Covid : Infection rates v death rates and a possible second wave

[DannyMich2018]

Trust me I don't really want a lockdown but all the figures are pointing in the wrong direction I'm afraid, cases are going through the roof, 137 UK deaths today, 143 yesterday, tomorrows hopefully be lower but could well be over 100 again. Northern Ireland are locking down, stricter measures are in force in Scotland, Wales are considering a national one, Mr Starmer wants one too, it's just a matter of time now I'm, I'm not suggesting long one just one for a short period of time.

 

[Yew]

Trust me I don't really want a lockdown but all the figures are pointing in the wrong direction I'm afraid, cases are going through the roof, 137 UK deaths today, 143 yesterday, tomorrows hopefully be lower but could well be over 100 again. Northern Ireland are locking down, stricter measures are in force in Scotland, Wales are considering a national one, Mr Starmer wants one too, it's just a matter of time now I'm, I'm not suggesting long one just one for a short period of time.

Just like the three weeks that the last one was?

 

[birchesgreen]

Trust me I don't really want a lockdown but all the figures are pointing in the wrong direction I'm afraid, cases are going through the roof, 137 UK deaths today, 143 yesterday, tomorrows hopefully be lower but could well be over 100 again. Northern Ireland are locking down, stricter measures are in force in Scotland, Wales are considering a national one, Mr Starmer wants one too, it's just a matter of time now I'm, I'm not suggesting long one just one for a short period of time.

Yes but as the evidence from Israel indicates, politicians say it will be a short "circuit breaker" lockdown but then it gets extended. Can anyone trust a politician ever again?

 

[Richard Scott]

I agree with your point, although forgive me for being pedantic, but living in a cave isn't exactly safe either, what if it collapses and one is trapped?

Oops, forgot that, not sure what he'll do now!

 

[trebor79]

Trust me I don't really want a lockdown but all the figures are pointing in the wrong direction I'm afraid, cases are going through the roof,

Actually they aren't. 19,000 positive tests (I know they are called cases, but clinically they aren't unless symptomatic) announced today. But if you look at the data by specimen date it's been flat for a week now, perhaps just starting to trend down.
Manchester is clearly on a down trend now.
Boris is right to prevaricate, even if a "circuit break" was effective (and I don't for a moment believe it would be), it may not be necessary anyway, so why incur the costs and harms of doing it?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Actually they aren't. 19,000 positive tests (I know they are called cases, but clinically they aren't unless symptomatic) announced today. But if you look at the data by specimen date it's been flat for a week now, perhaps just starting to trend down.

It isn't. It's continuing its increase.

 

[adc82140]

It's trending flat in England. Down a bit in Wales. Up a bit in Scotland & NI.

This is ignoring the last four days on the "by specimen date" chart, as these will be incomplete at this stage.

 

[Tetchytyke]

afraid we have possibly the most incompetent government in our nation's history.

Whilst that is, of course, completely true, focusing on Johnson's ineptitude rather glosses over the fact that pretty much every other country on earth is acting in a similar way.

Even Donald Trump's US government has put up the shutters at the border to prevent the infection.

Yet we can pick apart these figures instantly on an Internet forum; why is nobody at the top of government questioning it?

If it truly is "obvious" that this is the wrong strategy, one would expect greater divergence on opinion throughout the world. And yet there isn't very much divergence at all. People focus on Sweden but, when you drill down, they have really largely done the same things as everyone else, they've just done it on a voluntary basis.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Oct 2020 ==

My favourite political vlogger, who lives in the North, thinks that poverty/low incomes plays a large part in this: the idea that statutory sick pay is not enough to live on means many will refuse to isolate, either by not getting tested and/or not picking up the phone from T&T.

Absolutely, and the fact that this government still hasn't cottoned on to this and helped address this is a huge part of the problem.

The financial effects of being quarantined can be catastrophic, even if you get sick pay SSP is simply not enough money for anyone to live on.

There was a big superspreader event at the Husqvarna factory near Darlington in the spring for this very reason.

 

[bramling]

It's trending flat in England. Down a bit in Wales. Up a bit in Scotland & NI.

This is ignoring the last four days on the "by specimen date" chart, as these will be incomplete at this stage.

Van Tam nailed that one the other day unfortunately - “these figures are only going to go one way and that’s up”.

 

[DB]

If it truly is "obvious" that this is the wrong strategy, one would expect greater divergence on opinion throughout the world. And yet there isn't very much divergence at all. People focus on Sweden but, when you drill down, they have really largely done the same things as everyone else, they've just done it on a voluntary basis.

