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Covid-19 to have a permanent downward effect on commuting patterns with more partial working from home?

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edwin_m

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Warehouses often have poor links, was looking at jobs in some industrial estates, just not feasible without a car. Cars cost a lot initially to buy so was only looking at places I could to easily.
Warehouses and many factories occupy large areas but have relatively few people compared to offices. The number of employees often isn't enough to justify a decent bus service, unless it happens to be on the way to somewhere that generates more passengers. They tend to be sited on the edge of town where land is cheap and where goods can easily be brought in and out by road - which also makes them easier to get to by car.
 
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Mikey C

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Warehouses and many factories occupy large areas but have relatively few people compared to offices. The number of employees often isn't enough to justify a decent bus service, unless it happens to be on the way to somewhere that generates more passengers. They tend to be sited on the edge of town where land is cheap and where goods can easily be brought in and out by road - which also makes them easier to get to by car.
And warehouses tend to operate 24/7 or at least until late at night, making useful buys services even less likely
 

david1212

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It’s quite conceivable the opposite will happen. Central London office rents are going to tumble, which may encourage employers back there in order to attract a wider workforce.

Against that will employees want to commute in to Central London four if not five days a week. I'm sure despite issues like home schooling many will have realised how long their working day was door-to-door compared to WFH as well as the cost saving. This is why I think local satellite offices will be the way forward to get staff back together and allow skills to be passed to trainees. It will also provide a commercial use for what were Debenhams, Topshop group etc shops.
 

Ianno87

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Against that will employees want to commute in to Central London four if not five days a week. I'm sure despite issues like home schooling many will have realised how long their working day was door-to-door compared to WFH as well as the cost saving. This is why I think local satellite offices will be the way forward to get staff back together and allow skills to be passed to trainees. It will also provide a commercial use for what were Debenhams, Topshop group etc shops.

But why have local satellite offices when peoples homes do the same job? "Hub" offices are better located where a range of employees can access them, not just those on one particular transport corridor.
 

edwin_m

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But why have local satellite offices when peoples homes do the same job? "Hub" offices are better located where a range of employees can access them, not just those on one particular transport corridor.
People may not want to work from home due to lack of space, distractions, or having better well-being with more separation between home and "office". This avoids a long commute for those people. However I question whether some employees would want to pay for them, as they don't generate the interaction between employees that is one of the benefits of working (at least some of the time) in an office.
 

takno

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Against that will employees want to commute in to Central London four if not five days a week. I'm sure despite issues like home schooling many will have realised how long their working day was door-to-door compared to WFH as well as the cost saving. This is why I think local satellite offices will be the way forward to get staff back together and allow skills to be passed to trainees. It will also provide a commercial use for what were Debenhams, Topshop group etc shops.
My day has certainly been a lot longer, and more of it was spent on work rather than the largely quite pleasant commute. Hub offices are all very well, but I want and need to interact with my team, not with Nigel from accounts who lives three streets away and happens to work for the same megacorp.
 

nlogax

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I'm sure despite issues like home schooling many will have realised how long their working day was door-to-door compared to WFH as well as the cost saving.

Works both ways. For many of us the - and I'd rope those of us without kids - the working day while WFH has been longer. The cost savings have been real though.
 

3rd rail land

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But why have local satellite offices when peoples homes do the same job? "Hub" offices are better located where a range of employees can access them, not just those on one particular transport corridor.
I tend to agree here. Companies who have employees primarily WFH will need to accept that some time will be taken up by travel when teams need to meet up a one of these hub sites but that staff will only be going on as needed basis rather than multiple times a week.

Meeting up with colleagues and getting to know them a bit better is certainly time well spent. There's a few people in my wider team I have never met. Plus it's an excuse to go to a nearby pub after the working day is over, once the government allow this of course.
 

WelshBluebird

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Companies who have employees primarily WFH will need to accept that some time will be taken up by travel when teams need to meet up a one of these hub sites but that staff will only be going on as needed basis rather than multiple times a week.
And to be fair, at least in remote first companies operating in my industry before COVID, there absolutely was that understanding.
But yeah any company who is new to having a larger focus on remote working will need to learn that too!
 

