Crossrail - Construction updates and progress towards opening (now expected 24 May 2022)

[dmncf]

I walked by the Royal Oak portal this morning and was happy to see a lot of activity, presumably related to the 12tph trail running this week.

I took a couple of short videos:

11:44 - Westbound train emerging from the Crossrail core
https://i.imgur.com/aiuv7dS.mp4

11:45 - Eastbound train entering the Crossrail core
https://i.imgur.com/Ng1tuUr.mp4

Is there a crossover near the tunnel portal or between the tunnel portal and Paddington that the eastbound train will use to cross to left hand running?

 

[zwk500]

Is there a crossover near the tunnel portal or between the tunnel portal and Paddington that the eastbound train will use to cross to left hand running?

Yes: https://signalmaps.co.uk/#crossrail:946

 

[jfollows]

I've read a lot of news about the opening potentially being Easter now, have things improved? Or is this still just an optimistic schedule assuming everything goes perfectly?

The Evening Standard says "unlikely to open before Easter" and that Bond Street won't be ready when it does (https://www.standard.co.uk/news/tra...-delay-tfl-london-elizabeth-line-b966416.html).

Hopes of Crossrail opening in early 2022 dashed

By Ross Lydall

@RossLydall

Hopes that Crossrail might open early next year were formally dashed on Tuesday.

Crossrail chief executive Mark Wild said the “opening window” for services to start under central London was now “February to June”.

Previously Crossrail chiefs had always insisted that the line would open at some point in the “first six months” of 2022.

Crossrail was originally meant to have been opened by the Queen on December 9, 2018 – meaning it will soon be three years late. It is also more than £4bn over budget.

It is also likely that Bond Street station – the key station in the heart of Oxford Street - will not be ready when the line opens, but will open several weeks or longer after the rest of the £19bn line.

A London Assembly inquiry into the long-delayed, over budget line’s opening was told that the “dress rehearsal” phase known as trial operations, which requires 150 high level “drills or procedures”, was due to start in the coming days or weeks.

This will take “three to four months” – indicating that the line is unlikely to open before Easter.

Six mass evacuation tests that form part of the trial operations process cannot be carried out until after Christmas because of problems with tunnel ventillation, Mr Wild revealed.

Nevertheless, a decision had been taken to start trial operations before Christmas and complete as many of the other 144 checks as quickly as possible.

Mr Wild said that it would take “nine to 15 months” to complete the trial running and trial operations phases, which started in May last year.

TfL commissioner Andy Byford on Tuesday said that his previous claim of opening Crossrail by this Christmas was a “possibility”, that he had “reluctantly to give up on” because of software problems.

He said he was not prepared to open the line until he was sure the service would be reliable. “Londoners will not thank us if it looks great but is not reliable,” he said. But he added it would definitely open by the end of June. “It will not slip.”

Mr Byford said Crossrail would provide a huge economic boost to the capital but said about its opening: “It has to be a showcase. It can’t be unreliable.”

 

[Wolfie]

The Evening Standard says "unlikely to open before Easter" and that Bond Street won't be ready when it does (https://www.standard.co.uk/news/tra...-delay-tfl-london-elizabeth-line-b966416.html).

"Feb to Jun" and the "first six months of 2022" seem to be much the same thing to me (just rules out Jan 22)....

 

[itfcfan]

Something I heard today which was new to me at least (I'm sure someone will point out when/where it was mentioned before!) was a month for the aim of connecting the existing Great Western / Great Eastern sections to the core. Andy Byford gave September 2022. This was far earlier than I was expecting. I know the original plan (Great Eastern attached ~6 months after core opening, then Great Western attached ~6 months later) was ditched a few months ago in preference of connecting both sides at the same time. But if September 2022 could be achieved it would be a pleasant surprise!

 

[kevin_roche]

Something I heard today which was new to me at least (I'm sure someone will point out when/where it was mentioned before!) was a month for the aim of connecting the existing Great Western / Great Eastern sections to the core. Andy Byford gave September 2022. This was far earlier than I was expecting. I know the original plan (Great Eastern attached ~6 months after core opening, then Great Western attached ~6 months later) was ditched a few months ago in preference of connecting both sides at the same time. But if September 2022 could be achieved it would be a pleasant surprise!

