Coronavirus.

[Bletchleyite]

So why hasn't the government said this ?

Because most people won't understand that? The CMO and deputy have been giving a lot of detail and to me are very confidence-inspiring. And the ministerial side has been rather better in Bojo's absence, though I believe he's making a reappearance on Friday.

 

[Mogster]

So why hasn't the government said this ?

Well he did, he just summarised in a couple of sentences. I can see that they don’t want to provide too much detail as as Bletchlyite says people may decide they can’t understand it and switch off.

 

[Jozhua]

that is certainly a concern.you are seeing the effects of lockdown starting to bite in italy now, they are beginning to get stressed out.
It was jovial enough in the beginning with singing from balconies etc, but you are seeing the beginnings of non-compliance and civil disobedience there now.

I think probably a month is about the limit of this sort of action before people get restless.
We're only a week in here, so I think for now things will remain relatively orderly, but there's no guarantee that things can't/won't go south in a big way the longer this goes on.

(most people working from home/locked in are juggling between working from home part time and doing projects around the house they've been meaning to get round to for a while, but once those projects are completed they will need to invest some time and effort into other interests to keep themselves out of mischief/occupied....maybe a good time to look at some online tuition/education, as well as a bit of some physical activity.must keep both mind and body in good nick.)

Some of the issues in southern Italy is a large amount of cash in hand business, so little room for manoeuvre if that cash stops coming in. Plus, it is more deprived and over-run by gangs than the North. Some are arguing gangs are taking advantage of the situation, I think there is probably a mixture of the two.

I get the impression that the policies are being enacted primarily with the North in mind, with little regard for differences in how the South of the country operates. Reminds me a bit of politics here...

But yeah, there is a limit to how long this can go on for. I've essentially been in this for over two weeks already, one week before the actual 'lockdown' was put in place. Whilst obviously there is room for abuse, the government allowing/encouraging outdoor exercise is quite a good idea. A breath of fresh air and just getting out for a walk/run/cycle makes all the difference. If I hadn't been out on my bike at all, I would be struggling a lot more than I am now.

I do wonder how long this can all continue in many western countries. China has the ability to enact strict law and control information. Still, I'd be surprised if there weren't any issues. I'll be watching the situation in Italy with interest.

I also think France's lockdown might begin to crumble, simply because people don't seem to be being let out at all.

I predict they will have to do a “this is what you demanded, now look” where they release restrictions more than they really want to and then pull back after a surge in cases frightens people again.
It will need good testing to catch the surge in infections rather than waiting for the deaths to soar.
But of course too much testing and those who have had it will be a large group with far less incentive to stay indoors and lockdown starts to collapse.
Glad I am sat on a sofa rather than making the decisions!

Hmm, I mean it's a difficult one because no country has an exit strategy. Hopefully we can bring it down to a point where contact tracing works again, but who knows. Really, we should have closed our borders or quarantined people coming in from Italy much sooner, once they started to lose control of the outbreak there.

We definitely need to look at quarantining arrivals into the UK, for at least a week, and testing them before they can go on their trip. Unfortunately the government doesn't seem to even be considering this, so as soon as another country loses their grip on the pandemic, we'll get a load of imported cases again and have to go through this all again...

I think an app for tracing could really help. Obviously you can't tie restrictions on movement or use of public space to having this, but having restaurants or other businesses being able to refuse service either through not presenting said app or being traced into contact with covid positive individuals could help limit spread and bring back some normality.

Ultimately, I think we would be reckless for not closing borders/quarantining arrivals right now. Something like a contact trace app could really help restore some normality, allowing those who pass to go shopping, socialise and eat out.

Obviously these measures would not be ideal, and somewhat draconian, but have to be better and more sustainable than everyone being in lockdown!

Serious questions need to be asked of China. Almost every major epidemic/pandemic of written history has originated there, from the Black Death to Covid-19...

To be fair, a lot of pandemics have emerged outside China, recently though, they're definitely in the high risk category.

Many argue you shouldn't judge the food supply on cultural norms but there are some major issues, which put China at a heightened risk.

• Bats are a major carrier of viruses, due to them being flying mammals and the adaptations they have made to be able to do this under the constraints of mammal physiology.
• Wet markets mixing different live anim species together. In fact, Sars-2 didn't make the jump straight to us, it jumped to a pangolin first. The poor hygiene of these markets often sees various forms of animal goop (pee, poop, pus, blood, etc...) drip down onto other animals, some of which are different species. Ultimately, you couldn't make a better breeding ground for these types of diseases.

