Covid 19 pandemic 5 years on

[Martin1988]

Given it is now 5 years since Covid 19 officially became a Pandemic I thought it would be interesting to discuss how the bus (and coach) industry has fared in that time.

Obviously the restrictions that were put in resulted in a decline in passenger numbers and in the aftermath there were changes to people's travel patterns but can it be argued at this stage that the industry has more or less recovered?

Additionally there were a number of instances where services were altered or withdrawn temporarily in response to the initial lockdown only for the changes to then become permanent once restrictions were lifted. Can it be argued that Covid sounded the death knell for a number of services that weren't commercially viable and probably at risk of withdrawal anyway?

 

[Stan Drews]

Depends on how you define ‘recovered’? If you mean back to how things were beforehand, then no, that will never happen as the world has moved on in ways that have impacted bus operations.
Initially recovery was often quoted as a percentage of passenger numbers compared with pre-covid numbers. In some cases routes did get back to 100% and some have grown further. However, we have passed the point where you can relate to any passenger growth or decline at the door of the pandemic itself.
Operators are now largely finding their way through the changed environment where people shop even more online and many now travel to a workplace less than they used to.
The biggest change facing operators now is the whole franchising/ownership debate along with all the other issues about congestion, priority etc that crop regularly in a variety of thread discussions.

 

[DunsBus]

Depends on how you define ‘recovered’? If you mean back to how things were beforehand, then no, that will never happen as the world has moved on in ways that have impacted bus operations.
Initially recovery was often quoted as a percentage of passenger numbers compared with pre-covid numbers. In some cases routes did get back to 100% and some have grown further. However, we have passed the point where you can relate to any passenger growth or decline at the door of the pandemic itself.

Try explaining that to bus passengers in the Borders who are still asking if evening buses will be reinstated - five years after Scottish Borders Council withdrew the funding for both these, and the special services over Christmas and New Year, during Covid. That particular ship has long since sailed; SBC pulled the funding for a reason and these journeys would likely have been withdrawn anyway.

 

[mattb7tl]

I think my region (West Yorkshire) has more than recovered but companies cannot act or won't act because they are zombie companies (First...) Prior to the pandemic the entire core network ran at 6bph reducing down to 4bph, so a 33.3% decrease of the entire core network while patronage is hovering at around 85% of pre-pandemic levels. Per bus there is more people on board than prior to the pandemic and that does not even factor in the patronage increase you would get from restoring said frequencies which from the very limited improvements we have had it would suggest patronage levels would shoot quite a bit past 85%. Keighley's 60/A for example had a patronage increase of 30%+ from a minor frequency increase (30 mins > 20 mins) what results would we see from the core network jumping back up to 6 bph?

 

[JD2168]

Most of the network in South Yorkshire has reduced quite significantly since COVID with the current frequency levels being similar to how the Saturday service before 2020 or less than this. Some contracted services now have a 2 hourly evenings & Sunday frequency. Publicity has reduced with new maps & timetable’s only being available online.

Passenger numbers went up with the £2 fare cap but since this went up to £3 with many fares increasing at the same time numbers do seem to have lowered in terms of passengers.

Also in Sheffield City Centre the passenger travelling experience has worsened with buses being moved from attractive covered stops on Pinstone Street to Arundel Gate where a major stop is just a pole with no covered area, others only gained covered seats in the latter half of 2024.

 

[Pyewipecarshed]

Another major issue facing operators is a shortage of drivers, and that has also been exacerbated by Covid.
Firstly a lot of people took stock during all the lockdowns etc. and decided they didn't want to do shift work and/or work weekends any more, meaning that they will not apply for bus driver jobs. Secondly the loss of revenue during and since covid has meant that operators cannot afford to increase wages to a level where the job becomes attractive.
And thirdly a lot of older drivers who had stayed on doing a couple of days a week decided to retire instead and have never gone back.