At the London Assembly Transport Committee meeting which has just finished. Mark Wild and Andy Byford confirmed that they will open Abbey Wood to Paddington between February 2022 and June 2020 and the interfaces to GWML and GEML 6 months after that.

The majority of the meeting was about Crossrail.

If anyone has a spare two and a half hours. https://webcasts.london.gov.uk/Assembly/Event/Index/b1d76b2d-8071-4b91-84d2-d50c53c9bcae Fast forward to the 20 mins point for the start of the Crossrail reports.

They also said that Trial Operations was starting in the next few days or weeks. That would take 3 to 4 months and then the Paddington to Abbey Wood section of the railway would open. That puts it at about March or April. Six more months is September or October.

 

[Horizon22]

"Feb to Jun" and the "first six months of 2022" seem to be much the same thing to me (just rules out Jan 22)....

That's what I thought when I saw it. When I heard "first 6 months", I always assumed that meant June (or perhaps May to coincide with timetable changes if they were running ahead of time) anyway. A good law in the railways - if a date range is communicated, always expect it to run on the last day!

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

At the London Assembly Transport Committee meeting which has just finished. Mark Wild and Andy Byford confirmed that they will open Abbey Wood to Paddington between February 2022 and June 2020 and the interfaces to GWML and GEML 6 months after that.

Good to see they are trying to make it earlier now

Facetious comment aside I appreciate you keeping us upto date here. Be interesting to see what learning HS2 have taken from this debacle to avoid a rerun in a decades time.

 

[ijmad]

As a Londoner I'd take a small delay in the core opening in exchange for an earlier connection to Heathrow/Stratford!

 

[kevin_roche]

That's what I thought when I saw it. When I heard "first 6 months", I always assumed that meant June (or perhaps May to coincide with timetable changes if they were running ahead of time) anyway. A good law in the railways - if a date range is communicated, always expect it to run on the last day!

The other thing that is driving dates is the cost and revenue streams. The DfT & Treasury have not agreed to pay enough to keep TfL from going over budget when the COS opens in June. If they can open the COS in April that will help the budget stay within what has been agreed. I'm not sure what the actual date when it goes over the current limit.

 

[hwl]

The other thing that is driving dates is the cost and revenue streams. The DfT & Treasury have not agreed to pay enough to keep TfL from going over budget when the COS opens in June. If they can open the COS in April that will help the budget stay within what has been agreed. I'm not sure what the actual date when it goes over the current limit.

They don't know either - too many permutations a the moment

 

[Wolfie]

That's what I thought when I saw it. When I heard "first 6 months", I always assumed that meant June (or perhaps May to coincide with timetable changes if they were running ahead of time) anyway. A good law in the railways - if a date range is communicated, always expect it to run on the last day!

Not only the railway lol... Just about everything...

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 16 Nov 2021 ==

As a Londoner I'd take a small delay in the core opening in exchange for an earlier connection to Heathrow/Stratford!

Hmmmm... Wonder which bit of London you live in, lol...

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The other thing that is driving dates is the cost and revenue streams. The DfT & Treasury have not agreed to pay enough to keep TfL from going over budget when the COS opens in June. If they can open the COS in April that will help the budget stay within what has been agreed. I'm not sure what the actual date when it goes over the current limit.

Is this really going to drive a big boost in fares paid or is it TfL getting more out tickets sold on the mainline network as passengers change into a Crossrail at Abbey Wd or Shenfield vice a London terminal.

 

[hwl]

Is this really going to drive a big boost in fares paid or is it TfL getting more out tickets sold on the mainline network as passengers change into a Crossrail at Abbey Wd or Shenfield vice a London terminal.

The pre covid studies mostly pointed to the later as the main additional revenue driver in the short term (~2 years). Plenty of cannibalism from existing LU revenue (e.g. Central line users) before new user growth builds up over time.

In some cases CR opening will decrease revenue e.g. Thameslink MML- Canary Wharf:
Plenty changing at West Hampstead to Jubilee line pre-crossrail but the expectation is they all change at Farringdon in the future hence less TfL revenue pre user.

GWR getting TfL to take over the residual Reading services in December is another nice little earner medium sized chunk of incremental revenue. (Helps with CR/TfL finances if there are users)
Abbey Wood will be similar in theory but the distances and existing fares there are smaller and some of the success of Abbey Wood will be down to SE timetable changes.


