Does Thameslink require a radical Action Plan?

[A0]

These aren’t really minor stations. All are quite large towns, most of which have seen considerable expansion since the 90s (fast services were apparently justifiable even then), and also serve considerable catchment areas. The service now is essentially wrecked compared to pre-2018.

Bit in bold - No they're not.

Biggleswade ~22,000
Sandy ~ 11,000
St Neots ~ 30,000
Huntingdon ~ 25,000

For comparison

Letchworth ~35,000

Go across to the Midland Mainline north of Bedford and you have

Wellingborough ~56,000 (plus Rushden at ~30,000)
Kettering ~63,000
Corby ~ 56,000

Less than 30,000 isn't a "large" town.

 

[bramling]

That's not quite true, they were half hourly and for a longer period during the peaks so it's true the fast service isn't as good but they have never run all day.

By 2020 it was half hourly in the up direction during the morning peak (there was also one isolated down service for a short while, but this was essentially a glorified ECS), half hourly down service during the evening peak, hourly down service through the evening, and a handful of up services in the evening (the latter again mainly for positioning, but *very* useful for shift workers, of which the Peterborough route serves a fair few). Three tidal flow services per day in each direction at weekends.

For balance I suppose one should add that the base Thameslink service is now solid 12 car, which wasn’t the case when the King’s Cross 2tph service ran - until the mid-2010s this was predominantly 4 car during off-peak times.

 

[4-SUB 4732]

Well, who would have thought a stupid idea like Thameslink on the scale it ended up being would be bad.

Simplification on an epic scale to make it succeed I think - that's all we've got left.

 

[Bald Rick]

Well, who would have thought a stupid idea like Thameslink on the scale it ended up being would be bad.

Simplification on an epic scale to make it succeed I think - that's all we've got left.

Personally I don’t think it’s bad. Seeing tonight (again) a train pulling in to St Pancras accelerating hard to linespeed as the train ahead was clearing the points for Canal tunnel, and recovering a few minutes through the core, it seems to work fine.

 

[bramling]

Personally I don’t think it’s bad. Seeing tonight (again) a train pulling in to St Pancras accelerating hard to linespeed as the train ahead was clearing the points for Canal tunnel, and recovering a few minutes through the core, it seems to work fine.

I’m afraid it doesn’t work so well when one’s northbound train is 20 late by the time it reaches London Bridge, and after leaving Finsbury Park comes the announcement “will be running fast from Stevenage to Peterborough”. One of several reasons why I’ve ditched using it.

 

[Bald Rick]

I’m afraid it doesn’t work so well when one’s northbound train is 20 late by the time it reaches London Bridge, and after leaving Finsbury Park comes the announcement “will be running fast from Stevenage to Peterborough”. One of several reasons why I’ve ditched using it.

Accepyre, but at least they’ll be one 10 mins behind

 

[bramling]

Accepyre, but at least they’ll be one 10 mins behind

Assuming that’s not cancelled or delayed, of course.

The problem with Thameslink isn’t the core, it’s all well and good to point to how efficiently that runs (most of the time, anyway), but this doesn’t assuage the problem of delays picked up elsewhere, which is what was predicted on here long before 2018.

It was tolerable whilst the extra 365 services ran, albeit only if one’s journey happened to coincide with the times they ran, but now they’re not running it has essentially made using the train to travel to/from London unviable for me. I’m unlikely to return whilst things are as they are. Indeed I’m currently in the midst of what I suspect is the longest sustained period *ever* in my lifetime that I haven’t used a train to get from home to London.

 

[A0]

Assuming that’s not cancelled or delayed, of course.

The problem with Thameslink isn’t the core, it’s all well and good to point to how efficiently that runs (most of the time, anyway), but this doesn’t assuage the problem of delays picked up elsewhere, which is what was predicted on here long before 2018.

It was tolerable whilst the extra 365 services ran, albeit only if one’s journey happened to coincide with the times they ran, but now they’re not running it has essentially made using the train to travel to/from London unviable for me. I’m unlikely to return whilst things are as they are. Indeed I’m currently in the midst of what I suspect is the longest sustained period *ever* in my lifetime that I haven’t used a train to get from home to London.

