Could/should HS2 Western leg be shelved?

[Senex]

One of the "interesting" features of the design is that the layout of the junctions for Birmingham, Manchester, and Leeds all suggest that the main line on both sides of the country is conceived as aiming at Scotland, thus replicating the present WCML and ECML which put the great English cities on branch lines for a fast approach from the south. (And then Birmingham, Manchester (and also Liverpool) all have pretty dreadful connections northwards towards Scotland.) It's only London that really matters ....

 

[Grumpy Git]

It's only London that really matters ....

'Twas ever thus.

 

[stuu]

One of the "interesting" features of the design is that the layout of the junctions for Birmingham, Manchester, and Leeds all suggest that the main line on both sides of the country is conceived as aiming at Scotland, thus replicating the present WCML and ECML which put the great English cities on branch lines for a fast approach from the south. (And then Birmingham, Manchester (and also Liverpool) all have pretty dreadful connections northwards towards Scotland.) It's only London that really matters ....

That's not true for Birmingham, and it's entirely possible that a north-facing junction will be added for Manchester, depending on whether or not NPR ever becomes a thing

 

[quantinghome]

One of the "interesting" features of the design is that the layout of the junctions for Birmingham, Manchester, and Leeds all suggest that the main line on both sides of the country is conceived as aiming at Scotland, thus replicating the present WCML and ECML which put the great English cities on branch lines for a fast approach from the south. (And then Birmingham, Manchester (and also Liverpool) all have pretty dreadful connections northwards towards Scotland.) It's only London that really matters ....

The Birmingham spur runs East-West and has a triangular junction for a fast approach to the North and South. Sensible because it's right in the middle of the country.

If you draw a straight line across the country through Manchester and Leeds, 50 million people in Britain live south of it and only 10 million north of it. That's why Manchester and Leeds only have junctions pointing south on HS2.

 

[HSTEd]

One of the "interesting" features of the design is that the layout of the junctions for Birmingham, Manchester, and Leeds all suggest that the main line on both sides of the country is conceived as aiming at Scotland, thus replicating the present WCML and ECML which put the great English cities on branch lines for a fast approach from the south. (And then Birmingham, Manchester (and also Liverpool) all have pretty dreadful connections northwards towards Scotland.) It's only London that really matters ....

If you put a single curve in on the Manchester Airport/Wigan branch you can make the "south facing" route out of Manchester fully competitive with the existing routes for journeys Northwards.

What direction you go in is less important when you can eat up several kilometers every minute.

 

[snowball]

it's entirely possible that a north-facing junction will be added for Manchester, depending on whether or not NPR ever becomes a thing

However:

1) The original plans included an east-to-north curve (for empty stock movements between Piccadilly and the then-proposed rolling stock depot near Wigan); all subsequent versions have left it out.

2) Recent changes to accommodate "touchpoints" for NPR include provision for an east-to-west route (Manchester to Liverpool via Manchester Airport and Warrington) and a south-to-west route (London and Birmingham to Liverpool via Warrington) but do not include reinstatement of the east-to-north curve.

I don't see any reason why a go-ahead for NPR would make an east-to-north curve more likely.

 

[Ianno87]

One of the "interesting" features of the design is that the layout of the junctions for Birmingham, Manchester, and Leeds all suggest that the main line on both sides of the country is conceived as aiming at Scotland, thus replicating the present WCML and ECML which put the great English cities on branch lines for a fast approach from the south. (And then Birmingham, Manchester (and also Liverpool) all have pretty dreadful connections northwards towards Scotland.) It's only London that really matters ....

Because at junctions there is little point making the straight route the one to (say) Manchester, because the trains need to slow down shortly afterwards anyway. To, you know, stop.

 

[The Ham]

It's exceptionally popular in British culture to go around calling things 'White Elephants' or describing them as a waste of money for no reason at all beyond that you personally find some small element of them objectionable.

Indeed, it's why if we are going to look at cancelling any part of HS2 the metric for doing so should be "are we likely to be close to the predicted passenger numbers or not" only is we are likely to fall (say) 15% below the predictions should we consider cancelling it.

Pre Covid it was clear that we were unlikely to meet this metric (as we were above the expected passenger numbers for a few years in the future, let alone where we were), however Covid has muddied the water as we still aren't sure what the ongoing passenger numbers are doing to be.

Although things would have to be fairly dire for the likely passenger numbers to be 15% below the predicted increase in passenger numbers. Including a continuing fall of 35% and then 3.1% or lower growth assuming a future year of 2038.

However even then rail growth would have reached 185 passengers for every 100 passengers in 2009 and so chances are there'd be a need for significant improvements along the lines of HS2 within a decade of them anyway.

