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Could TfW expand the Class 197 fleet?

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Caaardiff

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I suspect that's just rumour as there's no Depot capacity to be able to maintain anymore 197's without expanding or building new Depots.
What would make more sense is buying more centre cars, expanding 2 cars to 3 cars, or even 3 cars to 4 cars.
 

Bletchleyite

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No problem.
Apparently tfw are buying 10 more 197’s but I can’t find anything about it. Do you know anything ?

I suspect that's just rumour as there's no Depot capacity to be able to maintain anymore 197's without expanding or building new Depots.
What would make more sense is buying more centre cars, expanding 2 cars to 3 cars, or even 3 cars to 4 cars.

I'd agree on extending them. Two car is not very useful these days, particularly with the disabled access requirements and the wasteful catering cupboard nonsense. Even the Conwy Valley is starting to get busy enough with standees that a three car unit would be more useful than a two. Threes and fours would be a better fit to demand across TfW's (and for that matter Northern's) networks, aside from the Heart of Wales and the Borderlands, but you could keep a small fleet of 2 car units just for these.
 

tfw756rider

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No problem.
Apparently tfw are buying 10 more 197’s but I can’t find anything about it. Do you know anything ?
First I've heard of it. Where did you hear this?

there's no Depot capacity to be able to maintain anymore 197's without expanding or building new Depots.
Exactly.
What would make more sense is buying more centre cars, expanding 2 cars to 3 cars, or even 3 cars to 4 cars.
Yes, I'd be very surprised if any entire new pure diesel multiple units were built - surely 197041 is the last.
 

Bletchleyite

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Good think they have dedicated fleets then! 230s (as unreliable as they are) on the Borderlands line, and active travel 153s on the Heart of Wales

That's the case for now, but given that the 153s are old and the 230s are junk in my view it would be prudent just to order more 197s to replace them while the lines are open.

Ordering some 4 car sets could be used to displace two 2-car sets per 4-car onto these routes (roughly), plus some extra coaches to lengthen some units to 4 car and all others to a minimum of 3.

I'm no fan of basic DMUs to be fair, but as TfW has very little electrification on their network there isn't much need for bi-mode. Though it would be an option I suppose, for use on lines like Manchester/Liverpool-North Wales and Manchester-Cardiff which do have reasonable (but still minority) sections under the wires.
 

pokemonsuper9

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I'm no fan of basic DMUs to be fair, but as TfW has very little electrification on their network there isn't much need for bi-mode. Though it would be an option I suppose, for use on lines like Manchester/Liverpool-North Wales and Manchester-Cardiff which do have reasonable (but still minority) sections under the wires.
I would say if we need to buy any DMUs, they should be convertible to bi-modes (as the 231s are).

Wasn't there some discussion in relation to leasing companies not wanting to purchase DMUs due to expected shorter lives, I can imagine that has only gotten worse and they would want even higher lease costs.
 

Peter Sarf

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I would say if we need to buy any DMUs, they should be convertible to bi-modes (as the 231s are).

Wasn't there some discussion in relation to leasing companies not wanting to purchase DMUs due to expected shorter lives, I can imagine that has only gotten worse and they would want even higher lease costs.
I would agree. For any leasing company a DMU with an electric transmission and, even better, a proven ability to be Bi-Mode is going to be a safer bet than a straight DMU with mechanical transmission.

There is a danger that four car 197s will be inflexible - they will have to be kept to the routes needing them. But better to have a pair of two car 197s as more flexible - lets not get distracted by the short form conspiracy please. I think the day when a 2car DMU is unthinkable is a long way off - lets face it BR split 2car class 155 DMUs in half to make 1car class 153s !. So lets banish 1car DMUs first !.

For TfW I am keen on the idea of more 231s or 756s to displace more 197s into North Wales, mid Wales and away from Cardiff. Those displaced 197s could cover replacement of 153s and 230s. After all the only electrification is nearer to Cardiff and I assume depot capacity in South Wales is better than at Chester ?. Furthermore I feel the Flirts have been more reliable than the 197s - but assumed to cost more, in which case you get what you pay for.
 

