Covid : Infection rates v death rates and a possible second wave

[bramling]

Well, quite! Though I'd be OK, my actual core temperature (taken with a proper old mercury thermometer in my gob) is between 36 and 36.5. People do vary a bit (some say that skinny people tend to run higher temperatures - their bodies use more energy to maintain that higher temperature).

I didn’t say anything, having just had a row in a petrol station after being told off for not wearing gloves when using the pump. The thing which annoyed me was that I’d sanitised my hands beforehand, which the guy in the shop would have clearly seen. Needless to say it then kicked off again over masks!

 

[trebor79]

I didn’t say anything, having just had a row in a petrol station after being told off for not wearing gloves when using the pump. The thing which annoyed me was that I’d sanitised my hands beforehand, which the guy in the shop would have clearly seen. Needless to say it then kicked off again over masks!

I had that recently. I couldn't be bothered arguing, just stood until they rang it up on the till.

 

[adc82140]

Do they provide hand sanitiser next to the glove dispenser? If not, I wouldn't be going near the things.

 

[brad465]

The Covid Symptom Study Zoe now thinks we're close to 100,000 symptomatic active cases (96,531 being close to the doubling every 7 days estimate), with the latest estimate for daily new cases being 10,391:

Latest Daily UK COVID-19 Data: Vaccines, Cases, Trends | ZOE

COVID infection & vaccination rates in the UK today, based on public data and reports from millions of users of the ZOE Health Study app

covid.joinzoe.com

The map could do with a 5000+ layer as there are areas on the interactive map above this, which does make the large crimson area more misleading.

 

[Richard Scott]

The Covid Symptom Study Zoe now thinks we're close to 100,000 symptomatic active cases (96,531 being close to the doubling every 7 days situation), with the latest estimate for daily new cases being 10,391:

Latest Daily UK COVID-19 Data: Vaccines, Cases, Trends | ZOE

COVID infection & vaccination rates in the UK today, based on public data and reports from millions of users of the ZOE Health Study app

covid.joinzoe.com

View attachment 83746


View attachment 83747

The map could do with a 5000+ layer as there are areas on the interactive map above this, which does make the large crimson area more misleading.

So that's roughly 1 in 700 people. Hardly a big number.

 

[NorthOxonian]

The Covid Symptom Study Zoe now thinks we're close to 100,000 symptomatic active cases (96,531 being close to the doubling every 7 days estimate), with the latest estimate for daily new cases being 10,391:

Latest Daily UK COVID-19 Data: Vaccines, Cases, Trends | ZOE

COVID infection & vaccination rates in the UK today, based on public data and reports from millions of users of the ZOE Health Study app

covid.joinzoe.com

View attachment 83746


View attachment 83747

The map could do with a 5000+ layer as there are areas on the interactive map above this, which does make the large crimson area more misleading.

The main area that seems to have changed there is East Anglia - which is now mostly at the higher (0.1%+) level. The South West and South Coast still seems to be remaining relatively unaffected, according to their model.

 

[brad465]

The main area that seems to have changed there is East Anglia - which is now mostly at the higher (0.1%+) level. The South West and South Coast still seems to be remaining relatively unaffected, according to their model.

While East Anglia has climbed into that bracket, it's still well below the likes of the North West, where many of the Anglia regions are around 1100-1330 cpm (or 110-130 cp100k). In the NW however Liverpool is 10475 cpm, while Manchester is 7601 cpm, but still shows up in the same crimson shade, hence why I think the study needs to expand the legend to at least have a 5000+ layer.

 

[NorthOxonian]

While East Anglia has climbed into that bracket, it's still well below the likes of the North West, where many of the Anglia regions are around 1100-1330 cpm (or 110-130 cp100k). In the NW however Liverpool is 10475 cpm, while Manchester is 7601 cpm, but still shows up in the same crimson shade, hence why I think the study needs to expand the legend to at least have a 5000+ layer.

There's an even higher figure - it estimates 13000cpm in Lisburn, just south west of Belfast! 1.3% does seem an unrealistically high figure, though, especially as this is estimating symptomatic Covid.