Ultimately, we need to take a hard look at these industries and how we treat animals. Avoiding the moral arguments, simply from a health standpoint, we should be giving them clean places to live with adequate space. The risks presented by factory/battery farming are higher so we should probably take a look at these practices.

China and the rest of southeast Asia should set better standards for storing animals and what to do if multiple live species are in the same room. Obviously it can be done safely, doubt pets at home will be the source of the next global pandemic, so adopting these simple hygiene practices, backed by some strong laws, should reduce risk significantly.

We should also be concerned about our encroachment into wild habitat. A new wave of rainforest destruction is underway in Brazil, to make way for cattle grazing land. Now the cattle will be in contact with a lot of isolated, novel species, before being sent to mix with a load of other cows to slaughter. Doesn't seem like such a great idea.

Edit:
Just read this article, interesting read!
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/28/is-factory-farming-to-blame-for-coronavirus

It is clear that to prevent or at least slow the emergence of new zoonoses, as Fearnley and Lynteris have argued, China’s wet markets will need to be better regulated. But we also need to look behind those markets, at how our food is produced globally.

 

[Peter Kelford]

I'm not sure how you got to that statement from what I previously said? Just to be clear I'm not saying we should "leave people to die", however this is not a species killer although it will claim lives no matter how hard we try, just like all the viruses out there.

Doesn't mean that we shouldn't try, that's what I'm saying. Sorry if we crossed wires a bit.

 

[Bantamzen]

Doesn't mean that we shouldn't try, that's what I'm saying. Sorry if we crossed wires a bit.

And we are doing, however we can't keep these measures up forever, the cracks are already starting to show.

I've said all along that the government should have been more proactive in getting to the people most at risk, i.e. getting in a rigorous testing regime underway and getting them the advice & care that they need to help shield themselves as much as possible. Ironically this is now seemingly the order of the day, having realised that we were probably too far behind the game to curb its spread the government are now in full panic mode trying to source & organise the logistics to getting this done (and failing quite badly at the moment). Its especially worrying that front line staff are still struggling to get tests to them, whilst politicians seem to get them with relative ease. As I understand there are currently some 2,000 key health workers self-isolating with symptoms but have not yet been tested.

The longer this goes on, the more muddled the response seems to be, and the more the government don't seem to be prioritising the measures we need to track & understand the spread of the virus, which is going to be vital in working out how best to get treatments to people once they come on line.

 

[yorksrob]

Some of the issues in southern Italy is a large amount of cash in hand business, so little room for manoeuvre if that cash stops coming in. Plus, it is more deprived and over-run by gangs than the North. Some are arguing gangs are taking advantage of the situation, I think there is probably a mixture of the two.

I get the impression that the policies are being enacted primarily with the North in mind, with little regard for differences in how the South of the country operates. Reminds me a bit of politics here...

But yeah, there is a limit to how long this can go on for. I've essentially been in this for over two weeks already, one week before the actual 'lockdown' was put in place. Whilst obviously there is room for abuse, the government allowing/encouraging outdoor exercise is quite a good idea. A breath of fresh air and just getting out for a walk/run/cycle makes all the difference. If I hadn't been out on my bike at all, I would be struggling a lot more than I am now.

I do wonder how long this can all continue in many western countries. China has the ability to enact strict law and control information. Still, I'd be surprised if there weren't any issues. I'll be watching the situation in Italy with interest.

I also think France's lockdown might begin to crumble, simply because people don't seem to be being let out at all.



Hmm, I mean it's a difficult one because no country has an exit strategy. Hopefully we can bring it down to a point where contact tracing works again, but who knows. Really, we should have closed our borders or quarantined people coming in from Italy much sooner, once they started to lose control of the outbreak there.

We definitely need to look at quarantining arrivals into the UK, for at least a week, and testing them before they can go on their trip. Unfortunately the government doesn't seem to even be considering this, so as soon as another country loses their grip on the pandemic, we'll get a load of imported cases again and have to go through this all again...

I think an app for tracing could really help. Obviously you can't tie restrictions on movement or use of public space to having this, but having restaurants or other businesses being able to refuse service either through not presenting said app or being traced into contact with covid positive individuals could help limit spread and bring back some normality.