Because none of them wants to stick their head above the parapet, and in political terms it's safer to do what everyone else is foing.

Sweden really hasn't 'largely done the same' - its restrictions are much lighter than in most countries, and crutially have remained consistent throughout, with none of the changing every five minutes which we see in this country.

 

[Dent]

Van Tam nailed that one the other day unfortunately - “these figures are only going to go one way and that’s up”.

It's too early to be sure, but the graph of positives by sample date does show early signs of a peak emerging on the 7th October.

They must come down at some point, they can't keep going up for all eternity as for one thing the population is finite. Unqualified pronouncements such as "these figures are only going to go one way and that’s up" are extremely unhelpful, and are obviously not literally true.

 

[takno]

It's too early to be sure, but the graph of positives by sample date does show early signs of a peak emerging on the 7th October.

They must come down at some point, they can't keep going up for all eternity as for one thing the population is finite. Unqualified pronouncements such as "these figures are only going to go one way and that’s up" are extremely unhelpful, and are obviously not literally true.

You say it's not true, but they wrote the spreadsheet that generates the numbers, so I think they're in a better position to know what kind of mistakes they've put in it.

 

[Domh245]

You say it's not true, but they wrote the spreadsheet that generates the numbers, so I think they're in a better position to know what kind of mistakes they've put in it.

The scientific advisors don't write the spreadsheet, they just get the numbers same as anyone else. The only difference is they have more access to a few more sources and a better ability to interpret it. That said, unless we're we get a couple of days with significantly backdated results, there's a clear plateau (at least) forming. I would suggest that this is in no small part down to a blitz on testing amongst university students around that time that has subsequently subsided but we shall have to see

 

[bramling]

It's too early to be sure, but the graph of positives by sample date does show early signs of a peak emerging on the 7th October.

They must come down at some point, they can't keep going up for all eternity as for one thing the population is finite. Unqualified pronouncements such as "these figures are only going to go one way and that’s up" are extremely unhelpful, and are obviously not literally true.

I presume he was implying that there was the likelihood of “cases” existing that hadn’t yet found their way to the figures for the day in question.

 

[trebor79]

It's too early to be sure, but the graph of positives by sample date does show early signs of a peak emerging on the 7th October.

They must come down at some point, they can't keep going up for all eternity as for one thing the population is finite. Unqualified pronouncements such as "these figures are only going to go one way and that’s up" are extremely unhelpful, and are obviously not literally true.

I presume he was implying that there was the likelihood of “cases” existing that hadn’t yet found their way to the figures for the day in question.

Yes, he was specifically talking about the previous 3 or 4 days figures, because the graph looked like there was a huge decrease towards the end - obvious for anyone with the slightest understanding, but given they took time to explain what a heat map was they needed to make sure they pointed that out. He was talking about the results of swabs coming in over a period of a few days, rather than suggesting future "case" numbers were only ever going to go up.

 

[Dent]

Yes, he was specifically talking about the previous 3 or 4 days figures, because the graph looked like there was a huge decrease towards the end - obvious for anyone with the slightest understanding, but given they took time to explain what a heat map was they needed to make sure they pointed that out. He was talking about the results of swabs coming in over a period of a few days, rather than suggesting future "case" numbers were only ever going to go up.

It certainly would make more sense if it was referring to the figures already posted for past days, but that wasn't clear from the out of context quote in this thread. The way it was quoted as having "nailed" a suggestion that the trend had flattened did give the impression that it was a claim that the trend would never flatten.

That would of course be a completely absurd claim, but it wouldn't be the first absurd assumption to be made by the government or media.

 

[brad465]

With infection levels rising widely those calling for an alternative strategy which is more relaxed and sustainable will probably not noticed much and/or highly ridiculed, however once this peak is clearly behind us I expect they'll be in a very strong position to push for such a strategy, especially if this decisive peak is seen shortly before the end of the furlough scheme in its current form at the end of this month.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Because none of them wants to stick their head above the parapet, and in political terms it's safer to do what everyone else is foing.

I don't agree, political history is full of countries doing something different to attempt to steal a march on rivals.

If it was as "obvious" as many on this board seem to think, more countries would deviate from the norm. Some politicians are useless, but not all of them are.

Sweden really hasn't 'largely done the same' - its restrictions are much lighter than in most countries, and crutially have remained consistent throughout, with none of the changing every five minutes which we see in this country.

Sweden has a more civic society and so restrictions were voluntary. But the main metrics, such as spending and public transport usage, show that Swedish people did as they were asked and stayed at home.

