Could/should HS2 Western leg be shelved?

[MattRat]

With all the talk of what could happen to the Eastern leg, it got me thinking. Why that part particularly? It serves a lot of areas, is important to East Midlands hub, and isn't near an of the other infrastructure. The Western leg, on the other hand, only serves 1 city, Manchester (it doesn't even go to Liverpool), is already 'near' Crewe, which can already serve services to Liverpool and Manchester just fine, IMO, and any infrastructure not built by HS2 that is important to High Speed North, can very easily be built by High Speed North.

However, I'd like to get other people's opinions on the matter. What do you think about shelving the Western Leg of HS2?

Edit: By Western leg, I mean the Phase 2b section from Crewe to Manchester.

 

[75A]

Shelving the whole thing even at this stage is more sensible than carrying on building it in my opinion.

 

[JonathanH]

Shelving the whole thing even at this stage is more sensible than carrying on building it in my opinion.

Certainly cancelling both the western and eastern legs of Phase 2B would result in a very disappointing project outcome that wouldn't be fulfilling its potential.

 

[75A]

We should just add it to the list of very expensive transport White Elephants, along with the Channel Tunnel, the M6 Toll Road & Smart Motorways.

 

[The Planner]

We should just add it to the list of very expensive transport White Elephants, along with the Channel Tunnel, the M6 Toll Road & Smart Motorways.

Why are they white elephants? M6 toll averages 50k vehicles per day, thats 50k that would otherwise have to go through the West Mids. Considering the 2019 average for the M6 around there was 100k vpd its not a small chunk. Not sure why the Channel Tunnel is a white elephant either considering the dent it made in air travel. By default I assume HS1 is a white elephant too? What would you consider a success?

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

Why are they white elephants? M6 toll averages 50k vehicles per day, thats 50k that would otherwise have to go through the West Mids. Considering the 2019 average for the M6 around there was 100k vpd its not a small chunk. Not sure why the Channel Tunnel is a white elephant either considering the dent it made in air travel. By default I assume HS1 is a white elephant too? What would you consider a success?

The M6 Toll wasn’t as successful as hoped however thats by no means to say its a white elephant. Channel Tunnel was used by the 11 Million from Eurostar and the 10 Million who use the shuttle. Then HS1 has a further 15 Million from Domestic use (by Southeastern) That means the Channel Tunnel is used for 21 Million journeys a year and HS1 is used for 26 Million journeys a year pre-COVID.

 

[Gareth]

The M6 Toll has always been quiet when I've been on it (admittedly not often). It could maybe do with reducing the tolls a bit to encourage more traffic to use it.

 

[JonathanH]

We should just add it to the list of very expensive transport White Elephants, along with the Channel Tunnel, the M6 Toll Road & Smart Motorways.

Well yes, a HS2 that only ever ran 3tph Old Oak Common to Birmingham Curzon Street and never went elsewhere would be a white elephant not least because there would still need to be 2tph fasts from Birmingham to Euston on the WCML to serve Coventry. I dont think anyone could justify only building that if the rest of it was shelved but I guess we are talking about cancelling Crewe to Manchester here and assuming Euston is built.

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

Well yes, a HS2 that only ever ran 3tph Old Oak Common to Birmingham Curzon Street and never went elsewhere would be a white elephant not least because there would still need to be 2tph fasts from Birmingham to Euston on the WCML to serve Coventry.

Which is why the western leg needs to be built

 

[MattRat]

Which is why the western leg needs to be built

And not the Eastern leg? See, that's why I had the idea for this thread, as a way to save he Eastern leg.

 

[HSTEd]

Well yes, a HS2 that only ever ran 3tph Old Oak Common to Birmingham Curzon Street and never went elsewhere would be a white elephant not least because there would still need to be 2tph fasts from Birmingham to Euston on the WCML to serve Coventry. I dont think anyone could justify only building that if the rest of it was shelved but I guess we are talking about cancelling Crewe to Manchester here and assuming Euston is built.

You could run a lot more than just Birmingham Trains with HS2 Phase 1?

Phse 1 does come with a connection doesn't it?

 

[MattRat]

....but I guess we are talking about cancelling Crewe to Manchester here and assuming Euston is built.

I should probably clarify that yes, this is correct.

