Covid restrictions to end on 19th July

[LAX54]

Flu isn't as catchy as covid is, this was scientifically confirmed very early on in the pandemic and is backed up by the number of cases we're seeing now even amongst a 50-70% immune population.

Aa for face coverings, perhaps a far eastern approach would be sensible going forward; no legal or company rules enforcing them, but a responsibility on people to wear them if they're travelling on busy trains and buses or shopping whilst feeling mildly rough (ie. coughing and sneezing a lot, cold or mild 'fluey' symptoms).

Masks...as you say in the Far East, they are common every day and have been for years, yet they did not seem to help them at all when it came to the virus

 

[NorthKent1989]

Flu isn't as catchy as covid is, this was scientifically confirmed very early on in the pandemic and is backed up by the number of cases we're seeing now even amongst a 50-70% immune population.

Aa for face coverings, perhaps a far eastern approach would be sensible going forward; no legal or company rules enforcing them, but a responsibility on people to wear them if they're travelling on busy trains and buses or shopping whilst feeling mildly rough (ie. coughing and sneezing a lot, cold or mild 'fluey' symptoms).

Cases don’t equate to deaths though, cases just means we have to live with Covid

 

[greyman42]

But if everyone is applying their own rules, in a choice that might a big difference to other people (depending which set of "evidence" you choose to believe). Who is to say who's right?

It's like saying that everyone can make their own decision on whether to smoke in an indoor public place.

There will be no rules, it will be a personal choice, so no one will be right or wrong.
Regarding smoking in a indoor public space, it is illegal. I am not aware of the government having any plans to change that.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Jul 2021 ==

As far as I'm aware there isn't any guidance at all.

Do people need guidance on everything nowadays? We are dropping the majority of restrictions and people need to start thinking for themselves again, as we did pre covid. It seems to me that some people are happy to carry on these restrictions indefinitely where they don't have to think for themselves, and just rely on rules set by the government to lead a zombie like existence.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Jul 2021 ==

"Snide".

It's a genuine, polite way of phrasing the question without pressuring people into having to reveal personal information that they may not be comfortable with...

Well the answer to the question would be "yes" or "no" so asking that question is rather pointless. Why not just ask "have you got an exemption"?

 

[P Binnersley]

The R number for Covid-19 before any precautions were taken (early 2020) is estimated as 3.9 (Imperial College)

The 1918 and 1968 flu pandemics were 1.80. Season flu averages around 1.28. (Biomedical Central)

This means that to bring the R number <1 requires 75% of the population to have resistance through vaccination and/or infection with no precautions.

In practice some people will take precautions (wear face covering, work from home etc.). so with 69% vaccinated (whole population, one done) hopefully we can get the R number below 1.0.

 

[Watershed]

As to how it will be enforced im not clear as i don't know under what legal powers the condition of carriage are enabled now and enforced other than BTP are usually involved.

If an operator's conditions of carriage are changed, or even if they simply keep a 'masks compulsory' policy, it could fall into the territory of trespass (which is criminalised by several different offences in different circumstances) if you refuse to leave.

 

[quantinghome]

Masks...as you say in the Far East, they are common every day and have been for years, yet they did not seem to help them at all when it came to the virus

Eh? Most far east countries have managed Covid far better than Europe or the US.

 

[greyman42]

The ongoing obsession with hand sanitizing is the same. It's been proven that surface transmission is not significant, but we still see shops and other places 'encouraging' hand sanitizing on entry. The same applies to the obsession some places have to disinfecting surfaces - I was in a cafe where I was asked to wait so they could sanitize the chair after the previous occupant. I very much doubt I would catch covid from sitting on the same chair.

It was not that long ago that we were being told that you could catch Covid from parcels and letters and many took that one in.

 

[Domh245]

The R number for Covid-19 before any precautions were taken (early 2020) is estimated as 3.9 (Imperial College)

The 1918 and 1968 flu pandemics were 1.80. Season flu averages around 1.28. (Biomedical Central)

This means that to bring the R number <1 requires 75% of the population to have resistance through vaccination and/or infection with no precautions.

