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Could Polesworth Get a Proper Service?

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Nottingham59

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Seems to me that upping the LNWR London-Crewe service to half-hourly, with an additional stop at Polesworth (and perhaps, Watford Junction) would be a perfect way to take advantage of the additional WCML capacity that is freed up by HS2. I'm not sure that having some of the current Avanti services slowed down through the Trent Valley changes that logic.
After HS2 phase 1, I can't see there will be capacity at Colwich to accommodate any more than two trains on the Trent Valley north of Lichfield - one fast, one slow. Everything else through Colwich will go on HS2.

There may be opportunities to turn a second stopper in the sidings at Lichfield, of course. And any number of fast trains, but with no big cities to generate traffic they will be quite empty.
 
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JonathanH

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After HS2 phase 1, I can't see there will be capacity at Colwich to accommodate any more than two trains on the Trent Valley north of Lichfield - one fast, one slow. Everything else through Colwich will go on HS2.
The map in the business case https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...-wcml-south-of-handsacre.255835/#post-6445043 appeared to show three, a Manchester, a North Wales, and the Crewe stopper, but that service pattern can by no means be locked down. (In particular, the idea of loads of through working of stopping services from London across Birmingham failed when it was tried.)
 

AlastairFraser

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Define reasonable. I doubt the original sections of the slows will ever be raised above 75. Especially with HS2.
An investment in the line that could be paid back by the extra passengers originating from Polesworth within 10 years.
If you use neighbouring Atherstone as an example (a town of a similar size with a similar actual/potential service offer), that station had 98,860 entries a year in 2022-23.

Let's halve that as a conservative estimate.

49,430 entries per year, x10. London Euston is the most common destination from Atherstone, but to use the mean average of the lowest return fare of top five most frequent destinations as the average would give us the closest to the average amount of fare revenue the railway would collect over ten years from an effectively reopened Polesworth station.
I am aware this methodology is flawed, but we have no better way to produce a very rough estimate of the passenger volume post-upgrade (unless you know of one).

The calculation would be 49,430* £16.26 * 10 = £8,037,318.
Now what work could you do for that amount, to permit a stop at Polesworth station?
 

DynamicSpirit

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I'm not sure that thinking in terms of 'LNwR' and 'Avanti' services is the right point though. They would effectively blend into one after HS2 as more stops are added to the residual WCML services.

I guess the distinction I'm thinking of is between long distance trains that still run via the WCML using Pendolinos (or whatever is built to replace them) and commuter-ish services that use the commuter-type stock of LNWR, with centre carriage doors etc. designed to let people travelling short distances get on and off easily. Those are surely the services that you'd want stopping at most stations along the Trent Valley. I don't think it's going to make sense to have a Pendolino stopping at Rugby-Nuneaton-Tamworth-Lichfield because the stock just isn't designed for people to travel short distances.

I realise that the actually names of the TOCs probably won't exist in 10 years' time, but LNWR/Avanti seems the best way to distinguish the two operations.
 

The Planner

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If

Or how about actually give a town of 10k a proper rail service. They don't even need to reinstate the footbridge. In theory just building a second entrance from the road bridge would do.

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Not really. Good bike storage and maybe a local minibus service could do fine.
You misunderstand the local area. If Polesworth was upgraded, its going to abstract people who drive to Tamworth and they will park in the village. Who is providing the minibus? Look on GoogleMaps and consider the risks of increased numbers of pedestrians over it.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

An investment in the line that could be paid back by the extra passengers originating from Polesworth within 10 years.
If you use neighbouring Atherstone as an example (a town of a similar size with a similar actual/potential service offer), that station had 98,860 entries a year in 2022-23.

Let's halve that as a conservative estimate.

49,430 entries per year, x10. London Euston is the most common destination from Atherstone, but to use the mean average of the lowest return fare of top five most frequent destinations as the average would give us the closest to the average amount of fare revenue the railway would collect over ten years from an effectively reopened Polesworth station.
I am aware this methodology is flawed, but we have no better way to produce a very rough estimate of the passenger volume post-upgrade (unless you know of one).

The calculation would be 49,430* £16.26 * 10 = £8,037,318.
Now what work could you do for that amount, to permit a stop at Polesworth station?
8 million? Nothing much, would get you the footbridge and probably a car park. Nothing of value on the rails.
 

Mgameing123

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You misunderstand the local area. If Polesworth was upgraded, its going to abstract people who drive to Tamworth and they will park in the village. Who is providing the minibus? Look on GoogleMaps and consider the risks of increased numbers of pedestrians over it.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==


8 million? Nothing much, would get you the footbridge and probably a car park. Nothing of value on the rails.
The minibus service could be contracted to a local bus operator in the area.
 