"Unviable" in what way?

The fact there aren't fast services which were a couple of minutes faster doesn't make it unviable.

Nor does a service frequency of 2 TPH - not when that's the service level places like Wellingborough (3x bigger than Biggleswade) or Northampton (10x bigger than Biggleswade) get to London.

Delays - well yes, that makes it unattractive, but not necessarily unviable and delays don't happen to the same train(s) every day

This feels more like an excuse based on the fact you don't see why your local station should have a 2tph stopping service comprised of 700s when you feel it should be 3+ tph comprised of stock you like running fast to London.

It's not like you can argue that going into the main station at King Cross offered better / easier onward connectivity - most of the tube lines were a trek at Kings Cross. Farringdon's a much shorter walk for the Met / H&C and Circle than Kings Cross, Blackfriars puts you on the south side of the Circle and the District. And if your destination is the West End, then the easiest way from the GN was always to change at Finsbury Park (cross platform) to a Moorgate train and onto the Victoria at Highbury & Islington (another cross platform change).

 

[LLivery]

I'd think again about Corby. Divert the Peterborough service to there - even the times at St Pancras match almost perfectly. Build an Oakley Parkway too.

So I'd have: 4tph St Albans - Catford, 4tph Luton - Sutton loop, 2tph Bedford - Brighton, 2tph Bedford - Three Bridges, 2tph Cambridge - Brighton and 2tph Corby - Horsham. In the peaks - add 2tph Welwyn - East Grinstead. That's it.

 

[A0]

I'd think again about Corby. Divert the Peterborough service to there - even the times at St Pancras match almost perfectly. Build an Oakley Parkway too.

So I'd have: 4tph St Albans - Catford, 4tph Luton - Sutton loop, 2tph Bedford - Brighton, 2tph Bedford - Three Bridges, 2tph Cambridge - Brighton and 2tph Corby - Horsham. In the peaks - add 2tph Welwyn - East Grinstead. That's it.

No chance - the MML doesn't have the capacity, unless you're suggesting replacement of the EMR Connect services with Thameslink - but all you're doing is degrading the service at Corby and Wellingborough, where there isn't a practical alternative, whereas Peterborough *does* have LNER services.

Huntingdon, St Neots, Sandy and Biggleswade combined had about 4m passengers - pre Covid.

Corby, Kettering and Wellingborough about 2.5m with Corby only having an hourly service at that time.

 

[Fred26]

When there's no disruption, the Thameslink service is excellent. Unfortunately, when it goes wrong it goes very wrong and every service is affected, even those not going through the core.
I use the service almost every day, at all sorts of times.

Post-covid was the perfect time to introduce changes to the service which has had a fairly set pattern for many years (even GN pre-TL), but there are more trains now.
Excluding the Kings Lynn/Ely trains, there are 6tph over Welwyn viaduct. I'd split them 3tph to Peterborough, and 3tph to Cambridge, rather than the 2tph PBO and 4tph CBG that exist today.
I'd run the Peterborough services all stops to Stevenage, then they'd have different calling patterns - 1tph non-stop to Finsbury Park; 1tph Welwyn Garden City, Finsbury Park; and 1tph Knebworth, Welwyn North, Welwyn Garden City, Finsbury Park.
After Finsbury Park they'd all run through the core.
As for Cambridge, 1tph all stops Cambridge to Welwyn Garden City, Finsbury Park then core; 1tph Cambridge, Royston, Baldock, Letchworth, Hitchin, Stevenage, Welwyn Garden City, Finsbury Park then core; and 1tph Cambridge, Royston, Baldock, Letchworth, Hitchin, Stevenage, Finsbury Park then core.

As you can see, I'd remove Hatfield and Potters Bar stops, but replace them with 6tph (4tph Moorgate, 2tph core) Welwyn stoppers with much improved connections at WGC.

