Could scotland survive as an independent country?

[Intercity110]

let's say scotland achieve independence, could they be completely independent from the kingdom of england and wales? i think no, due to defence and they wouldn't be recognised as an independent country.

 

[gswindale]

If

let's say scotland achieve independence, could they be completely independent from the kingdom of england and wales? i think no, due to defence and they wouldn't be recognised as an independent country.

Why wouldn't they be recognised as an independent country if they achieve independence?

 

[McRhu]

I think defence and national security would be major issues. NATO membership (in my opinion) would be a must as would very close links with other friendly intelligence services and their resources. I think that goes without saying and for my money it’s a sine qua non. Within the nationalist movement there is some resistance to the idea of NATO membership although I suspect this to be a small but significant minority.

In short I personally think Scotland would continue to rely very heavily on the goodwill and generosity of its friends and neighbours. There are nation states who actively promote division and would get their crowbars in every crack given the opportunity.

If I might also add another opinion… I don’t subscribe to the view that Scotland should leave the UK with no thought as to the consequences for the other nations. If ‘twere done ‘twere best done amicably and with good grace and some well thought out gives and takes. No belligerence. Scotland would always be reliant on a degree of benevolence (quite apart from hard headed politics and trade deals) from its neighbour should it ever vote to become independent .

 

[Intercity110]

If

Why wouldn't they be recognised as an independent country if they achieve independence?

as the UK we'd have to confirm it as a meber of the UN Security Council

 

[Cloud Strife]

let's say scotland achieve independence, could they be completely independent from the kingdom of england and wales? i think no, due to defence and they wouldn't be recognised as an independent country.

What?

Seriously, what?

Scotland would probably quickly join NATO, for the simple reason that Russia has changed everything, even within the SNP.

 

[Magdalia]

let's say scotland achieve independence, could they be completely independent from the kingdom of england and wales? i think no, due to defence and they wouldn't be recognised as an independent country.

If Scotland had voted for independence in the 2014 referendum then it would have been recognised as an independent country. Same would apply for any subsequent referendum that had been passed into law in the UK parliament.

But there were lots of unanswered questions in the 2014 referendum campaign.

These included defence, where the most difficult issue is the UK military bases in Scotland that have nuclear weapons.

Another issue where the 2014 independence campaign fell down was currency.

And, following on from Brexit, independence now requires a land border between England and Scotland which did not need to be considered in 2014.

 

[dosxuk]

And, following on from Brexit, independence now requires a land border between England and Scotland which did not need to be considered in 2014.

Surely that depends on the requirements of the future relationship between Scotland and the remains of the UK?

Pre-brexit, if Scotland found itself unable to join the EU, a border would have been required too anyway.

 

[Bletchleyite]

In short yes. It would be very similar in my mind to the Republic of Ireland.

Wales OTOH I'm less convinced.

 

[Bevan Price]

I cannot understand why some SNP members want to replace "management from London" by "management from Brussels".
IF an independent Scotland did join EU, it would not get the favourable terms that UK had before Brexit.
EU would require trade barriers between Scotland and "Rest of UK" that would be difficult and expensive to enforce -- just look at the problems there have been with Ireland, and then remember that a land border is even harder to police than a cross-sea border. (Scotland would have no choice in this matter if it was a full member of EU)
EU would probably require Scotland to move to adopt the Euro currency, with consequential currency exchange fees to buy pounds if Scots wanted to visit Rest of UK.
If Scotland also entered the Schengen area, the UK Tories would probably want to curb movement of people between "them and us", as part of controlling immigration into "Rest of UK"

 

[McRhu]

@Bevan Price

I think approx. 1/3 of the Nationalists have similar doubts about the EU on the basis that joining it would in invalidate any true sovereignty. Incidentally, be aware that the SNP is simply one element of the independence movement and is currently out of favour with the more impatient parts, to the extent that its commitment to independence is vigorously doubted: especially just now

 

[Ianigsy]

It could survive, but I doubt it could thrive and I doubt it would ever be truly independent in the sense of being able to make its own unfettered way in the world. Prior to the 2014 referendum, pretty much all the major Scottish financial institutions indicated that they would re-register in England to have the benefit of the Bank of England’s safety net.

