DfT latest 'most overcrowded' train list for Autumn 2013 released

[northwichcat]

As usual it only includes weekday services based on their loadings on arrival at major cities in the morning peak and loadings on departure from major cities in the evening peak.

The services are:
1. 16:46 service from London Euston to Crewe: load factor 211%
2. 07:32 service from Woking to London Waterloo: load factor 173%
3. 07:21 service from Oxford to London Paddington: load factor 173%
4. 18:33 service from London Paddington to Heathrow Airport: load factor 169%
5. 06:30 service from Manchester Airport to Middlesbrough: load factor 166%
6. 18:13 service from London Euston to Birmingham New Street: load factor 164%
7. 06:07 service from Banbury to London Paddington: load factor 157%
8. 06:30 service from Scarborough to Manchester Airport : load factor 156%
9. 06:28 service from Nottingham to St Pancras: load factor 155%
10. 07:00 service from Oxford to London Paddington: load factor 153%

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/train-operators-urged-to-tackle-overcrowding

The trains highlighted in green have received extra capacity since the statistics were recorded. The ones in blue will be addressed using additional carriages LM and SWT are receiving, the ones in red still need addressing.

The ones in grey retain the same number of carriages but DfT claim the problem has been addressed due to 5tph on North TPE. Comparing the TPE timetables what was the 06:10 Newcastle-Liverpool via Warrington service is now the 06:03 Newcastle-Liverpool via Victoria service, which now runs ahead of the 06:30 Scarborough-Manchester Airport instead of behind it so has the problem been solved, has it just been moved or could it have even been made worse? The 06:12 Liverpool-Newcastle via Victoria is an additional service which runs ahead of the 06:30 Manchester Airport-Middlesbrough service (which now runs 3 minutes later) so that may have solved the problem provided some Leeds passengers from Huddersfield have decided to travel earlier to avoid the busy service.

 

[WatcherZero]

Lot of disclaimers in the data!

PixC figures are a little disguised as they average the number of people in excess of capacity against the total capacity into the city, so two massivley overcrowded services and two nearly empty services would show no PixC crowding. Also really inconsistent way theyve applied crowding measures. Any people standing on a long distance service for over 20 minutes is crowding while crowding on commuter services is only if in excess of comfortable standing capacity (presume thats the 0.4 passengers per square metre metric?) Also first class seats arent counted as capacity but first class passengers are on services which provide first class. London Bridge station figures include Charing Street and Cannon Cross stations, Waterloo East is counted under London Bridge rather than Waterloo, Central London is defined as the first station encountered travelling into Zone 1 on all routes.

Skimming it some services had higher loadings but the highest proportional number standing on any service was TPE into Manchester which had over a third of passengers standing, some Black Friars and Waterloo services were close behind with high twenties. London Overground had 50% of passengers standing but then their stock was designed that way so not in excess of capacity.

All cities except London had slightly more passengers in the evening peak than morning peak but with more capacity as well. PixC in the regions last year rose 0.3% to 1.3% in morning and fell 0.1% to 0.8% in evening, most services generally got slighly more crowded. In London PixC net was morning peak 4% down 0.1% in evening 3.1% up 0.2% but there was much more variation behind the figures with swings of +/- 5% change in crowding at certain stations.

worst PixC in the regions during the morning was Sheffield 4% (explanatory note that this was due to low number of services and hence empty services to average against rather than particularly severe crowding), next was Manchester at 2.6%, Leeds was 1.6% falling 0.5% due to increased capacity. Largest increase was 0.8% increase in PixC at Leicester to 1.2%

In the afternoon worst was Leeds at 1.5% and Sheffield at 1.5%, Manchester was 0.7% falling 0.4% due to increase in capacity.

In London morning Blackfriars was 10.2% up 5.6% on the previous year while Paddington was 9.7% up 0.1%. Marleybone was 3.6% down 5.1%. In the afternoon worst was Paddington at 9.1% up 2.1%, next was Blackfriars at 6.7% up 3.7%, biggest fall was Marleybone at 2.4% down 2.7%.