 

[Howardh]

Better news from Bolton, the covid number per 100,000 has now dropped to 175, down from over 200. Although I take that with a pinch of salt, testing has been problematic and also this is over the weekend which may be a factor - albeit testing centres were open yesterday so the results would be through today.

 

[brad465]

There's an even higher figure - it estimates 13000cpm in Lisburn, just south west of Belfast! 1.3% does seem an unrealistically high figure, though, especially as this is estimating symptomatic Covid.

I wonder if they're having problems obtaining reliable data for Northern Ireland; they seem to think the number of daily cases there is 128-1122 per million people, which ranges from being one of the lowest in the UK to runaway top?!?

 

[Crossover]

Seems like another farce, but it would have been just great to have been stuck without a hotel room 300 miles from home at 2100 in the evening!

The thought had crossed my mind. A hotel near us was advertising similar things. Driving is one thing, but what if one arrived at a hotel miles from home, via train, late one evening (i.e. with no travel opportunity home). "I'll just camp out on the patio than, shall I?"

 

[brad465]

Sorry to bring this up again, but now the Zoe study has finally altered its map legend so it's much clearer to see what they believe the geographical distribution of symptomatic cases is (essentially its a north/south divide, with London as an outlier in the south):

Latest Daily UK COVID-19 Data: Vaccines, Cases, Trends | ZOE

COVID infection & vaccination rates in the UK today, based on public data and reports from millions of users of the ZOE Health Study app

covid.joinzoe.com

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 26 Sep 2020 ==

A country who's infection rates I've been following for a while has been India, where because their lockdown didn't really work and restrictions have continued to be eased despite rising cases, they're essentially an example of a mitigation/herd immunity strategy like what we were initially alleged to be proposing. For a time cases were rising exponentially, then at a more constant rate through August, but in recent weeks it looks like they might be turning a corner, with daily new cases decreasing, in turn active cases are now going down as recoveries from the high caseloads at their peak outstrip new cases. Their confirmed cases are near 6 million, although they'll certainly have many times more than that, so considering the low level of restrictions there, if this downward trend continues, it all points to the virus running out of non-immune hosts to infect:

India COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

India Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

Daily deaths also appear to be levelling off, although remain high and probably will take time to drop looking at the time taken to increase, although there is also a grey area in missed reporting, so even their 93,000 death toll maybe an underestimate:

 

[Class 33]

Today's cases 6,042. That's a HUGE drop of 832 from yesterday's 6,874. But I don't see the press/media making a fuss of this. If it was the other way around, they would be guaranteed to be making a fuss of that!

Let's look at the numbers of cases over the past week....

Saturday 19th September - 4,222 cases - a rise of 90 more cases since the previous day
Sunday 20th September - 3,899 cases - a DROP of 523 less cases than the previous day
Monday 21st September - 4,368 cases - a rise of 469 more cases than the previous day
Tuesday 22nd September - 4,926 cases - a rise of 558 more cases than the previous day
Wednesday 23rd September - 6,178 cases - a HUGE rise of 1,252 more cases than the previous day
Thursday 24th September - 6,634 cases - a rise of 456 more cases than the previous day
Friday 25th September - 6.874 cases - a rise of 240 more cases than the previous day
Saturday 26th September - 6,042 cases - A HUGE DROP of 832 less cases than the previous day

Notice towards the end of last week the growth in the surge in cases slowed down a fair bit. And today a huge drop of 832 less cases than yesterday. I could be speaking too soon, but hopefully we have reached the top of this second peak and we are now on the way down again, OR the numbers of cases are now at least roughly stabilising at the moment and the daily rises will not reach over 7,000. Fingers crossed.....

Also the daily deaths. Although the deaths have risen a fair bit over the past few weeks from mostly single digits to as high as 40 on Thursday. Since then they have been going back down again. 35 yesterday, 34 today. Fingers crossed that along with the numbers of new cases, that deaths are definitely going down too.

 

[jtuk]

This is what happens when you take samples too often. I remember when I used to play poker, I wouldn't even look at my balance until I'd played a batch of 100 tournaments, as if you sample much smaller than that the signal to noise ratio is just way too high and you're more likely to make bad decisions based on what to the casual observer might be you playing bad, but is just variance which you need to ignore

 

[Class 33]

Well, even though this is within a short timeframe, things appear to be looking on the positive and encouraging side at the moment according to those stats. Though like I said, I could possibly be speaking too soon. Let's see what happens this week.....