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

And not the Eastern leg? See, that's why I had the idea for this thread, as a way to save he Eastern leg.

oh no i agree eastern leg needs to be built. It wouldnt make sense without

 

[Ianno87]

If Crewe to Manchester is shelved, what is the capacity solution for Stockport, the route through which is full to planning capacity to the point where certain service aspirations cannot be accommodated *today*?

What is the solution for getting the Birmingham-Manchester journey time from.its currently woeful 90 minutes?

Etc.

 

[MattRat]

If Crewe to Manchester is shelved, what is the capacity solution for Stockport, the route through which is full to planning capacity to the point where certain service aspirations cannot be accommodated *today*?

What is the solution for getting the Birmingham-Manchester journey time from.its currently woeful 90 minutes?

Etc.

Regardless of what happens, Phase 1/2a will be in operation before 2b is built. I would hope any problems would already be worked out for during that interim period.

 

[Ianno87]

Regardless of what happens, Phase 1/2a will be in operation before 2b is built. I would hope any problems would already be worked out for during that interim period.

But Phase 1/2a don't really have any extra London services to Manchester than today (3tph HS2 replaces 3tph Pendolino), and has no Birmingham services at all. So has no real extra demand on (or release of) Stockport capacity than today.

It's Phase 2b that enables the released capacity by, in effect, removing the majority of London services (and some Birmingham services) from the Stockport route.

 

[Bletchleyite]

We should just add it to the list of very expensive transport White Elephants, along with the Channel Tunnel, the M6 Toll Road & Smart Motorways.

All three very successful at what they do. The sole issue there is hard shoulders.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Sep 2021 ==

The M6 Toll has always been quiet when I've been on it (admittedly not often). It could maybe do with reducing the tolls a bit to encourage more traffic to use it.

Though enough traffic now uses it that Brum doesn't clog up like it used to.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Sep 2021 ==

Well yes, a HS2 that only ever ran 3tph Old Oak Common to Birmingham Curzon Street and never went elsewhere would be a white elephant not least because there would still need to be 2tph fasts from Birmingham to Euston on the WCML to serve Coventry. I dont think anyone could justify only building that if the rest of it was shelved but I guess we are talking about cancelling Crewe to Manchester here and assuming Euston is built.

Cov is an HS2 loser but doesn't deserve two fasts on its own. Like Stockport (and as another example the quieter Merseyrail stations) it is served at the level it is out of operational convenience.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Sep 2021 ==

But Phase 1/2a don't really have any extra London services to Manchester than today (3tph HS2 replaces 3tph Pendolino), and has no Birmingham services at all. So has no real extra demand on (or release of) Stockport capacity than today.

It's Phase 2b that enables the released capacity by, in effect, removing the majority of London services (and some Birmingham services) from the Stockport route.

Indeed. Like Phase 1 basically exists to relieve the south WCML so places like MK, Watford and Rugby can have a better service, 2b relieves Stockport and local stations there on the same basis (so south Manchester locals might look a bit more like Merseyrail). I'm not sure the eastern leg really has the same needs in the same way.

The key to understanding HS2 is understanding that its main purpose is *not* getting people to the Midlands and North quicker - that is just a happy coincidence.

 

[MattRat]

But Phase 1/2a don't really have any extra London services to Manchester than today (3tph HS2 replaces 3tph Pendolino), and has no Birmingham services at all. So has no real extra demand on (or release of) Stockport capacity than today.

It's Phase 2b that enables the released capacity by, in effect, removing the majority of London services (and some Birmingham services) from the Stockport route.

OK, so I did some digging, and the Government are idiots. Phase 2b services will serve Manchester Airport, Phase 1/2a won't. Instead they want them to go through Stockport for some reason. Why exactly can't they just go to Manchester Airport and then on to Manchester? Which then means not going through Stockport.

 

[Ianno87]

All three very successful at what they do. The sole issue there is hard shoulders.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Sep 2021 ==

People band around the term "White Elephant" on anything that doesn't make (in some cases) very ambitious passenger forecasts.

The Channel Tunnel (for example) has transformed cross-Channel travel and made a major dent in several previously key air markets.

Though enough traffic now uses it that Brum doesn't clog up like it used to.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Sep 2021 ==

I wonder how much is also down to modern route planners making people much more aware of alternatives like the A50 too (though the M6T clearly has some effect)

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Sep 2021 ==

OK, so I did some digging, and the Government are idiots. Phase 2b services will serve Manchester Airport, Phase 1/2a won't. Instead they want them to go through Stockport for some reason. Why exactly can't they just go to Manchester Airport and then on to Manchester? Which then means not going through Stockport.