Easier quicker journey will be important to get people back to using rail/going to the office etc.

There may be a limited window while Uber can't cope with demand to entice so potential users as they don't have much choice.

 

[kevin_roche]

Is this really going to drive a big boost in fares paid or is it TfL getting more out tickets sold on the mainline network as passengers change into a Crossrail at Abbey Wd or Shenfield vice a London terminal.

Might just be able to say to central government that they need money for a reason other than Crossrail.

Ian Visits has more detail of the status report given to the London Assembly Transport Committee yesterday.

Crossrail aims to start Trial Operations “within days”​

The final testing stage before the Elizabeth line opens to the public is due to start within the next few days, Crossrail’s CEO, Mark Wild has confirmed.

Mark Wild confirmed this morning at a London Assembly committee meeting that trial running has achieved its objectives and was completed in the expected seven months that was scheduled, and is coming to completion later this week.

 

[rebmcr]

Plenty of cannibalism from existing LU revenue (e.g. Central line users) before new user growth builds up over time.

Of course the sooner it opens, the sooner that growth begins.

 

[hwl]

Of course the sooner it opens, the sooner that growth begins.

New users for both CR and LU/buses to replace existing users transferring to CR.

Not necessarily...
a substantial component of that is related to new job and population growth that is independent of whether or not CR opens hence the pre Covid expectation that it would peak be 2-5 years after CR opening. Post Covid you'd expect that growth rate to be far slower.

 

[rd749249]

I have seen a trial ops plan (internal) through to passenger service.

Trial Ops starts 20/11 (this Saturday) with extended running, finishing at 23:30. Diagrams released concur with this. 12 tph with a few minor blockades here and there until passenger service starts. Scenarios include train rescues, loss of ATO, loss of ARS, evacuations, wrong side failures and obstructions. This is not an exhaustive list.

Passenger service listed to start 6th March (Sunday), 12 tph. Save the date!

 

[kevin_roche]

Passenger service listed to start 6th March (Sunday), 12 tph. Save the date!

My fingers are crossed.

 

[Horizon22]

I've seen a message that Trial Operations is indeed now in progress as of today - a quick check here seems to be showing the 12tph (ramping down after 2200) with trains until 2332 at Paddington, 2255 from Abbey Wood.

Realtime Trains | Live Departures from Paddington Crossrail

Live train information at Paddington Crossrail. From Realtime Trains, an independent source of train running info for Great Britain.

www.realtimetrains.co.uk

 

[AM9]

I've seen a message that Trial Operations is indeed now in progress as of today - a quick check here seems to be showing the 12tph (ramping down after 2200) with trains until 2332 at Paddington, 2255 from Abbey Wood.

Realtime Trains | Live Departures from Paddington Crossrail

Live train information at Paddington Crossrail. From Realtime Trains, an independent source of train running info for Great Britain.

www.realtimetrains.co.uk

I see that there's an additional working between 15:00 and 15:59, - the 15:25 destined for Chadwell Heath Turnback. It's timed to pass Stepney Green Junction at 15:39 1/2 so a bit more pressure on these early hours of trials. Presumably that will running within sight of the 15:23 ex Paddington when that stops at stations?

 

[JonathanH]

I see that there's an additional working between 15:00 and 15:59, - the 15:25 destined for Chadwell Heath Turnback. It's timed to pass Stepney Green Junction at 15:39 1/2 so a bit more pressure on these early hours of trials. Presumably that will running within sight of the 15:23 ex Paddington when that stops at stations?

That will be a stock transfer move of a 9-car for east side passenger operations. There are a few of those throughout the day to allow for the rotation of units.

It does seem somewhat odd that six months of full running is needed before the line can open - where did this full operational running fit in the original plan to open in December 2018?

 

[kevin_roche]

It does seem somewhat odd that six months of full running is needed before the line can open - where did this full operational running fit in the original plan to open in December 2018?

If all goes well it is going to be just over 3 months before the line see message #558

Passenger service listed to start 6th March (Sunday), 12 tph. Save the date!

In the original plan the testing got compressed into October and November 2018.