 

[Taunton]

It would be interesting to know the number of vehicles provided on these services, compared to the maximum that can be run on the route. It's one thing if a 12-car into Waterloo is overcrowded. It's quite another if only a 4-car is provided for such a service.

I have encountered peak services at Sheffield run with a single car Class 153, where the waiting passengers did a huge bunfight because they knew from experience that those at the back wouldn't even be able to get in.

 

[Monty]

I can confirm that the 07:32 is diagrammed to be a 12-Car 450, the train is rammed after Walton-on-Thames. Other than running an additional relief service and encouraging customers to use that train I am not sure what else could be done to relieve the overcrowding on that service.

 

[swt_passenger]

It would be interesting to know the number of vehicles provided on these services, compared to the maximum that can be run on the route.

That info is provided in the information linked in the first post, if applicable, although in the case of SWT it just says the train is running at maximum length for the route, rather than giving the number i.e. 12 cars:

07:32 service from Woking to London Waterloo: load factor 173%
Capacity is based on seats only. Service has first class. This train and those adjacent to it are operating to maximum formation on this route.

 

[Taunton]

London Overground had 50% of passengers standing but then their stock was designed that way so not in excess of capacity.

I'm wondering where the London Overground services were measured because the report seems to concentrate on arrivals into major termini, and the only one of these they serve is the Watford DC Line into Euston, which must be about the least used of all LO services (especially inwards from Queens Park). Were the services along the North London Line, which can be difficult to board in the peak and where WAY more than 50% of the passengers are standing, even measured?

Likewise the Waterloo services are generally at their most crowded outward from Vauxhall and Clapham Jc; more passengers board than leave at both these stations on outward services. It's not like say Paddington where the high point is at the terminus.

 

[northwichcat]

Likewise the Waterloo services are generally at their most crowded outward from Vauxhall and Clapham Jc; more passengers board than leave at both these stations on outward services. It's not like say Paddington where the high point is at the terminus.

Yeah that's the thing. They don't include 'counter-peak' flows or include overcrowded arrivals in to smaller settlements - many of which have a less frequent service so not being able to board a train is a more serious issue as it could be an hour or more before the next service which you can board.

 

[fusionblue]

Is there a way to breakdown by TOC?

 

[northwichcat]

Is there a way to breakdown by TOC?

EDITED:
Technically yes: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploa...file/352514/rail-passengers-crowding-2013.zip and look at spreadsheet: rai0211.xls for London and rai0214.xls for other cities

However, note it only includes certain services for those operators and isn't representative of all their services.

 

[WatcherZero]

I'm wondering where the London Overground services were measured because the report seems to concentrate on arrivals into major termini, and the only one of these they serve is the Watford DC Line into Euston, which must be about the least used of all LO services (especially inwards from Queens Park). Were the services along the North London Line, which can be difficult to board in the peak and where WAY more than 50% of the passengers are standing, even measured?

Likewise the Waterloo services are generally at their most crowded outward from Vauxhall and Clapham Jc; more passengers board than leave at both these stations on outward services. It's not like say Paddington where the high point is at the terminus.

Small print says the figure taken is the highest loading achieved on the service not the loading upon arrival at the destination. Clapham Junction is outside zone 1 so not counted as a city centre station, Vauxhall it says its counting towards Waterloo as at Old Street (Moorgate) and Elephant and Castle (Blackfriars).

 

[swt_passenger]

Small print says the figure taken is the highest loading achieved on the service not the loading upon arrival at the destination.

Every six months or so, when these stats come out, someone always seems to make the same claim that they only concern the main terminus, and you are quite right that the detailed explanation proves otherwise, as it has done for a number of years previously.

For anyone who hasn't followed the links:

The passenger load figure is the count at the busiest point on the particular service. This can be an interchange point outside the city on the route concerned (e.g. Stratford or Ealing Broadway on approach to London) and does not always correspond to the terminal or city centre station.

 

[gazthomas]

Have they ever done Finsbury Park to Moorgate in the peak?!

