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Disruption to services - Storm Dudley & Storm Eunice

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43066

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You do realize some people might have no choice but to travel. People still have to get to work etc or they won't get paid. I know I'd love to work for a company that'd tell me not to come in in bad weather and still pay me but it's never going to happen. Have a think about that before you just blatantly accuse people of "ignoring" things.

But to be fair, if an employer is that mercenary, they’re also unlikely to pay you if you don’t turn up because you’re stranded on a train for several hours.

When this happened a few years ago with the Cambridge London daytrippers I mentioned upthread, because of the overcrowding some staff weren't able to board a train to take them in, so ended up turning round and going home. Divine justice would have the self-same daytrippers then stuck on a train with no one to help rescue them, I don't think that happened but many were stuck at King's Cross for the way home as I recall.

Some people do seem incapable of predicting potential consequences arising from their actions.

The discussion around weather events like this on here always follows the same predictable sequence:

1. Moaning when TOCs advise against travel, or pre emptively cancel trains.

Then either:

2a. The event turns out to be not as bad as forecast (in which case see 1 above); or​
2b. It’s as bad/worse (in which case see 3 below);​

3. Moaning when people who do travel despite the warnings end up stranded.
 
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CHAPS2034

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Additional incidents from Nat Rail Enquiries at 2100

Wolverhampton

Strong winds have damaged the roof at Wolverhampton station meaning some platforms are currently closed.

As a result of this, trains running through this station may be cancelled or delayed by up to 30 minutes due to congestion.

Birmingham Snow Hill - Whitlocks End

A tree is blocking the railway between Birmingham Snow Hill and Whitlocks End meaning some lines are currently blocked. Trains running between these stations may be delayed by up to 35 minutes or cancelled.

Birmingham New Street and Rugeley Trent Valley

Lines are now reopening following an object being caught in the overhead electric wires between Walsall and Rugeley Trent Valley. Trains may still be cancelled or revised.
 

bramling

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But to be fair, if an employer is that mercenary, they’re also unlikely to pay you if you don’t turn up because you’re stranded on a train for several hours.



The discussion around weather events like this on here always follows the same predictable sequence:

1. Moaning when TOCs advise against travel, or pre emptively cancel trains.

Then either:

2a. The event turns out to be not as bad as forecast (in which case see 1 above); or​
2b. It’s as bad/worse (in which case see 3 below);​

3. Moaning when people who do travel despite the warnings end up stranded.

Yes neither the rail industry nor the weather forecasters are ever going to win this one.

I’m just at London Bridge now. The Midland side of TL has gone down. Needless to say the staff are getting an enormous amount of grief. I suspect some locations on the GN side will be interesting as presumably the advice is for people to travel up this way and find a way of crossing over.
 
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Parallel

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There was disruption around Cardiff earlier as a train struck a trampoline on the line.

There is/has also been disruption in the Ferryside, and Parson Street areas this afternoon/evening too due to trees on the line.
 

43066

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Yes neither the rail industry nor the weather forecasters are ever going to win this one.

I’m just at London Bridge now. The Midland side of TL has gone down. Needless to say the staff are getting an enormous amount of grief. I suspect some locations on the GN side will be interesting as presumably the advice is for people to travel up this way and find a way of crossing over.

Hopefully en route to work rather than home as that will be tricky via the usual route…!

Best of luck.
 

bramling

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Hopefully en route to work rather than home as that will be tricky via the usual route…!

Best of luck.

The latter, unfortunately. The GN side is okay, south of Cambridge, but my train is now being delayed due to waiting for a driver. Release just been taken, which doesn’t bode well…

To be fair, I’ll be happy simply to get through to Saturday with a full roof of slates!
 

NoOnesFool

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These things are quite a pest any sign of wind and the blow off somewhere. I have lost count of the number of incidents I have read about caused by trampolines.

Who ends up picking up the bill for the havoc and damage they cause?
There would be very little (if any) damage to the train. It should be able to proceed over the trampoline until the whole train has cleared it and then Network Rail can retrieve it.
 

Darandio

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There's some large scale disruption and likely will be more on Friday sure . But it's not like other methods of transport like roads or ferries are going to go completely unscathed either . It's being billed as a once in a decade storm . I think it's right that it's potential impact is being carefully mitigated for .