3rd rail land

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And to be fair, at least in remote first companies operating in my industry before COVID, there absolutely was that understanding.
But yeah any company who is new to having a larger focus on remote working will need to learn that too!
Oh and there will be a cost to all this travel, via expense claims, but the downsizing of office space should easily offset this.
 

Ianno87

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People may not want to work from home due to lack of space, distractions, or having better well-being with more separation between home and "office". This avoids a long commute for those people. However I question whether some employees would want to pay for them, as they don't generate the interaction between employees that is one of the benefits of working (at least some of the time) in an office.

Wonder if there may be a market for localised "WeWork" type set ups. I.e. anybody can turn up and hire a desk plus screens for an afternoon, and a plentiful supply of coffee. For those with unsuitable home study setups.
 

3rd rail land

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Wonder if there may be a market for localised "WeWork" type set ups. I.e. anybody can turn up and hire a desk plus screens for an afternoon, and a plentiful supply of coffee. For those with unsuitable home study setups.
Presumably paid for by the employee as they are choosing not to use their home as their place of work. Would people really want to spend some of their wages/income on hiring pay as you go type office space?
 

Nicholas Lewis

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Covid may accelerate a trend that was already showing up in season ticket sales but commuting is about to fall off a cliff and on many routes a drop off of 10-15% will be welcomed by travellers and operators alike. The underlying issue is the economics, particularly SE commuter routes, has been built on the income stream of season tickets so the DofT and industry leaders need to realign the offering to better match the reduced season ticket sales against off peak travel. This shouldn't be too much of challenge as the industry has plenty of resources, be it stock or operating staff, that only get deployed at peak hours that are low hanging fruit. The other need is for govt to realise that railways play a key role in decarbonisation and that same as they subsidise electric cars they need to provide an incentive through fares to effect modal shift.
Perhaps the Shapps Williams review will instigate this but im not very expectant.
 

chris11256

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Covid may accelerate a trend that was already showing up in season ticket sales but commuting is about to fall off a cliff and on many routes a drop off of 10-15% will be welcomed by travellers and operators alike. The underlying issue is the economics, particularly SE commuter routes, has been built on the income stream of season tickets so the DofT and industry leaders need to realign the offering to better match the reduced season ticket sales against off peak travel. This shouldn't be too much of challenge as the industry has plenty of resources, be it stock or operating staff, that only get deployed at peak hours that are low hanging fruit. The other need is for govt to realise that railways play a key role in decarbonisation and that same as they subsidise electric cars they need to provide an incentive through fares to effect modal shift.
Perhaps the Shapps Williams review will instigate this but im not very expectant.
I fear that we'll end up in a cycle of the Treasury demanding cuts because railways aren't making enough money, thus making already very low passenger numbers fall because of service cuts.
 

Ianno87

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Presumably paid for by the employee as they are choosing not to use their home as their place of work. Would people really want to spend some of their wages/income on hiring pay as you go type office space?

Depends what's on offer to the employee; is it competitive with a rail fare to <Generic Large Nearby City>, supplied with food/coffee during the day. Not every day, but odd days here and there to "get stuff done" or have a change of scenery/social interaction.

Almost like a premium version of getting your laptop out in a coffee shop, but "souped up" a bit.
 

telstarbox

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Before Covid the likes of Wework, Regus, and Bruntwood in the north west were selling hotdesk space for people who wanted the flexibility to work outside the home but without taking on a full office.
 

Mikey C

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Covid may accelerate a trend that was already showing up in season ticket sales but commuting is about to fall off a cliff and on many routes a drop off of 10-15% will be welcomed by travellers and operators alike. The underlying issue is the economics, particularly SE commuter routes, has been built on the income stream of season tickets so the DofT and industry leaders need to realign the offering to better match the reduced season ticket sales against off peak travel. This shouldn't be too much of challenge as the industry has plenty of resources, be it stock or operating staff, that only get deployed at peak hours that are low hanging fruit. The other need is for govt to realise that railways play a key role in decarbonisation and that same as they subsidise electric cars they need to provide an incentive through fares to effect modal shift.
Perhaps the Shapps Williams review will instigate this but im not very expectant.
But the journeys in electric cars won't (in most cases) around London and the Southeast be the same journeys that people would have made on trains.