Although there’s a lot of goodwill towards Scotland around the world because of the diaspora, at some point an independent Scotland would have to start paying its way without Westminster funding. The government of Scotland would need to make a lot of friends quickly, particularly if they found themselves dealing with a Westminster government which found it expedient to drive a hard bargain in the independence settlement.

 

[deltic]

There is no reason why it couldn't thrive, there are lots of small independent states out there doing very nicely thank you. Ireland being the one closest to home. It depends on the deal it can negotiate with the EU and England.

 

[tomuk]

There is no reason why it couldn't thrive, there are lots of small independent states out there doing very nicely thank you. Ireland being the one closest to home. It depends on the deal it can negotiate with the EU and England.

Ireland has only done well due to it acting as defacto offshore tax haven. A situation the EU were happy with in the past as it reduced the required subsidies. Now not so much.

 

[43096]

The government of Scotland would need to make a lot of friends quickly, particularly if they found themselves dealing with a Westminster government which found it expedient to drive a hard bargain in the independence settlement.

There is no reason why it couldn't thrive, there are lots of small independent states out there doing very nicely thank you. Ireland being the one closest to home. It depends on the deal it can negotiate with the EU and England.

Why would any Westminster government do anything other than drive a hard bargain? For Scotland leaving the UK, they'd be in the same negotiating position as the UK leaving the EU.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

One word answer - yes. Certain compromises may have to be made by its citizens but no reason why they could not be independent.

Scotland would probably quickly join NATO, for the simple reason that Russia has changed everything, even within the SNP.

Exactly

 

[Bletchleyite]

Ireland has only done well due to it acting as defacto offshore tax haven. A situation the EU were happy with in the past as it reduced the required subsidies. Now not so much.

It might not be a Celtic tiger any more, but it's still a viable economy, and a larger one than a number of the EU countries.

Wales OTOH would be more like Albania. It's heavily dependent on large English cities neighbouring it and has mostly a farming and tourism economy.

 

[tomuk]

It might not be a Celtic tiger any more, but it's still a viable economy, and a larger one than a number of the EU countries.

Wales OTOH would be more like Albania. It's heavily dependent on large English cities neighbouring it and has mostly a farming and tourism economy.

I'm not necessarily saying that Ireland doesn't have a viable economy but the distortion in its economy due to its reliance on "multinational tax schemes" hides some of the true fundamentals that only show themselves when things go wrong such as the hard hit after the 2008 global crisis. Moves to a more equitable territorial company tax system ie reform of us corporation tax rules specifically and global tax rules generally will mean Ireland will need to wean itself off the 'easy' growth through tax schemes.

As regards Wales unfortunately I generally agree with what you say, Wales continues to be a dependant much to the ongoing, it would appear ignorance, of their government.

 

[Fleetmaster]

Survive but not thrive.

I can see the divorce being such a one sided yet angry affair and the SNP handling the first two terms so badly, particularly the currency, that they are eventually wiped out and Scottish poltics normalizes to a two party red-blue situation.

Permanently weekened and with no real reforms affected, the country staggers along as a small and insignificant player, looking further and further inward. It is denied entry to the EU due to its perpetually poor economy.

It's politics become very Irish. Problems with housing and public services, corruption, culture wars. All internal. No international presence to speak of.

England doesn't particularly want them back and the Scots are too proud to ask anyway.

 

[GusB]

Survive but not thrive.

Nonsense. There's no reason why we cannot thrive. There are other similar-sized nations that are independent and they seem to do just fine.

I can see the divorce being such a one sided yet angry affair and the SNP handling the first two terms so badly, particularly the currency, that they are eventually wiped out and Scottish poltics normalizes to a two party red-blue situation.