Bob Price

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I don't think the 197's will replace the 230's. Think the long term aspirations are a 777 type unit with fast charge batteries with potential to operate into Liverpool. Though there may be capacity issues in the loop tunnel.
 

GaryNeville

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I was told by someone generally well in the know.
I personally think extending to more 3 car would be the best and most cost effective option.
I think 2 and 3 cars provide the right mix of flexibility but the ratio should’ve weighted more towards 3 cars

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

I wonder if another option could be to get more MK4’s to displace 197’s off Manchester’s and then tfw work hard to get the route electrified and replace the 67’s with something (what I don’t know).
 
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LNW-GW Joint

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I think TfW (the government body, not the operator) has been asked to investigate future rolling stock options, but that's not the same as approving purchase thereof.
Replacing the class 67s (and life-extending the Mk4s) is another possibility being mentioned.

But it's election year in Wales, so who knows what policies will apply after May.
I for one have been surprised how the rail budget in Wales has been protected/enhanced in the last few years, seemingly at the expense of health and other spending. The project overruns (new rolling stock and metro) must also be costing somebody a fortune.

And where is the WG-funded Global Centre for Rail Excellence (GCRE) project at Onllwyn heading? It seems to be lacking serious investment and industry commitment.
 

Peter Sarf

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I don't think the 197's will replace the 230's. Think the long term aspirations are a 777 type unit with fast charge batteries with potential to operate into Liverpool. Though there may be capacity issues in the loop tunnel.
I agree with 777s on the Wrexham to Bidston line BUT I feel that is such a long term aspiration that something needs to happen in the meantime. Setting aside 197s now to cover the Wrexham to Bidston line will leave those 197s free by the time 777s appear. Nice for any future growth elsewhere.
I was told by someone generally well in the know.
I personally think extending to more 3 car would be the best and most cost effective option.
I think 2 and 3 cars provide the right mix of flexibility but the ratio should’ve weighted more towards 3 cars
This is probably a more pragmatic approach. Reducing two car units but not leaping to four car units.
At least the 197s have inter unit gangway connections.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

I wonder if another option could be to get more MK4’s to displace 197’s off Manchester’s and then tfw work hard to get the route electrified and replace the 67’s with something (what I don’t know).
Electrification from South Wales towards Manchester must be a very long way off.
The 67s + Mk4s have not showered themselves in glory. Perhaps more investment in maintenance would make a difference and would help prior to buying more.
I think TfW (the government body, not the operator) has been asked to investigate future rolling stock options, but that's not the same as approving purchase thereof.
Replacing the class 67s (and life-extending the Mk4s) is another possibility being mentioned.
I agree - it is at a very early stage. Only really indicating a need.
But it's election year in Wales, so who knows what policies will apply after May.
I for one have been surprised how the rail budget in Wales has been protected/enhanced in the last few years, seemingly at the expense of health and other spending. The project overruns (new rolling stock and metro) must also be costing somebody a fortune.
Indeed the political landscape in Wales might change radically. In the UK generally there is a growing desire to try a completely different party.
And where is the WG-funded Global Centre for Rail Excellence (GCRE) project at Onllwyn heading? It seems to be lacking serious investment and industry commitment.
I think TfW and/or Welsh Government will feel they have already bitten off plenty to chew. Also I wonder, if CAF are out of favour then perhaps a very local testing centre is not so relevant.
 

Bletchleyite

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The 67s + Mk4s have not showered themselves in glory. Perhaps more investment in maintenance would make a difference and would help prior to buying more.

In the end they're old, hard-worked tat, much as enthusiasts like them because they're BR era LHCS. 222s or 68+Mk5 would have done but these are already spoken for, so I guess (short of XC getting a new fleet and releasing Voyagers) that leaves you with new 5 car bi-modes of some kind if you want to replace them. It would be an option to replace the entire Manchester-Cardiff fleet, which would also release some 197s for other uses.