As such, the likelihood is that we might as well get it done, have the benefits (including the ability to have policies which discourage most internal flights, and so significantly aid our ability to reach net zero by 2050) and not have to restart it (or something like it) in a few years when passenger numbers continue to grow.

 

[Grimsby town]

Indeed, it's why if we are going to look at cancelling any part of HS2 the metric for doing so should be "are we likely to be close to the predicted passenger numbers or not" only is we are likely to fall (say) 15% below the predictions should we consider cancelling it.

Pre Covid it was clear that we were unlikely to meet this metric (as we were above the expected passenger numbers for a few years in the future, let alone where we were), however Covid has muddied the water as we still aren't sure what the ongoing passenger numbers are doing to be.

Although things would have to be fairly dire for the likely passenger numbers to be 15% below the predicted increase in passenger numbers. Including a continuing fall of 35% and then 3.1% or lower growth assuming a future year of 2038.

However even then rail growth would have reached 185 passengers for every 100 passengers in 2009 and so chances are there'd be a need for significant improvements along the lines of HS2 within a decade of them anyway.

As such, the likelihood is that we might as well get it done, have the benefits (including the ability to have policies which discourage most internal flights, and so significantly aid our ability to reach net zero by 2050) and not have to restart it (or something like it) in a few years when passenger numbers continue to grow.

The latest rail statistics from the government are showing that some days have seen usage return to the high 60s and even 70% of precovid demand. If I'm correct I believe 70% of 2019 demand takes us back to around 2010 levels of demand.

 

[MattRat]

One of the "interesting" features of the design is that the layout of the junctions for Birmingham, Manchester, and Leeds all suggest that the main line on both sides of the country is conceived as aiming at Scotland, thus replicating the present WCML and ECML which put the great English cities on branch lines for a fast approach from the south. (And then Birmingham, Manchester (and also Liverpool) all have pretty dreadful connections northwards towards Scotland.) It's only London that really matters ....

It's worse than that if the predicted routes are anything to go by. The Scotland trains will only go pass Preston and Carlisle (and Birmingham interchange). The York trains will only go up to Newcastle. It means you either have to go to Preston, or catch the train up to Newcastle and find a way to get to Carlisle, depending on where you live.

 

[Ianno87]

It's worse than that if the predicted routes are anything to go by. The Scotland trains will only go pass Preston and Carlisle (and Birmingham interchange). The York trains will only go up to Newcastle. It means you either have to go to Preston, or catch the train up to Newcastle and find a way to get to Carlisle, depending on where you live.

You mean "changing trains"?

Regardless, the service specification is only the assumption for the purposes of an Economic Case and infrastructure design. The actual operator come Dec 2028 may spot additional commercial opportunities.

Also:
-One of Newcastle-Euston trains serves Darlington
-The Preston-Euston service picks up Wigan and Warrington.

 

[The Ham]

The latest rail statistics from the government are showing that some days have seen usage return to the high 60s and even 70% of precovid demand. If I'm correct I believe 70% of 2019 demand takes us back to around 2010 levels of demand.

Between London and North West/Scotland/West Midlands passenger numbers had reached 175 passengers for every 100 in 2009.

Therefore if we reduce that by 70% we get to 122 for every 100 in 2009. That's close to 2013 passenger numbers. However it's also close to where the growth model predicated it should have been at about 2017.

 

[Purple Orange]

NPR is so high in the air, anything could happen with the spare HS2 capacity at Piccadilly. It could become purely a London & Birmingham service with increased frequency over time.

That's not true for Birmingham, and it's entirely possible that a north-facing junction will be added for Manchester, depending on whether or not NPR ever becomes a thing

 

[MattRat]

You mean "changing trains"?

Regardless, the service specification is only the assumption for the purposes of an Economic Case and infrastructure design. The actual operator come Dec 2028 may spot additional commercial opportunities.

It seems pretty silly if passengers on the east side of the country have to go west to get on a train going to Edinburgh in the east of Scotland. I do hope the operator sees that and takes the Newcastle service to at least Edinburgh, but also hopefully Glasgow.

 

[JonathanH]

It seems pretty silly if passengers on the east side of the country have to go west to get on a train going to Edinburgh in the east of Scotland. I do hope the operator sees that and takes the Newcastle service to at least Edinburgh, but also hopefully Glasgow.

I think you might need to look at a map to see where Edinburgh is relative to Leeds (and indeed Manchester) in terms of longitude. Leeds to Manchester to Edinburgh makes more sense than you think. The fact that Manchester is further south than Leeds is more of an issue.