 

[A0]

When there's no disruption, the Thameslink service is excellent. Unfortunately, when it goes wrong it goes very wrong and every service is affected, even those not going through the core.
I use the service almost every day, at all sorts of times.

Post-covid was the perfect time to introduce changes to the service which has had a fairly set pattern for many years (even GN pre-TL), but there are more trains now.
Excluding the Kings Lynn/Ely trains, there are 6tph over Welwyn viaduct. I'd split them 3tph to Peterborough, and 3tph to Cambridge, rather than the 2tph PBO and 4tph CBG that exist today.
I'd run the Peterborough services all stops to Stevenage, then they'd have different calling patterns - 1tph non-stop to Finsbury Park; 1tph Welwyn Garden City, Finsbury Park; and 1tph Knebworth, Welwyn North, Welwyn Garden City, Finsbury Park.
After Finsbury Park they'd all run through the core.
As for Cambridge, 1tph all stops Cambridge to Welwyn Garden City, Finsbury Park then core; 1tph Cambridge, Royston, Baldock, Letchworth, Hitchin, Stevenage, Welwyn Garden City, Finsbury Park then core; and 1tph Cambridge, Royston, Baldock, Letchworth, Hitchin, Stevenage, Finsbury Park then core.

As you can see, I'd remove Hatfield and Potters Bar stops, but replace them with 6tph (4tph Moorgate, 2tph core) Welwyn stoppers with much improved connections at WGC.

Bit in bold - I think the problem you'll have us the faster 'outer suburban' services will end up tripping over / get caught behind the slower all stop services on the slows. And they'll be caught by LNER / Grand Central / Hull Trains services on the fasts.

You have to run on the slows into / out of Welwyn Gdn City because there are no fast line platforms there.

 

[LLivery]

No chance - the MML doesn't have the capacity, unless you're suggesting replacement of the EMR Connect services with Thameslink - but all you're doing is degrading the service at Corby and Wellingborough, where there isn't a practical alternative, whereas Peterborough *does* have LNER services.

Huntingdon, St Neots, Sandy and Biggleswade combined had about 4m passengers - pre Covid.

Corby, Kettering and Wellingborough about 2.5m with Corby only having an hourly service at that time.

The only increase on the Midland I'm proposing is 8tph for all stations between Kentish Town - St Albans, with 4tph Catford Loop + 4tph Sutton Loop.

For the fasts, I'm saying replace the EMR 'Electric' and Peterborough-Horsham with Corby-Horsham and Peterborough-King's X, hopefully making Thameslink and the ECML more reliable. Interesting figures with the Cambs towns pax numbers, but could this not be a case of 'provide better and they shall come'? Kettering has seen good growth, while Wellingborough is significantly down. But with the population growth happening, 1.5m extra pre-covid passengers may not be too difficult to achieve with Thameslink fares, and I still say one of the expresses should call at Wellingborough, rather than both at Kettering. That'd result in an overall better service for Wellingborough, equal again with Kettering like it had been for decades.

 

[A0]

The only increase on the Midland I'm proposing is 8tph for all stations between Kentish Town - St Albans, with 4tph Catford Loop + 4tph Sutton Loop.

For the fasts, I'm saying replace the EMR 'Electric' and Peterborough-Horsham with Corby-Horsham and Peterborough-King's X, hopefully making Thameslink and the ECML more reliable. Interesting figures with the Cambs towns pax numbers, but could this not be a case of 'provide better and they shall come'? Kettering has seen good growth, while Wellingborough is significantly down. But with the population growth happening, 1.5m extra pre-covid passengers may not be too difficult to achieve with Thameslink fares, and I still say one of the expresses should call at Wellingborough, rather than both at Kettering. That'd result in an overall better service for Wellingborough, equal again with Kettering like it had been for decades.

Which means Kettering would be down to 1 tph (again) to Market Harborough and Leicester - which isn't helpful.

And do 'all stations' between St Albans and Kentish Town justify 8 tph ?