Our electoral system means that the two-party red-blue system is less likely to happen. If the divorce is to be a one sided angry affair, it won't be us that causes it!

Permanently weekened and with no real reforms affected, the country staggers along as a small and insignificant player, looking further and further inward. It is denied entry to the EU due to its perpetually poor economy.

I'm not sure why you think we'd be permanently weakened. I'd not be so sure about being denied entry to the EU, either.

It's politics become very Irish. Problems with housing and public services, corruption, culture wars. All internal. No international presence to speak of.

There are issues with housing and public services throughout the UK. They're problems that can be solved with sufficient political will. As for corruption and culture wars - have you looked at the Tory party recently?

England doesn't particularly want them back and the Scots are too proud to ask anyway.

The true colours are finally showing.

 

[Falcon1200]

It could survive, but I doubt it could thrive

Survive but not thrive.

My view as well. Among the insults often thrown by Nationalists at Unionists is that 'you don't believe in Scotland' and that by having reservations about an independent Scotland's future 'you are doing the country down'. OTOH I have no doubt whatsoever that Scotland would be perfectly capable of governing itself as an independent country. My opposition to independence is because I see few benefits but huge disadvantages, of which creating an artificial divide with the rest of the UK, our largest by far trading partner, and a separate currency, are just two. IMHO any gains from independence would be far outweighed by losses and therefore Scotland would survive, but not thrive and would struggle.

 

[Fleetmaster]

Nonsense. There's no reason why we cannot thrive. There are other similar-sized nations that are independent and they seem to do just fine.

Such as? The UK isn't doing too badly, even though we're facing multiple crises at once. Which small Western countries are doing just fine fight now?

The Baltic states, cowering in fear of Russia, becoming the world's largest tank parks? The Nordic countries, rapidly trying to deal with the same threat and other assorted socio economic shocks? Are any of the small ex soviet bloc countries really doing fine?

Switzerland used to be everyone's favorite model country, but it has taken not much at all to explode that to pieces.

The mild mannered easy going Dutch couldn't avoid the sort of political crisis that could very well rip Scotland apart, and they've had centuries to understand the benefits of doing just fine as a small but somewhat important European state.

I guess Belgium could be considered to be doing just fine. But it would seem a little odd for Scotland to be modeling itself on a country that found an identity and a powerful role in the EU by proactively unifying entirely different cultures and regions, as well as fully integrating itself into its closest neighbors, whatever the cost to the national interest (arguably Belgium cannot even survive as an independent country without daily cross border commuting and supra national citizen identity in ways that are entirely irrelevant to Scotland).

Austria was fine, more than fine, until it wasn't.

Czech Republic? Surely more than fine. A success, even. Does Scotland even remotely have the sort of calm, mature, level headed attitude to nation building?

Do you fancy yourselves as the new Portugal maybe? I'd be fine with that. Lots of good historical parallels. I'll give you 20 to 1 that Scotland is capable of charting that course.

Doesn't deem much point expanding the search beyond Europe, given it seems quite hard to find great examples even in that very dense area of independent countries, who seem to think being independent is such a weakness they're happy to drive headlong toward ever closer political union and be seen as naked profiteers from armed conflict on their doorstep, and where not even stuff like abandoning the rule of law and becoming institutionally -phobic isn't considered enough to expell a member.

Our electoral system means that the two-party red-blue system is less likely to happen. If the divorce is to be a one sided angry affair, it won't be us that causes it!

If you say so. Take a lesson from Europe though. Perpetual coalition and amplification of extremes, are hardly a recipe for political stability. You pretty much need to be sure you will be fine from day one, and forever more. Sounds like a fantasy to me.

I'm not sure why you think we'd be permanently weakened. I'd not be so sure about being denied entry to the EU, either.

I explained why in the post, on both points. One follows the other. If your only chance of EU membership is the EU just wants to screw with RoUK so will abandon whatever principles or rules they need to make it happen, well, I'm not sure I would even want to be in that club.

There are issues with housing and public services throughout the UK. They're problems that can be solved with sufficient political will. As for corruption and culture wars - have you looked at the Tory party recently?

