I agree there is likely to be a need for a manned presence for the foreseable future, and such a person is likely to need to be skilled, but I can't see anything in your argument which really suggests that role will always have to be a driver.
Well, one of the biggest reasons why a driver is still required is to step in when the automated system fails. Earlier in the thread someone suggested that the train would simply stop but failed to answer my question about what happens next. It can't simply be left to sit there waiting for a fix. When the train can no longer drive itself it can still be driven by a driver.
Can you clarify, are you trying to use this as an argument that trains will never be driverless due to technological limitations, or just that technology isn't advanced enough *at the moment*.
I don't really see how one could believe the former claim. Technology is improving, not just processor power, but the algorithmic side of things.
Who can say? Technology improves year on year and things that seemed science fiction just a few decades ago are now accepted parts of our everyday lives. No-one can say that it will never happen but, as has already been discussed at great length, there would have to be both technological and social changes before it can happen.
The problem at the moment is that the level of artificial intelligence required for this task is currently beyond the bounds of technical possibilities. Universities, research institutes and multi-million dollar global conglomerates are all working on expanding the bounds of artificial intelligence, but it is such a hard nut to crack. Yes there have been robots and computers that have been able to perform certain tasks, but even the best of these are supremely limited in the range of tasks they can complete and the environments that they can work within. Even the apparently simple task of catching a ball requires massive amounts of computing power. And neither can it do it better than a human, so there isn't any danger to England's cricket outfielders just yet.
The processing power is a big stumbling block, as I have said before. However, even that sells the problem short. You can't simply throw more and more processing power at a computer and, hey presto, you have artificial intelligence. The processing power simply gives you the speed and capacity to very quickly run lots of processes.
The biggest stumbling block is how do you teach a computer to think for itself, exercise judgement and make decisions, and that is what baffles researchers. We don't understand how we do it ourselves, so how much harder is it for us to replicate these processes artificially, particularly when a computer doesn't already come hard-wired with a lot of complicated software that governs a lot of the behaviours and instincts that fosters our own intelligence. Quite frankly, the state at which artificial intelligence stands now we are a very long way from replicating human intelligence to the extent that they can replace us in tasks that actually require intelligent thought or judgement.
A good example, actually, would be a person obscured by foliage. Spotting such a thing is a difficult task. But a computer would be able to reference every previous cab video from the line. Still a computationally difficult task, I'm sure. But one can imagine with suitable pre-processing being able to use this data to pick up changes and hazards that a human might not spot. Secondary cameras could be used to zoom in on a potential hazards, analyse and react before a human could see it.
Such technology could firstly be designed as a drivers aid, either alerting the driver, or slowing the train until the driver is able to analyse the situation properly themselves.
But the problem is more than just an ongoing game of "Spot the Difference". In fact, comparing "before" and "after" images isn't a simple matter at all, as the images can look very different indeed simply through differences in light or the direction of the wind.
Even assuming that the computer could make such a comparison and find where there are differences, it has only done the very first step. The hardest part is to interpret that data and work out what it needs to do next. A person partially obscured by foliage may or may not necessarily be a risk. It could be a person waiting safely to cross or someone waiting to take their own life. It may simply be a trick of the light that can look like a person (I've seen this more times than I can count). This is a critical skill that it would need to master if it is to be trusted with a train.
I think the interesting question for me is more "will there be a point in time where the need for a driver doesn't exist". To which the answer must surely be "we don't know, but there is a need for a driver at the moment".
Assuming artificial intelligence can be made to work, assuming that it is robust and reliable enough to work in the real world outside of the laboratory, assuming that it is affordable as well as practical and, importantly, assuming that it socially accepted, then yes, we may well see it taking over some tasks. However, the task of driving trains will surely be quite a long way down the list. My own view is that it may one day become a technical possibility but that it won't happen for a very very long time. The barriers that it would need to clear, both technically and socially, are simply too high.
O L Leigh