You could replace them with 197s, but this is a very long distance route so to me it does justify a nicer interior, proper catering and first class. It's kind of odd that it isn't part of XC, really, but probably good that it isn't.
 

Peter Sarf

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In the end they're old, hard-worked tat, much as enthusiasts like them because they're BR era LHCS. 222s or 68+Mk5 would have done but these are already spoken for, so I guess (short of XC getting a new fleet and releasing Voyagers) that leaves you with new 5 car bi-modes of some kind if you want to replace them. It would be an option to replace the entire Manchester-Cardiff fleet, which would also release some 197s for other uses.

You could replace them with 197s, but this is a very long distance route so to me it does justify a nicer interior, proper catering and first class. It's kind of odd that it isn't part of XC, really, but probably good that it isn't.
It really does fit with Cross Country but as you say - better to have eggs in different baskets. At least it should be an "intercirty" style fleet.

A thought - would the even older HSTs have been a better bet ?.
Then again how old are the voyagers getting ?.
So for Cardiff - Manchester perhaps 80Xs or Flirts (more like Norwich 745s inside).
 

Bletchleyite

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A thought - would the even older HSTs have been a better bet ?.

Definitely not. They have been unreliable wherever they have been used.

Then again how old are the voyagers getting ?.

Not that old yet (sadly :) ).

So for Cardiff - Manchester perhaps 80Xs or Flirts (more like Norwich 745s inside).

80x (or 897). The FLIRT classes have too low fuel capacity for that very long diesel run.

I'd not use 197s as they are on this route though, as you say it needs something more IC style. I don't care about door positions, but it does need proper first class and catering, and ideally less stark lighting than the 197s have. You could do something pretty decent with something like the 5 car 730 body but as a bimode and with an upgraded interior I reckon, but that isn't offered on the market.

Does anyone know how many 197s a full replacement for this route with new units would release?
 

anthony263

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I heard there was plans to order additional carriages from CAF to lengthen a number of the two carriage 197s to 3 carriages plus some 197s for the heart fo wales line and additional 398s
 

Peter Sarf

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I heard there was plans to order additional carriages from CAF to lengthen a number of the two carriage 197s to 3 carriages plus some 197s for the heart fo wales line and additional 398s
More 398s I hope not ! - before any have proved themselves in service. Shades of the modernisation plan diesels.
 

amahy

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There is a danger that four car 197s will be inflexible - they will have to be kept to the routes needing them. But better to have a pair of two car 197s as more flexible - let’s not get distracted by the short form conspiracy please. I think the day when a 2car DMU is unthinkable is a long way off - lets face it BR split 2car class 155 DMUs in half to make 1car class 153s !. So let’s banish 1car DMUs first !.
Sorry to go against your wishes, but short forming is not a “conspiracy”. It’s a very real problem faced by many commuters up and down the country. What is a conspiracy, is that long fixed formation multiple units create availability issues. Avanti, Thameslink, and Elizabeth Line all have large fleets of long, fixed formation trains, and none have big issues with their fleets.

Talking about the 197 issue, it would be unwise to reward CAF, a company with a track record of building poor quality trains, with more train orders full stop, let alone 197s, which are some of their worst trains, in my opinion. The 231s and 756s are far superior in almost every way.
 

Bletchleyite

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Talking about the 197 issue, it would be unwise to reward CAF, a company with a track record of building poor quality trains, with more train orders full stop, let alone 197s, which are some of their worst trains, in my opinion. The 231s and 756s are far superior in almost every way.

Except one very key one - fuel tank capacity. This makes them unsuitable for TfW's longer distance routes, and it isn't an easy one to solve as it's due to limited space in the "power pod" vs. the ability to put a much larger tank under the floor of each vehicle.
 