And yet they don't define this country in any way. This stuff is headline news in Ireland, all day, every day. It is nothing like the country they thought they were headed for as the Republic. How ironic that they eventually had to look back into their own history to turn to terrorists to find stability and a renewed sense of purpose as their former national identity crumbled to bits, taking their political norms with them. There's literally nothing else going on in their lives now that the Tiger was declawed beyond these major arguments about who is is blame for things in Ireland being very much not fine, other than, of course, their unwanted reminders that their botched uprising against their Imperial oppressors left a bitter legacy that will last generations. A lesson for Scotland there, perhaps.

The true colours are finally showing.

I'm an ethnic Scot. I don't need a nation to define me.

I took a Masters degree in Edinburgh not too long ago, and the only times I ever felt a connection to the true Scotland, were in the bar fights and racist football fans. The places where the polis are feart to tread, as they always were.

In every other way, my studies, my social life, my transport and living needs, I might as well have been in London, since like it or not, present day Scotland just isn't very...Scottish in any meaningful way. Most of your values and culture and the very fabric of the nation are straight up British or European or global melting pot.

I could list all the uniquely Scottish things that have disappeared in a mere twenty years, the little things that remind you of home, rather than grand EU funded projects, and ask you if or when an independent Scotland would restore them. But I think everyone where knows these things aren't coming back, just ask the Welsh or the Cornish. We can already see the SNP is failing miserably in rooting out the uniquely bad Scottish stuff. Independence won't fix that. How can it?

Trips to Aberdeen and the far north reveled the same resentment of the metropolitan elite of the capital as is observed in UK life. It's the bad seed that will poison the well, hastening the transition of the Scottish Parliament into an entirely useless three or even four block perma coalition, where Aberdonians will be as irrelevant or as powerful as Bristolians. Your genius idea, if your Parliament can get a majority for five minutes, will be more local devolution and leveling up. You will copy England's homework. We shall send you Johnson and Blair as consultants!

 

[GusB]

Such as? The UK isn't doing too badly, even though we're facing multiple crises at once. Which small Western countries are doing just fine fight now?

The Baltic states, cowering in fear of Russia, becoming the world's largest tank parks? The Nordic countries, rapidly trying to deal with the same threat and other assorted socio economic shocks? Are any of the small ex soviet bloc countries really doing fine?

Switzerland used to be everyone's favorite model country, but it has taken not much at all to explode that to pieces.

The mild mannered easy going Dutch couldn't avoid the sort of political crisis that could very well rip Scotland apart, and they've had centuries to understand the benefits of doing just fine as a small but somewhat important European state.

I guess Belgium could be considered to be doing just fine. But it would seem a little odd for Scotland to be modeling itself on a country that found an identity and a powerful role in the EU by proactively unifying entirely different cultures and regions, as well as fully integrating itself into its closest neighbors, whatever the cost to the national interest (arguably Belgium cannot even survive as an independent country without daily cross border commuting and supra national citizen identity in ways that are entirely irrelevant to Scotland).

Austria was fine, more than fine, until it wasn't.

Czech Republic? Surely more than fine. A success, even. Does Scotland even remotely have the sort of calm, mature, level headed attitude to nation building?

Do you fancy yourselves as the new Portugal maybe? I'd be fine with that. Lots of good historical parallels. I'll give you 20 to 1 that Scotland is capable of charting that course.

Doesn't deem much point expanding the search beyond Europe, given it seems quite hard to find great examples even in that very dense area of independent countries, who seem to think being independent is such a weakness they're happy to drive headlong toward ever closer political union and be seen as naked profiteers from armed conflict on their doorstep, and where not even stuff like abandoning the rule of law and becoming institutionally -phobic isn't considered enough to expell a member.


If you say so. Take a lesson from Europe though. Perpetual coalition and amplification of extremes, are hardly a recipe for political stability. You pretty much need to be sure you will be fine from day one, and forever more. Sounds like a fantasy to me.

