Do you think Thameslink has failed? And what can be done to fix it

[ChiefPlanner]

OK, so maybe my hat has devil's advocate printed on the front. Had the timetable been implemented on the 20th May and some conflicts/problems had been found then you could imagine a process of debugging/tweaking schedules to improve things - and that could conceivably be referred to as bedding in. But Thameslink are attempting to describe their current unmitigated disaster, where random trains run and stop based on someone throwing darts at a dart board (or so it appears!), as bedding in. It's just a total shambles and, if anything, is getting worse. It's surely guaranteed to get worse still as the school holidays arrive and drivers understandably take their holidays?

I have travelled through far too many years of Thameslink woes (since 1989 - and before from the Wimbledon Loop) , - before the very recent melt down ,and through this freezing winter , the route on the Midland size performed pretty well (or better than) , so much goodwill has gone off a cliff edge. The GN side could hardly be worse IMHO.

 

[NorthKent1989]

As I have said time and time again, at this stage for what was the biggest rail developments of its time, there should be no "bedding in" pure and simple, this should have been working from May 20th on the dot! If Thameslink weren't quite ready then fair enough but delay it don't expect passengers to be grateful about heading to Luton from Northfleet or Horsham from Stevenage when there are unreasonably long gaps between services or out an out cancellations.

People might have been more forgiving if GTR said they needed a couple of more months to work out the issues that plague us today, now instead Thameslink.has become a swear word in Medway.

Thameslink can be fixed however, the powers that be just have to be brave enough to accept that certain aspects of the time table change isn't working

 

[the Rat]

But the whole approach to this project was doomed from the off.

If, say, you build a car then 1/ you first construct it as best you can, hoping it will all work fine but, realistically, expecting certain aspects to need adjusting, refining, tweaking, replacing, call it what you will. Crucially, 2/ you then spend a period of time testing and making adjustments as mentioned. Finally, when it's as good as it can be, 3/ you're ready to go live and so you do.

As far as the timetable is concerned, there was no way you could achieve step 2, which is rather important. So any risk assessments should have picked this up as a potential problem for a full roll-out and put forward a slow, incremental change, basically augmenting what was already there. Admittedly the final outcome might not have delivered all the benefits promised, but it would at least have been a robust model.

So now you have possibly the worst meltdown in recent railway history, staff morale at rock bottom, passenger confidence and satisfaction even lower and the inability to even return to the old timetables. For me that risk would have been just too great, but there were obviously some big egos at play.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Something similar did cross my mind, at least initially until the new timetable had bedded in - as you say, you'd achieve a large part of the TL ambition to reduce LU traffice but you'd also minimise delays but cutting the journey times to a more manageable length.

However I don't think the infrastructure at either STP or BFR is equipped to deal with terminating trains.

I don't think he meant terminate them, but do something like advertise them as "Thameslink via London St Pancras" and allocate to a departure past the core based on what time they actually arrive.

 

[the Rat]

I don't think he meant terminate them, but do something like advertise them as "Thameslink via London St Pancras" and allocate to a departure past the core based on what time they actually arrive.

Yeah, that would be even better.

 

[stut]

They must have very poor employers.

Or they are contractors.

Or the nature of their work is that it can't be done remotely.

Or the nature of their work is that it requires strict attendance at certain hours.

 

[stut]

It's not the fact it's gone wrong that angers me. It's the casual indifference that's gone with it. As soon as it became clear that the problem was a systemic one, a rollback of the timetable should have been the only option.

(The supposed lack of availablity of this option is in itself a major project failure.)

And now come the inevitable bare-faced lies. We've published an emergency timetable. We've moved into stable mode. It'll be fine by June.

This is affecting people's lives. I don't know what it'll take to cause people to take direct or drastic action, but I hope a) it's not the result of injury or death caused by crowding or b ) it's not directed towards frontline staff.

 

[Teflon Lettuce]

We've moved into stable mode. It'll be fine by June.

any particular June in mind

 

[stut]

any particular June in mind

It's called Railplan 2020, isn't it..?

 

[Agent_Squash]

It's not the fact it's gone wrong that angers me. It's the casual indifference that's gone with it. As soon as it became clear that the problem was a systemic one, a rollback of the timetable should have been the only option.

(The supposed lack of availablity of this option is in itself a major project failure.)

And now come the inevitable bare-faced lies. We've published an emergency timetable. We've moved into stable mode. It'll be fine by June.

This is affecting people's lives. I don't know what it'll take to cause people to take direct or drastic action, but I hope a) it's not the result of injury or death caused by crowding or b ) it's not directed towards frontline staff.

Rolling back the TL timetable would also involve rolling back the Southeastern, Southern, VTEC and EMT timetables. Why should they suffer, particularly Southern commuters who have had a more reliable service!