 

[Rapidash]

I don't suppose there's any similar information about services down past Bristol is there? I'd be fascinated to see what the numbers are like on the 10:07 out of Paignton. Or the 1722 out of EXC or, uh any service during the summer.

 

[Taunton]

It's slightly ingenuous of the report to say that the 1833 Paddington to Heathrow is at "maximum length". It's a 5-car class 360, 20m long cars, with 340 seats. From 1960 to 1990 this route on the main line would have had 6-car Pressed Steel dmus, also 20m cars, which gave 460 seats, and on the busiest services a 7th single unit was tacked on which gave 525, which would have handled the bulk of the 169% load factor in the seats. All the platforms on the relief lines out to West Drayton were capable of handling 7-car sets, and of course the platforms on the new Heathrow branch are even longer.

More a case of "haven't obtained adequate rolling stock" I believe.

Every six months or so, when these stats come out, someone always seems to make the same claim that they only concern the main terminus, and you are quite right that the detailed explanation proves otherwise, as it has done for a number of years previously.

You slightly misunderstand my point, for although services into a main station may well be measured to an intermediate point as described, I don't see that services which do not operate into, or through, a major terminal at all (like the North London Line) are being measured. The text of the report seems to bear this out by only referring to the DC Line service into Euston when considering London Overground, which I find the least busy of Overground services.

 

[Class 170101]

I wonder when the 16:46 Euston to Crewe was last measured. I thought this train had been an eight car since December 2013 Timetable change.

 

[Greeby]

1646 Euston to Crewe was indeed horrendous at the time, as it was four coaches. I went on it once during that period and swore "never again". Since then it's been bumped up to eight coaches and there's plenty of room. Even changing the restrictions to make off-peak tickets to Milton Keynes valid on it hasn't changed that. As most of the off-peak travellers for MK dive on the 16:43 to Edinburgh.

 

[DownSouth]

… while crowding on commuter services is only if in excess of comfortable standing capacity (presume thats the 0.4 passengers per square metre metric?)

Wouldn't that be 0.4 square metres per passenger, not the other way around?

If passengers arranged themselves in neat columns and rows, 0.4 passengers per square metre would leave you with a ridiculously wide spacing of 1.58 metres between each passenger - so wide that you would be technically crowded if you had two people side-by-side in even the 3.1 metre wide Surfliner cars in California, let alone on toy loading gauge stock in the UK.

0.4 square metres for every passenger would be a far more reasonable 0.63 metres between each passenger.

 

[455driver]

It's slightly ingenuous of the report to say that the 1833 Paddington to Heathrow is at "maximum length". It's a 5-car class 360, 20m long cars, with 340 seats. From 1960 to 1990 this route on the main line would have had 6-car Pressed Steel dmus, also 20m cars, which gave 460 seats, and on the busiest services a 7th single unit was tacked on which gave 525, which would have handled the bulk of the 169% load factor in the seats. All the platforms on the relief lines out to West Drayton were capable of handling 7-car sets, and of course the platforms on the new Heathrow branch are even longer.

More a case of "haven't obtained adequate rolling stock" I believe.

Heathrow Connect run 5 coach 360s on the route so it is the maximum for the route because the only other thing they could do would be to double it up to 10 coaches which wont fit, or are you suggesting they order some 2 coach trains to make them up to 7 coach trains.

Instead of saying why things are wrong why dont you post some viable fixes!

 

[nw1]

Heathrow Connect run 5 coach 360s on the route so it is the maximum for the route because the only other thing they could do would be to double it up to 10 coaches which wont fit, or are you suggesting they order some 2 coach trains to make them up to 7 coach trains.

Instead of saying why things are wrong why dont you post some viable fixes!

Longer trains are a viable fix, if only the government could be bothered to spend money on it. Sadly, with the current lot in politics I can't see that happening...

 

[455driver]

Longer trains are a viable fix, if only the government could be bothered to spend money on it. Sadly, with the current lot in politics I can't see that happening...

yeah the other lot were soooooo much better weren't they! :roll:

 

[Clip]

Longer trains are a viable fix, if only the government could be bothered to spend money on it. Sadly, with the current lot in politics I can't see that happening...

