Could the West Highland Lines ever cover their annual operating cost?

[Osprey17]

The latest rail usage figures for the West Higland Lines show that the number of entries and exits has increased from 565,884 to 629,886 (11.3%) in the past year. More than half the stations are at a 5-year high in their passenger numbers, while the rest are all still up on 2013/14 usage - in some case it is almost double. The Oban branch has particularly benefited from the increase to 6 services a day during the week.

All this has got me wondering, given the frequent discussion of subsidy dependent or 'basket case' rural lines on here. Assuming service provision remains the same (no extra operating costs of additional services/carriages) and all revenue comes in from walk on fares (no railcards, rovers, advanced fares etc.), how much would footfall have to increase to make the line pay for the annual operating cost?

1,000,000 entries and exits? 1,500,000? 2,000,000? More than 2,000,000?

I'd like to add that I don't expect those numbers to ever become a reality, hence why I posted it here. It could be that the numbers are close to their peak without major changes to the timetable/service provision/infrastruction.

 

[Bletchleyite]

There are other ways you could increase income - providing decent First Class would be money for old rope on routes like these, for instance.

 

[Aictos]

Doubtful as don't think they ever will but they can decrease the amount of subsidy to keep the lines open by doing simple acts of increasing patronage.

 

[PeteMacLeod]

Any chance they could offer an express service from Glasgow to Mallaig with no stops? If that sped up the journey it could attract more people put off by the long journey time.

 

[lxfe_mxtterz]

Any chance they could offer an express service from Glasgow to Mallaig with no stops? If that sped up the journey it could attract more people put off by the long journey time.

I'm not sure how a non-stop service would be possible between Glasgow and Mallaig without a stop at Fort William to turn around.

I would hate to think of the outcome of a non-stop train ploughing into the buffers at Fort William station.

 

[Esker-pades]

Any chance they could offer an express service from Glasgow to Mallaig with no stops? If that sped up the journey it could attract more people put off by the long journey time.

I'm not sure that it would actually speed up the journey time by much. Trains have to stop at most stations anyway in order to exchange tokens. Freight services have to stop at every passing loop in order to exchange them.
http://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/H31864/2018/12/19/advanced is an example of this.

 

[Aictos]

I'm not sure if it's possible but how about these Summer Saturday Edinburgh to Oban services becoming active all year around?

That on top of the existing Glasgow to Oban/Mallaig/Fort William services ought to help increase patronage of the line?

 

[deltic]

In my view one of the failures of privatisation has been the complete lack of transparency in the finances of the railway. We know how much susbsidy is required for Scotrail services as a whole but have no idea of the costs and revenues of individual lines. This leads to poor decision making and taxpayers not knowing what there money is actually buying

 

[Bletchleyite]

Any chance they could offer an express service from Glasgow to Mallaig with no stops? If that sped up the journey it could attract more people put off by the long journey time.

Higher frequency would be of more benefit.

 

[adrock1976]

Higher frequency would be of more benefit.

I would have something like:

1 train per 2 hours Glasgow Queen Street - Oban
1 train per 4 hours Glasgow Queen Street - Mallaig

This means that there would be a frequency of 1 tph every 2 hours along the common section between Glasgow Queen Street and Crianlarich. The Mallaig trains would have a portion for Oban which would uncouple/couple at Crianlarich.

When I get the chance, I could (or if somebody else beats me to it) have a go at putting it in a spreadsheet so as to see what it could look like.

 

[philjo]

Adding a Fort William portion to the 1033 Glasgow to Oban service would help. This would then return mid-afternoon to plug the 6 hour gap in southbound trains in the afternoons. Though the Oban service it would couple to at Crianlarich southbound is SO.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Adding a Fort William portion to the 1033 Glasgow to Oban service would help. This would then return mid-afternoon to plug the 6 hour gap in southbound trains in the afternoons. Though the Oban service it would couple to at Crianlarich southbound is SO.

A Sunday morning all-year service might be of use, with the present evening-only service you can't do a weekend away from outside Scotland and get back home other than via the Sleeper. You can use the Citylink coach at 11am and get back down South, but not everyone knows about it and so when doing a journey plan and finding they can't do it they probably just drive.

Weekends away are massive business (particularly from London to places in the north and Scotland where there is nice countryside) but the railway does seem to ignore them at times. The relatively early Friday evening finish on some rural lines like the Conwy Valley similarly throw such business away.

