Dawlish sea wall collapse

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Despite all our gained knowledge of coastline protection, Nature has now shown that if we take its strength too casually, we will certainly pay the price.

 

[jmc100]

More damage to the sea wall and repair time extended. This is getting really serious as far as the south-west economies are concerned. I think we, as a country, have to start thinking many years in advance and planning accordingly. The amount of money required to secure rail resilience in the Dawlish region is peanuts compared to some other civil engineering projects. In the short term, maybe the reopening of the Dartmoor route could be achieved as a relief route for inter-city services should anything further happen along the length of the Dawlish sea wall. In the long term, a tunnel under Halden is the only answer that would provide for high-speed operations between Exeter and Newton Abbott - electrified of course.

These are only my opinions, but what would you advise to counter the problem in the short term?

 

[YorkshireBear]

More damage to the sea wall and repair time extended. This is getting really serious as far as the south-west economies are concerned. I think we, as a country, have to start thinking many years in advance and planning accordingly. The amount of money required to secure rail resilience in the Dawlish region is peanuts compared to some other civil engineering projects. In the short term, maybe the reopening of the Dartmoor route could be achieved as a relief route for inter-city services should anything further happen along the length of the Dawlish sea wall. In the long term, a tunnel under Halden is the only answer that would provide for high-speed operations between Exeter and Newton Abbott - electrified of course.

These are only my opinions, but what would you advise to counter the problem in the short term?

5 years? There is however another thread for this.

http://www.railforums.co.uk/showthread.php?p=1711325#post1711325

 

[jmc100]

YorkshireBear, Sorry about that.

I will post it in the other thread. Thanks for letting me know.

 

[LateThanNever]

More damage to the sea wall and repair time extended. This is getting really serious as far as the south-west economies are concerned. I think we, as a country, have to start thinking many years in advance and planning accordingly. The amount of money required to secure rail resilience in the Dawlish region is peanuts compared to some other civil engineering projects. In the short term, maybe the reopening of the Dartmoor route could be achieved as a relief route for inter-city services should anything further happen along the length of the Dawlish sea wall. In the long term, a tunnel under Halden is the only answer that would provide for high-speed operations between Exeter and Newton Abbott - electrified of course.

These are only my opinions, but what would you advise to counter the problem in the short term?

All a bit of a disaster for the railway and rail travel really. I agree the Okehampton route would provide a cheap 'sticking plaster' alternative at the very least for the 0.75million people of Plymouth and Cornwall and then it is probably a question of how long the repaired Dawlish line survives.
And on the general subject if, as they now think, there will be no rail service till Easter where on earth do all the buses and bus drivers come from ? - there must be considerable spare capacity in the business.

And what do all the rail staff do when there are no/many less/fewer trains to crew?

 

[meridian2]

What's even more of a travesty is that once these repairs have been completed, once the weather has calmed down, all this talk of 'contingency plans' for alternate routes will go out of the window and be buried and forgotten about. So long as the land within the M25 belt is there, nobody cares a jot beyond it, and I really feel for the local businesses affected by the damage to the sea wall, and for the fact their voices are almost always lost.
We have to start taking extreme weather like this seriously. We cannot afford to sit back after these repairs have been completed and be complacent about forthcoming winters, living on the seriously misguided hope that this is going to be a 'one-off'. But, believe me, nothing will get done once this has all 'blown over', so to speak. It's all about prioritisation, and sadly, invariably, the local businesses throughout the West Country are at the bottom of the pecking order. We've seen it before in 2004 in Boscastle, all the businesses there affected by the 'freak' weather were suddenly thrust into the limelight and, the public saw it with their own eyes, just how 'abandoned' they felt by both local councils and central government. That was declared a 'freak' event, nothing will ever be like that in the forthcoming years, so we were told by the so-called experts. But then, 3 years later, 2007. Tewkesbury, Purley-on-Thames, to name a few places, affected by the same event declared years previous as a 'once-in-a-lifetime' event and the same cycle starts all over again. It really is so sad, so very very sad.

