Crossrail 2 plans

[furnessvale]

London has, compared to other cities, quite low density housing, a lot of semi's with large gardens in the suburbs. The population could increase a lot inside the M25 without recourse to long distance transport or using the green belt. It would not be that popular though...

Are you sure those gardens still exist.

The other week I was passing through the suburbs of Birmingham on the canal, and I was struck by the number of large "garages" in the gardens backing onto the cut. These "garages" appeared to have all mod cons and precious little access for a car!

 

[D365]

It just astounds me that we're regressing to the point where regions have to compete for investment again!

 

[CdBrux]

It just astounds me that we're regressing to the point where regions have to compete for investment again!

Projects should always compete for investment. I would hope that over time regional devolution will mean regions can fund more of their own smaller projects, however large ones such as CR2 and NPR, which are also inter-regional, will need some level of central government support and should therefore demonstrate that they are the most 'deserving' projects. How to define 'deserving' is the harder part!

 

[Bald Rick]

It simply isn't 'South vs North'. It is 'good case vs bad case'. It is quite conceivable that Crossrail 2 and something major in the north* will both happen. It is also conceivable that neither will happen. It depends on the respective business cases.

* of course, it would help 'the north' immensely if someone could actually define what 'something major' actually is. Outline scope, costs, benefits, that sort of thing. Clearly the Government can't make announcements about something that, as yet, doesn't exist.

 

[Dr_Intoxicated]

Are you sure those gardens still exist.

The other week I was passing through the suburbs of Birmingham on the canal, and I was struck by the number of large "garages" in the gardens backing onto the cut. These "garages" appeared to have all mod cons and precious little access for a car!

Out here in Feltham I have a 100ft garden, so they still exist.

 

[furnessvale]

It simply isn't 'South vs North'. It is 'good case vs bad case'. It is quite conceivable that Crossrail 2 and something major in the north* will both happen. It is also conceivable that neither will happen. It depends on the respective business cases.

* of course, it would help 'the north' immensely if someone could actually define what 'something major' actually is. Outline scope, costs, benefits, that sort of thing. Clearly the Government can't make announcements about something that, as yet, doesn't exist.

Have the days gone when the Minister instructed the railway investment panel not to submit schemes for approval so he claim he had no schemes on his desk waiting for approval?

 

[furnessvale]

Out here in Feltham I have a 100ft garden, so they still exist.

Get a few "garages" in that space, you'll make a fortune.

 

[Sceptre]

It simply isn't 'South vs North'. It is 'good case vs bad case'. It is quite conceivable that Crossrail 2 and something major in the north* will both happen. It is also conceivable that neither will happen. It depends on the respective business cases.

* of course, it would help 'the north' immensely if someone could actually define what 'something major' actually is. Outline scope, costs, benefits, that sort of thing. Clearly the Government can't make announcements about something that, as yet, doesn't exist.

Midland Main Line electrification had a benefit-cost ratio of between 4.5 to 7.2.

Crossrail 1's BCR was 1.9 to 3.0 and Crossrail 2's was 1.8 to 4.1.

 

[HSTEd]

Midland Main Line electrification had a benefit-cost ratio of between 4.5 to 7.2

At which ludicrously low estimate for 25kV electrification cost?

I very much doubt it gets much above 1:1 at this point.

 

[The Ham]

Midland Main Line electrification had a benefit-cost ratio of between 4.5 to 7.2.

Crossrail 1's BCR was 1.9 to 3.0 and Crossrail 2's was 1.8 to 4.1.

MML electrification, at least in parts, could still happen by the time Crossrail 2 is open.

However I would suggest that it is not a major project (significant yes, but not major) as it doesn't add much in the way of capacity.

In fact the project that will be a major project for the north had already been announced, that being HS2 as that is said to allow the doubling of peak hour seats into Manchester and Leeds (I would suggest that isn't counting HS2 seats over the provision provided by intercity trains) Whilst Crossrail 2 is only adding 10% capacity to London.