I explained why in the post, on both points. One follows the other. If your only chance of EU membership is the EU just wants to screw with RoUK so will abandon whatever principles or rules they need to make it happen, well, I'm not sure I would even want to be in that club.

And yet they don't define this country in any way. This stuff is headline news in Ireland, all day, every day. It is nothing like the country they thought they were headed for as the Republic. How ironic that they eventually had to look back into their own history to turn to terrorists to find stability and a renewed sense of purpose as their former national identity crumbled to bits, taking their political norms with them. There's literally nothing else going on in their lives now that the Tiger was declawed beyond these major arguments about who is is blame for things in Ireland being very much not fine, other than, of course, their unwanted reminders that their botched uprising against their Imperial oppressors left a bitter legacy that will last generations. A lesson for Scotland there, perhaps.

I'm an ethnic Scot. I don't need a nation to define me.

I took a Masters degree in Edinburgh not too long ago, and the only times I ever felt a connection to the true Scotland, were in the bar fights and racist football fans. The places where the polis are feart to tread, as they always were.

In every other way, my studies, my social life, my transport and living needs, I might as well have been in London, since like it or not, present day Scotland just isn't very...Scottish in any meaningful way. Most of your values and culture and the very fabric of the nation are straight up British or European or global melting pot.

I could list all the uniquely Scottish things that have disappeared in a mere twenty years, the little things that remind you of home, rather than grand EU funded projects, and ask you if or when an independent Scotland would restore them. But I think everyone where knows these things aren't coming back, just ask the Welsh or the Cornish. We can already see the SNP is failing miserably in rooting out the uniquely bad Scottish stuff. Independence won't fix that. How can it?

Trips to Aberdeen and the far north reveled the same resentment of the metropolitan elite of the capital as is observed in UK life. It's the bad seed that will poison the well, hastening the transition of the Scottish Parliament into an entirely useless three or even four block perma coalition, where Aberdonians will be as irrelevant or as powerful as Bristolians. Your genius idea, if your Parliament can get a majority for five minutes, will be more local devolution and leveling up. You will copy England's homework. We shall send you Johnson and Blair as consultants!

You're an ethnic Scot? Jeezo!

 

[Noddy]

Good job we don’t have any First Nations or we would be in danger of going full Québécois.

Could Scotland survive as an independent country? Absolutely!

Would it be better off in or out of the UK? That is where the debate is. In my view not in the short or medium term, given the lack of studying what has and hasn’t worked in other countries, together with the ambiguous nature of policy which means there is no clear aim or objective of what an iScotland is trying to achieve and the drive to get there, other the independence from ‘Westmonster’.

 

[Fleetmaster]

This is the weakness of Scottish Independence all round. Some want it for emotional reasons, some want it for selfish reasons, some see it as a political act for the common good.

Although the same can be said of the unionists case, they have the massive advantage of the status quo.

It's tremendously easy for unionists to bog them down in details and get them talking amongst themselves rather than presenting a unified front working toward a simple common goal.

It's quite similar to how the Tories find it pretty easy to nullify the Labour "movement" in the simple matter of politics, since it ceased to be a movement quite a long time ago.

 

[deltic]

Such as? The UK isn't doing too badly, even though we're facing multiple crises at once. Which small Western countries are doing just fine fight now?

The Baltic states, cowering in fear of Russia, becoming the world's largest tank parks? The Nordic countries, rapidly trying to deal with the same threat and other assorted socio economic shocks? Are any of the small ex soviet bloc countries really doing fine?

Switzerland used to be everyone's favorite model country, but it has taken not much at all to explode that to pieces.

The mild mannered easy going Dutch couldn't avoid the sort of political crisis that could very well rip Scotland apart, and they've had centuries to understand the benefits of doing just fine as a small but somewhat important European state.