 

[YorkshireBear]

What's even more of a travesty is that once these repairs have been completed, once the weather has calmed down, all this talk of 'contingency plans' for alternate routes will go out of the window and be buried and forgotten about. So long as the land within the M25 belt is there, nobody cares a jot beyond it, and I really feel for the local businesses affected by the damage to the sea wall, and for the fact their voices are almost always lost.
We have to start taking extreme weather like this seriously. We cannot afford to sit back after these repairs have been completed and be complacent about forthcoming winters, living on the seriously misguided hope that this is going to be a 'one-off'. But, believe me, nothing will get done once this has all 'blown over', so to speak. It's all about prioritisation, and sadly, invariably, the local businesses throughout the West Country are at the bottom of the pecking order. We've seen it before in 2004 in Boscastle, all the businesses there affected by the 'freak' weather were suddenly thrust into the limelight and, the public saw it with their own eyes, just how 'abandoned' they felt by both local councils and central government. That was declared a 'freak' event, nothing will ever be like that in the forthcoming years, so we were told by the so-called experts. But then, 3 years later, 2007. Tewkesbury, Purley-on-Thames, to name a few places, affected by the same event declared years previous as a 'once-in-a-lifetime' event and the same cycle starts all over again. It really is so sad, so very very sad.

While true i would like to say Boscastle and Tewkesbury (as well as the whole of Yorkshire and other areas) were both very different events... So the same freak event did not happen so they were correct.

The Tewkesbury etc event was not freak but the Boscastle one was, very freak.

The rest is still true though :P It is the same in the North of England. I was will visiting the south west twice in coming months. Only help i can offer is to spend my money there with local businesses but still...

 

[Graiser]

This from Network Rail

http://www.networkrail.co.uk/timetables-and-travel/storm-damage/dawlish/

Quote "Further sections of the old sea wall are destroyed as well as a lesser secondary breach closer to Dawlish Warren."
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Reopening of the main Dawlish rail line delayed after storm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-26224257
Network Rail now say another one or two weeks will be added to the original six week repair timeline IF there is no further damage. Their words not mine.

Latest is March 27

 

[yorksrob]

But, believe me, nothing will get done once this has all 'blown over', so to speak. It's all about prioritisation, and sadly, invariably, the local businesses throughout the West Country are at the bottom of the pecking order. We've seen it before in 2004 in Boscastle, all the businesses there affected by the 'freak' weather were suddenly thrust into the limelight and, the public saw it with their own eyes, just how 'abandoned' they felt by both local councils and central government. That was declared a 'freak' event, nothing will ever be like that in the forthcoming years, so we were told by the so-called experts. But then, 3 years later, 2007. Tewkesbury, Purley-on-Thames, to name a few places, affected by the same event declared years previous as a 'once-in-a-lifetime' event and the same cycle starts all over again. It really is so sad, so very very sad.

On the plus side, I saw some coverage of a town somewhere badly affected by floods six years ago (Worcester I think) which had had some flood barriers installed since which were doing their job, so occasionally something gets done.

There are other good reasons to improve transport in the South West. Hopefully this will be the nudge that finally gets something done.

 

[Cletus]

Has the webcam moved? It seems a lot clearer too.
http://www.siteeyelive.com/monitor/bbcdawlish/camputerb86.jpg

 

[IanXC]

On the plus side, I saw some coverage of a town somewhere badly affected by floods six years ago (Worcester I think) which had had some flood barriers installed since which were doing their job, so occasionally something gets done.

I'm not sure a massive amount has been done in Worcester - the topography means the immediate river bank is at a much lower level than the surrounding area. Was it Bewdley by any chance? They've had a huge scheme.

 

[yorksrob]

I'm not sure a massive amount has been done in Worcester - the topography means the immediate river bank is at a much lower level than the surrounding area. Was it Bewdley by any chance? They've had a huge scheme.

I'm afraid I can't remember exactly. Somewhere down that way.

 

[YorkshireBear]

Has the webcam moved? It seems a lot clearer too.
http://www.siteeyelive.com/monitor/bbcdawlish/camputerb86.jpg

They just cleared lense of water.

 

[daikilo]

They just cleared lense of water.

I'd say there is one at each end and bravo to NR for the initiative. Not sure the guys on the ground/in the water are too happy to have big brother looking over their shoulder, but seeing people on the ground at most any hours except max tide is the message "we are working round the clock". Initiative award for whoever thought of the containers.

 

[boing_uk]

Must admit my jaw did drop slightly at the condition of those shipping containers, torn to bits.

 

[Darandio]

Must admit my jaw did drop slightly at the condition of those shipping containers, torn to bits.

I'd say they have held up quite well, considering.

The fact that they purposely had holes cut in the top does also make them look much worse off than they are.

 

[infobleep]

Although hard for the people affected, is it cheaper for the country to follow nothing regarding these weather events.

Morally I'd say not but what about financially? Does the cost of implementing schemes outweigh the cost of dealing with the aftermath everytime? I don't know the figures on either side your have an opinion.

