Could the USA experience a second civil war, or perhaps a smaller scale breakup?

[Cowley]

It’s a thought that’s popped up a few times over the past few years and reading for instance this thread, you can really see how far things have become polarised in the country.

I don’t know where it goes from here, but it’s increasingly looking like a tinderbox over there…

 

[TheEdge]

Let's just say I wouldn't have been surprised if the events of the 6th January didn't lead to a full on civil war.

I don't think it'll be something like the OG Civil War but a violent coup of general fracturing of the USA isn't unimaginable

 

[Bletchleyite]

It seems unlikely to me. The states have enough individual power to head that sort of thing off.

It wouldn't surprise me to see some form of right wing terrorism, though, which what happened on 6th Jan basically was.

 

[Gloster]

I am no expert on the US (never been there, never want to go there), but it would not surprise me if we see a number of incidents of localised fighting, considerably worse than just ‘rioting’, taking place, particularly in the south or mid-West. For most it will probably be started by an incident involving someone to the right of centre, which then escalates until, thanks to the wonders of social media, people start coming in from outside the area and joining in.

 

[Cowley]

I could see particular regions splintering away and causing issues as a starting point leading to further problems.
For example areas of California inland from the mainly Democratic voting cities causing water supply issues. Pardon the pun but I’m thinking of the drip drip drip effect of people in a country with many guns becoming more and more angry with each other.

If you were to then stir in a younger version of Trump (who was actually competent this time) winning the presidency, things could get pretty bad.

 

[brad465]

Maybe not a full civil war, but a period like the Troubles in NI of sporadic violence led by paramilitary like terrorist groups wouldn't be a surprise. A dictator may try and take control, and potentially succeed, but the size of the country and huge variety of cultures/views would make any one such leader struggle to hold power for long. Failed state status is looking likely, although the US won't recognise that, and this tweet perfectly sums up the situation in the US right now:

https://twitter.com/mhdksafa/status/1346905706105081858?lang=en

If the United States saw what the United States is doing in the United States, the United States would invade the United States to liberate the United States from the tyranny of the United States.

What I think is fundamentally happening is the political-economic system that the US is the bastion of is reaching its endgame, in the same way Communism reached its endgame in the USSR. It never occurred to many, especially in the West, that it's entirely possible for both sides of an argument to be wrong/too extreme. Communism fell first, which led to the wrongful vindication of unregulated capitalism/neoliberalism. Now the latter system is failing (well it mainly failed in 2008 and the years since), and it seems no-one is able to present a solution, which has allowed populists like Trump to prevail, and the deep divisions are what's driving the instability. I suspect a solution will be found and eventually the US will recover, but to do so peacefully is looking very unlikely.

 

[GS250]

Another problem though is that we are fed exactly the version of America that the mainstream media wants us to see. If you've ever been there for a prolonged period then the reality is quite different.

Yes, there are huge problems, especially in and around the big cities. There is the hypocrisy of those demanding certain political and socialogical standards...and then upping sticks and leaving when these standards start to backfire on them. Talking the huge white and wealthy exodus from California to Texas and Arizona here. Yes, the right and left are massively polarised and both will attack stoic and sensible opinions. Gun control etc etc.

However for many it's still the place to be and can offer a standard of living and lifestyle like no other.

 

[AlterEgo]

I do recommend visiting the United States often. It is a much more normal country than you might think.

 

[GS250]

I do recommend visiting the United States often. It is a much more normal country than you might think.

Exactly this. Spent a good 2 months in New Hampshire. Was just like being in the UK really. It was in 2004 mind before things started getting a bit silly though.

 

[birchesgreen]

No because, like here, most people are not that bothered about the various contentious issues one way or the other and are more interested in getting on with their lives.

 

[AlterEgo]

Exactly this. Spent a good 2 months in New Hampshire. Was just like being in the UK really. It was in 2004 mind before things started getting a bit silly though.

Well to be fair, NH is the most normal of all places to spend time in the USA! I spend time in bonkers states like Texas and still don’t feel the place really reflects the news diet we get back home.

Some form of far right terrorism seems likely to happen in the next year or two, but that doesn’t mean a civil war is going to break out.

Unfortunately British political discourse is poisoned by thinking we live in the version of the United States created by the media.

 

[baz962]

I do recommend visiting the United States often. It is a much more normal country than you might think.

My son has lived just outside Seattle since he was six , in 2008. Although I had been to the USA a few times prior since 1998 , and had a perception that was based on movies and tv. I thought all Americans were loud ( us version of the price is right ) . How wrong was I . Very friendly people who say good morning to you while walking down the street , more times in a few visits than in 50 years here. Now I try to go yearly and sometimes more than once to see my Boy. Of course some southern states are very different to Seattle etc , both in attitude and weather. Seattle is on a similar line geographically to the UK and has a similar weather pattern. It's a great country and we fall into the trap of thinking they are all gun toting nuts. The reality is far different mostly.