The current plan appears to be:

Mar 22 - Sep 22 Paddington to Abbey Wood Open
Sep 22 - Mar 23 Reading & Heathrow to Abbey Wood, and Paddington to Shenfield Open
Mar 23 Fully Open

I believe these changes will require new versions of signalling software in the COS. ELR110 in Mar 22, ELR200 in Sep 22 and ELR300 in Mar 23.

Perhaps if it wasn't for the software the full service would start earlier.

 

[Snow1964]

I believe these changes will require new versions of signalling software in the COS. ELR101 in Mar 22, ELR200 in Sep 22 and ELR300 in Mar 23.

Perhaps if it wasn't for the software the full service would start earlier.

per section 3.6 of latest TfL Elizabeth Line Board papers will be ELR110, which is 9 higher than ELR101

3.6 Before the end of the year, there will be further changes to the tunnel ventilation system to complete the outstanding functionality of the system software for passenger service. There will also be a smaller scale software update (ELR110) that will sweep up any new issues identified during Trial Running. These final fixes are expected to be small in number but are important in the final completion of the railway for revenue service.

https://board.tfl.gov.uk/documents/s16869/elc-20211125-pt1-project-status-update.pdf

 

[rebmcr]

ELR110, which is 9 higher than ELR101

Not necessarily. A lot of software versioning uses three digits semi-independently, like so:

• The first digit is a Major Release — often when this digit increments, there is significant alteration to the way the product functions, and anything that interfaces with is must be checked for compatibility (referred to as a Breaking Change).
• The second digit is a Minor Release — while there are some alterations, most software vendors will endeavour to avoid Breaking Changes in Minor Releases.
  (Those first two usually correspond to a Release Schedule, so that the software engineers' work can be organised sensibly.)
• The third digit is a Bugfix Release — generally there are no new features nor general improvements in these versions; their sole purpose is to repair flaws as they are discovered, without waiting for the usual schedule.

An example of this in action would be a product launching as 1.0.0, receiving fixes for some security flaws with versions 1.0.1, 1.0.2, 1.0.3, etc, then getting a small new feature with 1.1.0, some more fixes 1.1.1, 1.1.2, 1.1.3, etc, then a complete overhaul at 2.0.0, and so on.

While it's not certain that the ELR versioning adheres to this convention, it's not very likely at all that it's just a serial number counting up, because that's not how software development works in the real world. Where there is such a counter, it's called a Build Number and is unrelated to published versions. Build numbers usually reach the thousands or tens of thousands for each Minor Release of commercial software, and are generally hidden from public prominence.

It's also possible that the ELR numbers instead refer to specific combinations of the actual versions of more than one piece of software in combination (such as CBTC, ETCS, etc).

 

[kevin_roche]

per section 3.6 of latest TfL Elizabeth Line Board papers will be ELR110, which is 9 higher than ELR101

Sorry, that's what I meant to say. I have updated it in my post.

It's also possible that the ELR numbers instead refer to specific combinations of the actual versions of more than one piece of software in combination (such as CBTC, ETCS, etc).

I believe they were doing that earlier with releases for the train software timed to match those on the CBTC system. I believe this ELR style numbering refers to the CBTC Signalling Control Centre software. The next train based software update though is happening before Christmas. Andy Byford said at the London Assembly Transport Committee meeting the new version number being installed then is version 5.4.

 

[jfollows]

Today's Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...s-in-london-raises-hope-of-early-2022-opening) reports that "trials .... raise(s) hope of early 2022 opening"

It notes that the existing TfL funding deal expires on 11 December and that TfL has said that it needs an extra £1.7bn until March 2023 to run services in which passenger numbers are at 60% of pre-pandemic levels (and, not stated but well known, a significant part of TfL's income comes from fare revenue, significantly more than public transport in other cities around the world, thanks to B. Johnson mayor in no small part). It mentions "managed decline" which is covered in another thread on this forum. It also observes that 90% of road vehicles are now exempt from the ultra-low emission zone charges, which is good for the environment, but bad for TfL's coffers given that only 39% of vehicles were exempt at the time of the plans for the charging going public in February 2017.

Crossrail

Start of final Crossrail trials in London raises hope of early 2022 opening

Volunteer passengers will be aboard central TfL section of Elizabeth line as part of final testing phase

Gwyn Topham Transport correspondent

@GwynTopham

Mon 22 Nov 2021 00.01 GMT

Hopes that Crossrail will open in central London in early 2022 – this time on schedule – have been boosted as the troubled £19bn scheme moved into its final phase of testing at the weekend.

