analysis to me.

Thanks!

The same applies to the forthcoming franchises looking for AC EMU stock where there is now going to be a good choice of options using second-hand stock. (E.g. Corby)

There is also a good chance that micro fleets can be reduced to a sensible extent to help reduce operating costs.

[There aren't really any sensible secondhand DC EMU stock option available for the shorter distance services on SE or SW that are also both coming up, and I'm dubious about 442 suggestions for SWT given their performance at GTR.]

 

[Qwerty133]

Given that Abellio have gone for new stock there will now be surplus 156s and 170s available to other franchise bidders in the next few bids. If new South West franchise plan to replace some or all of the existing DMU stock there will be plenty of 158s and 159s also available. This is a very different situation to that which the Anglia bidders had where insufficient second hand DMU stock was available when bidding.

With the surplus DMU stock from Anglia and potentially southwest the EMT, London Midland and Wales & Borders franchise bidders should have enough good quality second-hand stock available to them to increase train lenghts and services and replace stock that is unlikely to be in service beyond the end of 2019 (pacers and 153s).

What this doesn't take into account is that the current failure rate strongly suggests that 158s are no longer able to cope with for a route as intensive as Liverpool-Norwich.
The majority of EMT local services could be operated with 156s and 158s (although if Liverpool to Norwich was taken out of the equation additional units would be unlikely to be necessary), but I think any bidder who thinks that using sprinters on Liverpool-Norwich services are going to provide them with anything but reliability problems from the start that will only get worse will be in for a shock.

 

[NotATrainspott]

The winning bid was to replace 170s with HSTs because 170s were seen as too commuter like for the longer routes. The proposal to release the 170s rather than doing an internal cascade and releasing Sprinters was to keep within the subsidy limits as Sprinters are cheaper to operate but Transport Scotland decided to allocate additional funds so some of the newer, more expensive DMUs could be retained.

The 170s are better suited for some of the commuter routes as they have suburban door and interior layouts. 158s might be great for long distance runs but they're less than ideal on a crush-loaded Fife Circle service.

 

[Grimsby town]

What this doesn't take into account is that the current failure rate strongly suggests that 158s are no longer able to cope with for a route as intensive as Liverpool-Norwich.
The majority of EMT local services could be operated with 156s and 158s (although if Liverpool to Norwich was taken out of the equation additional units would be unlikely to be necessary), but I think any bidder who thinks that using sprinters on Liverpool-Norwich services are going to provide them with anything but reliability problems from the start that will only get worse will be in for a shock.

I agree. I don't think the Liverpool - Norwich service can continue to be operated reliably for the whole of the franchise. Yes they are ok at the moment but by the end of the franchise they could well be near 40 years old. There are signficant sections of track on the Liverpool-Norwhich route that have a linespeed of over 80mph so it's not a surprise they are struggling with the route.

The other issue is keeping the 156's. If they are not agreed to be replaced in this franchise then by time the next franchise holder is in a position to be able to replace them they are going to have hit 40. While they are well built DMU's I think hoping they can make 40 years old is optimistic especially if they are being used on services that regularly require them to hit their top speed.

I'm realistic enough to know that EMT are probably not going to get a complete new fleet in the new franchise but I believe that there needs to be a plan in place to replace the 156's by the end of the franchise. It would make sense to either obtain new stock or provide fairly new stock for the Liverpool to Norwich line and cascade the 158's to local services with some of the slower and commuter lines (e.g. Robin Hood Line, Barton Line) being run by D trains or similar low cost solutions.

 

[bunnahabhain]

I think the issue with the 158s stems more from them running around on some diagrams calling all stops Nottingham to Worksop, Lincoln to Leicester, Newark to Matlock. It's very rare I've had one completely fail on me. The 222 running on a local diagram at present is to release a unit for maintenance to make them more reliable, to give maintenance time to actually fix things and get ontop of reliability rather than struggling to get enough units available for service at the start of the day.

 

[HH]

The 170s are better suited for some of the commuter routes as they have suburban door and interior layouts. 158s might be great for long distance runs but they're less than ideal on a crush-loaded Fife Circle service.

The plans were to electrify most of the suburban services (and AFAIK that included the Fife Circle), so that problem largely goes away.

 

[HH]

What this doesn't take into account is that the current failure rate strongly suggests that 158s are no longer able to cope with for a route as intensive as Liverpool-Norwich.

Liverpool-Norwich is an anomaly; no-one is going to let that route dictate their rolling stock strategy, unless the DfT puts something in the ITT. Class 158 was never designed for services like Liverpool-Norwich, neither was the Class 170 for that matter; however it's very costly to give it a fleet of its own.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Liverpool-Norwich is an anomaly; no-one is going to let that route dictate their rolling stock strategy, unless the DfT puts something in the ITT. Class 158 was never designed for services like Liverpool-Norwich

How wasn't it? It's a regional express unit, and that's a regional express route. It's exactly what it was for.

As for the 170, CT ordered them precisely for that route and other similar ones.

 

[HH]

How wasn't it? It's a regional express unit, and that's a regional express route. It's exactly what it was for.