Sent from my HUAWEI U8815 using Tapatalk

 

[Taunton]

Regarding the Okehampton line :

In my experience Newton Abbot and Torbay provide about half the total passenger traffic along here, Plymouth and Cornwall the other half. Okehampton does nothing for this.

About 10 years ago (early Network Rail days) there was a big and expensive scheme along here, meant to fix things once and for all. Since then there seem to have been actually more closures and disruption than at any time previously. I thought the original idea was to install slab track, but it ended up as just regular ballast, which therefore continues to get washed away.

 

[D1009]

I'm not sure a massive amount has been done in Worcester - the topography means the immediate river bank is at a much lower level than the surrounding area. Was it Bewdley by any chance? They've had a huge scheme.

I'm sure it was Bewdley, but inland river flooding is hardly comparable with the situation at Dawlish.

 

[Goatboy]

What's even more of a travesty is that once these repairs have been completed, once the weather has calmed down, all this talk of 'contingency plans' for alternate routes will go out of the window and be buried and forgotten about.

Isn't that fair and just though? At the moment most of the hysteria around Dawlish is knee-jerk. Dawlish does not fall into the sea on a yearly basis. It doesn't even fall into the sea on a decadely basis. It last fell into the sea in 1855.

It's currently the 'in thing' to suggest what we really need to do is spend millions and millions on a ridiculous diversion route that goes nowhere near the major population centres and adds huge time to journeys.

I just got back from London - the Rail Replacement bus from Tiverton was a nuisance but added 15 minutes to my journey. Thats it. 15 minutes. I would probably still be sat on the train now had it operated over a diversionary route via Okehampton.

The diversion route is a lovely pipe dream for rail enthusiasts and soundbite grabbing politicians and media but frankly thats all it is.

Get Dawlish fixed, then itll be business as usual.

 

[moggie]

Isn't that fair and just though? At the moment most of the hysteria around Dawlish is knee-jerk. Dawlish does not fall into the sea on a yearly basis. It doesn't even fall into the sea on a decadely basis. It last fell into the sea in 1855.

It's currently the 'in thing' to suggest what we really need to do is spend millions and millions on a ridiculous diversion route that goes nowhere near the major population centres and adds huge time to journeys.

I just got back from London - the Rail Replacement bus from Tiverton was a nuisance but added 15 minutes to my journey. Thats it. 15 minutes. I would probably still be sat on the train now had it operated over a diversionary route via Okehampton.

The diversion route is a lovely pipe dream for rail enthusiasts and soundbite grabbing politicians and media but frankly thats all it is.

Get Dawlish fixed, then itll be business as usual.

So the claimed £100M+ damage to the South West economy due to the loss of the rail link is just hysterical nonsense then is it?
How can YOU be so certain the same won't be repeated next year, or the year after or is hope eternal enough?

While it is very easy to be cynical towards our elected representatives I've got a feeling that this winters events have shifted opinion in government towards doing something. The clear up of the mess not only at Dawlish but elsewhere around the country will serve as a constant reminder of these dark days and with an election on the horizon we all know how a politician likes to make a promise, whatever that is worth?

 

[Goatboy]

So the claimed £100M+ damage to the South West economy due to the loss of the rail link is just hysterical nonsense then is it?

Nobody seems to be able to quantify these numbers. They change in every media article. So, probably, yes. Exactly where is the £100m being lost from in a wet February?

How can YOU be so certain the same won't be repeated next year, or the year after or is hope eternal enough?

Nobody can be certain but given it's happened once in the last 150 years the odds of it not happening again for quite some time far outweight the odds of it becoming a regular occurance. Odds which won't do much for the business case of spending millions and millions on a diversion route.

 

[meridian2]

Isn't that fair and just though? At the moment most of the hysteria around Dawlish is knee-jerk. Dawlish does not fall into the sea on a yearly basis. It doesn't even fall into the sea on a decadely basis. It last fell into the sea in 1855.

You see, it's exactly that sort of attitude which has led to bitter remonstrating by people who are rightly annoyed, if not angry, than nothing was done to adequately prepare or protect them from floods. People who were so self-assured in their beliefs that this weather wasn't going to happen again. What you belittle as 'hysteria' is a natural reaction to the lack of preparation from floods. As for 'fair and just', exactly what part of this is this supposed to be so unfair and unjust and on whom? Those living within the M25 belt perhaps, forcing to spend money on a route so far away and meaningless to them?