Billing it as a once in a decade event probably won't do it justice. With the models now coming into close alignment so near to the event about just how severe this event is going to be, Eunice looks to be potentially catastrophic.
 

liamf656

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Photo showing the aforementioned tree at St Albans
 

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ChrisC

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When I looked this afternoon the BBC weather app was forecasting wind speeds for Friday afternoon of 67mph here in Nottinghamshire, 75mph over in Lincolnshire and 82mph in Norwich. I’ve just looked again and it is now saying 48mph for Nottinghamshire, 61mph Lincolnshire and 64mph for Norwich. Still strong winds but quite a bit less and not much worse than today. Hopefully the latest forecasts are correct.
 

800001

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There would be very little (if any) damage to the train. It should be able to proceed over the trampoline until the whole train has cleared it and then Network Rail can retrieve it.
Have you seen the trampoline? I’ve seen the picture and video of it, and if a train continued over that it would cause considerable damage to the train!!!
 

bramling

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When I looked this afternoon the BBC weather app was forecasting wind speeds for Friday afternoon of 67mph here in Nottinghamshire, 75mph over in Lincolnshire and 82mph in Norwich. I’ve just looked again and it is now saying 48mph for Nottinghamshire, 61mph Lincolnshire and 64mph for Norwich. Still strong winds but quite a bit less and not much worse than today. Hopefully the latest forecasts are correct.

Is anyone with specialist weather expertise able to offer an opinion as to how this will compare with other storms over the last decade or so?

The various models certainly don’t look good, but it’s hard to get a feel for how this will turn out on the ground.
 

LowLevel

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There would be very little (if any) damage to the train. It should be able to proceed over the trampoline until the whole train has cleared it and then Network Rail can retrieve it.
You're joking right? It's a metal frame with large springs and a sheet of thick material. Absolutely perfect for catching and ripping off electrical cables and air pipes. Anything spindly and metal (like say a shopping trolley) is a nightmare to hit with a train, not from blunt force damage but the havoc they wreak underneath.
 

Andy R. A.

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Looking back to January 1976 when a similar storm caused problems, from my personal records, and over a few days that followed.

 

Nicholas Lewis

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NR Scotland has tweeted a photo of severe damage to a OHLE structure at Kilwinning caused by a tree:

https://twitter.com/NetworkRailSCOT/status/1494052951681347585

View attachment 110311
Thats why the network need to be shut but quite frankly a tree of that size shouldn't be allowed to present such a threat to the infrastructure. If NR is really serious about network resilience any tree whoever land it is on should be removed preferably or reduced in size so it can't encroach upon the operational infrastructure if its blown over.
 
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Wivenswold

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Can I remind some of our newer members that the UK Railway industry is very proud of its safety record and taking precautionary steps in disruptive weather is a tangible evidence of how seriously passenger safety is taken.

If you want a more gung-ho approach, set the time machine for the 1950's and just hope you're not involved in one of the hundreds of collisions, derailments and other fatal incidents that happened each year on British Railways back in the "good old days".
 

dk1

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Can I remind some of our newer members that the UK Railway industry is very proud of its safety record and taking precautionary steps in disruptive weather is a tangible evidence of how seriously passenger safety is taken.

If you want a more gung-ho approach, set the time machine for the 1950's and just hope you're not involved in one of the hundreds of collisions, derailments and other fatal incidents that happened each year on British Railways back in the "good old days".
Haha totally agree. Some very odd comments indeed. Still it keeps us all talking & amused I suppose.
 

driverd

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I really find this a concerning precedent from Scotrail, to the extent I'm no longer planning to use the train for winter visits. It's simply too unreliable to be relied upon.

To add context: I work on the railway as a driver. I often visit Scotland for winter mountaineering (and am well aware of how exciting the Scottish weather can get). I've predominantly used the train for the last decade. I benefit from the substantial discounts rail staff receive.

I find this (repeated) approach to, what previously have been relatively commonplace winter weather warnings, troubling for two reasons.

1. Trains are being unnecessarily cancelled at very short notice
2. The way Scotrail are doing it means there is no obligation to keep customers moving

It means that my contribution (albeit discounted) to Scotrails farebox, will be gone. There must be many, many members of the public thinking the same thing, given the prices charged. The real kick in the teeth is the second point. At 24 hours notice, Scotrail can essentially say "not our problem mate", which is less than ideal, if I'm in Fort William and need to get back to Central England for a shift the following day, It's simply too unreliable to use the service.

