Crossrail opening delayed (opening date not yet known)

[Nicholas Lewis]

Don't think you can compare the Victoria line with Crossrail. The Victoria line is largely self contained and does not have to interface with all the differing signalling systems that Crossrail does.

Granted there isn't a direct comparison but they were constructing and engineering something new and managed to get it delivered broadly on time. Crossrail had the benefit of 40 years further experience to draw upon along with hugely expensive support organisation that was designed to forewarn of issues and head them off but is failed to do so. So they didn't make it easy for themselves having Siemens and Bombardier software to interface but it was clearly a huge risk from the outset but never got much attention because you can't grandstand software with politicians unlike big holes in the ground. The current team were given a blank sheet to reset the project and didn't have political pressure to make it happen but even they are showing the scale of the challenge these engineering decisions made by there predecessors without understanding the consequences are having.

In my day the mantra was 'Keep it Simple Stupid' and that stands.

 

[hwl]

Granted there isn't a direct comparison but they were constructing and engineering something new and managed to get it delivered broadly on time. Crossrail had the benefit of 40 years further experience to draw upon along with hugely expensive support organisation that was designed to forewarn of issues and head them off but is failed to do so. So they didn't make it easy for themselves having Siemens and Bombardier software to interface but it was clearly a huge risk from the outset but never got much attention because you can't grandstand software with politicians unlike big holes in the ground. The current team were given a blank sheet to reset the project and didn't have political pressure to make it happen but even they are showing the scale of the challenge these engineering decisions made by there predecessors without understanding the consequences are having.

In my day the mantra was 'Keep it Simple Stupid' and that stands.

The software would have be a huge issue even if a single company had supplied both - there was just too much new functionality and "first time" issues to deal with.

 

[BrianW]

The software would have be a huge issue even if a single company had supplied both - there was just too much new functionality and "first time" issues to deal with.

That's 'Optimism Bias' for you. Projects need people to say 'no', or not this time, or similar; or at least 'are you sure?' It can be easy spending someone else's (eg taxpayers') money, esp when you just know you're right

 

[hwl]

That's 'Optimism Bias' for you. Projects need people to say 'no', or not this time, or similar; or at least 'are you sure?' It can be easy spending someone else's (eg taxpayers') money, esp when you just know you're right

They didn't have a choice on many items, but given that they were then very cavalier on estimating low costs and quick timings. Exactly the same thing happened on JLE with 2 of the same directors in the late 1990s, they didn't learn.

The current management has at least realised that most of the issues with signalling are down to being unrealistic given what actually needed to happen.

 

[Meerkat]

That's 'Optimism Bias' for you. Projects need people to say 'no', or not this time, or similar; or at least 'are you sure?' It can be easy spending someone else's (eg taxpayers') money, esp when you just know you're right

“You are so negative, you are always saying it can’t be done!”
”Maybe, but that doesn’t mean I’m wrong....”

 

[mrmartin]

I think it's quite clear that something is majorly majorly wrong in this project (if it wasn't before). Even in the middle of lockdown they were briefing the press that they were still on track for H1 2021, if not beating it. We now get another year delay.

My personal guess is that the CBTC system doesn't work. They are still in major software development nearly 2 years after original opening date. I noticed problems on all of their videos of dynamic testing (for example, the destination boards above the platform doors aren't hooked up and just show nonsense data).

The other problem has to be Mark Wild. As other posters mentioned, he was meant to usher in a new era of transparency, which if anything is even less than before.

Something is rotten at this project - Jacobs were saying productivity was significantly less than plan before covid, which crossrail ltd then briefed against. Guess what... months after, productivity has been less than plan...

 

[ijmad]

I wonder what the cost of fitting out the GEML (to Shenfield) and GWML reliefs (to Reading) as well as the core with ETCS signalling would be vs the cost of continuing to work on this apparently impossible software problem. I know a lot has been made of the need for inter-running but it has become apparent that (apart from the off peak GWR services to Didcot) Crossrail will have nearly exclusive run of the relief lines anyway.