 

[HSTEd]

You see, it's exactly that sort of attitude which has led to bitter remonstrating by people who are rightly annoyed, if not angry, than nothing was done to adequately prepare or protect them from floods. People who were so self-assured in their beliefs that this weather wasn't going to happen again. What you belittle as 'hysteria' is a natural reaction to the lack of preparation from floods. As for 'fair and just', exactly what part of this is this supposed to be so unfair and unjust and on whom? Those living within the M25 belt perhaps, forcing to spend money on a route so far away and meaningless to them?

We have geological records that indicate a large tsunami several metres in height struck the British Isles in the historical past.
Does that mean we should construct enormous infrastructure to protect against such waves on the off chance one might happen again?

Dawlish was hit by the worst storms since 1989, it is highly unlikely that such storms will appear again in the near future, there is no information to suggest otherwise.

 

[yorksrob]

We have geological records that indicate a large tsunami several metres in height struck the British Isles in the historical past.
Does that mean we should construct enormous infrastructure to protect against such waves on the off chance one might happen again?

Dawlish was hit by the worst storms since 1989, it is highly unlikely that such storms will appear again in the near future, there is no information to suggest otherwise.

The fact that these were the worst storms "since 1989" which, as far as I can remember doesn't qualify as pre history by any stretch of the imagination, suggests that a tsunami isn't really a meaningful comparison.

 

[HSTEd]

The fact that these were the worst storms "since 1989" which, as far as I can remember doesn't qualify as pre history by any stretch of the imagination, suggests that a tsunami isn't really a meaningful comparison.

Well it is a meaningful comparison - since Dawlish didn't fall into the sea then.
In fact as far as I know this level of damage is essentially unprecedented.

One tsunami struck in the past, just as Dawlish has only collapsed like this once.
We have insufficient data to predict (at all) when it will happen again.

 

[yorksrob]

Nobody seems to be able to quantify these numbers. They change in every media article. So, probably, yes. Exactly where is the £100m being lost from in a wet February?



Nobody can be certain but given it's happened once in the last 150 years the odds of it not happening again for quite some time far outweight the odds of it becoming a regular occurance. Odds which won't do much for the business case of spending millions and millions on a diversion route.

Disruptive storm events at Dawlish are a recurring event within living memory. It is not hysteria by any stretch of the imagination to suggest that infrastructure in Devon has been neglected over the decades, not just in terms of resilience. If you want something to shave, some of the many road widening projects recently announced in the chancellors infrastructure plan, costing hundreds of millions of pounds each could be re-assessed.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Well it is a meaningful comparison - since Dawlish didn't fall into the sea then.
In fact as far as I know this level of damage is essentially unprecedented.

One tsunami struck in the past, just as Dawlish has only collapsed like this once.
We have insufficient data to predict (at all) when it will happen again.

I‘m afraid I don‘t really see how an extremely rare (in our neck of the woods) one-off geological occurence which would be related to earthquakes or the sort of catastrophic land slips whose frequency can only be measured in geological time, can be remotely comparable to weather conditions that have managed to close the Dawlish route several times since its opening, some in living memory.

 

[starrymarkb]

I remember a prolonged closure (2 weeks) following a smaller breach in about 2004ish? As a result I had to abandon a rather expensive NSFW party ticket. Then it was fast coach from Tiverton to Plymouth, but Exeter to Plymouth was a 2.5 hour all stations bus service only (run by Wessex)! While it would have been quicker to go Exmouth-Tiverton-Plymouth I was told that would not be permitted with my ticket.

It looks like FGW have much improved their bus provision in that respect.

 

[DXMachina]

At risk of appearing odd for not posting an angry message, may I announce the happy news that someone's cleaned the lens of the dawlish updating webcam and we can now watch the work again?

 

[meridian2]

We have geological records that indicate a large tsunami several metres in height struck the British Isles in the historical past.
Does that mean we should construct enormous infrastructure to protect against such waves on the off chance one might happen again?

Dawlish was hit by the worst storms since 1989, it is highly unlikely that such storms will appear again in the near future, there is no information to suggest otherwise.

Cockermouth was built a million pound flood defense barrier after its floods in 2009 and so far hasn't flooded again to the same extent. That's probably 'highly unlikely' to happen again but it didn't stop them spending.
The point is that local businesses need to have some assurance it won't happen again and the best way is protection. You can't predict it won't happen again in the near future, neither can I say it will happen again. Spending money in the short-term for the benefit of the long-term is surely better for all concerned, despite one person on here saying it'll neither be 'just' nor 'fair'.