I'd understand and sympathise with a forecast as is for Friday, but even then, I would argue some attempt at a service and an attempt to deliver for customers should be made. Failing this, TOCs should be obliged to deliver the conditions of carriage for those who have no choice but to travel - even if this is in terms of provision of a hotel for the night (as would be the case for an airline), even if notice is given.

Personally, I have, been working (yet again) in an amber warning area today. There was some disruption and some lines were closed, but for a good many customers, we delivered and enabled them to go about their lives. Interestingly, we don't even have blanket ESRs in my area this evening.

I understand some people would prefer a "no risk" approach, but if this is going to be the new normal, the railway needs to re-asses its obligations to it's customers, and, it's fundamental business ideals. Are we simply a luxury for the days it's convenient to run, or is our industry a national service that can be relied upon (or, atleast do the right thing by our customers when we can't)?

For the duration of my career so far, I've felt the later - perhaps I'm wrong.
 

ScotGG

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When I looked this afternoon the BBC weather app was forecasting wind speeds for Friday afternoon of 67mph here in Nottinghamshire, 75mph over in Lincolnshire and 82mph in Norwich. I’ve just looked again and it is now saying 48mph for Nottinghamshire, 61mph Lincolnshire and 64mph for Norwich. Still strong winds but quite a bit less and not much worse than today. Hopefully the latest forecasts are correct.
Never, ever trust weather apps.

Computer models and the Met Office forecasts are what is key, and they still show extremely poor conditions on Friday. Worst for a generation in many places.
 

jkkne

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Looking at the relative predicted chaos down towards the midlands and South, are these regions or even topography just not equipped/capable to deal with the extreme wind? Perhaps as it’s a fairly rare occurrence down South.

Arwen did it’s damage up here in Northumberland (after a slow start) and it’s been fairly brutal most of today but it didn’t seem as hysterical as the planned reaction for Friday. The same seems to happen with snow.
 

londonmidland

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When I looked this afternoon the BBC weather app was forecasting wind speeds for Friday afternoon of 67mph here in Nottinghamshire, 75mph over in Lincolnshire and 82mph in Norwich. I’ve just looked again and it is now saying 48mph for Nottinghamshire, 61mph Lincolnshire and 64mph for Norwich. Still strong winds but quite a bit less and not much worse than today. Hopefully the latest forecasts are correct.
BBC automated forecasts are useless when it comes to predicted gust speeds.

Please do not think it’ll be any less of a storm because of the speeds being downgraded on the BBC website. They only use one weather forecast model and are often behind on the latest predictions.

This will be a significant storm and there will be significant disruption likely.
 

Mcr Warrior

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Apologies of this is obvious, but what happens when the air pressure is 970?
Assuming 970mb is the expected air pressure on Friday, it's a good indication that there'll be a storm. The lower the air pressure, typically the stronger and windier the resulting storm force is. Reason is partly that the low pressure makes it easier for water vapour in the air to rise up and form clouds, thus making the atmosphere much more turbulent.

1013mb is the average figure, anything higher than that is considered "high pressure" and usually means the weather is more settled.

Highest ever reading in UK is 1053mb. Lowest is 925mb.
 

ScotGG

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Looking at the relative predicted chaos down towards the midlands and South, are these regions or even topography just not equipped/capable to deal with the extreme wind? Perhaps as it’s a fairly rare occurrence down South.

Arwen did it’s damage up here in Northumberland (after a slow start) and it’s been fairly brutal most of today but it didn’t seem as hysterical as the planned reaction for Friday. The same seems to happen with snow.
Today's storm was never forecast to be as bad as Fridays, nor cover such a wide area.

Friday's also covers more highly dense urban areas compared to most storms.

Friday's is potentially worse than any for 30 years. The same wind speeds in cities that sometimes hit isolated hills and mountains in remote areas is a whole different ballgame.
 

Class172

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Apologies of this is obvious, but what happens when the air pressure is 970?
A surface air pressure of 970mb doesn’t mean much by itself, it’s very much one of those situations where context is key. One factor that is contributing to the ferocity of these storms is the presence of a reasonably high pressure region over the south of Europe. It is the gradient in the pressure that is most important: that is to say the amount it varies between two different regions a given distance apart; what we relate to in meteorology as the pressure gradient force.
Never, ever trust weather apps.

Computer models and the Met Office forecasts are what is key, and they still show extremely poor conditions on Friday. Worst for a generation in many places.
An excellent weather website/app I would recommend is windy.com, which gives access to a number of reputable weather forecast models. If you like plenty of data it’s certainly worth a look.
 
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