If fewer people travel into London each day to work in offices, that's a shift from train travel to no travel.
 

edwin_m

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Before Covid the likes of Wework, Regus, and Bruntwood in the north west were selling hotdesk space for people who wanted the flexibility to work outside the home but without taking on a full office.
But were the rates low enough not to take a big bite out of most people's salaries?
 

philosopher

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But were the rates low enough not to take a big bite out of most people's salaries?
There is one near me that costs £30 a day with free coffee. If that price is typical, I can see many paying to do that it say once a week but not every day.
 

Ianno87

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There is one near me that costs £30 a day with free coffee. If that price is typical, I can see many paying to do that it say once a week but not every day.

Compares favourably with pay £50+ for an Anytime return from the Home Counties.
 

WelshBluebird

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Hell Brewdog do a spot in the bar plus unlimited coffee plus a pint of beer at the end of the day for 7 quid a day or 70 quid a month. Sure not everyone will want to or be able to work from a pub, and not everywhere has a Brewdog, but if you do and just want to get out the house that is a great deal if you want it (the pint alone is usually a fiver haha).
 

3rd rail land

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Hell Brewdog do a spot in the bar plus unlimited coffee plus a pint of beer at the end of the day for 7 quid a day or 70 quid a month. Sure not everyone will want to or be able to work from a pub, and not everywhere has a Brewdog, but if you do and just want to get out the house that is a great deal if you want it (the pint alone is usually a fiver haha).
That's a great deal, does it apply nationwide? I am so used to having dual 27" monitors that I am not sure I could do a full day's work using just my laptop's 14" display. Also does background noise in a pub become an issue when trying to have a phone conversation with colleague(s)? In addition to this I would need to be careful who can see my screen as I sometimes view/update confidential documents but a privacy screen would get round this issue.
 

WelshBluebird

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That's a great deal, does it apply nationwide? I am so used to having dual 27" monitors that I am not sure I could do a full day's work using just my laptop's 14" display. Also does background noise in a pub become an issue when trying to have a phone conversation with colleague(s)? In addition to this I would need to be careful who can see my screen as I sometimes view/update confidential documents but a privacy screen would get round this issue.

I think its almost nationwide (when I last looked they did have some pubs it didn't apply to, but they were mostly the smaller ones where there isn't much room anyway).

Agreed on the limitations too (I've got a 35" ultrawide at home and in the office I have two 22" widescreens), it certainly isn't for everyone but it is a hell of a deal for the people it does does work for!
 

Mikey C

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Hell Brewdog do a spot in the bar plus unlimited coffee plus a pint of beer at the end of the day for 7 quid a day or 70 quid a month. Sure not everyone will want to or be able to work from a pub, and not everywhere has a Brewdog, but if you do and just want to get out the house that is a great deal if you want it (the pint alone is usually a fiver haha).
I assume it's a semi-lockdown only offer though

Once things are back to normal, and people are getting p8ssed on Punk IPA during the day, working in a Brewdog won't really work :E
 

telstarbox

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Co-working space is mostly used by self employed people / freelancers so they can deduct it as an expense, which makes a difference.

I don't think daytime drinkers would opt for a pricey Brewdog bar when Spoons is right there :)
 

Envy123

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Warehouses often have poor links, was looking at jobs in some industrial estates, just not feasible without a car. Cars cost a lot initially to buy so was only looking at places I could to easily.
It was faster for me to travel from north London to St Albans and Hatfield, than one industrial estate at Enfield.

But one near Angel Road was perfectly feasible as I could take a direct bus there.
 

takno

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That's a great deal, does it apply nationwide? I am so used to having dual 27" monitors that I am not sure I could do a full day's work using just my laptop's 14" display. Also does background noise in a pub become an issue when trying to have a phone conversation with colleague(s)? In addition to this I would need to be careful who can see my screen as I sometimes view/update confidential documents but a privacy screen would get round this issue.
Brewdog were doing offers like this before Covid. They have some quite large spaces which are basically empty during the day, so it makes a lot of sense. It's really aimed at people who want to get out of the house every so often, can use a laptop screen to do their job (I've never really understood what multiple monitors give you that alt-tab doesn't), and don't need huge privacy solutions or loud calls.
 

37424

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One of my nearby neighbours having been assured he can work from home for the foreseeable future and having it written into his contract is now going to spend a small fortune building a large cabin at the bottom of his garden which will become his Office.
 
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