Caaardiff

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Two car is not very useful these days, particularly with the disabled access requirements and the wasteful catering cupboard nonsense. Even the Conwy Valley is starting to get busy enough with standees that a three car unit would be more useful than a two. Threes and fours would be a better fit to demand across TfW's (and for that matter Northern's) networks, aside from the Heart of Wales and the Borderlands, but you could keep a small fleet of 2 car units just for these.
2 car is still sufficient for a lot of TFW's routes.
Bidston (As replacement for 230's) (3)
Conwy Valley. 3 car would be overkill even if some summer services would see people standing.
Shrewsbury-Crewe
Newport - Ebbw Vale (2)
Quieter West Wales services, such as Fishguard (3-4)
Heart of Wales (As replacement for 153's) (5)

Your looking at 16 just as single working units.

There is a danger that four car 197s will be inflexible - they will have to be kept to the routes needing them. But better to have a pair of two car 197s as more flexible - lets not get distracted by the short form conspiracy please. I think the day when a 2car DMU is unthinkable is a long way off - lets face it BR split 2car class 155 DMUs in half to make 1car class 153s !. So lets banish 1car DMUs first !.
TFW don't actually operate many 4 car 197 workings anymore. Most are 5 car on South Wales to Manchester and only two sets of 5 car diagrams North Wales to Manchester.Any others would be on routes not meant for 197's currently, the odd Maesteg to Ebbw Vale see's 4 car and the current 197's covering Birmingham for lack of 158s.

For TfW I am keen on the idea of more 231s or 756s to displace more 197s into North Wales, mid Wales and away from Cardiff. Those displaced 197s could cover replacement of 153s and 230s. After all the only electrification is nearer to Cardiff and I assume depot capacity in South Wales is better than at Chester ?. Furthermore I feel the Flirts have been more reliable than the 197s - but assumed to cost more, in which case you get what you pay for.
Already discussed at great length, the 231 and 756 range is limiting. When the 231's do move to the mainline they will displace the current 197's on those routes that were never meant to be there.
The only other routes they could displace more 197's from South to North would be Bristol to West Wales, which the Stadlers wouldn't have the range for without wiring further West.

I wonder if another option could be to get more MK4’s to displace 197’s off Manchester’s and then tfw work hard to get the route electrified and replace the 67’s with something (what I don’t know).
Unlikely. The Mk4's are on borrowed time and will need replacing soon.



TFW are now 7 years into the franchise and I don't think anyone can argue that things haven't improved. So much so it's clear to see passenger confidence is returning to Wales and Borders Railways. Demand is up. Previously services on the Marches were lucky to get a 3 car 175, and it was seen as sufficient. These days even a 3 car can struggle on normal days. Similar with North Wales to Manchester.

I believe additional carriages should be ordered to lengthen units in this way:

North Wales - Manchester - More services should be 4 car instead of the current 3 cars, with the odd 5 car.
Liverpool - Llandudno - These should all be 3 car instead of a mix of 2 and 3 car.
Cardiff - Holyhead - Should all be 4 car.
West Wales - Cardiff/Bristol - Should all be minimum 3 car instead of the current 2 car.
Cambrian Coast - Should all be 3 car instead of 2 car.


The question should be though, what is TFW's future fleet plans?

I don't believe more 197's are needed, just additional carriages to lengthen current units.
It's the Mk4's that need replacing and I believe they should be replaced by a standard 5/6 car bi-mode with enough to provide a consistent hourly Swansea - Manchester product.

Currently Cardiff/Swansea - Manchester requires 19 trains, consisting of 5 Mk4's, 5x 3 car 197s and 9x 2 car 197's.
Obviously a bit more complicated to work out because of the 2 cars working to West Wales and Mk4's to Holyhead and layover time.

By my workings a consistent Swansea - Manchester all day service should require 11 new units. That in theory should free up 12-14 197's to go elsewhere.
Those 9 two cars would be taken up by replacing 153's and 230's, leaving the 5 three cars to pick up any remaining West Wales work. That means extra capacity is still required in North Wales which could be achieved by ordering more carriages instead of more units.
It also doesn't put extra pressure on CAF having to maintain more trains, rather than just longer ones.
 