The start of months of trial operations, which will involve thousands of volunteer passengers to test how the system will function, including in emergencies, was described as a “significant milestone” by Transport for London and the mayor.

TfL bosses have committed to open the line in full in the first half of next year, after the former Crossrail leadership downplayed problems that escalated into vast overspending and delay from its planned 2018 launch.

Initially, passengers will need to change trains between the new central underground section and the services already running from Reading in the west and Shenfield in the east, but TfL hopes that some trains could run from suburbs across the city centre by next autumn, ahead of a May 2023 deadline.

Testing of the railway started in May with up to 12 trains an hour running underground. The trial operations phase will involve more than 150 exercises over three to six months to ensure that the Elizabeth line, as Crossrail will be known, is ready for full passenger service.

TfL said the tests would continue until the railway was “at the highest levels of safety and reliability”, before an exact opening date would be given.

The mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, said: “Reaching the start of trial operations is a significant milestone in the delivery of the Elizabeth line. The next few months are crucial to making sure the railway can open safely next year, and everyone is working incredibly hard to reach that goal.”

Andy Byford, TfL’s commissioner, said there had been “huge progress … it is great to now enter this final stretch”. He said he believed the controversy and past problems would be forgotten once the line opened, as “a stunning addition, the jewel in the UK’s crown”.

Costs will be minimised by an early opening date. Byford has pledged to deliver within the final budget specified by the outgoing board, although £275m of that money has yet to be made available from the government or Greater London Authority.

Even before the pandemic, Crossrail’s opening was regarded as critical to ensure TfL’s finances could remain on budget. The line will increase total passenger capacity by 10% and expand the potential revenue for the capital, whose transport system has been heavily reliant on tube fares.

The importance was underscored by fresh warnings over TfL’s precarious position before a key budget meeting on Wednesday, with London’s emergency funding deal from the government set to expire on 11 December. TfL has said it will need an extra £1.7bn until March 2023 to run services, with passenger numbers only at about 60% of pre-pandemic levels on the tube.

Talks have yet to start on extending financial support from central government – and although previous deals during Covid have been agreed at the 11th hour, there are fears in London that the Treasury, which slashed planned rail spending on HS2 and Northern Powerhouse Rail last week, will withhold funds.

TfL said the lack of confirmed funding would force it to prepare for “managed decline” of the transport network.

London’s finances have been worsened, it revealed, by the success of the recently expanded ultra-low emission zone in encouraging drivers to sell polluting vehicles. Drivers of older petrol and most diesel vehicles are charged £12.50 or more daily under the clean air scheme. About 90% of vehicles are now exempt – up from 39% in February 2017 when plans for the expanded area were made public – improving air quality but reducing expected revenues by up to £600m over the next three years.

 

[och aye]

Today's Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...s-in-london-raises-hope-of-early-2022-opening) reports that "trials .... raise(s) hope of early 2022 opening"

It notes that the existing TfL funding deal expires on 11 December and that TfL has said that it needs an extra £1.7bn until March 2023 to run services in which passenger numbers are at 60% of pre-pandemic levels (and, not stated but well known, a significant part of TfL's income comes from fare revenue, significantly more than public transport in other cities around the world, thanks to B. Johnson mayor in no small part). It mentions "managed decline" which is covered in another thread on this forum. It also observes that 90% of vehicles are now exempt from the ultra-low emission zone charges, which is good for the environment, but bad for TfL's coffers given that only 39% of vehicles were exempt at the time of the plans for the charging going public in February 2017.

I'd be shocked if Geoff Marshall wasn't one of the volunteers/making a video.

 

[JonathanH]

I'd be shocked if Geoff Marshall wasn't one of the volunteers/making a video.

More likely to be staff at this stage than invited guests. I doubt one of the scenarios they need to assess is bloggers going round with a video camera. Geoff will no doubt get his opportunity when there is a press run, which will be before public opening.

 

[Mollman]

More likely to be staff at this stage than invited guests. I doubt one of the scenarios they need to assess is bloggers going round with a video camera. Geoff will no doubt get his opportunity when there is a press run, which will be before public opening.

Can be general public, I was one of the testers for the Edinburgh Tram before it opened - the main aim was to try different crowd control methods for Murrayfield