 

[Cowley]

I do recommend visiting the United States often. It is a much more normal country than you might think.

This and the following replies are very good points of course. I’ve only ever visited San Francisco which was a long time ago now and I don’t want to make presumptive guesses as to how things are over there.
Mrs C grew up in Northern Ireland and the reality of her childhood was pretty different to how I perceived things to be until I got to know the place post Troubles.

On my stepmothers side we have some family members who live around Salt Lake City and her niece and partner were staying here for the last couple of weeks. Her niece has a job working for a government think tank in DC and she said that she’s feeling quite alarmed by the way things are going. That was also one of the reasons I started this thread.

Although I’ve been following things from afar the screaming headlines are generally quite far removed from reality of course. It’s just interesting to see what take on it people in the know have.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I do recommend visiting the United States often. It is a much more normal country than you might think.

Agreed. Even, as some have said, Texas. Yes, there are the big cars, and yes, there are probably a lot of racists and homophobes, but those problems are not exclusive to the USA. And no, you most likely won't get shot even though there are guns (not that the school shootings are not utterly tragic and entirely avoidable).

New York is a great city, with a level of humility and humanity you might not actually expect, definitely go there.

 

[b0b]

Having lived here over 20 years I think its unlikely. Between cable news and social media, the more extreme voices are amplified in a way that hasn't happened before. Previous decorum has degraded significantly.

 

[najaB]

I don’t know where it goes from here, but it’s increasingly looking like a tinderbox over there…

Could it happen? Yes. Is it likely? Not really. At least not in the form of a major north/south armed conflict - they're a long way from states seceding from the Union.

Increased political violence is definitely possible though.

Agreed. Even, as some have said, Texas. Yes, there are the big cars, and yes, there are probably a lot of racists and homophobes, but those problems are not exclusive to the USA. And no, you most likely won't get shot even though there are guns (not that the school shootings are not utterly tragic and entirely avoidable).

I dunno. The last couple of times I was over there I never felt safe. Then again, I believe my skin is somewhat darker than yours, make of that what you will.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I dunno. The last couple of times I was over there I never felt safe. Then again, I believe my skin is somewhat darker than yours, make of that what you will.

Texas is certainly a quite racist place, so I can believe it

 

[AlterEgo]

I dunno. The last couple of times I was over there I never felt safe. Then again, I believe my skin is somewhat darker than yours, make of that what you will.

Would agree with this. I am milk-bottle white but the US is one of the few places I sometimes stop and gawp and think "that's RACIST!".

I was once warned by a (black) New Jersey Uber driver against visiting a destination he was taking me to because it wasn't necessarily safe for white people (It was fine, I was visiting a friend there and being dropped off at the door!). I am entirely certain the same risks apply in other neighbourhoods where the colours are reversed.

I would put a sum of money on there being some major right wing terror event in the next year or two in the USA. Civil war - no.

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

Civil war? No, far too many people would have far too much to lose. Individual states seceding from the Union? Also unlikely as in practice the majority of people don't actually feel strongly enough to want to go that far although there is no doubt that states like California and Texas could survive perfectly well as independent nations if they so choose.

Far more likely is a reform in socio-economics. During the sixties and seventies the archetypal/stereotypical middle-class family enjoyed a comfortable lifestyle based on a single income. These days that standard of living needs two incomes to support it. In the meantime the economic elite have accumulated vast wealth largely at the expense of those middle class families with the poor being in largely the same place as they ever were. Revolutions are often forecast in wealthier countries on the basis of the poorest rising up but in the US it's the middle class who actually have the potential power to force real change: I think at some point they will realise they have been victims of boiling frog syndrome in terms of their wealth and will push the country in a different political direction away from the current oligarchical course. It won't happen quickly.

 

[Cloud Strife]

I would put a sum of money on there being some major right wing terror event in the next year or two in the USA. Civil war - no.

My personal prediction is similar to yours. I fully expect a major coordinated attack on 'enemy' cities, like San Francisco and Austin in Texas, leading to a huge amount of bloodshed and a lot of questions about how this could have happened. There are enough people who are so thoroughly brainwashed into hating 'the libs', and worse still, they have no qualms about taking money from dubious sources or repeating dubious propaganda.

One interesting thing I found about the Capitol attack was the amount of regret and remorse that the people involved had afterwards. They seem to have genuinely not understood the consequences of their actions, and one can only imagine just how the interrogations took place. Yet, it doesn't seem to have done anything to discourage others associating with them, which is truly frightening.

 

[najaB]

One interesting thing I found about the Capitol attack was the amount of regret and remorse that the people involved had afterwards. They seem to have genuinely not understood the consequences of their actions, and one can only imagine just how the interrogations took place. Yet, it doesn't seem to have done anything to discourage others associating with them, which is truly frightening.