There is too much doom and gloom in the press and media about how much the cases and deaths are going to rise over the coming weeks/months. It's not good for us atall as this doom and gloom. Whitty and Valance saying cases COULD reach 50,000 a day by mid October!!!! I think and really hope that they're going to be proved VERY wrong with that. And also on the ITV News I was just watching, some professor on there predicting that cases AND deaths are going to get a hell of a lot worst over the coming weeks and months.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

And also on the ITV News I was just watching, some professor on there predicting that cases AND deaths are going to get a hell of a lot worst over the coming weeks and months.

That's a given with us going into winter. People spending more time indoors with less ventilation, and respiratory illnesses do tick up around this time yearly. COVID will be no different.

 

[kristiang85]

Today's cases 6,042. That's a HUGE drop of 832 from yesterday's 6,874. But I don't see the press/media making a fuss of this. If it was the other way around, they would be guaranteed to be making a fuss of that!

Let's look at the numbers of cases over the past week....

Saturday 19th September - 4,222 cases - a rise of 90 more cases since the previous day
Sunday 20th September - 3,899 cases - a DROP of 523 less cases than the previous day
Monday 21st September - 4,368 cases - a rise of 469 more cases than the previous day
Tuesday 22nd September - 4,926 cases - a rise of 558 more cases than the previous day
Wednesday 23rd September - 6,178 cases - a HUGE rise of 1,252 more cases than the previous day
Thursday 24th September - 6,634 cases - a rise of 456 more cases than the previous day
Friday 25th September - 6.874 cases - a rise of 240 more cases than the previous day
Saturday 26th September - 6,042 cases - A HUGE DROP of 832 less cases than the previous day

Notice towards the end of last week the growth in the surge in cases slowed down a fair bit. And today a huge drop of 832 less cases than yesterday. I could be speaking too soon, but hopefully we have reached the top of this second peak and we are now on the way down again, OR the numbers of cases are now at least roughly stabilising at the moment and the daily rises will not reach over 7,000. Fingers crossed.....

Also the daily deaths. Although the deaths have risen a fair bit over the past few weeks from mostly single digits to as high as 40 on Thursday. Since then they have been going back down again. 35 yesterday, 34 today. Fingers crossed that along with the numbers of new cases, that deaths are definitely going down too.

Exactly. This is nothing like the exponential rises of spring. The cases just need to be ignored; hospitalisations and deaths are rising but only so slowly.

 

[Class 33]

Indeed. They're taking too much notice of the cases, rather than the other stats. Whilst the deaths have risen a fair bit over the past few weeks, they are still pretty low - and a FAR cry from the horrific figures of 800's, 900's, and 1000+ daily deaths back in April.

Also worth watching this video. This guy talking about facts about the official figures that the mainstream media don't tell us...

 

[Freightmaster]

A country who's infection rates I've been following for a while has been India, where because their lockdown didn't really work and restrictions have continued to be eased despite rising cases, they're essentially an example of a mitigation/herd immunity strategy like what we were initially alleged to be proposing. For a time cases were rising exponentially, then at a more constant rate through August, but in recent weeks it looks like they might be turning a corner, with daily new cases decreasing, in turn active cases are now going down as recoveries from the high caseloads at their peak outstrip new cases

While I agree that is encouraging, you need to bear in mind that the life expectancy in India
is around ten years lower than 'western' countries like the UK, so an exact comparison cannot
be made as far less of their population is in the 'vulnerable due to being over 75' category.




Speaking of graphs, this is an interesting one:

https://twitter.com/UKCovid19Stats/status/1309419390409023488/photo/1

(graph showing NHS Covid-19 triage figures over the past six months)



...the argument being that NHS Covid-19 triage figures reflect the day to day prevalence of symptomatic Covid infections
in the population far more accurately than PCR testing ever could and the graph shows something of a 'levelling out' going
on at present.






MARK

 

[jtuk]

It's almost as if kids going back to school and getting the usual sniffles might have caused it!

 

[AM9]

It's almost as if kids going back to school and getting the usual sniffles might have caused it!