At some point you have to stop throwing good money after bad, take stock, and correct course.

 

[matt_world2004]

I wonder what the cost of fitting out the GEML (to Shenfield) and GWML reliefs (to Reading) as well as the core with ETCS signalling would be vs the cost of continuing to work on this apparently impossible software problem. I know a lot has been made of the need for inter-running but it has become apparent that (apart from the off peak GWR services to Didcot) Crossrail will have nearly exclusive run of the relief lines anyway.

At some point you have to stop throwing good money after bad, take stock, and correct course.

Considerable freight and non stopping rail movements still happen on the reliefs . And the reliefs are used when there is engineering works on the fasts

 

[Jonny]

I wonder what the cost of fitting out the GEML (to Shenfield) and GWML reliefs (to Reading) as well as the core with ETCS signalling would be vs the cost of continuing to work on this apparently impossible software problem. I know a lot has been made of the need for inter-running but it has become apparent that (apart from the off peak GWR services to Didcot) Crossrail will have nearly exclusive run of the relief lines anyway.

At some point you have to stop throwing good money after bad, take stock, and correct course.

Considerable freight and non stopping rail movements still happen on the reliefs . And the reliefs are used when there is engineering works on the fasts

ETCS/ERTMS can also be fitted as an overlay to existing signalling. It seems to work well on the Thameslink core, and non-ETCS-equipped trains retain their access rights to the route.

 

[hwl]

Considerable freight and non stopping rail movements still happen on the reliefs . And the reliefs are used when there is engineering works on the fasts

The Freights fleets will get done as part of the ECML south ETCS programme in the next few years and the rest of the new Anglia fleet should be ETCS ready so give it 5 years and the answer will be one of the easiest regions/areas.

 

[gsnedders]

ETCS/ERTMS can also be fitted as an overlay to existing signalling. It seems to work well on the Thameslink core, and non-ETCS-equipped trains retain their access rights to the route.

especially given the challenges of overlaying ETCS and ATP have been solved for the Heathrow branch, one might hope it wouldn't be too infeasible, but I guess it would need to be done all the way to Reading

 

[JonathanH]

I wonder what the cost of fitting out the GEML (to Shenfield) and GWML reliefs (to Reading) as well as the core with ETCS signalling would be vs the cost of continuing to work on this apparently impossible software problem.

Isn't an ETCS overlay already in place but not routinely operational as far west as Slough? There was testing back in May 2020 reported in this thread.

https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/class-345-progress.120221/page-112#post-4592342

5Z70 running today between Paddington and Slough to do ETCS testing on the Relief Lines out of Paddington. Followed by 5Z71 to do ETCS testing on Main Lines this evening.

ECTS Stage B area.

There appears to be a lot of confusion about the signalling issues with Crossrail and which bits do and don't work. Is it actually impossible or just being worked on? Class 345 reliability seems to be picking up on the Heathrow / Hayes workings - almost no delays at all today.

 

[gsnedders]

There appears to be a lot of confusion about the signalling issues with Crossrail and which bits do and don't work. Is it actually impossible or just being worked on? Class 345 reliability seems to be picking up on the Heathrow / Hayes workings - almost no delays at all today.

covers this a bit, and https://www.railway-technology.com/features/crossrail-delay/ talks a fair bit about this.

In short, there are three different systems: ETCS, CBTC, and AWS/TPWS. There are (currently) only transitions from CBTC to/from AWS/TPWS (stationary, at Stratford station; plus while underway at Westbourne Park) and AWS/TPWS to/from ETCS (Heathrow branch).

The big difficulty, as far as I'm aware, is the CBTC to AWS/TPWS transition while moving, which wasn't part of the original plan. The track layout is much more complex (with bi-directional signalling, junctions for depot access, etc.) than at the Eastern end as well. CBTC to/from ETCS clearly hasn't been tested in the real world setting (versus on test tracks), but hopefully that is smoother when it is needed.