Bletchleyite

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Conwy Valley. 3 car would be overkill even if some summer services would see people standing.

I don't think this is true any more. I saw it last weekend and it was heaving. With the loss of the parallel bus service, but also with the upgrade in quality the 197s bring, it seems to be getting busier all the time. A three-car unit would no longer be overkill for most of the year now.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Cambrian Coast - Should all be 3 car instead of 2 car.

I would personally say the ETCS units should all be 3 car, with 3 to Aber and 3 to Pwllheli when they split. However it does appear testing has been done on 4 cars on the Coast which might be even better, which would mean 2 to Aber and 4 to Pwllheli in the hours when they split, and 4 to Aber in the hours when there isn't a Pwllheli portion, which works too.
 

Rhydgaled

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as TfW has very little electrification on their network there isn't much need for bi-mode.
That's true today but, if TfW are to order any additional brand new stock that doesn't at least have a space for a pantograph (and all the associated kit, internal wiring etc.) then it rather undermines both the Welsh Government's transport decarbonisation efforts (much as the 2018/19 order for 77 class 197 units / 180 vehicles did) and TfW's latest vision for Network North Wales. While that does say they will "Deliver more new trains" within the next five years (so 2030ish), it also promises to "Electrify the North Wales Main Line", 4tph Wrexham-Liverpool and level boarding; all by 2035. That would give any extra 197s a maximum of 5 years in service (2030 to 2035) before they don't fit the vision timeline.

I would say if we need to buy any DMUs, they should be convertible to bi-modes (as the 231s are).
Agreed. Better yet, have them delivered as bi-modes from day one (even if, as with TfW's short-lived pool of class 769s, the pantograph is taken off at first (so it doesn't require maintenance) until more electrification is available to use).

I would agree. For any leasing company a DMU with an electric transmission and, even better, a proven ability to be Bi-Mode is going to be a safer bet than a straight DMU with mechanical transmission.
Unfortunately, simply specifying 'electric transmission' (ie. DEMUs (Diesel Electric Multiple Units)) isn't enough. The Voyagers are DEMUs but, apparently, very difficult to convert to bi-mode (due to lacking suitable cables to take traction power between coaches so, if even if you built a new coach with a pantograph, getting the power from there to the traction motors under the existing vehicles is challanging, apparently).

I for one have been surprised how the rail budget in Wales has been protected/enhanced in the last few years, seemingly at the expense of health and other spending. The project overruns (new rolling stock and metro) must also be costing somebody a fortune.

And where is the WG-funded Global Centre for Rail Excellence (GCRE) project at Onllwyn heading? It seems to be lacking serious investment and industry commitment.
For TfW I am keen on the idea of more 231s or 756s to displace more 197s into North Wales, mid Wales and away from Cardiff. Those displaced 197s could cover replacement of 153s and 230s. After all the only electrification is nearer to Cardiff and I assume depot capacity in South Wales is better than at Chester?
I get the impression TfW is struggling for depot capacity everywhere (otherwise why not reallocate some 197s down south rather than storing them at Holyhead?) but that's just based on what I read on forums etc. so I could easily be wrong. Unfortunately getting rolling stock between the Onllwyn site and anywhere with a current passenger rail service is rather awkward at present, and there's the problem that any diesel operation ought to be short-lived, or I would be arguing for a new depot to be built there and the ETCS-fitted 197s ordered for the Cambrian diverted there instead (with Machynlleth retaining the 158s for now, ordering a new bi-mode fleet ASAP to replace them). Another issue with Onllwyn is that there doesn't appear to be much in the way of housing nearby, so finding enough staff to work there might be tricky (or involve long car commutes).

Electrification from South Wales towards Manchester must be a very long way off.
Yes; the Network North Wales vision does mention electrification of the Marches Line, but not until beyond 2035 (ie. after they want the North Wales Coast line to be wired). TfW/WAG seem more-focused on the South (East) Wales Metro and North Wales Main Line in the shorter term.