Because of the time consuming nature of reversing at the present Manchester Airport station and equal lack of capacity through Styal (and ending up on the wrong side of Piccadilly).

Manchester Airport HS2 Station is not really about serving Manchester Airport, it is just replicating the "Manchester South M60 Parkway" function that Stockport presently fulfils, on (in effect) two new tracks into Central Manchester. But, by convenience, there happens to be a belting site available in close proximity to Manchester Airport.

 

[Bletchleyite]

OK, so I did some digging, and the Government are idiots. Phase 2b services will serve Manchester Airport, Phase 1/2a won't. Instead they want them to go through Stockport for some reason. Why exactly can't they just go to Manchester Airport and then on to Manchester? Which then means not going through Stockport.

The platforms at the classic Manchester Airport station aren't long enough, it doesn't have enough capacity and it would require a reversal, making the journey times slower than now.

 

[NoRoute]

I'd have thought the bare minimum was the section upto Birmingham and including the connection into the WCML at Lichfield, thereby serving Birmingham and benefitting services to the North West by moving them off the southern half of the WCML.

If the Eastern leg gets shelved I wonder if there's a case for using the capacity released on the southern half of the WCML to serve the East Midlands and North, via a link between Leicester and Northampton, or Leicester and Rugby to bring services from the Midlands into Euston. An economical increase in capacity to the Midlands.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I'd have thought the bare minimum was the section upto Birmingham and including the connection into the WCML at Lichfield, thereby serving Birmingham and benefitting services to the North West by moving them off the southern half of the WCML.

If the Eastern leg gets shelved I wonder if there's a case for using the capacity released on the southern half of the WCML to serve the East Midlands and North, via a link between Leicester and Northampton, or Leicester and Rugby to bring services from the Midlands into Euston. An economical increase in capacity to the Midlands.

The most economical increase in capacity to the east Midlands would just be to increase the order of 80x such that all trains run doubled up. There is no need for complex solutions when the existing line is running nowhere near capacity with lots of short trains.

 

[MattRat]

Because of the time consuming nature of reversing at the present Manchester Airport station and equal lack of capacity through Styal (and ending up on the wrong side of Piccadilly).

The platforms at the classic Manchester Airport station aren't long enough, it doesn't have enough capacity and it would require a reversal, making the journey times slower than now.

Is there any way into Manchester that isn't at capacity? I mean, Manchester isn't THAT boned, right?

 

[Ianno87]

Is there any way into Manchester that isn't at capacity? I mean, Manchester isn't THAT boned, right?

Only one that has any spare capacity would be the approach via Guide Bridge (by virtue of most TPE services now operating into Victoria).

Or routes have capacity (e.g. Atherton), but that runs out once you join other routes in Central Manchester.

 

[HSTEd]

Is there any way into Manchester that isn't at capacity? I mean, Manchester isn't THAT boned, right?

The Atherton line perhaps?

 

[MattRat]

Only one that has any spare capacity would be the approach via Guide Bridge (by virtue of most TPE services now operating into Victoria).

You'd have to introduce a new curve from the south heading towards Piccadiliy it seems. The other way seems to go too far out of the way.

 

[Ianno87]

You'd have to introduce a new curve from the south heading towards Piccadiliy it seems.

Which is basically what the proposed Phase 2b route is!

 

[GrimsbyPacer]

HS2 only got permission to be built from parliament and royal assent with the term "Full Y-shaped network" applied, as far as I am concerned, HS2 ltd are in breach of contract, and planning permission if they build the network without the Eastern Leg.

 

[JKF]

HS2 only got permission to be built from parliament and royal assent with the term "Full Y-shaped network" applied, as far as I am concerned, HS2 ltd are in breach of contract, and planning permission if they build the network without the Eastern Leg.

Hence why it will be ‘postponed’ rather than cancelled, although I doubt that there’s any legal obligation to build the entire network.

 

[The Planner]

HS2 only got permission to be built from parliament and royal assent with the term "Full Y-shaped network" applied, as far as I am concerned, HS2 ltd are in breach of contract, and planning permission if they build the network without the Eastern Leg.

Each phase needs royal assent though, its not just one thing. Phase 1 and 2A have theirs. 2B they could conceivably split and make it 2B for the western leg and 2C for the eastern. Remember that royal assent gives them the powers to build, they dont have to build it. Phase 1 has parts that arent being built such as some of the railheads.