 

[JonathanH]

Kettering has seen good growth, while Wellingborough is significantly down. But with the population growth happening, 1.5m extra pre-covid passengers may not be too difficult to achieve with Thameslink fares, and I still say one of the expresses should call at Wellingborough, rather than both at Kettering.

Why would 'Thameslink fares', by which I assume you mean lower fares, apply at stations north of Bedford if Thameslink trains were extended to Corby?

Fares haven't been reduced because 222s were replaced by 360s.

 

[LLivery]

Which means Kettering would be down to 1 tph (again) to Market Harborough and Leicester - which isn't helpful.

And do 'all stations' between St Albans and Kentish Town justify 8 tph ?

It's not fantastic, but it's not useful for Wellingborough at the moment, either.

I think they can justify 8tph, especially now being on the tube map. If the likes of Epping can handle higher, I fail to see why they can't. Provide better and they shall come.

Why would 'Thameslink fares', by which I assume you mean lower fares, apply at stations north of Bedford if Thameslink trains were extended to Corby?

Fares haven't been reduced because 222s were replaced by 360s.

This is more wishful thinking, than anything.

 

[A0]

It's not fantastic, but it's not useful for Wellingborough at the moment, either.

I disagree - Wellingborough - Leicester is consistently no more than 45 mins across the day with a 5-10 minute connection time. That's a pretty good balance.

Kettering is bigger than Wellingborough, has a higher station use and is the point where the Corby trains join the mainline - it's easily the most logical place for the connection.

I think they can justify 8tph, especially now being on the tube map. If the likes of Epping can handle higher, I fail to see why they can't. Provide better and they shall come.

Knowing the area a bit - I disagree.

St Albans and Radlett get a pretty good service overall.

Once you get south of Borehamwood, the other stations are all in close proximity to other lines - which isn't the case on the north end of the Central line (i.e. after Stratford heading north/east).

From Epping - going west the next nearest station is Waltham Cross at 7 miles away, going south/west you're looking at Brentwood or Harold Wood, both about 12 miles away.

Whereas Mill Hill Broadway has Burnt Oak or Edgware about a mile away, Hendon is about half a mile to Hendon Central, Cricklewood and Willesden Green are less than a mile apart and beyond there you've got direct connections to the Underground.

The two really aren't comparable.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

I disagree - Wellingborough - Leicester is consistently no more than 45 mins across the day with a 5-10 minute connection time. That's a pretty good balance.

Kettering is bigger than Wellingborough, has a higher station use and is the point where the Corby trains join the mainline - it's easily the most logical place for the connection.


Knowing the area a bit - I disagree.

St Albans and Radlett get a pretty good service overall.

Once you get south of Borehamwood, the other stations are all in close proximity to other lines - which isn't the case on the north end of the Central line (i.e. after Stratford heading north/east).

From Epping - going west the next nearest station is Waltham Cross at 7 miles away, going south/west you're looking at Brentwood or Harold Wood, both about 12 miles away.

Whereas Mill Hill Broadway has Burnt Oak or Edgware about a mile away, Hendon is about half a mile to Hendon Central, Cricklewood and Willesden Green are less than a mile apart and beyond there you've got direct connections to the Underground.

The two really aren't comparable.

Having travelled for the best part of 30 years on stopping services south of St Albans , (and having been involved in some professional ways with Thameslink) , i see no point in bettering the existing service - which is pretty generous at 6 tph most of the day at 4 tph all stations and 2 tph semi-fast) - capacity is not really and issue with the 700's having plenty of space - albeit some standing. The new Brent Cross station will not be a driver for any more service in my opinion.

Comparing "x" trains per hour at Epping is all very well , but worth pointing out the MML slow lines also has reasonable freight traffic - especially in daylight hours. Paths have to be maintained for them on what has been described formally as "a congested route"

 

[SussexSeagull]

The couple of peak time services from/to Littlehampton now stop at London Bridge. Which kind of means the Thameslink project and it's many millions have - committing wise at least - made no difference to me as changing trains on the way up was always an option if you wanted City Thameslink, Faringdon, etc.