Is Sweden's coronavirus strategy a cautionary tale or a success story? | New Scientist

Despite claims that soft lockdown was a good idea, so far Sweden has had more covid-19 related deaths than its Scandinavian neighbours with little difference in economic slowdown

www.newscientist.com

Voluntary restrictions work as well as legal ones,” says the architect of Sweden’s strategy, chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell.

This appears to be true, in Sweden at least. The measures did work nearly as well in getting people to change their behaviour. Adam Sheridan at the University of Copenhagen in Denmark, for instance, has used data from a bank to compare spending patterns up to April in Sweden and Denmark. Denmark introduced a compulsory lockdown on 11 March, one of the first in Europe.

Sheridan found that spending – an indicator of behaviour as well as economic activity – fell by nearly as much in Sweden as in Denmark: 25 per cent compared with 29 per cent.

Similarly, data from the Citymapper phone app, which helps people plan their travel routes, suggests that travel in Stockholm fell to 40 per cent of the normal level.

The idea that Sweden carried on as normal is, quite simply, wrong.

 

[bengley]

I don't agree, political history is full of countries doing something different to attempt to steal a march on rivals.

If it was as "obvious" as many on this board seem to think, more countries would deviate from the norm. Some politicians are useless, but not all of them are.



Sweden has a more civic society and so restrictions were voluntary. But the main metrics, such as spending and public transport usage, show that Swedish people did as they were asked and stayed at home.

Is Sweden's coronavirus strategy a cautionary tale or a success story? | New Scientist

Despite claims that soft lockdown was a good idea, so far Sweden has had more covid-19 related deaths than its Scandinavian neighbours with little difference in economic slowdown

www.newscientist.com

The idea that Sweden carried on as normal is, quite simply, wrong.

Although travel in England fell to 5% of its normal level, so they were certainly more normal than us

 

[DB]

The idea that Sweden carried on as normal is, quite simply, wrong.

Nobody is saying that they carried on 'as normal' - but their restrictions were a lot lighter than this country, and have remained consistent throughout.

 

[Bikeman78]

Sweden has a more civic society and so restrictions were voluntary. But the main metrics, such as spending and public transport usage, show that Swedish people did as they were asked and stayed at home.

Is Sweden's coronavirus strategy a cautionary tale or a success story? | New Scientist

Despite claims that soft lockdown was a good idea, so far Sweden has had more covid-19 related deaths than its Scandinavian neighbours with little difference in economic slowdown

www.newscientist.com

The idea that Sweden carried on as normal is, quite simply, wrong.

As regards staying at home, the UK was heading that way before lockdown. Week commencing 9th March, passenger loads into Cardiff were already down by around 50%. Week commencing 16th March, they plummeted even more. Off peak valleys trains were almost dead though a full service was provided until Saturday 21st. The last busy day I can recall in Cardiff was Saturday 14th which was supposed to be the Wales v Scotland Six Nations rugby. For some reason the match was cancelled even though the Scottish fans had already travelled to Wales. So they spent all day filling up the pubs instead.

A key difference in Sweden is that they never closed schools. This probably explains why they have so far avoided the recent surge seen in several other countries.

 

[DB]

As regards staying at home, the UK was heading that way before lockdown. Week commencing 9th March, passenger loads into Cardiff were already down by around 50%. Week commencing 16th March, they plummeted even more.

The week of 16th March Leeds station was absolutely dead - in the early evening, when it would normally be pretty busy, numbers were at the sort of levels normally seen at midnight on a wet Tuesday in February.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Nobody is saying that they carried on 'as normal' - but their restrictions were a lot lighter than this country, and have remained consistent throughout.

However, as has been repeatedly pointed out, people have taken their own action over and above them.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Oct 2020 ==

A key difference in Sweden is that they never closed schools. This probably explains why they have so far avoided the recent surge seen in several other countries.

Did they close Universities? Those seem to be the main thing that is driving the UK's latest spike.

 

[trebor79]

As regards staying at home, the UK was heading that way before lockdown.