 

[stut]

Rolling back the TL timetable would also involve rolling back the Southeastern, Southern, VTEC and EMT timetables. Why should they suffer, particularly Southern commuters who have had a more reliable service!

If it is truly the case that the timetable cannot be rolled back, taking the balance of benefits into consideration (and I'm not in a position to tell either way, I just know the severity of the impact on the GN route) then you've got yourself a major project with no effective rollback.

OK.

So what do you do with that? Well, you have to be absolutely sure that everything is in place, is tested, that you have a tested contingency plan as an alternative. This is basic stuff.

 

[NorthKent1989]

Rolling back the TL timetable would also involve rolling back the Southeastern, Southern, VTEC and EMT timetables. Why should they suffer, particularly Southern commuters who have had a more reliable service!

If rolling back the timetable means putting an end to this shambles then so be it, you can’t be playing with People’s lives like this, roll back the timetable, it doesn’t have to be now it can be in a couple of months, Andy rethink some of the routes, it’s good Southern commuters are having good service if that’s the case but some stations have had very sporadic services since this begun

 

[158756]

In the grand scheme if things, once the timetable is fixed - even if it takes six months - I think most people will forget. Just like a flight from hell with loads of delays, but once you're home you feel relieved and forget about the pain suffered.

People probably won't remember the cause of the exact consequences of the problems in a few years, no. But they still remember the chaos caused by the WCRM or Hatfield, and people who don't regularly use the train will still not expect to be able to use a Thameslink train for a long time after the disruption ends.

 

[sjoh]

I don't think he meant terminate them, but do something like advertise them as "Thameslink via London St Pancras" and allocate to a departure past the core based on what time they actually arrive.

Yeah, but "This is the 09:15 Thameslink service via London St Pancras to... well, we're not quite sure yet, but we'll tell you when we get there" doesn't quite work in practice does it?

Alternatively, "This is the 09:15 Thameslink service to London St Pancras".
Cue: Arrival at St Pancras, everyone disembarks and then
"This is the 09:55 service to Horsham"
and a third of the passengers get back on the train.
Dwell times would be horrendous.

 

[Gerald Fiennes]

Missing 2 tph there for the Sutton loop , - could start in the Blackfriars Bay though

Never! Tried that trick once and Sarf London saw them off....

 

[Failed Unit]

Or they are contractors.

Or the nature of their work is that it can't be done remotely.

Or the nature of their work is that it requires strict attendance at certain hours.

I will also add to this. It is amazing the the poster whom you were responding to thinks it is the employers problem.

Let’s say for example you work at WGC. You start work at 0900. There is a train that arrives at 0822 in the timetable. You dont trust GTR. You leave 1 before just in case? They cancel it as well? They don’t upload the timetable until the same day.

You cant plan.
They cancel multiple trains so you can have significant gaps in the timetable (2 hours isn’t uncommon).
You need to drive.

But GTR is not the problem - the employer is?

What we want is the same train to be cancelled every day. So we know. Not as is the situation no idea what is running until you are stood on the platform.

 

[Robertj21a]

I will also add to this. It is amazing the the poster whom you were responding to thinks it is the employers problem.

Let’s say for example you work at WGC. You start work at 0900. There is a train that arrives at 0822 in the timetable. You dont trust GTR. You leave 1 before just in case? They cancel it as well? They don’t upload the timetable until the same day.

You cant plan.
They cancel multiple trains so you can have significant gaps in the timetable (2 hours isn’t uncommon).
You need to drive.

But GTR is not the problem - the employer is?

What we want is the same train to be cancelled every day. So we know. Not as is the situation no idea what is running until you are stood on the platform.

My comment was directed at the fact that they must have poor employers if they had sacked staff (as had been suggested) - despite them, presumably, having made every effort to get in to work on time, despite the train problems. I still feel that they are poor employers, can't you see that ?

 

[physics34]

It's not the fact it's gone wrong that angers me. It's the casual indifference that's gone with it. As soon as it became clear that the problem was a systemic one, a rollback of the timetable should have been the only option.

(The supposed lack of availablity of this option is in itself a major project failure.)

And now come the inevitable bare-faced lies. We've published an emergency timetable. We've moved into stable mode. It'll be fine by June.

This is affecting people's lives. I don't know what it'll take to cause people to take direct or drastic action, but I hope a) it's not the result of injury or death caused by crowding or b ) it's not directed towards frontline staff.

Have to second that. The PR department have and continue to be a disgrace.

Being bombarded with 'Railplan 20/20' announcements telling paasengers to 'make sure they are ready' for the fantastic new timetable..using celebrity voices... the continued use of publicity even now (theres a giant bunny thing at victoria on the concourse advertising Railplan 20/20). The continual apologising from recorded announcements that means absolutely nothing. Running some Southern services as 'thameslink' to improve figures.

