Cuts, cuts, cuts

[shinkansen1966]

Goverment finances are in a mess. At the moment, more than a quarter of all public money spent is money borrowed from financial institutions. So expect announcments on spending cuts between June and November of this year. It's easier to cancel a new rail scheme than close a school. So let's have a guess on what will be cut. I'll got first with my suggestions.

Inter City Express programme. £7bn worth of new high speed electric and diesel trains. Preferred bidder selected. Already to sign. But, govt now "reviewing" programme to see if taxpayer getting value for money. Expect to see this project of new trains quietely dropped after general election.

Manchester - Preston - Blackpool electrification. Thoroughly worthy but regional electrification programme *. Will use electric trains cascaded from Thameslink programme. But new stock needed for Thameslink programme delayed (see below). If the project is cancelled, spares the embarrassment of clapped out pacers and sprinters running under wires because there's no 319s.

First Great Western electrification. Same as above. But serves voter sensitive Berkshire and Oxfordshire commuterland. So a tricky one for London-centric politicians. Expect to see wires out to Reading and Oxford, but the remainder of the scheme "reviewed" and then shelved.

Thameslink programme. Ambitious plan to upgrade over worked stretch of track linking Midland Main Line and pretty much all points south of the Thames. Project underway, new trains ordered and impressive array of new destinations. Already delayed untill December 2016. Why not delay more and spread the cost. Or shelve any plans to extend Thameslink network. Then you can cut down on the order of expensive new trains.

Add any other projects below. Then suggest whether they'll be "reviewed" , "delayed" or "scaled back in their scope".

* when it comes to rail cuts, politicians prefer to cut regional programmes first. There are more votes in looking after SE rail commuters. Politics is a cruel world.

 

[thefab444]

I imagine ALL the electrification schemes will go the same way as Adonis's planned new diesel units. That bloke is very good at generating hot air, he's not so good at delivering (not necessarily his fault of course).

I can quite imagine taking a trip on the GWML in 25 years' time and nothing will have changed (except some of them will be in a different livery).

 

[royaloak]

And power doors to comply with disabled access rules.

 

[WatcherZero]

You missed off Crossrail which the tories have said they would likely cut (and use the money for HS2)

Defence of it has already begun with a cost saving program trying to find ways to come in under budget.

 

[PhilipW]

Do note that all the electrification schemes (GWR plus Lancashire schemes) are being financed by borrowing against Network Rail's Asset Base. As such the money is not on the Government's books and therefore their cancellation does not decrease the deficit one bit.

There is no point in discussing whether this is just a fiddle or not. Whether it is or it isn't is of little consequence. What I have said in the first paragraph is true.

Note also that the Glasgow-Falkirk-Edinburgh electrification scheme is going to be financed the same way and the Scottish Government has no intention of cancelling it irrespective of which party is in control at Westminster.

To cancel the English schemes allegedly to save money while the Scottish schemes still go ahead will be bizarre indeed as they are financed the same way.

 

[shinkansen1966]

Do note that all the electrification schemes (GWR plus Lancashire schemes) are being financed by borrowing against Network Rail's Asset Base. As such the money is not on the Government's books and therefore their cancellation does not decrease the deficit one bit.

This ties in with an article I read only this afternoon. The method and accounting of the funding for the electrification schemes means they will go ahead. That same article did mention rolling stock funding cut backs, though.

So where does that leave new or refurbished electric stock for these schemes?

 

[Mojo]

You missed off Crossrail which the tories have said they would likely cut (and use the money for HS2)

Crossrail can't really be cut as the work on stations has already started, although tunnelling is not due to commence until 2011.

 

[WatcherZero]

They also want Heathrow hub and more of HS2 in tunnels, quicker and more expensive HS2 network, theyve never really costed any of their transport plans. I mean even today they were saying they would fulfill the Labour 1300 carriage commitment.

 

[Chafford1]

This ties in with an article I read only this afternoon. The method and accounting of the funding for the electrification schemes means they will go ahead. That same article did mention rolling stock funding cut backs, though.

So where does that leave new or refurbished electric stock for these schemes?