 

[LLivery]

I disagree - Wellingborough - Leicester is consistently no more than 45 mins across the day with a 5-10 minute connection time. That's a pretty good balance.

Kettering is bigger than Wellingborough, has a higher station use and is the point where the Corby trains join the mainline - it's easily the most logical place for the connection.


Knowing the area a bit - I disagree.

St Albans and Radlett get a pretty good service overall.

Once you get south of Borehamwood, the other stations are all in close proximity to other lines - which isn't the case on the north end of the Central line (i.e. after Stratford heading north/east).

From Epping - going west the next nearest station is Waltham Cross at 7 miles away, going south/west you're looking at Brentwood or Harold Wood, both about 12 miles away.

Whereas Mill Hill Broadway has Burnt Oak or Edgware about a mile away, Hendon is about half a mile to Hendon Central, Cricklewood and Willesden Green are less than a mile apart and beyond there you've got direct connections to the Underground.

The two really aren't comparable.

While I do agree the balance isn't the worst for Wellingborough, the difference between pre and post covid passenger numbers as a % clearly show people are unhappy with the new service provided. Yes, Kettering is a bigger town, but Wellingborough (plus future growth), Rushen + HF will essentially be one bigger urban area quite soon. I could talk all day on development/transport for this area, but if the question is 'serve Corby or Peterborough to help Thameslink reliability', I'd choose Corby.

Having travelled for the best part of 30 years on stopping services south of St Albans , (and having been involved in some professional ways with Thameslink) , i see no point in bettering the existing service - which is pretty generous at 6 tph most of the day at 4 tph all stations and 2 tph semi-fast) - capacity is not really and issue with the 700's having plenty of space - albeit some standing. The new Brent Cross station will not be a driver for any more service in my opinion.

Comparing "x" trains per hour at Epping is all very well , but worth pointing out the MML slow lines also has reasonable freight traffic - especially in daylight hours. Paths have to be maintained for them on what has been described formally as "a congested route"

Epping wasn't really a serious comment and I totally accept capacity issues - I forgot about freight down there. At the same time, everywhere the tube goes, no matter how residential, the usage is quite high. Yet rail is often much lower and then it's argued rail doesn't need to be better. Saying this, I don't believe there are enough MML stations in North London, and it's probably one of the reasons usage isn't as high as it could be, but that's a different argument.

 

[Bald Rick]

Saying this, I don't believe there are enough MML stations in North London, and it's probably one of the reasons usage isn't as high as it could be, but that's a different argument.

6 in less than 8 miles from Kentish Town to Mill Hill Bway (when Brent Cross opens) - and a mile of that is Belsize tunnel. I’d say it’s pretty well catered for!

 

[A0]

While I do agree the balance isn't the worst for Wellingborough, the difference between pre and post covid passenger numbers as a % clearly show people are unhappy with the new service provided. Yes, Kettering is a bigger town, but Wellingborough (plus future growth), Rushen + HF will essentially be one bigger urban area quite soon. I could talk all day on development/transport for this area, but if the question is 'serve Corby or Peterborough to help Thameslink reliability', I'd choose Corby.

Bit in bold - Rubbish - it proves nothing of the sort.

The majority of Wellingborough's traffic was always towards London, not Leicester. The basic service is essentially the same as pre Covid - 2tph, stopping at Bedford & Luton - the only difference now is both Luton stations are served.

Wellingboro 18/19 usage vs 21/22 is ~ -47%
Northampton for the same is ~ -45%
Market Harborough for the same is ~ -42%
Bedford for the same is ~ -43%

Only Kettering seems to have recovered - in fact it's up on 18/19 which suggests something odd in the data collection - because it's a complete outlier to other local stations.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

6 in less than 8 miles from Kentish Town to Mill Hill Bway (when Brent Cross opens) - and a mile of that is Belsize tunnel. I’d say it’s pretty well catered for!

Remembering of course - the preliminary Bed-Pan off peak services at the inner stations was a mere 1 tph , later increased to 2tp (demand took a while to increase in those days) - whereas the present off peak service is excellent in comparison. In passing - station facilities are much improved , for many years West Hampstead was a bleak station with just a wooden shed as a ticket office ...........