Add to this the issues with the comfort of class 700s...its been a disaster.

An embarrassment all round.

 

[cactustwirly]

Rolling back the TL timetable would also involve rolling back the Southeastern, Southern, VTEC and EMT timetables. Why should they suffer, particularly Southern commuters who have had a more reliable service!

Actually rolling back the EMT would be beneficial to their passengers.

 

[Failed Unit]

My comment was directed at the fact that they must have poor employers if they had sacked staff (as had been suggested) - despite them, presumably, having made every effort to get in to work on time, despite the train problems. I still feel that they are poor employers, can't you see that ?

Acutally I can, this shambles has is only 3 weeks old, so I am amazed that people can get sacked this quickly without improvement plans put in place. (Although some people such as contractors will be removed a lot quicker if they are deemed to be unreliable). However no-one would be in this position is GTR had planned correctly. I don't buy this is network rails fault considering how little the final timetable has changed from the drafts in the consulation (bar removing stops and services which should make it easier to implement)

But I also struggle to see how this can be classed as teething problems. To me Teething problems is that the find that struggle to run a small % of the services, or the odd train is prone to delays. Monday 22nd May actaully wasn't that bad compared to Friday. The fact that GTR doesn't have a clue when they will be able to run the full timetable. Charles Horton was lying to passengers via the press when he said about 2 weeks to see improvements (it was teething problems). 3 Weeks in and we have to wait unti Mid-July before they can publish a timetable and they have no estimate of when the problem will be fixed suggests this isn't teething problems and GTR hasn't got a grip about if / when they can fix it. The fact that Charles Horton is constantly moving the goal posts proves he is either a lair or doesn't have a clue what is happening.

Some people think the timetable is flawed, I don't, but we have never had a chance to see it in service. I suspect it will collapse quickly with an kind of infrastructure failure put will probably work when it is good.

However at the moment we have closures of busy stations for many hours. The service is actually worse than at any point during the Hatfeild or Potters Bar incidents. With no timeline when we will actually have a clue what trains will run or not. Hardly teething troubles. Teething troubles can be fixed in a defined timeline. Not the current situation where no-one has a clue what to do next.

 

[Failed Unit]

Actually rolling back the EMT would be beneficial to their passengers.

Other ECML trains haven't moved that much either. Apart from better timekeeping as path through Finsbury Park are not blocked - I don't think VTEC / GC and HT would notice.

 

[the Rat]

The fact that Charles Horton is constantly moving the goal posts proves he is either a lair or doesn't have a clue what is happening.

I think it's both!!

 

[Robertj21a]

Acutally I can, this shambles has is only 3 weeks old, so I am amazed that people can get sacked this quickly without improvement plans put in place. (Although some people such as contractors will be removed a lot quicker if they are deemed to be unreliable). However no-one would be in this position is GTR had planned correctly. I don't buy this is network rails fault considering how little the final timetable has changed from the drafts in the consulation (bar removing stops and services which should make it easier to implement)

But I also struggle to see how this can be classed as teething problems. To me Teething problems is that the find that struggle to run a small % of the services, or the odd train is prone to delays. Monday 22nd May actaully wasn't that bad compared to Friday. The fact that GTR doesn't have a clue when they will be able to run the full timetable. Charles Horton was lying to passengers via the press when he said about 2 weeks to see improvements (it was teething problems). 3 Weeks in and we have to wait unti Mid-July before they can publish a timetable and they have no estimate of when the problem will be fixed suggests this isn't teething problems and GTR hasn't got a grip about if / when they can fix it. The fact that Charles Horton is constantly moving the goal posts proves he is either a lair or doesn't have a clue what is happening.

Some people think the timetable is flawed, I don't, but we have never had a chance to see it in service. I suspect it will collapse quickly with an kind of infrastructure failure put will probably work when it is good.

However at the moment we have closures of busy stations for many hours. The service is actually worse than at any point during the Hatfeild or Potters Bar incidents. With no timeline when we will actually have a clue what trains will run or not. Hardly teething troubles. Teething troubles can be fixed in a defined timeline. Not the current situation where no-one has a clue what to do next.

In any event, I'm always very wary of 'broad-brush' statements about people who have been sacked etc. It always seems to have been heard from a friend, who has an Aunt, and her next-door neighbour's sister in law heard about it while at the Co-op.....

 

[Failed Unit]

In any event, I'm always very wary of 'broad-brush' statements about people who have been sacked etc. It always seems to have been heard from a friend, who has an Aunt, and her next-door neighbour's sister in law heard about it while at the Co-op.....

So am I. All I know is since the timetable change I need to set of 1 hour earlier than I used to - just to stand a chance of arriving on time. Yes - I have suffered from multiple trains in a row getting cancelled as well which is why I am allowing the extra hour.