 

[Class 170101]

The big difficulty, as far as I'm aware, is the CBTC to AWS/TPWS transition while moving, which wasn't part of the original plan. The track layout is much more complex (with bi-directional signalling, junctions for depot access, etc.) than at the Eastern end as well. CBTC to/from ETCS clearly hasn't been tested in the real world setting (versus on test tracks), but hopefully that is smoother when it is needed.

Explains why ECS moves in Real Time Trains stop at Stratford when entering / exiting the portal.

 

[JonathanH]

The big difficulty, as far as I'm aware, is the CBTC to AWS/TPWS transition while moving, which wasn't part of the original plan. The track layout is much more complex (with bi-directional signalling, junctions for depot access, etc.) than at the Eastern end as well. CBTC to/from ETCS clearly hasn't been tested in the real world setting (versus on test tracks), but hopefully that is smoother when it is needed.

Thank you. That is quite a long way away from saying that CBTC doesn't work which was suggested upthread.

Aside from the issue of getting stock on and off Old Oak Depot, the transitions wouldn't need to be resolved ahead of the Core opening. However, I guess that once the Core is open getting possessions (on the Crossrail side) to test the transition at Paddington might be difficult if they want to keep the Core open. I appreciate that Sunday possessions of lines 4-6 on the mainline are not that impractical.

 

[gsnedders]

Thank you. That is quite a long way away from saying that CBTC doesn't work which was suggested upthread.

Aside from the issue of getting stock on and off Old Oak Depot, the transitions wouldn't need to be resolved ahead of the Core opening. However, I guess that once the Core is open getting possessions (on the Crossrail side) to test the transition at Paddington might be difficult if they want to keep the Core open. I appreciate that Sunday possessions of lines 4-6 on the mainline are not that impractical.

Is Old Oak Depot, or at least some of the sidings, not CBTC, hence the ability to run driverless there?

My understanding it's only recently the case that the software (both on the infrastructure and on-board sides) has reached a point where things largely work elsewhere. It is, however, notable that they are yet to do trial running which may throw up further issues, and that can't start until Bond Street is usable at least as an emergency exit.

Getting possessions on the Crossrail side to test the transition probably aren't impossible; after all they managed it with Heathrow tunnels which are at least as busy.

That the stations in the Core aren't complete is probably the biggest blocker to the Core opening.

 

[Horizon22]

I think it's quite clear that something is majorly majorly wrong in this project (if it wasn't before). Even in the middle of lockdown they were briefing the press that they were still on track for H1 2021, if not beating it. We now get another year delay.

My personal guess is that the CBTC system doesn't work. They are still in major software development nearly 2 years after original opening date. I noticed problems on all of their videos of dynamic testing (for example, the destination boards above the platform doors aren't hooked up and just show nonsense data).

The other problem has to be Mark Wild. As other posters mentioned, he was meant to usher in a new era of transparency, which if anything is even less than before.

Something is rotten at this project - Jacobs were saying productivity was significantly less than plan before covid, which crossrail ltd then briefed against. Guess what... months after, productivity has been less than plan...

The communication is certainly not good at all - I think this has led to expectations that simply can't be met. If we'd all be told "sorry its 24 months away because of X/Y/Z" at least that would be better than drip feeding another 6 to 12 month delay seemingly every few months. I would query how its Mark Wild's fault though as he picked up what was already a considerable shambles.

 

[InOban]

New Crossrail photos released

Crossrail has released a handful of new photos showing the status of some of their stations and how people are working to complete construction of the railway.

www.ianvisits.co.uk

Recent photos released by crossrail.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The communication is certainly not good at all - I think this has led to expectations that simply can't be met. If we'd all be told "sorry its 24 months away because of X/Y/Z" at least that would be better than drip feeding another 6 to 12 month delay seemingly every few months. I would query how its Mark Wild's fault though as he picked up what was already a considerable shambles.