Yes, I remember noticing that the usually crush-loaded XC train I caught from Peterborough to Ely once a week started to think out in early February. By mis to late February I was able to get a seat without difficulty and recall asking on a thread on these forums in early March "Is it just me or are the trains a lot less busy than usual?".
I do wonder if we might have ended up in a far better place overall if the government hadn't been panicked into a lockdown and shut schools approach. You don't have to do very much thinking to see that there is nothing but question marks beyond such actions. Alas, we are where we are.
The pushback from Manchester might indicate to the government that it's gone about as far as possible with restricting personal liberties and business viability. I'm unclear as to whether the local politicians are pushing to remain in Tier 1, or if what they really want is Tier 3+++ and a blank cheque from the Treasury. Fortunately Mr Sunak seems to be making clear that there are no more blank cheques available on his watch, so the choice may come down to Tier 1 or Tier 3. If the debate concludes Tier 3 is too damaging for too little gain, then this may be the tipping point at which a more measured strategy begins to emerge.

 

[Bikeman78]

However, as has been repeatedly pointed out, people have taken their own action over and above them.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Oct 2020 ==



Did they close Universities? Those seem to be the main thing that is driving the UK's latest spike.

Yes they closed Universities and schools for their equivalent of A level students. Both are up and running again.

 

[takno]

Yes, I remember noticing that the usually crush-loaded XC train I caught from Peterborough to Ely once a week started to think out in early February. By mis to late February I was able to get a seat without difficulty and recall asking on a thread on these forums in early March "Is it just me or are the trains a lot less busy than usual?".
I do wonder if we might have ended up in a far better place overall if the government hadn't been panicked into a lockdown and shut schools approach. You don't have to do very much thinking to see that there is nothing but question marks beyond such actions. Alas, we are where we are.
The pushback from Manchester might indicate to the government that it's gone about as far as possible with restricting personal liberties and business viability. I'm unclear as to whether the local politicians are pushing to remain in Tier 1, or if what they really want is Tier 3+++ and a blank cheque from the Treasury. Fortunately Mr Sunak seems to be making clear that there are no more blank cheques available on his watch, so the choice may come down to Tier 1 or Tier 3. If the debate concludes Tier 3 is too damaging for too little gain, then this may be the tipping point at which a more measured strategy begins to emerge.

I think the Manchester MPs and authorities are agreed that this local nonsense is completely arbitrary, that Manchester doesn't need special measures over and above other parts of the UK, and that the support for businesses and livelihoods in the local lockdowns is insufficient.

Beyond that they are split between those who think that acceptance and shielding are the appropriate alternative response, and those who think a national circuit breaker is. The principles behind a national circuit breaker being that it's probably shorter, almost certainly more effective, and since it will affect a lot more influential people in the south the government will be forced to fund it properly.

Either way I think Hancock might have finally hit an area where local pride and local leadership is willing to call out his dogmatic insults and abuse

 

[Silverlinky]

18980 new cases reported today, slightly down on yesterdays figures, and only slightly up (8.2%) on Thursday last weeks figures (17540 reported)

Last Thursday those figures came from 254579 PCR tests (positive rate 6.89%), whereas this weeks higher figure has come from 295690 PCR tests (positive rate 6.42%)

 

[brad465]

As regards staying at home, the UK was heading that way before lockdown. Week commencing 9th March, passenger loads into Cardiff were already down by around 50%. Week commencing 16th March, they plummeted even more. Off peak valleys trains were almost dead though a full service was provided until Saturday 21st. The last busy day I can recall in Cardiff was Saturday 14th which was supposed to be the Wales v Scotland Six Nations rugby. For some reason the match was cancelled even though the Scottish fans had already travelled to Wales. So they spent all day filling up the pubs instead.

A key difference in Sweden is that they never closed schools. This probably explains why they have so far avoided the recent surge seen in several other countries.

Not only that but mass gatherings were being called off or postponed before the Government mandated them (the 16th March was when they announced this I believe): these include the Premier league and other domestic leagues postponed the weekend before the Government announcement, the London Marathon, while I recall some work conferences/large meetings in my organisation and other organisations I heard about were changing plans, as well as some local events to me (however Cheltenham was of course a big exception, probably because of Hancock's corrupt acceptance of horse racing donations).

In other words had the Government not mandated such action we would have all taken our own precautions anyway. The rocketing infections late March will have been based on behaviour before all the aforementioned voluntary behaviour changes.

 

[Yew]

18980 new cases reported today, slightly down on yesterdays figures, and only slightly up (8.2%) on Thursday last weeks figures (17540 reported)

Last Thursday those figures came from 254579 PCR tests (positive rate 6.89%), whereas this weeks higher figure has come from 295690 PCR tests (positive rate 6.42%)

Part of me does wonder if this spike is mainly driven by Schools and Students, and would have settled down naturally on it's own?

 

[route101]

Edinburgh on the 18th of March was really quiet. It was that week when it went really quiet. Week before didn't really notice .