 

[j.crocker355]

By the time it opens, It will likely be called the "Charles" line

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk

 

[Bald Rick]

Midland Main Line electrification had a benefit-cost ratio of between 4.5 to 7.2.

Key word there: "had"

 

[infobleep]

That is an interesting question - would developing london further cause the abandonment of valuable infrastructure already constructed elsewhere?

Luckily we can study the data as it stands - the ONS provides subnational breakdowns of population projections out to 2039.

If we strip out only 'all ages' data for each local authority area, and calculate the percentage population change between 2014-2039.
You can then sort the dataset by population increase, only 11 local authority areas have projected negative population growth.

Those are:
Barrow-in-Furness
Isles of Scilly
Copeland
Richmondshire
Hyndburn
Cumbria
Blackburn with Darwen
Allerdale
Blackpool
Redcar And Cleveland
South Lakeland

However, Burnley also shows zero population growth.

Of these, only five shows a bigger than 2.0% population reduction, which leaves:
Barrow-in-Furness
Isles of Scilly
Copeland
Richmondshire
Hyndburn

The Isles of Scilly has a reduction of ~10%, but only has a population of 2,000 to start with and isn't really relevant to this discussion.

The remaining areas only have a population in 2039 of 256,000 people and will show a decrease of 15,000 people relative to 2014.

So even at current rates the growth of London is hardly going to lead to a dystopian abandoned north.



Is that a bad thing?
If what we know about the dynamism of large urban areas is true, imagine the wonders that would come out of such a conglomeration.

Perhaps if they built some railway lines and underwater tunnels between the Isle of Scilly islands, population growth might occur.

On a serious note, no one has mentioned the South East contributing. Surely if CR2 benefits them, such as being able to run more longer distance services into Waterloo and stop more of them at Clapham Junction, they should contribute to the funding. Are South East local authorities part of the remaining 50% contribution?

 

[The Ham]

Perhaps if they built some railway lines and underwater tunnels between the Isle of Scilly islands, population growth might occur.

On a serious note, no one has mentioned the South East contributing. Surely if CR2 benefits them, such as being able to run more longer distance services into Waterloo and stop more of them at Clapham Junction, they should contribute to the funding. Are South East local authorities part of the remaining 50% contribution?

I refer you to the amount of subsidy that is received by the SWT franchise, after the NR grant it is in negative....

 

[infobleep]

I refer you to the amount of subsidy that is received by the SWT franchise, after the NR grant it is in negative....

Are the finances of TfL in the positive?

 

[HSTEd]

Fairly sure the SWT net-contribution alone covers the interest costs on government debt to the amount required to build CR2.

 

[The Ham]

Are the finances of TfL in the positive?

They are due to be post Crossrail (Elizabeth Line).

However I was responding to the post starting that the South East should contribute towards Crossrail 2 as the SWT franchise would benefit from it too.

 

[infobleep]

They are due to be post Crossrail (Elizabeth Line).

However I was responding to the post starting that the South East should contribute towards Crossrail 2 as the SWT franchise would benefit from it too.

Although I mentioned SWT, I was thinking more of contributions from local authorities, as it is local authorities in London paying towards Crossrail 2.

However if SWT are making a loss then perhaps it a moot point, as perhaps the only local authorizes that should contribute are those who have a profitable train service running through their area.

 

[swt_passenger]

Can I please refer back to a moderator's red ink here:

http://www.railforums.co.uk/showpost.php?p=3068090&postcount=40

We are slipping back into 'who gets what' territory again. I'm disappointed that a thread that started off discussing Crossrail 2 infrastructure changes was so well hijacked after only a couple of pages...

 

[The Ham]

Can I please refer back to a moderator's red ink here:

http://www.railforums.co.uk/showpost.php?p=3068090&postcount=40

We are slipping back into 'who gets what' territory again. I'm disappointed that a thread that started off discussing Crossrail 2 infrastructure changes was so well hijacked after only a couple of pages...

There's a fine line between that A should get this because B has that and where is the funding for "that" which B is getting. I would suggest that the recent posts are the latter.