 

[DunsBus]

Another major issue facing operators is a shortage of drivers, and that has also been exacerbated by Covid.
Firstly a lot of people took stock during all the lockdowns etc. and decided they didn't want to do shift work and/or work weekends any more, meaning that they will not apply for bus driver jobs. Secondly the loss of revenue during and since covid has meant that operators cannot afford to increase wages to a level where the job becomes attractive.
And thirdly a lot of older drivers who had stayed on doing a couple of days a week decided to retire instead and have never gone back.

Another factor is the rise in anti-social behaviour amongst passengers, again exacerbated by Covid.

 

[greenline712]

In general terms, I'd say that the overall bus industry has been irrevocably changed by Covid. It is now the case that around 50% of all income now comes from support in some way, be it BSOG, £2 / £3 cap support, BSIP grants, contract payments, ENCTS reimbursement, deminimus payments. That is HUGE !! It all means that a bus company, through its relationship with passengers, is only in control of 50% of its income now.

In the big conurbations, where car ownership is lower, then passenger numbers may well have returned to close to pre-Covid numbers, although ENCTS ridership in most areas is still only at 80%-85% of what it was, which means a reduction in reimbursement income with no reduction in costs (you can't run 85% of a bus if only 85% of passengers are travelling).

In more rural areas (by which I include smaller towns as well) . . . it's all quite different. There was more reliance on ENCTS passengers here, and Boris' "DO NOT TRAVEL" statements stopped a lot of senior people from travelling. If you still have a bus every 15 minutes (or better), then you'll contemplate using the bus. If it's hourly, and you need to pop to town, and the next bus is in 45 minutes . . . you'll get the car out (and I do!). But . . . if the numbers aren't there, justifying a more frequent service is very difficult.

I don't believe we'll ever see the industry recover properly . . . we are where we are.

Operators are now largely finding their way through the changed environment where people shop even more online and many now travel to a workplace less than they used to.

That summarises it quite nicely . . . come back in another 5 years, and we'll see . . .

 

[SSmith2009]

My local route has been chopped right back from two routes running every 15-20 mins each and a Sunday service every 30 mins to just 7 journeys per day Mon-Sat only.

Once the driver shortages started, we had sometimes only 1 maybe 2 buses out of PVR of 5 running, many disgruntled passengers have shifted onto other services nearby which involve a walk.

 

[GDKEnts]

As others have said in my area suffers from Covid reductions that haven't been introduced.

 

[Deerfold]

I think my region (West Yorkshire) has more than recovered but companies cannot act or won't act because they are zombie companies (First...) Prior to the pandemic the entire core network ran at 6bph reducing down to 4bph, so a 33.3% decrease of the entire core network while patronage is hovering at around 85% of pre-pandemic levels. Per bus there is more people on board than prior to the pandemic and that does not even factor in the patronage increase you would get from restoring said frequencies which from the very limited improvements we have had it would suggest patronage levels would shoot quite a bit past 85%. Keighley's 60/A for example had a patronage increase of 30%+ from a minor frequency increase (30 mins > 20 mins) what results would we see from the core network jumping back up to 6 bph?

In the Keighley area buses are mostly back to pre-Covid levels - though a couple of local infrequent routes have gone, one replaced by a rerouting of the 67 whose old route to Keighley is now covered (except evenings) by the 502 from Halifax which hadn't run proper for over a decade before Covid.

The most frequent service has been hit hardest (the 662 to Bradford) was every 10 minutes (7-8 high peak) but is now every 15 (10 high peak). Hourly late evening services (after 2020/2120) have dropped from half hourly (except on a Saturday where the only full hour gap is between 2320 and 0020) despite there still being 4 buses between 1900 and 1950.

Frequencies past my house are the same with only minor time differences - Sundays the last bus is 30 minutes later on the Skipton service, but thats jsut been delayed. Smaller buses are used on some routes, particularly on a Monday. There's an extra once a week Summer service to Malham coming back for its second year next month.

The one we have lost is Christmas Day services which had been run by volunteers for around 20 years to 2019 and haven't been seen since - so I now have 2 days a year with no bus service.

 

[talldave]

The only positive thing about all the stupidity was that buses and trains were pleasantly clean. It showed that it can be done and it's a shame it's not the norm.