Ultimately, I think we would be reckless for not closing borders/quarantining arrivals right now. Something like a contact trace app could really help restore some normality, allowing those who pass to go shopping, socialise and eat out.

Obviously these measures would not be ideal, and somewhat draconian, but have to be better and more sustainable than everyone being in lockdown!



To be fair, a lot of pandemics have emerged outside China, recently though, they're definitely in the high risk category.

Many argue you shouldn't judge the food supply on cultural norms but there are some major issues, which put China at a heightened risk.

• Bats are a major carrier of viruses, due to them being flying mammals and the adaptations they have made to be able to do this under the constraints of mammal physiology.
• Wet markets mixing different live anim species together. In fact, Sars-2 didn't make the jump straight to us, it jumped to a pangolin first. The poor hygiene of these markets often sees various forms of animal goop (pee, poop, pus, blood, etc...) drip down onto other animals, some of which are different species. Ultimately, you couldn't make a better breeding ground for these types of diseases.

Ultimately, we need to take a hard look at these industries and how we treat animals. Avoiding the moral arguments, simply from a health standpoint, we should be giving them clean places to live with adequate space. The risks presented by factory/battery farming are higher so we should probably take a look at these practices.

China and the rest of southeast Asia should set better standards for storing animals and what to do if multiple live species are in the same room. Obviously it can be done safely, doubt pets at home will be the source of the next global pandemic, so adopting these simple hygiene practices, backed by some strong laws, should reduce risk significantly.

We should also be concerned about our encroachment into wild habitat. A new wave of rainforest destruction is underway in Brazil, to make way for cattle grazing land. Now the cattle will be in contact with a lot of isolated, novel species, before being sent to mix with a load of other cows to slaughter. Doesn't seem like such a great idea.

Edit:
Just read this article, interesting read!
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/28/is-factory-farming-to-blame-for-coronavirus

It is a very thought provoking article. That's not to let the Beijing government off the hook - they should have got a grip on hygeine at these markets after SARS. However, as a species, our addiction to cheap meat is looking increasingly unsustainable for various reasons - land use, carbon emissions, susceptibility to viral mutation etc.

Interms of quarantining new arrivals, the likelihood is that other countries will be experiencing their peaks at different times to us. it makes sense to ensure quarantining at those times when we are on a downward trend.

 

[krus_aragon]

Lots of waffle

There was none in the freezer aisle of Asda last week!

 

[DarloRich]

I notice even the Torygraph are starting to point out how few answer the government are giving on testing. It is on the front page today. They are not strongly anti-the present Government, so it couldn't be clouding their view. They cant be guilty of partisan lefty political opportunism.

 

[thejuggler]

If you want a proper insight into what testing actually means watch a replay of Peston from last night where Peston was well and truly put in his place.

 

[Thomas31]

This morning I’ve just had a call asking me to come back to the NHS as I used to be a lab technician, they really are getting desperate if they’re trying to recruit people who haven’t worked for them in years!

 

[DarloRich]

This morning I’ve just had a call asking me to come back to the NHS as I used to be a lab technician, they really are getting desperate if they’re trying to recruit people who haven’t worked for them in years!

Yes - they are desperate and desperately worried.

 

[R G NOW.]

Its not just in Italy, in France domestic violence has risen sharply in just one week, up by a third. And even here with us a little behind in terms of measures the strain is already starting to show (remembering that some people, myself included started working from home / distancing two weeks ago). I can't say exactly what, but yesterday I saw some rather worrying figures that point to future problems. As people get stuck in more, and as finances are stretched, & as many people may not receive any income for many more weeks, the relative calm that we see at the moment will be pushed more and more. It won't last.

Some, including the experts talk in terms of months of these kinds of measures. What they don't talk about are the social, mental, financial and even physical impacts this is already having on large populations. Put simply in our societies locking down for months is going to cause countless and as yet untold problems, problems that will dwarf the pandemic. Nobody in the decision making process, with perhaps one or two notable leaders, wants to risk jeopardising their contingency plans for the virus by talking down the crisis, for now they are running with the worst case scenario modelling. But behind closed doors they will already be drawing the lines in the sand, the line between mitigating for the virus & mitigating for all the other issues. They will know only too well that there is only so much people will take before social distancing becomes social unrest.

My prediction will be if some semblance of normality is not being restored by the end of this month, things will start to turn ugly.