 

[The Ham]

Although I mentioned SWT, I was thinking more of contributions from local authorities, as it is local authorities in London paying towards Crossrail 2.

However if SWT are making a loss then perhaps it a moot point, as perhaps the only local authorizes that should contribute are those who have a profitable train service running through their area.

SWT are receiving a negative subsidy (i.e. paying more than they are getting).

 

[MontyP]

To get back onto the thread of impact of CR2 on existing services, has there been any discussion about extending some of the services that would terminate at Wimbledon to Sutton in place of Thameslink? Thameslink from Blackfriars would then turnaround at Wimbledon. This would give a far more direct / quicker service from the intermediate stations Wimbledon-Sutton into central London.

 

[swt_passenger]

To get back onto the thread of impact of CR2 on existing services, has there been any discussion about extending some of the services that would terminate at Wimbledon to Sutton in place of Thameslink? Thameslink from Blackfriars would then turnaround at Wimbledon. This would give a far more direct / quicker service from the intermediate stations Wimbledon-Sutton into central London.

I've not seen any suggestion of that possibility in anything official.

 

[450.emu]

Get a few "garages" in that space, you'll make a fortune.

You may find that in most parts of West London, especially Hounslow and Southall, those "garages" are houses for migrants staying under the radar. Quite a few people have converted garages into "stdio flats", and only now the Councils are dealing with the matter

I notice they are upgrading / replacing the OHLE on the Lea Valley line between Tottenham Hale and Angel Road. Are they still planning a new station or renaming one for the housing development to go there (Meridian Water?)

 

[plcd1]

You may find that in most parts of West London, especially Hounslow and Southall, those "garages" are houses for migrants staying under the radar. Quite a few people have converted garages into "stdio flats", and only now the Councils are dealing with the matter

I notice they are upgrading / replacing the OHLE on the Lea Valley line between Tottenham Hale and Angel Road. Are they still planning a new station or renaming one for the housing development to go there (Meridian Water?)

Yes - a press release has just been released announcing the start of construction of Meridian Water station. Work is also underway at Northumberland Park for its rebuild. Piled foundations for the masts for the extra track are also evident at Tottenham Hale stn and to the south.

 

[Olaf]

I refer you to the amount of subsidy that is received by the SWT franchise, after the NR grant it is in negative....

The Wessex route is cash - positive - including the NR funding - to a significant extent - see latest figurers.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Yes - a press release has just been released announcing the start of construction of Meridian Water station. Work is also underway at Northumberland Park for its rebuild. Piled foundations for the masts for the extra track are also evident at Tottenham Hale stn and to the south.

To be clear, Meridian Water will replace Angel Road. So, although technically it is a new station, it won't be an additional station.

 

[kevin_roche]

The Crossrail 2 Scheme will now go forward to the summer 2020 spending review according to a story in Building.

https://www.building.co.uk/news/tra...ith-crossrail-2-business-case/5104610.article

Crossrail 2's business case is up to scratch, according to the transport department.

Transport for London (TfL) has said the strategic outline business case (SOBC) Crossrail 2 submitted to the government last June has met Treasury green book guidance.

This sets out a framework for the appraisal and evaluation of all policies, programmes and projects in terms of making a case.

TfL said: "It was confirmed that the SOBC is technically robust at this stage of development. The [department] commented on the high quality of the document and stated no further work is required on the SOBC at this time and it could therefore be used to support a decision on the project at the next spending review."

That's good news and we can hope they will use what they should have learned from Crossrail 1 to ensure it is delivered within budget.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

The Crossrail 2 Scheme will now go forward to the summer 2020 spending review according to a story in Building.
https://www.building.co.uk/news/tra...ith-crossrail-2-business-case/5104610.article

That's good news and we can hope they will use what they should have learned from Crossrail 1 to ensure it is delivered within budget.

And on time might I add?

 

[hwl]

And on time might I add?

It was always planned to take about 2 years longer initially. The reality in terms of cashflow spreading (it is 1.5x CR1 in work terms) is that it will also be phased opening which will help spread the workload of key trades over a longer period which helps avoid CR1 type issues.