 

[Ianno87]

It seems pretty silly if passengers on the east side of the country have to go west to get on a train going to Edinburgh in the east of Scotland. I do hope the operator sees that and takes the Newcastle service to at least Edinburgh, but also hopefully Glasgow.

....or there'll still be non-HS2 services operating between Yorkshire, Newcastle and Edinburgh.

 

[Purple Orange]

....or there'll still be non-HS2 services operating between Yorkshire, Newcastle and Edinburgh.

Probaby will. If there are to be 6 NPR services between Manchester and Leeds, where do you terminate them? The infrastructure east of Leeds is expected to change little compared to west of Leeds, therefore you would expect similar constraints as today with potentially more demand. So a Manchester->Leeds->Edinburgh service could still happen.

 

[Grumpy Git]

I think you might need to look at a map to see where Edinburgh is relative to Leeds (and indeed Manchester) in terms of longitude. Leeds to Manchester to Edinburgh makes more sense than you think.

Common misconception that Edinburgh is a long way east. Indeed Glasgow is further west than Plymouth.

 

[stuu]

However:

1) The original plans included an east-to-north curve (for empty stock movements between Piccadilly and the then-proposed rolling stock depot near Wigan); all subsequent versions have left it out.

2) Recent changes to accommodate "touchpoints" for NPR include provision for an east-to-west route (Manchester to Liverpool via Manchester Airport and Warrington) and a south-to-west route (London and Birmingham to Liverpool via Warrington) but do not include reinstatement of the east-to-north curve.

I don't see any reason why a go-ahead for NPR would make an east-to-north curve more likely.

Can you really see the Treasury paying for 4 new tracks running parallel past Lymm? The chances of them paying for two are fairly low at the moment

 

[Grumpy Git]

Can you really see the Treasury paying for 4 new tracks running parallel past Lymm? The chances of them paying for two are fairly low at the moment

Bottom fell out of that when Gideon and Dave lost the referendum and he quit as MP for Tatton.

 

[Starmill]

It's worse than that if the predicted routes are anything to go by. The Scotland trains will only go pass Preston and Carlisle (and Birmingham interchange). The York trains will only go up to Newcastle. It means you either have to go to Preston, or catch the train up to Newcastle and find a way to get to Carlisle, depending on where you live.

Why would anybody go from Newcastle to Edinburgh via Carlisle just because HS2 services are being added from there?

 

[MattRat]

Why would anybody go from Newcastle to Edinburgh via Carlisle just because HS2 services are being added from there?

If people wanted to ride on HS2 trains, which I admit sounds silly when I think about it more, as those lines will still both be 125 mph limited. Then again, shouldn't the point be the get as many people to use HS2 trains as possible? In which case, the trains should go both directions to Scotland.

 

[Kingston Dan]

Common misconception that Edinburgh is a long way east. Indeed Glasgow is further west than Plymouth.

Edinburgh is further west than Cardiff

 

[6Gman]

But it is only 90 miles, so a 40 minute journey does not need a 200+ mph train.

Hopefully high speed rail will eventually reach Scotland and remove most of the air market (with significant environmental benefits). Over those distances ultra high speed matters.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Sep 2021 ==

Yes, it should be shelved north of Crewe.

Do you really think racing to Crewe and then pottering along behind 323 stoppers makes sense?

 

[Bald Rick]

Then again, shouldn't the point be the get as many people to use HS2 trains as possible? In which case, the trains should go both directions to Scotland.

The point is to get as many people on trains as possible. Concentrate HS2 trains where they will be best utilised.

 

[Aictos]

Yes, it should be shelved north of Crewe.

And that makes no sense what so ever, the Govt should not only get HS2 to Scotland but look at extending it.

 

[Starmill]

Then again, shouldn't the point be the get as many people to use HS2 trains as possible?

Not really. I don't see what that would gain us.

 

[MattRat]

Not really. I don't see what that would gain us.

A better business case for HS2, at least to those opposed to it. Obviously, there are some real feet daggers, but I'm sure there are also some who just need a gentle nudge.

 

[Roast Veg]

There's no grounds for 2b West cancellation. the comparatively likely eastern cancellation would be a tragedy for Nottingham and Sheffield, and would make NPR harder to design, assuming it isn't also trashed.

When are we due to find out now? The IRP will be out of date by the time it's published.

 

[LittleAH]

It's worse than that if the predicted routes are anything to go by. The Scotland trains will only go pass Preston and Carlisle (and Birmingham interchange). The York trains will only go up to Newcastle. It means you either have to go to Preston, or catch the train up to Newcastle and find a way to get to Carlisle, depending on where you live.

It's almost as if there'll still be trains going from say Leeds to Edinburgh so it doesn't particularly matter if all long distance trains to Scotland go via HS2 and the WCML.