But HEx and Connect are owned by BAA arent they? So shouldnt it be them who take on the task. And as 455 said - they wont fit. So how much work needs to be done and at what cost?

 

[northwichcat]

But HEx and Connect are owned by BAA arent they? So shouldnt it be them who take on the task. And as 455 said - they wont fit. So how much work needs to be done and at what cost?

BAA no longer exist. Heathrow Connect is a joint venture between Heathrow Express (owned by Heathrow Airport Holdings Limited) and First Great Western.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Heathrow Connect is partly FGW, because it ended up taking some paths (and some franchise commitments) from FGW.

Even if the train was a Turbo it probably wouldn't have more than five carriages. I'm not sure what else can be done, I also expect it is only that busy for the seven minutes it takes to get to Ealing Broadway.

 

[hassaanhc]

Heathrow Connect is partly FGW, because it ended up taking some paths (and some franchise commitments) from FGW.

Even if the train was a Turbo it probably wouldn't have more than five carriages. I'm not sure what else can be done, I also expect it is only that busy for the seven minutes it takes to get to Ealing Broadway.

You can fit a 6.165/166 at roughly 140m into the platforms (although Hanwell might be dodgy).
As for your last point, I reckon that is true. They always get wedged between Ealing and Southall after the people leave the Central Line. You can depart Paddington with space available and as soon as you reach Ealing Broadway then bam, it gets crowded until Southall (especially the front coaches as the exits on both stations are right at the front). Even worse is the lack of mirror and cctv monitors at Southall P3, the country-bound platform, so the driver has to stick their head out and look through the crowd.

 

[evergreenadam]

Lot of disclaimers in the data!

PixC figures are a little disguised as they average the number of people in excess of capacity against the total capacity into the city, so two massivley overcrowded services and two nearly empty services would show no PixC crowding. Also really inconsistent way theyve applied crowding measures. Any people standing on a long distance service for over 20 minutes is crowding while crowding on commuter services is only if in excess of comfortable standing capacity (presume thats the 0.4 passengers per square metre metric?) Also first class seats arent counted as capacity but first class passengers are on services which provide first class. London Bridge station figures include Charing Street and Cannon Cross stations, Waterloo East is counted under London Bridge rather than Waterloo, Central London is defined as the first station encountered travelling into Zone 1 on all routes.

Skimming it some services had higher loadings but the highest proportional number standing on any service was TPE into Manchester which had over a third of passengers standing, some Black Friars and Waterloo services were close behind with high twenties. London Overground had 50% of passengers standing but then their stock was designed that way so not in excess of capacity.

All cities except London had slightly more passengers in the evening peak than morning peak but with more capacity as well. PixC in the regions last year rose 0.3% to 1.3% in morning and fell 0.1% to 0.8% in evening, most services generally got slighly more crowded. In London PixC net was morning peak 4% down 0.1% in evening 3.1% up 0.2% but there was much more variation behind the figures with swings of +/- 5% change in crowding at certain stations.

worst PixC in the regions during the morning was Sheffield 4% (explanatory note that this was due to low number of services and hence empty services to average against rather than particularly severe crowding), next was Manchester at 2.6%, Leeds was 1.6% falling 0.5% due to increased capacity. Largest increase was 0.8% increase in PixC at Leicester to 1.2%

In the afternoon worst was Leeds at 1.5% and Sheffield at 1.5%, Manchester was 0.7% falling 0.4% due to increase in capacity.

In London morning Blackfriars was 10.2% up 5.6% on the previous year while Paddington was 9.7% up 0.1%. Marleybone was 3.6% down 5.1%. In the afternoon worst was Paddington at 9.1% up 2.1%, next was Blackfriars at 6.7% up 3.7%, biggest fall was Marleybone at 2.4% down 2.7%.