Thing is Wilde was cut a lot of slack to understand the issue and work out a plan he also had political pressure removed (certainly publicly) to build in sufficient contingency yet we are long way back down the snakes and ladders board. He's also sounding like a stuck record with his 'I know how much London needs this' mantra then it will take as long as it takes being the undertone. For me the transparency is hollow as the detail isn't there and where is the independent oversight to test the plans being proposed?

 

[kev1974]

New Crossrail photos released

Crossrail has released a handful of new photos showing the status of some of their stations and how people are working to complete construction of the railway.

www.ianvisits.co.uk

Recent photos released by crossrail.

Apart from the first picture the rest seem to show people working in total isolation i.e. totally on their own, or no people working at all. I'm not surprised they're years behind if they only ever have 1 person working on anything on his own!

 

[ijmad]

Photos look very staged. Wouldn't be the first time. In one of their earlier videos on train testing they showed a train running down a tunnel then later in the video played it in reverse. I suppose to create the impression trains were going both ways at some frequency level. You could tell because it had red lights on the 'front'.

 

[Scottychoo]

Apart from the first picture the rest seem to show people working in total isolation i.e. totally on their own, or no people working at all. I'm not surprised they're years behind if they only ever have 1 person working on anything on his own!

How long before they use those dreaded words 'social distancing' as an excuse for that?

 

[ChrisHogan]

Slightly off-topic but today's disruption due to the fatality on the DML at Slough saw at least one TfL 345 from Paddn terminated in platform 5 at West Drayton. First passenger use of this platform since its reopening?

 

[Class 170101]

Slightly off-topic but today's disruption due to the fatality on the DML at Slough saw at least one TfL 345 from Paddn terminated in platform 5 at West Drayton. First passenger use of this platform since its reopening?

Don't Crossrail have plans to use this platform as part of their normal timetable?

 

[cjmillsnun]

How long before they use those dreaded words 'social distancing' as an excuse for that?

Yes Social distancing would be a reason for that. Plus the fact you have a spark who probably has a mate elsewhere doing something else and someone fitting some trim. Not something that needs two person lifts. So yes single working is the safest way.

 

[JN114]

Slightly off-topic but today's disruption due to the fatality on the DML at Slough saw at least one TfL 345 from Paddn terminated in platform 5 at West Drayton. First passenger use of this platform since its reopening?

Not even remotely first time - fairly common move during disruption, platform has been reopened for quite a while now.

 

[ABB125]

I'm told by a well-placed source that a lot of the increased cost and delay to Crossrail is due to the expensive consultancies not actually solving problems but simply creating more work for themselves in order to extract more money from whomever is dumb/naive enough to pay up. No change from normal there then! Especially in the current situation, where much of the consultancies' normal work has dried up.
Having said that, this source is known for his dislike of and contempt towards consultants, so there may be a bit of exaggeration going on!

 

[matt_world2004]

Don't Crossrail have plans to use this platform as part of their normal timetable?

They did. These services now run to terminal 5.

 

[swt_passenger]

Don't Crossrail have plans to use this platform as part of their normal timetable?

The current intended full timetable doesn’t involve any West Drayton terminators, it’s been through that many iterations, but AIUI the various cumulative changes to Reading, Maidenhead and especially Heathrow services means it won’t see any normal day to day use.

 

[Taunton]

I'm told by a well-placed source that a lot of the increased cost and delay to Crossrail is due to the expensive consultancies not actually solving problems but simply creating more work for themselves in order to extract more money from whomever is dumb/naive enough to pay up. No change from normal there then! Especially in the current situation, where much of the consultancies' normal work has dried up.
Having said that, this source is known for his dislike of and contempt towards consultants, so there may be a bit of exaggeration going on!

Obviously a pointed view, but I have to agree, at least one of the major "consultancies" (keeping on this side of the law) appointed seemed to contribute diddly-squat to the process or achieve what they originally were appointed to manage. I wouldn't use them again and suggest TfL have the same attitude.