As for the 170, CT ordered them precisely for that route and other similar ones.

It's hardly regional as it covers several regions...

 

[Bletchleyite]

It's hardly regional as it covers several regions...

OK, if you must, it's a regional express style service. There are REs in Germany with running times well over three hours. That our regions are smaller is neither here nor there.

But whatever you call it, it is exactly what 158s and 170s were intended for.

 

[HH]

OK, if you must, it's a regional express style service. There are REs in Germany with running times well over three hours. That our regions are smaller is neither here nor there.

But whatever you call it, it is exactly what 158s and 170s were intended for.

Regional work is what they were built for I would concur. Liverpool-Norwich is not a regional service. At least in my opinion. It shares more in common with Crosscountry services.

 

[43096]

Regional work is what they were built for I would concur. Liverpool-Norwich is not a regional service. At least in my opinion. It shares more in common with Crosscountry services.

Sorry, but you are wrong. 158s were built for the Provincial/Regional Railways "Express" network, of which Liverpool-Norwich was a part.

The fact that the old BR XC has been downgraded to jumped-up Sprinter status from a proper IC service by the use of short, unsuitable trains with, at best, trolley catering is probably where the confusion lies.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Regional work is what they were built for I would concur. Liverpool-Norwich is not a regional service. At least in my opinion. It shares more in common with Crosscountry services.

No, it doesn't - check the calling patterns for example, it serves far more minor places than "proper XC" does. (The XC Class 170 services *are* similar to Liverpool-Norwich, being former Central Citylink services).

It's a string of regional express services and always has been.

 

[ashworth]

When you consider the dreadful state of most of the stock that Stagecoach inherited from Central Trains and elsewhere I think they have done a fantastic job. The refurbishment of the 158's and to a lesser extent the 156's and 153"s were done quickly and very well. For a time they did almost felt like fairly new trains but they are now all beginning to show their age.

There seems to be much talk about various unwanted stock from other TOCs becoming available in the next few years which will be available to whoever wins the East Midlands franchise. Stagecoach inherited no new stock, apart from the fairly new 222's, and once again when so many other areas of the country are getting new trains there is speculation that the East Midlands will once again miss out and get old stock that other TOCs no longer require. With all the uncertainty over the electrification of the MML once again the East Midlands could be completely missing out on new trains.

 

[Failed Unit]

Sorry, but you are wrong. 158s were built for the Provincial/Regional Railways "Express" network, of which Liverpool-Norwich was a part.

The fact that the old BR XC has been downgraded to jumped-up Sprinter status from a proper IC service by the use of short, unsuitable trains with, at best, trolley catering is probably where the confusion lies.

Agree - when you look at the routes the 158s were designed for and introduced on that is probably the last one that still has them.

But they were designed for.
Aberdeen / Inverness - Edinburgh (2 cars)
Liverpool / Birmingham - Cambridge / Norwich
All TPE routes.

I would argue they shouldn't be on routes such as Anniesland - Glasgow, but they were definately designed for Long distance regional routes. In fact XC did some serious milage with them before voyagers.

Back to the EMT franchise.
My hope is that we will see clockface in Lincolnshire, less single 153s and connectivity to the rest of the UK!

I doubt we will see the return of Lincoln - Birmingham as that will require XC cooperation. But Grimsby - Nottingham would be nice (now the Grimsby - Newark shuttle won't be needed as East Coast will be coming to Lincoln every 2 hours so Grimsby passengers can change there). I always feel the poor frequencies and connection in Lincolnshire encourage rail users to drive to thier nearest mainline stations. Hopefully services after 2000 as well!

 

[hwl]

Surely the simple solution for Liverpool - Norwich is to use some of the shorter 222s that becomes surplus after electrification and then use some of the released 158 from Liverpool - Norwich on other routes and use the sprinter fleet slightly less intensively to allow more maintenance?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Surely the simple solution for Liverpool - Norwich is to use some of the shorter 222s that becomes surplus after electrification and then use some of the released 158 from Liverpool - Norwich on other routes and use the sprinter fleet slightly less intensively to allow more maintenance?

A double 158 has far more capacity than a 4-car 222 and close to a 5-car one. You'd need the longer ones.

 

[HH]

Sorry, but you are wrong. 158s were built for the Provincial/Regional Railways "Express" network, of which Liverpool-Norwich was a part.

The fact that the old BR XC has been downgraded to jumped-up Sprinter status from a proper IC service by the use of short, unsuitable trains with, at best, trolley catering is probably where the confusion lies.

I accept your correction; that means that with a suitable refresh they should be capable of a few more years service!

 

[LowLevel]

Can any of the current EMT stock apart from the 222s be modified for DOO?

It's by no means a certainty that 22X can be ergonomically modified for DOO. Just because the train is more modern, it has a fairly crowded cab environment as it is. Fitting CCTV cameras for 10 car operation isn't necessarily simple. They do have in cab door controls but so do/did 15X.

HSTs and 153/6/8 I would lay money on not being considered for conversion.