In terms of demand many of the busiest termini saw little or no growth in passenger numbers in the morning peak in the last year which has helped to keep overcrowding down eg. Liverpool Street, CHX/CST/London Bridge, Victoria and Waterloo/Vauxhall.

Fenchurch Street has seen a decline in passenger demand in the morning peak, perhaps due to increased employment in Docklands and passengers leaving the train earlier at West Ham and Limehouse but an increase in overcrowding! Perhaps the morning peak has become more concentrated into the high peak or there are different peaks for City/Docklands and West End/South Bank passengers which are harder to manage, which would help to explain the extra rolling stock recently announced with the new franchise.

Moorgate/Old Street has shown a significant decline in passenger demand, perhaps because more passengers are transfering to the Overground/Tube at Highbury & Islington instead of continuing to the City.

Interesting that over the last few years passenger demand in the morning peak has risen fastest at St Pancras, Euston and Blackfriars via E&C. These routes have seen improved services (HS1 Javelin) or new rolling stock (London Midland) or an increase in employment around the terminus (St Pancras and Blackfriars - opening of new southern entrance) in recent years.

 

[43021HST]

4. 18:33 service from London Paddington to Heathrow Airport: load factor 169%

That does surprise me, the Heathrow Trains always look to be almost empty!

 

[hassaanhc]

That does surprise me, the Heathrow Trains always look to be almost empty!

Between Ealing and Southall (this direction only) they can get busy. Especially as outside the peaks it is the first train to Southall for 20 minutes. But I still think they're not as busy as this survey suggests :?

 

[dannypye9999]

I guess the 16:46 wont be as full now since this has been revealed. Everyone will be avoiding this service so if im right then it will soon be chopped back to a four car.

 

[dk1]

In terms of demand many of the busiest termini saw little or no growth in passenger numbers in the morning peak in the last year which has helped to keep overcrowding down eg. Liverpool Street, CHX/CST/London Bridge, Victoria and Waterloo/Vauxhall.

Fenchurch Street has seen a decline in passenger demand in the morning peak, perhaps due to increased employment in Docklands and passengers leaving the train earlier at West Ham and Limehouse but an increase in overcrowding! Perhaps the morning peak has become more concentrated into the high peak or there are different peaks for City/Docklands and West End/South Bank passengers which are harder to manage, which would help to explain the extra rolling stock recently announced with the new franchise.

Now I'm only going by Wikipedia but Fenchurch St is only slightly down whereas Liverpool Street had surpassed the giddy heights of 2008 by over a million last year with well over 58 million. One example is the 05.30 ex-Norwich. For some reason this train had spare capacity but conductors are reporting very heavy loadings once again. My observations of other services & stations are that they are becoming very busy indeed.

 

[paul1609]

In terms of demand many of the busiest termini saw little or no growth in passenger numbers in the morning peak in the last year which has helped to keep overcrowding down eg. Liverpool Street, CHX/CST/London Bridge, Victoria and Waterloo/Vauxhall.

Fenchurch Street has seen a decline in passenger demand in the morning peak, perhaps due to increased employment in Docklands and passengers leaving the train earlier at West Ham and Limehouse but an increase in overcrowding! Perhaps the morning peak has become more concentrated into the high peak or there are different peaks for City/Docklands and West End/South Bank passengers which are harder to manage, which would help to explain the extra rolling stock recently announced with the new franchise.

Moorgate/Old Street has shown a significant decline in passenger demand, perhaps because more passengers are transfering to the Overground/Tube at Highbury & Islington instead of continuing to the City.

Interesting that over the last few years passenger demand in the morning peak has risen fastest at St Pancras, Euston and Blackfriars via E&C. These routes have seen improved services (HS1 Javelin) or new rolling stock (London Midland) or an increase in employment around the terminus (St Pancras and Blackfriars - opening of new southern entrance) in recent years.

A lot of Kent Passengers now travel to St Pancras or Stratford international rather than London Bridge/ Cannon Street/Waterloo east and Charing Cross. Even as far east as Headcorn the 442 space car park that would have been rammed prior to HS1 is now rarely half full.