In practice some people will take precautions (wear face covering, work from home etc.). so with 69% vaccinated (whole population, one done) hopefully we can get the R number below 1.0.

We've moved on quite a way from that original 'wild-type' covid. Alpha variant R0 is estimated at 4-5, Delta is estimated at 5-8. The thresholds for 'herd immunity' have been revised upwards by quite a margin as a result of the variants

 

[greyman42]

Can't disagree with you there! Throughout the pandemic, the lack of timely advice for people responsible for implementing "covid-secure" policies who don't have any background in virology, biology, or anything else even vaguely relevant, has been one of the major shortcomings of the government, and IMO responsible for most of the ridiculous restrictions we saw early on. My mum is in a similar boat (part of the team that's figuring out how to deal with covid and make the workplace covid secure) for the university she works for and, bless her, she hasn't a clue what to do.

I think we need to drop the "covid secure" phrase as there is no such thing in real life.

 

[DerekC]

I think we need to drop the "covid secure" phrase as there is no such thing in real life.

Unfortunately that's the phrase that Government insists on for the notice we have to put outside our village hall, as premises accessible to the public. We could try putting "Covid risk reduced as far as reasonably practicable subject to hirers complying with conditions of hire, behaving sensibly and obeying precautions recommended" - but people probably wouldn't read it anyway!

 

[Failed Unit]

Just moving onto something slightly different track and trace. Now every is supposed to scan into a pub / cafe. This will of course go on the 19th (or will it). But are people noticing that not many establishments ask now? Never seen the point when sat outside, but some places insisted on it. i can’t recall the last time I was asked to scan.

 

[edwin_m]

There will be no rules, it will be a personal choice, so no one will be right or wrong.
Regarding smoking in a indoor public space, it is illegal. I am not aware of the government having any plans to change that.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Jul 2021 ==


Do people need guidance on everything nowadays? We are dropping the majority of restrictions and people need to start thinking for themselves again, as we did pre covid. It seems to me that some people are happy to carry on these restrictions indefinitely where they don't have to think for themselves, and just rely on rules set by the government to lead a zombie like existence.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Jul 2021 ==


Well the answer to the question would be "yes" or "no" so asking that question is rather pointless. Why not just ask "have you got an exemption"?

That's my point. If there are no rules or guidance laid down, then nobody really has any idea what is right or wrong. The posts on here show that there is a wide range of interpretations.

That might not matter if it was just someone putting themselves at risk, though we do have rules for that sort of situation on things like seatbelts and motorcycle helmets. But the likelihood that not wearing a mask increases the risk to others means it's more like smoking, where there are laws about what you can or can't do.

The government should provide rules or at the very least non-enforceable guidelines. If they think wearing masks or whatever other rule has no benefit, they should say so. Otherwise people will make their own personal guidance, which may or may not be appropriate, and some will seek to impose it on those around them.

 

[liam456]

That's my point. If there are no rules or guidance laid down, then nobody really has any idea what is right or wrong. The posts on here show that there is a wide range of interpretations.

That might not matter if it was just someone putting themselves at risk, though we do have rules for that sort of situation on things like seatbelts and motorcycle helmets. But the likelihood that not wearing a mask increases the risk to others means it's more like smoking, where there are laws about what you can or can't do.

The government should provide rules or at the very least non-enforceable guidelines. If they think wearing masks or whatever other rule has no benefit, they should say so. Otherwise people will make their own personal guidance, which may or may not be appropriate, and some will seek to impose it on those around them.

I think people know what they think is the right thing to do, it's exactly what they're terrified of the government no longer saying they HAVE to do!

 

[greyman42]

Otherwise people will make their own personal guidance, which may or may not be appropriate, and some will seek to impose it on those around them.

The vast majority will not care less what those around them are doing. You seem to be just looking for problems in every nook and cranny.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Jul 2021 ==

Grant Shapps has just said to the transport committee that he will fully support train and tube operators in mandating the wearing of masks as a condition of carriage beyond 19th July. He says that whilst the Government's position is to move from law to guidance and common sense in most circumstances, he believes there are locations such as busy train and tube lines where it will be "entirely reasonable" to expect continued mask wearing and he is happy for individual operators to enforce this on their own terms, on a company by company basis.