I think 2 and 3 cars provide the right mix of flexibility but the ratio should’ve weighted more towards 3 cars
While I agree that more 3-car units would have been better, I remain of the opinion that no brand new rail vehicles with diesel on-board should have been delivered for use in the UK since about 2015, with the exception of bi-mode and tri-mode stock that is also capable of electric operation (electro-diesels). The class 195s and class 197 orders (or 'Cavity Abominations' as I like to call them) were almighty mistakes. However, since we're stuck with them for now, I would suggest that TfW talk with CAF and Northern/GBR regarding the differences between 195s, 197s and 331s. While I would not support an order for any additional class 19x vehicles to the current design; I note that the formation of the class 331 EMUs includes unpowered trailer coaches... I don't know enough about the Civity platform (or the technical side of trains in general, probably) to know whether I'm onto something or not.
 

Topological

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We absolutely need something.

The 197s do a great job. I know people might like something better for Cardiff to Manchester, but so many passengers are doing short journeys. The line passes through many small places and it is good to grow the use of rail in these communities. A special fast train from Cardiff to Manchester would do nothing to support growth. The 197s have the huge advantage of short dwells and can still do the end to end in the same time as the limited stop Mk4s. That demonstrates that either 197s on limited stops could save time, or that we can offer more service to more places without costing time.

The 67s are also unable to do South Wales to Manchester, they are maxed out by Cardiff-Manchester. The result has been a split in cross Cardiff opportunities and more terminating trains at a Cardiff Central that is not designed for terminating services. People always say there is no demand for cross Cardiff, but I am sure sales figures would prove otherwise. I cannot know all the people who ever cross Cardiff.

I would be happy with another order of 197s. It would be great if the rumour was true.

One small suggestion would be to take the chance to relocate the Standard Plus seating to the carriage with the accessible toilet. Then you can have a premium service in a 197. It would help reduce the loss of first class in the Mk4s. Whenever I use first class it is lucky if there are 15 people in the carriage, they would fit in a Standard Plus area of a 197.

It is good to read this thread and see not everyone is defending the Mk4s. They were great once. They are clearly top line Intercity stock. But the 67s are useless and the route is not top line intercity.

If someone finds a money tree then 80x would be my choice. Ideally, with wider doors for shorter dwells and gearing for acceleration. If gearing for slower speeds maybe the end crumple zones can be reduced as well. I do not know what class you end up with then though.
 

DS25

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If someone finds a money tree then 80x would be my choice. Ideally, with wider doors for shorter dwells and gearing for acceleration. If gearing for slower speeds maybe the end crumple zones can be reduced as well. I do not know what class you end up with then though.
Maybe something similar to the new EMR 810's?
 

Topological

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Maybe something similar to the new EMR 810's?
That would be my thought, if they can be made to work reliably. The nice thing about the route is that the only high speed sections are wired (Crewe-Manchester).
 

Caaardiff

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The 197s do a great job. I know people might like something better for Cardiff to Manchester, but so many passengers are doing short journeys. The line passes through many small places and it is good to grow the use of rail in these communities. A special fast train from Cardiff to Manchester would do nothing to support growth. The 197s have the huge advantage of short dwells and can still do the end to end in the same time as the limited stop Mk4s. That demonstrates that either 197s on limited stops could save time, or that we can offer more service to more places without costing time.
Swansea/Cardiff to Manchester should be a key fast route linking two of the biggest cities in Wales to the big city in the North.
By that notion there should be a stopping service to London, but the aspiration over the years has been to get from South Wales to London as quickly as possible. What's needed is routes that serve smaller communities complimenting fast city-city services.