'Sniffles' aren't symptoms and aren't anything to do with symptomatic COVID-19 infections. The rises and falls of COPVID-19 infections, (both symptomatic and asymptomatic) are determined by the presence of the virus and the behaviour of individuals when in close proximity to others. That behaviour is influenced by the weather and attitudes to compliance with precautions either mandated or recommended.

 

[DelayRepay]

That behaviour is influenced by the weather and attitudes to compliance with precautions either mandated or recommended.

I said before though, I don't think our current increase is down to the weather, as it didn't really turn autumnal until the last week. I do agree that the weather will cause an increase, which suggests that even with the more restrictive measures we'll continue to see increasing numbers, as the positive effects of the additional restrictions are cancelled out by the changes in behaviour linked to autumn/winter weather.

 

[bramling]

'Sniffles' aren't symptoms and aren't anything to do with symptomatic COVID-19 infections. The rises and falls of COPVID-19 infections, (both symptomatic and asymptomatic) are determined by the presence of the virus and the behaviour of individuals when in close proximity to others. That behaviour is influenced by the weather and attitudes to compliance with precautions either mandated or recommended.

But presumably sniffles could lead to more Covid-asymptomatic people seeking a test, and thus registering on the figures?

 

[Bletchleyite]

But presumably sniffles could lead to more Covid-asymptomatic people seeking a test, and thus registering on the figures?

Yes, quite possibly. And people getting tested due to having a cold are one reason why the system ran out of capacity.

 

[LAX54]

Yes, quite possibly. And people getting tested due to having a cold are one reason why the system ran out of capacity.

The symptoms are 'almost' identical, maybe because they are very similar, just the C19 can be more harmful to a very few ? people seem to be asking for tests when they of the kids get 'a cough' or for some reason 'the sniffles' which is not even a symptom !

also see there are mutterings of a third wave now, although I am not sure we are eben near a 2nd ! but if we are, the reason? we keep running away, and locking down, seemingly hoping it wil vapourise and go 'poof' ! gone

 

[Bantamzen]

The symptoms are 'almost' identical, maybe because they are very similar, just the C19 can be more harmful to a very few ? people seem to be asking for tests when they of the kids get 'a cough' or for some reason 'the sniffles' which is not even a symptom !

also see there are mutterings of a third wave now, although I am not sure we are eben near a 2nd ! but if we are, the reason? we keep running away, and locking down, seemingly hoping it wil vapourise and go 'poof' ! gone

Third wave for Christmas? Get yer bets in now....

 

[Class 33]

Cases are down again today. A drop of 349 from yesterday to 5,693. Fingers crossed we really are on the way down now. New cases had been increasing for around 10 weeks now. Hopefully the peak of 6,874 was reached 2 days ago, and we are on our way back down now.

Even with yesterday's huge drop of 832 from Friday, The Mirror were making a negative of it with their "New Coronavirus cases surge by more than 6,000 for the FOURTH day in a row." headline. They can't do that today!

How about some positive "New Coronavirus cases DROP for the SECOND day in a row" headlines from the press and media?

Deaths today 17. Just slightly down from last Sunday's 18. I think deaths are steadily on their way down too.

Got to have some positivity to this. Which sadly is missing from the press and media, with their constant doom and gloom.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Cases are down again today. A drop of 349 from yesterday to 5,693. Fingers crossed we really are on the way down now. New cases had been increasing for around 10 weeks now. Hopefully the peak of 6,874 was reached 2 days ago, are we are on our way back down now.

Weekends are always low, but I do hope it's true.

 

[Class 33]

Weekends are always low, but I do hope it's true.

It's usually the deaths which are lower on weekends. Not necessarily true with new cases though.

 

[trebor79]

Weekends are always low, but I do hope it's true.

Couldn't care less. In fact I believe an exponential growth in cases would be a good thing, as it would get us to the natural conclusion of this situation all the quicker, and then we can get on with living life and rebuilding some sort of functioning economy.
I find myself getting more and more irate at the utter stupidity of what's being done. "Locking down" areas of the country because 0.04% of the population has tested positive. And of those 0.04%, the overwhelming majority will be asymptomatic, it a false positive, and not in any way ill.
It's just utterly facile.