If Paddington - Swansea electrification goes ahead, an alternative will be needed - possibly:

Cheaper version of IEP
Polaris - much cheaper than IEP
Electric locomotives plus re-engineered Mk III coaches with power doors and retention toilets (see Roger Ford's excellent article on refurbishment in March's Modern Railways).

 

[captainbigun]

Electric locomotives plus re-engineered Mk III coaches with power doors and retention toilets (see Roger Ford's excellent article on refurbishment in March's Modern Railways).

Think UK compliant TRAXX....

 

[mallard]

If Paddington - Swansea electrification goes ahead, an alternative will be needed - possibly:

Cheaper version of IEP
Polaris - much cheaper than IEP
Electric locomotives plus re-engineered Mk III coaches with power doors and retention toilets (see Roger Ford's excellent article on refurbishment in March's Modern Railways).

If they really want to do it on the cheap, how about sticking pictographs on the HST power cars and replacing the engines with transformer gear scavenged from scrapped 86/87s?

 

[ainsworth74]

how about sticking pictographs on the HST power cars

I suspect pictographs, whilst looking nice, won't work very well when it comes to powering the locomotive. Now a pantograph might do the trick

 

[daccer]

I think that the spending plans for CP4 are fairly secure especially the projects that have been started. I think what we will see is a general slippage of investment going forward over the next ten years. This will become especially true if HS2 is pushed through as this will suck up great chunks of public money and it has to come from somewhere - Network Rail would be the obvious choice. Crossrail is a fairly unique project as funding is coming from a myriad of sources and to unwravel it now is not so easy. Also to scale it back is also not so easy as to do so does defeat the object of having it in the first place.

IEP will go in its present format I am sure. I would expect an interim arrangement to be put in place whilst we wait for HS2 to kick in. This may mean an off the shelf solution. However electrifying the MML and GWML without IEP or an alternative doesnt make much sense. I have a feeling the rolling electrification programme might be dictated more about the vehicles that are available for cascading rather than any step change in long distance travel. This might mean starting with smaller schemes were units can be provided for from present stock. Thameslink will be scaled back or slowed down. New Units will probably come on stream piecemeal rather than en bloc as the cascade of the vast majority of FCC's electric fleet might outstrip the electrification programme and we will end up with units in store.

Network Rail will not get another settlement like CP4 I am sure. We will see lots of mini projects in CP5 to try and keep performance up without the hefty bills of a Reading redevlopment or a New St rebuild. If HS2 is built I just cant see the traditional network getting the investment it needs to build on the start that has been made. The worry is that high speed rail will take over a little like in France where the TGV dominates and classic lines can battle for cash. If HS 2 is funded as a completely seperate entity and can be used to alleviate pressure on the ECML and WCML it does mean that Network rail can focus on some of the lesser lines without the seemingly never ending need to upgrade the two main north-south lines. What is clear is that there will be pain ahead and we will be losing somethings to allow us to jump into the High speed club (if indeed we do build HS2). There is a chance we will end up with nothing and we will go back into a period of managed decline or stagnation - lets hope not!

 

[Withered Arm]

Bring back good old British Rail, ok they may have ran late at times but fares were reasonable,usually found a seat to, at least they ran as a public service not a gravy train for city investors, new projects get cut because to many have their hand in the pot,oh for when we had our own engineering works.
Oh yeah i also liked Brs BLT sandwich, am i odd?

 

[starrymarkb]

Bring back good old British Rail, ok they may have ran late at times but fares were reasonable,usually found a seat to, at least they ran as a public service not a gravy train for city investors, new projects get cut because to many have their hand in the pot,oh for when we had our own engineering works.
Oh yeah i also liked Brs BLT sandwich, am i odd?

You do realise that there is more state control now then there ever was under BR

 

[mallard]

I suspect pictographs, whilst looking nice, won't work very well when it comes to powering the locomotive. Now a pantograph might do the trick

Damn spell checker!

 

[Geezertronic]

Damn spell checker!

Don't you mean spill chucker

 

[captainbigun]

If they really want to do it on the cheap, how about sticking pictographs on the HST power cars and replacing the engines with transformer gear scavenged from scrapped 86/87s?

The tap changer technology is well out dated, the transformers are too big and there aren't any spare anyway.