I am led to believe that the lockdown is to be lifted on the 13th April for ever or up to 4 weeks. Because Boris Johnson said we will be in this for three weeks, so on the 13th I do not see why shops cannot reopen as long as people keep their distance as in supermarkets until the health department give the all clear. When the last item comes, then everything would reopen as if we never had the virus. It is costing business owners money and it needs lifting soon. I am fed up with ready meals, I want a cod and chips.

 

[cactustwirly]

I am led to believe that the lockdown is to be lifted on the 13th April for ever or up to 4 weeks. Because Boris Johnson said we will be in this for three weeks, so on the 13th I do not see why shops cannot reopen as long as people keep their distance as in supermarkets until the health department give the all clear. When the last item comes, then everything would reopen as if we never had the virus. It is costing business owners money and it needs lifting soon. I am fed with ready meals, I want a cod and chips.

Certainly not the 13th, I imagine it will be around May before the lockdown ends, although it depends when the number of cases peaks.

 

[Thomas31]

I am led to believe that the lockdown is to be lifted on the 13th April for ever or up to 4 weeks. Because Boris Johnson said we will be in this for three weeks, so on the 13th I do not see why shops cannot reopen as long as people keep their distance as in supermarkets until the health department give the all clear. When the last item comes, then everything would reopen as if we never had the virus. It is costing business owners money and it needs lifting soon. I am fed up with ready meals, I want a cod and chips.

Boris said the lockdown will be reviewed every 3 weeks, frankly there’s no chance of it being lifted on the 13th. In fact, there might be even more stringent restrictions coming up

 

[R G NOW.]

Certainly not the 13th, I imagine it will be around May before the lockdown ends, although it depends when the number of cases peaks.

Aren't we starting to see it now though after the numbers on the news last night.

 

[Meerkat]

Maybe the ministers are in a difficult position. There is a limit to what they can influence and change so it is quite likely that most problems are within the NHS, whether through pure lack of capacity, lack of management, or incompetence.
If that is the case then what should they say - do you really want them arse covering and blaming minions, even if it was true? What would that achieve? Even if the politicians were as uncaring and evil as some think they know they aren’t going to win a politicians v NHS ‘heroes’ slanging match in the eyes of the public (it would always reduce to a ‘if the NHS had had more resources....’ argument which politicians can’t win as by its nature the NHS could use an almost infinite amount of cash to marginally improve things)

 

[Thomas31]

Aren't we starting to see it now though after the numbers on the news last night.

Being as it can take 14 days for symptoms to show and we only went into lockdown last week I would expect cases to peak next week

 

[CaptainHaddock]

Boris said the lockdown will be reviewed every 3 weeks, frankly there’s no chance of it being lifted on the 13th. In fact, there might be even more stringent restrictions coming up

Not necessarily. Given that the purpose of the lockdown is not to eradicate the virus but to ensure we don't all get it at the same time, I can see one way of controlling infections would be to lift the lockdown for a couple of weeks then reapply it for a couple of weeks then lift it again and so on.

This would also alleviate some of the stress and anxiety issues many people are having. If you know that you only have to ge through another week or two of isolation it gives you hope in a way that an indefinite lockdown doesn't.

 

[edwin_m]

Aren't we starting to see it now though after the numbers on the news last night.

Maybe, but I imagine the numbers will need to be well down before anything is relaxed.

Maybe the ministers are in a difficult position. There is a limit to what they can influence and change so it is quite likely that most problems are within the NHS, whether through pure lack of capacity, lack of management, or incompetence.
If that is the case then what should they say - do you really want them arse covering and blaming minions, even if it was true? What would that achieve? Even if the politicians were as uncaring and evil as some think they know they aren’t going to win a politicians v NHS ‘heroes’ slanging match in the eyes of the public (it would always reduce to a ‘if the NHS had had more resources....’ argument which politicians can’t win as by its nature the NHS could use an almost infinite amount of cash to marginally improve things)

Even if the immediate responsibility rests with NHS officials, most of it can ultimately be laid at the door of Tory governments since 2010

 

[cactustwirly]

Aren't we starting to see it now though after the numbers on the news last night.

It is starting to peak yes, but no one knows when it will plateau. Could be next week, could be the week after.

 

[edwin_m]

Not necessarily. Given that the purpose of the lockdown is not to eradicate the virus but to ensure we don't all get it at the same time, I can see one way of controlling infections would be to lift the lockdown for a couple of weeks then reapply it for a couple of weeks then lift it again and so on.