 

[deltic]

The latest rail usage figures for the West Higland Lines show that the number of entries and exits has increased from 565,884 to 629,886 (11.3%) in the past year. More than half the stations are at a 5-year high in their passenger numbers, while the rest are all still up on 2013/14 usage - in some case it is almost double. The Oban branch has particularly benefited from the increase to 6 services a day during the week.

All this has got me wondering, given the frequent discussion of subsidy dependent or 'basket case' rural lines on here. Assuming service provision remains the same (no extra operating costs of additional services/carriages) and all revenue comes in from walk on fares (no railcards, rovers, advanced fares etc.), how much would footfall have to increase to make the line pay for the annual operating cost?

1,000,000 entries and exits? 1,500,000? 2,000,000? More than 2,000,000?

I'd like to add that I don't expect those numbers to ever become a reality, hence why I posted it here. It could be that the numbers are close to their peak without major changes to the timetable/service provision/infrastruction.

A very dodgy back of the envelope calculation suggests you need to increase revenue by nearly 4 fold

 

[Journeyman]

There are other ways you could increase income - providing decent First Class would be money for old rope on routes like these, for instance.

I've often thought about that - I certainly think an improved catering offer would go down well, but whether that stretches to a premium class or not, I don't know. I'd jump at it, but my own travelling experience suggests that a lot of WHL passengers are quite budget-conscious. A lot of people are backpackers/youth-hostellers etc., who are often experts in making their travels extremely cheap.

 

[Esker-pades]

I would have something like:

1 train per 2 hours Glasgow Queen Street - Oban
1 train per 4 hours Glasgow Queen Street - Mallaig

This means that there would be a frequency of 1 tph every 2 hours along the common section between Glasgow Queen Street and Crianlarich. The Mallaig trains would have a portion for Oban which would uncouple/couple at Crianlarich.

When I get the chance, I could (or if somebody else beats me to it) have a go at putting it in a spreadsheet so as to see what it could look like.

A project I did for a bit produced this timetable. Every 2 hours to Crianlarich with a portion to both Oban and Fort William. Roughly every other service continued from Fort William to Mallaig. Add the sleepers, The Jacobite and an additional commuter service around Fort William and this is what the timetable looks like:
(The paths south of Helensburgh are matched to the rest of the project so don't bear resemblance to any paths available in the current timetable.)

 

[Mag_seven]

Any chance they could offer an express service from Glasgow to Mallaig with no stops?

The single track sections and the way RETB signalling works would prohibit that.

 

[Osprey17]

Thank you all for your input!

In my view one of the failures of privatisation has been the complete lack of transparency in the finances of the railway. We know how much susbsidy is required for Scotrail services as a whole but have no idea of the costs and revenues of individual lines. This leads to poor decision making and taxpayers not knowing what there money is actually buying

A very dodgy back of the envelope calculation suggests you need to increase revenue by nearly 4 fold

Agreed. 'Basket case' is a still a common term here in regard to rural lines but without the figures it is impossible to be sure. It would be interesting to see how close the Looe Valley Line (as just one example) is to its break-even point each year. That number does seem possible in the long-term but I doubt the strength of will exists, or indeed will ever exist, to give the line the investment in capacity/improving line-speeds.

There are other ways you could increase income - providing decent First Class would be money for old rope on routes like these, for instance.

I'm not sure if it's possible but how about these Summer Saturday Edinburgh to Oban services becoming active all year around?

That on top of the existing Glasgow to Oban/Mallaig/Fort William services ought to help increase patronage of the line?

Adding a Fort William portion to the 1033 Glasgow to Oban service would help. This would then return mid-afternoon to plug the 6 hour gap in southbound trains in the afternoons. Though the Oban service it would couple to at Crianlarich southbound is SO.

These all seem like fairly cost affective ideas to raise patronage, in particular running the Edinburgh service on Saurdays and Sundays all year round and improving first class facilities.

Could anything be realistically done with reducing journey times on the route? I suspect that would be the biggest potential barrier to further passenger growth.

 

[snookertam]

I think the answer is probably not. I would be amazed if the route has ever made a return.

The Oban line is probably close to capacity in terms of frequency, and has certainly benefited from the more frequent service, but the Oban route isn't much different to the road in terms of distance and time, and so is likely used by the general population as much as tourists - particularly in the isles given the connections through Oban.

