You seem to think there's a load of pent up demand for people wanting to travel from Bedford to MK and vice versa - I don't believe that to be the case.
The users group seems to think there is as do us passengers. . That latent demand will only increase when the nearly 5000 homes get built between Newton Leys & Bow Brickhill ( it will essentially fill up the arc along the A4146/Brickhill lane) and further along the line.
In the 5 years I have used the line passenger numbers have gone up as houses have been built and business tempted to MK. The remaining limiting factor is the lack of a service to MK.
The Amazon warehouse at Ridgmont has completely changed the numbers using the train. It is very busy around shift change and at times the 153 struggles to cope.
The line is getting busier and those of us who are regulars think it could be even better with a bit of thought.
The A421 improvement wasn't to improve MK - Bedford connectivity, it was to improve Bedford - M1 connectivity.
The X5 doesn't go anywhere near the A421 interestingly - Stagecoach have decided it's still better to use the A422.
Indeed - but the A421 has made the journey to Bedford much easier. Once the last bt from the M1 to MK is sorted it will be a great road. I wonder if the X5 will switch then?
And even with electrification, you're unlikely to make the train journey match the X5 from MK to Bedford. The train takes 43 mins on average to do Bedford - Bletchley - at best, you might be able to take 10 mins out of that with electrification (the MK services will have to be the stoppers), but you then have a reversal at Bletchley and the journey from Bletchley to MK, so that's going to be 10 mins. So your back to almost 45 mins - same as the X5, except the X5 will also pick you up or drop you off in the town centre near the shops - which doesn't happen at either Bedford or MK.
While I would agree about the X5 the target for rail has to be commuters of which most will be going to office close to the station - that is the one part of MK the train IS good for - and those looking to connect into fast long distance services. There are much better northbound and faster southbound connections at MK
I would suggest People would prefer to use the train over the bus as the X5 isn't a busy bus route despite being good quality. However the change at Beltchley and the perceived unreliability of the chuggers puts them off. Journey time isn't really a factor. The key limiting factor is the change at Bletchley.
For a specific event - which attracted a lot of people where otherwise parking would have been an issue. Bedford ordinarily on a Saturday or Sunday attracts probably 10% of the numbers it did on the weekend.
You can't use a special event as the basis for an ongoing service. The Olympics was a case in point, there were various services laid on to support that, but they've not continued after the event ended.
The direct trains last weekend aren't the tool to justify a service. They merely show that a service is feasible - remember it was said it simply couldn't be done!