This being the case, i would consider it as the first Government U-turn since the announcement regarding lifting restrictions.

 

[nedchester]

If an operator's conditions of carriage are changed, or even if they simply keep a 'masks compulsory' policy, it could fall into the territory of trespass (which is criminalised by several different offences in different circumstances) if you refuse to leave.

I would say that could be challenged on a number of levels.

Also, I seem to remember that to change the NCoC requires a consultation period!

 

[Failed Unit]

The vast majority will not care less what those around them are doing. You seem to be just looking for problems in every nook and cranny.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Jul 2021 ==


This being the case, i would consider it as the first Government U-turn since the announcement regarding lifting restrictions.

Indeed. LNER are the governments pet so see what they do. But we will have some routes where it is allowed others where it isn’t. Mass confusion where operators share routes such as York - Newcastle.

Back to drinking coffee slowly.

I still don’t see why IC operators can give us the choice. Say coaches A and B. Large Scull and crossbones on the doors, biohazard symbols on each seat stating by sitting in this coach you will die as you are not wearing a mask. I would book it in a heartbeat. (The have quiet coaches so why not mask free ones)

 

[Freightmaster]

I still don’t see why IC operators can give us the choice. Say coaches A and B. Large Scull and crossbones on the doors, biohazard symbols on each seat stating by sitting in this coach you will die as you are not wearing a mask. I would book it in a heartbeat.

Sounds like the set up for the plot of a disaster film to me...

(image is the movie poster for the film 'The Cassandra Crossing')






MARK

 

[Watershed]

I would say that could be challenged on a number of levels.

I'm not so sure, unfortunately.

Also, I seem to remember that to change the NCoC requires a consultation period!

The public weren't consulted the last few times the NRCoT have been changed.

To be clear, I'm not suggesting the NRCoT (as in, the conditions relevant to National Rail TOCs) will be changed. I'd be more worried that TfL will try something on.

 

[island]

i fear that some transport companies will still mandate mask wearing. Is that legal?

Yes, as long as done properly.

Just claim an exemption.

Most major airlines in the UK have stated they do not recognise self-declared exemptions and require evidence, such as a doctor letter.

Don’t you just love the condescending comment “have you forgotten your mask”.

Yes after a year of continuous bombardment of sanctimonious **** I’ve just forgotten all about....

This is the most neutral way of asking, apart perhaps from “do you need a mask” if the person is also giving them out.

Grant Shapps has just said to the transport committee that he will fully support train and tube operators in mandating the wearing of masks as a condition of carriage beyond 19th July. He says that whilst the Government's position is to move from law to guidance and common sense in most circumstances, he believes there are locations such as busy train and tube lines where it will be "entirely reasonable" to expect continued mask wearing and he is happy for individual operators to enforce this on their own terms, on a company by company basis.

This is a recipe for disaster.

With no, or a very poor, legal basis for requiring face coverings in law, train companies would have to make it a condition of the transport contract. And it could not then apply to people who bought their tickets before the change was made, amongst others, as that would constitute unilateral variation of a contract, which is impossible.

Grant Shapps needs to be reminded of the party line. Guidance means guidance.

I suppose its not the end of the world if masks remain mandated on some short,locally managed services, so long as longer distance services aren't included.

I fail to understand the distinction.

Also they need to not be compulsory on platforms as well.

They have never been required on open-air platforms in English National Rail stations.

 

[yorksrob]

They have never been required on open-air platforms in English National Rail stations.

By law maybe.

It hasn't stopped various companies trying to enforce it though.

 

[brad465]

We've moved on quite a way from that original 'wild-type' covid. Alpha variant R0 is estimated at 4-5, Delta is estimated at 5-8. The thresholds for 'herd immunity' have been revised upwards by quite a margin as a result of the variants

There comes a point where Covid gets/has got so infectious that it cannot be controlled beyond existing immunity, no matter how strict a lockdown we have, and we just have to accept a level of cost will come with this. To quote Q from Skyfall "it's like trying to solve a Rubik's cube that's fighting back".