One small suggestion would be to take the chance to relocate the Standard Plus seating to the carriage with the accessible toilet. Then you can have a premium service in a 197. It would help reduce the loss of first class in the Mk4s. Whenever I use first class it is lucky if there are 15 people in the carriage, they would fit in a Standard Plus area of a 197.
I would disagree. First is still a growing product for TFW and has seen growth since it was introduced. There is more and more social media coverage from various outlets promoting the product. It just needs refining to become more sustainable. IF a consistent hourly Swansea - Manchester service does happen, the cost of providing the on board chef would probably far outweigh the return on so many services. A standard plus sized First would be quite a small offering. Realistically and on board cafe with sufficient, and comfortable, seating upgrades should be available in a First product. The offering on GWR's HST's was far superior to the current First offering on the IETs.

In my opinion putting more 197's in to replace the Mk4's would not be a suitable replacement for the aspiration of a decent long distance product.

There's 7 Mk4's currently, who knows if the 8th will ever appear. If my workings are right a replacement to make Swansea - Manchester work would require 11, say 13 for having spares. 13 new trains would free up enough to solve most of the rest of the fleet replacing TFW needs to do, with maybe the addition of some more carriages for longer trains meaning the maintenance regime for CAF stays as it is.
 

Topological

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Swansea/Cardiff to Manchester should be a key fast route linking two of the biggest cities in Wales to the big city in the North.
By that notion there should be a stopping service to London, but the aspiration over the years has been to get from South Wales to London as quickly as possible. What's needed is routes that serve smaller communities complimenting fast city-city services.


I would disagree. First is still a growing product for TFW and has seen growth since it was introduced. There is more and more social media coverage from various outlets promoting the product. It just needs refining to become more sustainable. IF a consistent hourly Swansea - Manchester service does happen, the cost of providing the on board chef would probably far outweigh the return on so many services. A standard plus sized First would be quite a small offering. Realistically and on board cafe with sufficient, and comfortable, seating upgrades should be available in a First product. The offering on GWR's HST's was far superior to the current First offering on the IETs.

In my opinion putting more 197's in to replace the Mk4's would not be a suitable replacement for the aspiration of a decent long distance product.

There's 7 Mk4's currently, who knows if the 8th will ever appear. If my workings are right a replacement to make Swansea - Manchester work would require 11, say 13 for having spares. 13 new trains would free up enough to solve most of the rest of the fleet replacing TFW needs to do, with maybe the addition of some more carriages for longer trains meaning the maintenance regime for CAF stays as it is.
The problem is that the 67s cannot do Swansea to Manchester diagrams, so the Mk4s are a non-starter. We do not even have one train in each direction on any weekday at the moment (though that is because of a different failing of the stock meaning two cannot go onto Canton at similar times - 18:30 arrival from Manchester and the ECS from the 16:30 Manchester to Swansea.

Laughable limits like that mean that the Mk4s need sending out to grass.

Maybe if there was signalling to allow fast and stoppers on the Marches, but with blocks of up to 17 minutes (I actually have 19 in my head) then you have to make choices. The current fastest journey time with stock that can stop and still keep time is the answer.
 

mmh

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In the end they're old, hard-worked tat, much as enthusiasts like them because they're BR era LHCS.
The coaches are on their last legs, but as I understand it the reliability issues are with the privatisation era 67s, not the older coaches.
 

VT 390

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Unlikely. The Mk4's are on borrowed time and will need replacing soon.
I do not think the Mark 4 carriages themselves will be replaced soon but TfW are looking to find alternatives to the class 67 locomotives.
There is a section in the April 2026 Modern Railways magazine mentioning TfW are looking to extend the Mark 4 life.
 

mmh

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I don't think this is true any more. I saw it last weekend and it was heaving. With the loss of the parallel bus service, but also with the upgrade in quality the 197s bring, it seems to be getting busier all the time. A three-car unit would no longer be overkill for most of the year now.
This is very true. The 1010ish from Llandudno yesterday was standing from Llandudno Junction, on a nondescript out of season Monday. The majority of passengers appeared to be tourists or leisure passengers - and there were at least 6 bikes on the train.

I was surprised I was the only person to get off at Llanrwst - nobody alighted or boarded before I did, so it'd appear leisure demand is very high and everyone else was headed for Betws or Blaenau.
 
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