Q believers really do believe. And Americans generally believe their country's creation myth. It's a dangerous combination.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Q believers really do believe. And Americans generally believe their country's creation myth. It's a dangerous combination.

Incredibly so. What's frightening is that their 'beliefs' are so skewed that they openly support Putin and Xi against American interests, and it's what convinces me that a major terror attack is on the cards.

One report here shows just how deep this is: https://www.prri.org/research/qanon-conspiracy-american-politics-report/

Hispanic Protestants (26%), white evangelical Protestants (25%), and other Protestants of color (24%) are more likely than other religious groups to agree that the government, media, and financial worlds in the U.S. are controlled by a group of Satan-worshipping pedophiles who run a global child sex trafficking operation.[1] Less than one in five Mormon (18%), Hispanic Catholic (16%), Black Protestant (15%), other Christian (14%), non-Christian religious (13%), white Catholic (11%), religiously unaffiliated (11%), white mainline Protestant (10%), and Jewish Americans (8%) agree with this statement.

 

[GS250]

Revolutions are often forecast in wealthier countries on the basis of the poorest rising up but in the US it's the middle class who actually have the potential power to force real change: I think at some point they will realise they have been victims of boiling frog syndrome in terms of their wealth and will push the country in a different political direction away from the current oligarchical course. It won't happen quickly.

You could argue the 'Oligarchy' or 'Elite' have kept the 'poorest' just about onside with the handouts and constant political campaigns that give the impression that they actually care about them. In fact you could say the 'poorest' are weaponised to occupy the minds of the middle class in to thinking they are the ones causing them the strife.

Regarding two household incomes....yes, by design so as to bring more into the labour market thus keeping salaries down.

America will be the first nation where the middle class really take on the elite I reckon.

 

[AlterEgo]

Incredibly so. What's frightening is that their 'beliefs' are so skewed that they openly support Putin and Xi against American interests, and it's what convinces me that a major terror attack is on the cards.

One report here shows just how deep this is: https://www.prri.org/research/qanon-conspiracy-american-politics-report/

American conspiracists are really the hardest of hard core, absolutely loony. Very dangerous to have in a society. I wouldn’t be surprised if something like BLM flares up again and some right wing extremist group takes an opportunity to mount some sort of attack. Yes, “both sides”, but one is far more likely to be lethally dangerous and coordinated.

 

[Bevan Price]

I think a lot may depend on whether or not Trump tries & succeeds in becoming president again. His openly expressed hatred of those who disagree with him is potentially "risky" for almost everybody.

 

[Gloster]

I think a lot may depend on whether or not Trump tries & succeeds in becoming president again. His openly expressed hatred of those who disagree with him is potentially "risky" for almost everybody.

Or if he stands but fails to be elected he may inflame his supporters, particularly if it is a narrow defeat.

 

[najaB]

I think a lot may depend on whether or not Trump tries & succeeds in becoming president again. His openly expressed hatred of those who disagree with him is potentially "risky" for almost everybody.

It's not looking good for his chances. There is daylight starting to appear between him and his most ardent supporters, and he is subject of at least two criminal and three (I think) major civil probes. It's more likely than not that he'll be facing actual charges before long.

His endorsement doesn't carry the weight that it once did - several of his choices have lost their primary elections.

And let's not forget that he's not the healthiest of people. I can easily see him deciding not to run "on the advice of his doctors".

 

[brad465]

It's not looking good for his chances. There is daylight starting to appear between him and his most ardent supporters, and he is subject of at least two criminal and three (I think) major civil probes. It's more likely than not that he'll be facing actual charges before long.

His endorsement doesn't carry the weight that it once did - several of his choices have lost their primary elections.

And let's not forget that he's not the healthiest of people. I can easily see him deciding not to run "on the advice of his doctors".

I'm currently expecting Ron DeSantis to be the Republican candidate, who would be in with a good chance of winning, and some of his recent Florida Governor behaviour suggests he'll be very Trump-like in terms of beliefs and divisiveness.

 

[najaB]

I'm currently expecting Ron DeSantis to be the Republican candidate, who would be in with a good chance of winning, and some of his recent Florida Governor behaviour suggests he'll be very Trump-like in terms of beliefs and divisiveness.

I can see that, though he doesn't seem to be super-popular outside of the south east.

 

[Strathclyder]

I'm currently expecting Ron DeSantis to be the Republican candidate, who would be in with a good chance of winning, and some of his recent Florida Governor behaviour suggests he'll be very Trump-like in terms of beliefs and divisiveness.

I can see that, though he doesn't seem to be super-popular outside of the south east.

One of the very few - if not the only - remotely good things he's presided over as Florida's Governor are the recently passed new laws concerning condo upkeep/maintenance in response to the Champlain Towers South condo disaster last June.

Otherwise, he's Trump 1.5; just as morally bankrupt, but only marginally more intelligent.