Crossrail 2 - Post Covid

[Fazaar1889]

I don't know much about XR2 but from what I understand, it is mainly to reduce congestion on the Southwestern mainline and to reduce overcrowding once HS2 opens at Euston. With the recent stat released by ORR, Waterloo is no longer the most used station and is at ~62% pre-covid numbers. HS2 Euston is also not going to open for a while considering Sunak's lack of interest in trains as a whole. With these two factors, is there still a massive need for XR2? Also, with the success of the Elizabeth Line, you would expect the government to be rushing to build XR2... but of course, they're not

Source for ORR numbers: https://www.orr.gov.uk/search-news/all-change-most-used-stations-elizabeth-line-shakes-top-10

 

[SynthD]

It is also to relieve the West Anglia main line, and unlock housing in that area. That line has probably bounced back better, and needs relief sooner.

The passenger number growth is delayed by a similar number of years to the various projects put off in the same period. Which is to say, if we went ahead now, it would arrive in time for the demand predicted before covid. The SWML may have higher than average WFH than the average London terminal, so this doesn't apply perfectly.

 

[Fazaar1889]

if we went ahead now, it would arrive in time for the demand predicted before covid.

Ah but this government doesn't care about future planning.

Regardless, thanks for the reply!

 

[Thirteen]

Crossrail 2 will likely be greenlit within the next two decades but depends on the priorities of the DfT and TfL.

 

[JonathanH]

With these two factors, is there still a massive need for XR2?

No. That is why it is not progressing.

Also, with the success of the Elizabeth Line, you would expect the government to be rushing to build XR2... but of course, they're not

There is very little impetus for it to be built. You certainly wouldn't be expecting this government to build it because there is no short term gain from starting the process up again.

 

[Bald Rick]

Theres no money!

 

[Sad Sprinter]

They've been saying that since 2010. At some point I think we're going to have to build to increase productivity and actually generate further wealth. Or we could all just turn off the lights and go home

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 Dec 2023 ==

Theres no money!

 

[PTR 444]

I don't know much about XR2 but from what I understand, it is mainly to reduce congestion on the Southwestern mainline and to reduce overcrowding once HS2 opens at Euston. With the recent stat released by ORR, Waterloo is no longer the most used station and is at ~62% pre-covid numbers. HS2 Euston is also not going to open for a while considering Sunak's lack of interest in trains as a whole. With these two factors, is there still a massive need for XR2? Also, with the success of the Elizabeth Line, you would expect the government to be rushing to build XR2... but of course, they're not

Source for ORR numbers: https://www.orr.gov.uk/search-news/all-change-most-used-stations-elizabeth-line-shakes-top-10

The overwhelming success of the Elizabeth Line proves that if you build it, they will come. Give it another 20 years and the economy should be in a much better state, while passenger numbers will hopefully have returned to or exceeded pre-Covid levels by then. Even if the need to free up capacity at Waterloo terminus is no longer required, Crossrail 2 will be vital for relieving the overcrowded Piccadilly, Victoria and Northern lines, which are often horrendously overcrowded.

 

[JonathanH]

The overwhelming success of the Elizabeth Line proves that if you build it, they will come.

How is overwhelming success measured? It is being well used clearly, but how much extra revenue and economic stimulus has it provided? What is the annualised return on the investment of over £20 billion?

Give it another 20 years and the economy should be in a much better state, while passenger numbers will hopefully have returned to or exceeded pre-Covid levels by then.

The UK financial sector is likely to go the same way as UK manufacturing in the next 20 years with offshoring and use of artificial intelligence high on the agenda of multinational companies eager to strip out high labour costs. That will reduce demand for workers in London, or at the very least, cause it to flatline.

 

[Bald Rick]

They've been saying that since 2010. At some point I think we're going to have to build to increase productivity and actually generate further wealth. Or we could all just turn off the lights and go home


== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 Dec 2023 ==

Actually, “they” haven‘t. There was money for Crossrail 2 up to 2018. There isn‘t now, and there wont be for the forseeable future, evn if the Eizabeth line is carrying nearly 5m people a week.

 

[Helvellyn]

How much of Waterloo's lower traffic figures are down to the fact SWR are still running a much reduced timetable compared to pre-COVID? I know changed working patterns will be a part but frequency/capacity reductions could also be putting people off returning. I also wonder how much Windsor lines traffic has switched to the Elizabeth Line? Driving to an Elizabeth Line station to get direct to your workplace in Central London or Canary Wharf might be preferable to driving to a SWR station to get to Waterloo only to have to take the tube onward.

 

[Thirteen]

I wouldn't be surprised if the Bakerloo Line extension will happen first.

 

[Arkeeos]

How is overwhelming success measured? It is being well used clearly, but how much extra revenue and economic stimulus has it provided? What is the annualised return on the investment of over £20 billion?

Didn't Crossrail make its budget back purely on land value uplift to its surrounding stations?

 

[Bald Rick]

Didn't Crossrail make its budget back purely on land value uplift to its surrounding stations?

No - at least not in a way that was captured by those funding the project.