 

[NorthKent1989]

Never! Tried that trick once and Sarf London saw them off....

It was more the residents of leafy Wimbledon that threw their dolls out of the pram, my view is that they should curtail all Sutton loops at Blackfriars And transfer it to London Overground, it’s never been easier to change at Blackfriars it’s still in the city.

 

[Mutant Lemming]

In any event, I'm always very wary of 'broad-brush' statements about people who have been sacked etc. It always seems to have been heard from a friend, who has an Aunt, and her next-door neighbour's sister in law heard about it while at the Co-op.....

Longer term employees are usually afforded a degree of latitude in many areas - short term contract and temps, agency staff etc are not. However much a manager may sympathise (or even empathise if they are making a similar journey) the bottom line is you want people who can turn up for work day in day out on time. Do you honestly believe there are not thousands out there whose earning potential and future prospects have not been adversely affected by this? if you get out more am sure you will be able to find plenty of people who have lost out quite substantially - anything from having to book leave for the missing days to losing out on renewal of their short term contracts. There are plenty of people out there who have lost out to some degree if you look for them.

 

[mmh]

It was more the residents of leafy Wimbledon that threw their dolls out of the pram, my view is that they should curtail all Sutton loops at Blackfriars And transfer it to London Overground, it’s never been easier to change at Blackfriars it’s still in the city.

Completely agree - well, I don't know which operator it fits best with, I did think perhaps Southern but I don't think it really matters. Use whichever depot makes most sense and brand the route differently regardless of who's actually operating it.

The Thameslink brand doesn't make sense for trains that don't cross the Thames, so in theory the same thought should apply for services terminating at Kings Cross, but I think the plan there was that eventually none would?

 

[talldave]

Longer term employees are usually afforded a degree of latitude in many areas - short term contract and temps, agency staff etc are not. However much a manager may sympathise (or even empathise if they are making a similar journey) the bottom line is you want people who can turn up for work day in day out on time. Do you honestly believe there are not thousands out there whose earning potential and future prospects have not been adversely affected by this? if you get out more am sure you will be able to find plenty of people who have lost out quite substantially - anything from having to book leave for the missing days to losing out on renewal of their short term contracts. There are plenty of people out there who have lost out to some degree if you look for them.

I suspect there will be many with increased childcare costs. Who's going to compensate for that?

 

[Abpj17]

In any event, I'm always very wary of 'broad-brush' statements about people who have been sacked etc. It always seems to have been heard from a friend, who has an Aunt, and her next-door neighbour's sister in law heard about it while at the Co-op.....

There is real harm - this article http://www.hertsad.co.uk/news/mums-...hameful-state-of-thameslink-service-1-4816333 was from 18 months ago, guess how much worse it has got...
- Extra childcare costs
- Kids waiting at school gates
- Kids activities missed
- Reduced time with family overall
- Fired
- Resigned because the trains just don't make it possible to plan

It's not that it's suddenly got bad - in some cases, someone might already be on a final warning.

I've picked Harpenden because there are less frequent trains. But this would be a morning commuting experience

Date % Svc % Svc % Arrivals Perf. Score
Ran CANC/NR RT-5m late (max. 100)
Fri 08/06 84% 16% 81% 78.5
Thu 07/06 79% 21% 71% 70.8
Wed 06/06 86% 14% 76% 70.7
Tue 05/06 86% 14% 79% 74.7
Mon 04/06 71% 29% 57% 57.7
Fri 01/06 59% 41% 25% 32.8
Thu 31/05 73% 27% 64% 63.1
Wed 30/05 57% 43% 43% 47.1
Tue 29/05 70% 30% 64% 61.1
Mon 28/05 67% 33% 48% 50.0
Fri 25/05 77% 23% 55% 61.3
Thu 24/05 84% 16% 84% 78.5
Wed 23/05 87% 13% 81% 80.1
Tue 22/05 97% 3% 94% 87.6
Mon 21/05 81% 19% 81% 78.5
Fri 18/05 90% 10% 90% 87.5
Thu 17/05 88% 12% 88% 87.5
Wed 16/05 92% 8% 92% 91.2
Tue 15/05 85% 15% 75% 73.3
Mon 14/05 95% 5% 95% 94.7

 

[jon0844]

Have to second that. The PR department have and continue to be a disgrace.

Being bombarded with 'Railplan 20/20' announcements telling paasengers to 'make sure they are ready' for the fantastic new timetable..using celebrity voices... the continued use of publicity even now (theres a giant bunny thing at victoria on the concourse advertising Railplan 20/20). The continual apologising from recorded announcements that means absolutely nothing. Running some Southern services as 'thameslink' to improve figures.

Add to this the issues with the comfort of class 700s...its been a disaster.

An embarrassment all round.

What celebrity voices were used?