For Fort William/Mallaig it is very different due to the detour the line takes over Rannoch Moor and Tulloch. I think there may be opportunity for an additional day time Fort William service detaching from the mid morning Oban as suggested above, but possibly only during summer months. With additional services you also have to consider additional staffing costs, unit maintenance costs due to additional miles run, additional fuel usage, and then whether any additional services would have enough patronage. An additional service would likely have to rely on enough tourist traffic to justify it, as aside from the Fort William area, possibly Spean Bridge, and Mallaig itself, there's nowhere with much population up there at all.

Not against introducing additional services on the Fort William line btw, just wouldn't expect them to make any sort of financial return. Due to the nature of the Highlands, with its sparse population, I'd be surprised if much public transport was profitable for anyone. Doesn't make it any less necessary though.

 

[Meerkat]

If/when DMU’s become more available is it technically/legally possible for a private operator to take the risk on a luxury fit out of a unit then tag it on the public service? I am thinking end to end passengers only so the luxury unit doesn’t need to be in the platform (but it would rely on being able to consistently get the public end in the platform without the rest being in the way or beyond the signal)

 

[Fawkes Cat]

If/when DMU’s become more available is it technically/legally possible for a private operator to take the risk on a luxury fit out of a unit then tag it on the public service? I am thinking end to end passengers only so the luxury unit doesn’t need to be in the platform (but it would rely on being able to consistently get the public end in the platform without the rest being in the way or beyond the signal)

Rather on the same lines, what is the basis for the current timetable? That is, within the constraints of what physically be done, is the service mainly designed to be public transport, or is it designed to support tourism? Because I can see that a tourist oriented service might do well out of observation cars and enhanced passenger service (food at tables, maybe a commentary to tell passengers what they can see out of the windows: maybe extra luggage space for holiday makers) while not doing any harm to people who use the railway today.

 

[Bald Rick]

Rather on the same lines, what is the basis for the current timetable? That is, within the constraints of what physically be done, is the service mainly designed to be public transport, or is it designed to support tourism? Because I can see that a tourist oriented service might do well out of observation cars and enhanced passenger service (food at tables, maybe a commentary to tell passengers what they can see out of the windows: maybe extra luggage space for holiday makers) while not doing any harm to people who use the railway today.

It’s both. But tourism is mostly of the type that brings their own food.

 

[Meerkat]

Fairly crucial question - how many of the services are at sit down meal times?
Maybe afternoon tea would be popular with tourists?

 

[Esker-pades]

Fairly crucial question - how many of the services are at sit down meal times?
Maybe afternoon tea would be popular with tourists?

Most services take long enough to catch at least one meal.

 

[Ken H]

Rather on the same lines, what is the basis for the current timetable? That is, within the constraints of what physically be done, is the service mainly designed to be public transport, or is it designed to support tourism? Because I can see that a tourist oriented service might do well out of observation cars and enhanced passenger service (food at tables, maybe a commentary to tell passengers what they can see out of the windows: maybe extra luggage space for holiday makers) while not doing any harm to people who use the railway today.

so convert something into observation lounges and charge a supplement

 

[deltic]

Most on board catering looses money due to massive fluctuations in demand from day to day so not sure providing meal service is going to do anything to improve the finances of the line

 

[Meerkat]

In this internet age couldn’t they make food service bookable?
Unlikely to reduce staff costs but would reduce food wastage.

 

[Bald Rick]

In this internet age couldn’t they make food service bookable?
Unlikely to reduce staff costs but would reduce food wastage.

Food wastage is a minuscule fraction of the cost base of a well run commercial catering enterprise.

 

[Esker-pades]

Staff costs would be the biggest problem with providing a catering service. There is catering on all (or there certainly should be) full length FNL runs and 3 staff members for a 2 coach train seems quite a lot. On the other hand, it does get used pretty well (that final statement being based purely on observation).

 

[Bletchleyite]

Most on board catering looses money due to massive fluctuations in demand from day to day so not sure providing meal service is going to do anything to improve the finances of the line

Part of that is because it is unreliable. If you *knew* it would be there then you might plan to use it. One miss and you'll buy at the station even if manhandling a cup of tea alongside your luggage is a faff.

 

[GrimShady]

In the 80s ScotRail would run MK3 push pull sets to Oban to fly the flag as it were.

It could be replicated these days with refurbished HSTs.....if and when they end up in squadron service.