 

[A0]

Remembering of course - the preliminary Bed-Pan off peak services at the inner stations was a mere 1 tph , later increased to 2tp (demand took a while to increase in those days) - whereas the present off peak service is excellent in comparison. In passing - station facilities are much improved , for many years West Hampstead was a bleak station with just a wooden shed as a ticket office ...........

Bit in bold - and didn't always appear.

ISTR reading an article which stated the GN inner suburbans launched their electric service with 3 tph from both Welwyn Gdn City and Hertford North to Moorgate, yet within a few years that had been dropped to 2 tph.

 

[LLivery]

6 in less than 8 miles from Kentish Town to Mill Hill Bway (when Brent Cross opens) - and a mile of that is Belsize tunnel. I’d say it’s pretty well catered for!

Once Brent Cross opens, I'd agree with maybe one extra. It has the least stations than all the main lines in London. If I was to build from scratch I'd change that.

Bit in bold - Rubbish - it proves nothing of the sort.

The majority of Wellingborough's traffic was always towards London, not Leicester. The basic service is essentially the same as pre Covid - 2tph, stopping at Bedford & Luton - the only difference now is both Luton stations are served.

Wellingboro 18/19 usage vs 21/22 is ~ -47%
Northampton for the same is ~ -45%
Market Harborough for the same is ~ -42%
Bedford for the same is ~ -43%

Only Kettering seems to have recovered - in fact it's up on 18/19 which suggests something odd in the data collection - because it's a complete outlier to other local stations.

Of course, it was majority was to London, but it's an amazing coincidence that once Kettering gets its service doubled, the usage is up. It's the only station other than Bedford which has worse direct connections than before and unsurprisingly, Wellingborough is the most down in numbers on the entire 'Intercity' MML other than EM Pkwy. I'll love to find out how this outlier stat has suddenly appeared if it's 'rubbish'. But I guess we won't find out until the next figures are released. But this isn't TL related, so I'll leave it as that. Agree to disagree (until then, at least)

 

[Bald Rick]

Of course, it was majority was to London, but it's an amazing coincidence that once Kettering gets its service doubled, the usage is up. It's the only station other than Bedford which has worse direct connections than before and unsurprisingly, Wellingborough is the most down in numbers on the entire 'Intercity' MML other than EM Pkwy.

There’s some evidence to suggest that many people who have the choice between Kettering and Wellingborough who ‘Pre electric’ travelled from Wellingborough have switched to Kettering to save 10 minutes or so each way. That has the double effect of improving Kettering and depressing Wellingborough.

 

[cle]

I think 8tph Kentish Town to St Albans is a good metro service. Especially if it enables a consistent 4tph on Catford - and a predictable inner London route. It could almost be marketed as a tube line - Cricklewood to Elephant, for instance... etc would be an instinctive TL journey for a Londoner to do. TL has never cracked this, and the core is dead during the off peaks - so this use-case has potential to relieve the tube further.

As we've see on the Overground, if something is frequent, visible and well-known, it will be very well patronised. We should aspire to better - and to densification along the route.

 

[Bald Rick]

and the core is dead during the off peaks - so this use-case has potential to relieve the tube further.

It might be for you, but it doesn’t seem dead when I use it off peak!

Theres been 4tph Cricklewood to an elephant for as long as I can remember, which is frankly a far better service than many London suburban routes, including some run by LO. I strongly suspect that it is not the sort of journey people need to make.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

My experience - at all kinds of times , shows the "core" is much busier of late - , particularly as there is some new fangled west / east route interchanging at Farringdon. Busy enough , but plenty of space in the 700's.

 

[Bald Rick]

My experience - at all kinds of times , shows the "core" is much busier of late - , particularly as there is some new fangled west / east route interchanging at Farringdon. Busy enough , but plenty of space in the 700's.

Try the 0827 Guv’, crush loaded TWThO.