I guess Belgium could be considered to be doing just fine. But it would seem a little odd for Scotland to be modeling itself on a country that found an identity and a powerful role in the EU by proactively unifying entirely different cultures and regions, as well as fully integrating itself into its closest neighbors, whatever the cost to the national interest (arguably Belgium cannot even survive as an independent country without daily cross border commuting and supra national citizen identity in ways that are entirely irrelevant to Scotland).

Austria was fine, more than fine, until it wasn't.

Czech Republic? Surely more than fine. A success, even. Does Scotland even remotely have the sort of calm, mature, level headed attitude to nation building?

Do you fancy yourselves as the new Portugal maybe? I'd be fine with that. Lots of good historical parallels. I'll give you 20 to 1 that Scotland is capable of charting that course.

An interesting list of countries, in terms of output per person and ignoring Ireland (dodgy national accounts) and Norway (oil economy); Switzerland, Denmark, Netherlands, Austria, Iceland, Sweden, Belgium and Finland are all doing better than the UK.

Whether Scotland can thrive depends on the economic policies it pursues which would need to be very different than the ones it has now.

 

[Fleetmaster]

An interesting list of countries, in terms of output per person and ignoring Ireland (dodgy national accounts) and Norway (oil economy); Switzerland, Denmark, Netherlands, Austria, Iceland, Sweden, Belgium and Finland are all doing better than the UK.

Whether Scotland can thrive depends on the economic policies it pursues which would need to be very different than the ones it has now.

The UK and Switzerland just experienced two very similar financial crises, borne of politicians wrongly assuming they are in sole charge of their economic destiny. The markets begged to differ.

The size, strength and political nimbleness of the UK meant it has weathered this storm. There will be consequences for citizens, but they pale in comparison to Covid and Ukraine and the climate crisis.

Switzerland has none of these advantages, and as a consequence, they are absolutely screwed for a generation if not more. The EU are absolutely loving it. Fresh meat for the grinder, more easy marks in their geopolitical games.

An independent Scotland is unlikely to be any better at designing and managing an economy than the Swiss.

 

[Meerkat]

Of course the Scots could survive as an independent country in the medium/long term, but the transition would be very ugly as the deficits would have to be fixed and the currency situation sorted whilst having no real credit record.
NATO would be very difficult for the SNP - AIUI to join NATO you have to accept the principle of joint nuclear deterrence, and materially support it. Also I would imagine NATO and the Americans would get very uppity if the SNP tried to force the UK deterrent out in a hurry. Though I think the UK would be in a hurry to move it for a variety of reasons (after the immigration enforcement shambles would UKG trust the SNP to order Scottish Police to protect the nuclear bases, convoys to Aldermaston and subs transiting in and out of the Clyde?).
Negotiations for Scotland to join the EU would be pretty brutal - the rich countries wouldn't want a net recipient in without a serious pound of flesh, and theoretically they can not join without meeting the convergence criteria for the Euro (even if they don't immediately join the Euro).
I can foresee a big clash between the SNP's assumption that the Common Travel Area will apply and their intention to encourage immigration.

 

[McRhu]

I think that there would be an ongoing entity of some kind, but whether it would still be “Scotland” is another matter. By that I mean the sovereign, equable, prosperous place, with its roots in history, that is the nationalist vision.

Regardless, I am now tending ever so slightly to the belief that the SNP are indeed kicking independence into the long grass, presumably having read the runes.

 

[Snow1964]

It might be Independent in that it manages itself without London interference day to day. But not fully separate outside things like NATO.

But I suspect it will quickly join the EU, and go the way of somewhere like Croatia, eventually adopting Euro, having Brussels as the ultimate leader of the Federation.

I can easily see a new Government going back to common trade area with EU, because the current bodged borders system is just admin heavy and doesn't really achieve anything better than pre Brexit, and just causes friction with Unionists.

 

[D6130]

But I suspect it will quickly join the EU, and go the way of somewhere like Croatia, eventually adopting Euro, having Brussels as the ultimate leader of the Federation.

I think the EU would do everything in its power to stop an independant Scotland from joining, for fear of encouraging other independence movements in places such as Catalonia and Corsica.