DynamicSpirit

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8 million? Nothing much, would get you the footbridge and probably a car park. Nothing of value on the rails.

Or away from the railways and away from the SouthEast, 8 million would buy you about 40 decent sized houses at £200K each. If the railway equivalent is one footbridge plus a car park, that seems to suggest that something is very wrong with how much stuff on the railways costs.

Agree with you though that to some extent, income from a revamped Polesworth would come from abstracting away from Tamworth.
 

The Planner

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Or away from the railways and away from the SouthEast, 8 million would buy you about 40 decent sized houses at £200K each. If the railway equivalent is one footbridge plus a car park, that seems to suggest that something is very wrong with how much stuff on the railways costs.
I don't think anyone disagrees with that, including those working within it. Not sure where you are getting a decent sized house for £200k though in a lots places outside the north and Wales now.
 

geordieblue

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An investment in the line that could be paid back by the extra passengers originating from Polesworth within 10 years.
If you use neighbouring Atherstone as an example (a town of a similar size with a similar actual/potential service offer), that station had 98,860 entries a year in 2022-23.

Let's halve that as a conservative estimate.

49,430 entries per year, x10. London Euston is the most common destination from Atherstone, but to use the mean average of the lowest return fare of top five most frequent destinations as the average would give us the closest to the average amount of fare revenue the railway would collect over ten years from an effectively reopened Polesworth station.
I am aware this methodology is flawed, but we have no better way to produce a very rough estimate of the passenger volume post-upgrade (unless you know of one).

The calculation would be 49,430* £16.26 * 10 = £8,037,318.
Now what work could you do for that amount, to permit a stop at Polesworth station?
The 98,860 figure from Atherstone will include entries and exits - so should theoretically consist of 49,430 return fares - so if you’re conservatively halving the 98,860 number then that’d conservatively be 24,215 returns sold to/from Polesworth. Aware that the methodology is a bit fag packet anyway - and you’re probably underestimating demand too - but going off your calculations I think it’d be more like £4million. No idea what that would buy (it’s certainly cheaper than a ‘full’ station reopening, with new platform construction etc).
 

AlastairFraser

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8 million? Nothing much, would get you the footbridge and probably a car park. Nothing of value on the rails.
Fair enough. So essentially you could reopen the southbound platform with a new footbridge and introduce a car park (which would attract custom, given Atherstone's paltry 17 spaces and the next large car park eastbound being Nuneaton).
The 98,860 figure from Atherstone will include entries and exits - so should theoretically consist of 49,430 return fares - so if you’re conservatively halving the 98,860 number then that’d conservatively be 24,215 returns sold to/from Polesworth. Aware that the methodology is a bit fag packet anyway - and you’re probably underestimating demand too - but going off your calculations I think it’d be more like £4million. No idea what that would buy (it’s certainly cheaper than a ‘full’ station reopening, with new platform construction etc).
Network Rail recently delivered an accessible footbridge with lifts for £3.6 million at Dumfries station, so perhaps you'd have 500k left over or more (depending on how far above 4 million you were) to build a car park and then you'd need more funding.
 

Nottingham59

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Polesworth would be a great place for one of Labour's New Towns, with the station relocated 500m to the West, with four platforms on the WCML and platforms on a resurrected Eastern arm of HS2. The development uplift from say 300,000 new homes would easily justify the investment.
 

AlastairFraser

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Polesworth would be a great place for one of Labour's New Towns, with the station relocated 500m to the West, with four platforms on the WCML and platforms on a resurrected Eastern arm of HS2. The development uplift from say 300,000 new homes would easily justify the investment.
300 thousand?! Have you added an extra digit somewhere? That's a new city, and I'm not sure there is even the land for that in the Polesworth area!
 

Nottingham59

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300 thousand?! Have you added an extra digit somewhere? That's a new city, and I'm not sure there is even the land for that in the Polesworth area!
Labour are targetting 1.5 million new homes in five years. So they need five of these new towns/cities. Let's call it Polesworth Magna. About the same geographical area as Milton Keynes, but twice the population density. See the discussion over at
 

AlastairFraser

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Labour are targetting 1.5 million new homes in five years. So they need five of these new towns/cities. Let's call it Polesworth Magna. About the same geographical area as Milton Keynes, but twice the population density. See the discussion over at
1.5 million homes is perfectly possible, but split across 15 sites at the very least.
There's not enough land for anything more than about 10,000 homes at Polesworth - you abut Tamworth in one direction, and most of the rest of the land is flood plain.

10,000 new homes would be good as a commuter base for Birmingham though.

If you want enough land for any concentrated settlement of more than 50,000 new houses, you'll need to look at a lot of post-industrial areas elsewhere e.g. East Lancs.
 
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