 

[yorksrob]

Sounds like the set up for the plot of a disaster film to me...

(image is the movie poster for the film 'The Cassandra Crossing')






MARK

Superb film

 

[brad465]

Sounds like the set up for the plot of a disaster film to me...
MARK

Superb film

Maybe that film was a warning, we seem to be following it somewhat so far, although if that's the case who knows what will represent the crash at the end.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

There comes a point where Covid gets/has got so infectious that it cannot be controlled beyond existing immunity, no matter how strict a lockdown we have, and we just have to accept a level of cost will come with this. To quote Q from Skyfall "it's like trying to solve a Rubik's cube that's fighting back".

The biggest issue we have with this approach by the govt is they are clearly accepting that case numbers will rise exponentially and whilst im largely OK that collateral damage in deaths will be much reduced there could huge disruption from people being pinged by the app. OK some people will delete it but plenty of people will be responsible especially those where the business pays them to stay at home on full pay so would imagine we will some disruption in public transport and NHS staffing and thus there could be unintended outcomes.

 

[island]

The biggest issue we have with this approach by the govt is they are clearly accepting that case numbers will rise exponentially and whilst im largely OK that collateral damage in deaths will be much reduced there could huge disruption from people being pinged by the app. OK some people will delete it but plenty of people will be responsible especially those where the business pays them to stay at home on full pay so would imagine we will some disruption in public transport and NHS staffing and thus there could be unintended outcomes.

From mid-August (IIRC) there will be no need for fully-vaccinated people to self-isolate if they are a close contact of a positive case.

(There is not and never has been a legal requirement for anyone "pinged by the app" to do so, FWIW.)

 

[Domh245]

There comes a point where Covid gets/has got so infectious that it cannot be controlled beyond existing immunity, no matter how strict a lockdown we have, and we just have to accept a level of cost will come with this. To quote Q from Skyfall "it's like trying to solve a Rubik's cube that's fighting back".

Not quite, there are diseases with higher R0s (Measles at 12-18 is a prime example) but these are (/were) kept in check by very high levels of vaccination. I can't really comment on whether the measles (/mmr) vaccine is 'better' in that it gives sterilising immunity, has higher efficacy to explain why it seems better at supressing the disease, or possibly that we don't obsessively test for measles the same way we do now for SARS-CoV2

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

From mid-August (IIRC) there will be no need for fully-vaccinated people to self-isolate if they are a close contact of a positive case.

(There is not and never has been a legal requirement for anyone "pinged by the app" to do so, FWIW.)

Thats 40 days time we will have run up 100k's of additional cases by then. Mind you track and trace element effectiveness has been questionable and will become swamped so i suspect it will be left to individuals to decide so im probably being over pessimistic.

 

[NorthKent1989]

It’s scary the amount of people on Facebook who don’t want a return to normal and are still stuck in March 2020, they don’t seem to realise that lockdowns cost money, at this point I’ve told a fair few people that if they themselves are scared of a virus with a 99.7% survival rate then they should stay home and let society get back to normal and move on

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

It’s scary the amount of people on Facebook who don’t want a return to normal and are still stuck in March 2020, they don’t seem to realise that lockdowns cost money, at this point I’ve told a fair few people that if they themselves are scared of a virus with a 99.7% survival rate then they should stay home and let society get back to normal and move on

Doing away with furlough for all but business involved with international travel is what needed to happen on 19th July.

 

[brad465]

Not quite, there are diseases with higher R0s (Measles at 12-18 is a prime example) but these are (/were) kept in check by very high levels of vaccination. I can't really comment on whether the measles (/mmr) vaccine is 'better' in that it gives sterilising immunity, has higher efficacy to explain why it seems better at supressing the disease, or possibly that we don't obsessively test for measles the same way we do now for SARS-CoV2

Yes we're fortunate that they don't mutate in a evasive way and vaccines provide very long lasting immunity. For now Covid has not mutated to completely evade vaccines, but if it does the best I think we can hope for is giving updated boosters to the same cohorts who get annual flu shots as a minimum and hoping the virus follows natural laws of mutations to be less serious long term.