This would also alleviate some of the stress and anxiety issues many people are having. If you know that you only have to ge through another week or two of isolation it gives you hope in a way that an indefinite lockdown doesn't.

I think of it is a supertanker where you can turn the wheel quickly but the ship takes a long time to come to a new heading - with the added problem that nobody on board is familiar with how it handles. So with rocks on the port side it's wise to keep the helm to starboard for the time being. With more testing to establish the true infection/immunity situation, and better data to inform the models, I think it may end up as you suggest in time. But probably not yet.

 

[OneOffDave]

clean rooms of that nature are not necessarily that hard to come by.

a lot of electronics facilities can be converted to deal with such a protocol.
most defence work is conducted under class 1000/class 10000 clean room conditions

Are those clean rooms wet labs? That's one of the things you need and laminar flow hoods on the benches. With a CL3 lab the ventilation exhaust is the main thing. I suspect mot electronics clean rooms operate under positive pressure to keep dust out, CL3 rooms operate under negative pressure to keep stuff in

 

[Bletchleyite]

I am led to believe that the lockdown is to be lifted on the 13th April for ever or up to 4 weeks. Because Boris Johnson said we will be in this for three weeks, so on the 13th I do not see why shops cannot reopen as long as people keep their distance as in supermarkets until the health department give the all clear. When the last item comes, then everything would reopen as if we never had the virus. It is costing business owners money and it needs lifting soon. I am fed up with ready meals, I want a cod and chips.

He didn't say it would be lifted at any specified point. He said it would be reviewed after 3 weeks. That might mean loosened, tightened or left the same depending on whether its effect has been adequate.

 

[R G NOW.]

I think of it is a supertanker where you can turn the wheel quickly but the ship takes a long time to come to a new heading - with the added problem that nobody on board is familiar with how it handles. So with rocks on the port side it's wise to keep the helm to starboard for the time being. With more testing to establish the true infection/immunity situation, and better data to inform the models, I think it may end up as you suggest in time. But probably not yet.

In my above post I did say lift it forever or maybe 4 weeks at a time. I feel it would be a move to immunise people better.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I am led to believe that the lockdown is to be lifted on the 13th April for ever or up to 4 weeks. Because Boris Johnson said we will be in this for three weeks, so on the 13th I do not see why shops cannot reopen as long as people keep their distance as in supermarkets until the health department give the all clear. When the last item comes, then everything would reopen as if we never had the virus. It is costing business owners money and it needs lifting soon. I am fed up with ready meals, I want a cod and chips.

Why not take the opportunity to learn to cook it yourself?

 

[R G NOW.]

Why not take the opportunity to learn to cook it yourself?

Do not have the facilities to be able to do it sadly only a microwave. Anyway why did chip shops have to close, I do not see that they would be affected by the virus. As people do not crowed round in them. The one I went to had people standing outside, and then called them in one by one in a sensible manner until it shut. After all it supplies food like a supermarket, but fried meals.

 

[Bantamzen]

Do not have the facilities to be able to do it sadly only a microwave. Anyway why did chip shops have to close, I do not see that they would be affected by the virus. As people do not crowed round in them. The one I went to had people standing outside, and then called them in one by one in a sensible manner until it shut. After all it supplies food like a supermarket, but fried meals.

One chip shop near to me has started taking orders online for collection or delivery. And its proving very popular for obvious reasons!

 

[Bletchleyite]

Do not have the facilities to be able to do it sadly only a microwave. Anyway why did chip shops have to close, I do not see that they would be affected by the virus. As people do not crowed round in them. The one I went to had people standing outside, and then called them in one by one in a sensible manner until it shut. After all it supplies food like a supermarket, but fried meals.

They don't have to close, takeaway food is still permitted, all of them that have closed have chosen to close. Often they are quite cramped so it's difficult to stay 2m apart.

 

[Thomas31]

One chip shop near to me has started taking orders online for collection or delivery. And its proving very popular for obvious reasons!

They don't have to close, takeaway food is still permitted, all of them that have closed have chosen to close. Often they are quite cramped so it's difficult to stay 2m apart.

My local one has closed simply because of lack of business, I had a chat with the owner on the night it closed and he only had a single customer, me

 

[Meerkat]

Even if the immediate responsibility rests with NHS officials, most of it can ultimately be laid at the door of Tory governments since 2010

So why are France, Italy, and Spain having similar, if not worse issues?