Coronavirus.

[cactustwirly]

So you’d prefer to watch film of overflowing hospitals on the news, and possible social unrest? I’m not trying to be alarmist but the situation is that serious.

This!
The whole point of all this is to slow the infection rate down, to prevent the hospital's from being overwhelmed

 

[Bantamzen]

So you’d prefer to watch film of overflowing hospitals on the news, and possible social unrest? I’m not trying to be alarmist but the situation is that serious.

No, but the point is that if the model is wrong that scenario won't happen.

 

[cactustwirly]

No, but the point is that if the model is wrong that scenario won't happen.

It happened in China, it's happening in Italy rn.
We have to assume it's right, the virus isn't going to suddenly change!

 

[ainsworth74]

We have to assume it's right, the virus isn't going to suddenly change!

Arguably it very well might! Just that if it does it's unlikely to change in a way that's good news for us...

 

[CaptainHaddock]

China is reporting no new domestic coronavirus cases for the 3rd day in a row.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/1...o-new-local-virus-cases-for-third-day-running

China reported no new local cases of the deadly coronavirus for a third consecutive day Saturday, but confirmed the highest yet increase in infections from abroad.

The rate of infection has been slowing for weeks in China, while the rest of the world steps up measures to try and battle the raging pandemic.

The World Health Organization on Friday praised China's success in controlling the outbreak in the central city of Wuhan, where the virus first emerged late last year.

Given the first case was round about mid November, this suggests the virus will have run its course within 4 months, which gives grounds for optimism that the UK could be pretty much clear of it by mid June.

 

[Bantamzen]

It happened in China, it's happening in Italy rn.
We have to assume it's right, the virus isn't going to suddenly change!

The model forecast a death toll of 250,000 people in the UK, neither China nor Italy have seen anything like those numbers. My point, again, is that the decisions being made by the government are based on that forecast, which is now shown to be potentially flawed. There is a lot a stake in all this, on the one hand there is the welfare of the vulnerable, on the other the longer term welfare of the nation as a whole is in danger.

 

[Mogster]

China is reporting no new domestic coronavirus cases for the 3rd day in a row.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/1...o-new-local-virus-cases-for-third-day-running

Given the first case was round about mid November, this suggests the virus will have run its course within 4 months, which gives grounds for optimism that the UK could be pretty much clear of it by mid June.

Quite frankly I don’t believe a word they say. So over that massive country they have no home grown cases at all... When they ignored the public health surveillance reports and allowed people to circulate and travel unchecked since when the first reports were in November, the whole region was on the move in early February for Chinese New Year...

I do hope it’s the case though and as some scientists have suggested CoV2 will burn its self out within 6 months.

 

[Starmill]

If they are that vulnerable they presumably have some sort of carer or companionship to keep an eye on them?

Not even slightly.

This is better left to be discussed elsewhere though.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It happened in China, it's happening in Italy rn.
We have to assume it's right, the virus isn't going to suddenly change!

Actually viruses do change. And one aspect of that evolution (same as any other kind of evolution) is that the most successful viruses are the ones that make their hosts the least ill, because they get spread a lot better if people don't know they have them. The least successful ones are the ones that kill lots of people, because those people can't be spreading them if they're dead - they can't, unlike bacteria, spread themselves to any extent because they aren't living organisms.

Look at how much more successful the common cold viruses are at spreading than the actual flu, for instance. Most people get several colds a year, most people don't get the flu at all.

Thinking about it, it's quite possible we have had global pandemics of asymptomatic viruses...and nobody has noticed.

 

[cactustwirly]

The model forecast a death toll of 250,000 people in the UK, neither China nor Italy have seen anything like those numbers. My point, again, is that the decisions being made by the government are based on that forecast, which is now shown to be potentially flawed. There is a lot a stake in all this, on the one hand there is the welfare of the vulnerable, on the other the longer term welfare of the nation as a whole is in danger.

That's because China intervened, and put the Hubei province on full lockdown.
The virus hasn't run its course in Italy and obviously they are in lockdown.
Also remember the amount of infections grows exponentially as more people become infected.

 

[Bantamzen]

That's because China intervened, and put the Hubei province on full lockdown.
The virus hasn't run its course in Italy and obviously they are in lockdown.
Also remember the amount of infections grows exponentially as more people become infected.

Again still not my point.

 

[ainsworth74]

Given the first case was round about mid November, this suggests the virus will have run its course within 4 months, which gives grounds for optimism that the UK could be pretty much clear of it by mid June.

Assuming we can actually trust the Chinese figures (and I think that's quite a big assumption) lets wait and see what happens when they begin to lift the lock down shall we?

 

[Meerkat]

If this really is about compliance, then that is even more worrying. Look at the effect it has had so far, people practically fighting in the isles over loo roll. It is the responsibility of the government to give us accurate information and forecasts. If this model is flawed then that should be declared, not used as a weapon to beat back the proles.

It is difficult for the government to pitch the message. At the moment we have too little distancing but already plenty of panic buying. Get too scary with the messaging and the panic buying could explode.

As a slight aside, has anyone ever worked in the DWP building at Peel Park, Blackpool? I did for a bit ages ago, and that looks laid out internally for easy conversion to a hospital or prison.

The other site at Lytham is/was the opposite - it was converted *from* a wartime hospital!

The Aviva (originally Friends Provident) building in Dorking was given permission as long as it was convertible to a hospital. Long thin blocks, big lifts, wide corridors, double doors.

 

[trainophile]

Not even slightly.

This is better left to be discussed elsewhere though.

I admit I know nothing about the condition so shouldn't have made the comments I did. My apologies.

 

[Meerkat]

Before anyone shouts it I am aware this is trivial compared to people dying but.....

India scares me, I really worry about what the virus will do to their poor (how are they going to survive on lockdown - UK Treasury has routes to get money to people here, but how would the Indian government pay and feed its people, let alone look after their health)

But as an aside....Mumbai has been shut for all non-essential businesses.
As this sweeps through the subcontinent presumably a lot of UK offshore processing and IT provision could collapse. Apart from possibly destabilising the banks does anything else important rely on offshore work? Please tell me NHS IT isn’t out there.....

 

[Bletchleyite]

As this sweeps through the subcontinent presumably a lot of UK offshore processing and IT provision could collapse. Apart from possibly destabilising the banks does anything else important rely on offshore work? Please tell me NHS IT isn’t out there.....

There isn't one single "NHS IT" just as the NHS isn't one single organisation, so while there may be minor disruption there isn't scope for it all to collapse in that way.

 

[3rd rail land]

There isn't one single "NHS IT" just as the NHS isn't one single organisation, so while there may be minor disruption there isn't scope for it all to collapse in that way.

Each NHS trust manages their own IT. I am not aware any of it is overseas but I could well be wrong. A lot of the work can be done remotely but of course people such as desktop engineers will probably need to go onto the wards to sort IT issues.

 

[Meerkat]

Good to hear it’s not it shouldn’t affect the NHS too much.
Must be a concern for many businesses with so much relying on home working.
The last two companies I worked for in Finance, including a major bank, had most IT run out of India together with much of the transaction processing being in the subcontinent.

 

[Howardh]

Looking at the graph in the Guardian, seems that there's been a levelling off of people catching the virus these last three days (UK), around 700/day. Of course we have no idea how many have it and show no symptoms.

 

[Howardh]

This might well seem a stupid question and answered elsewhere; if we could isolate those at risk, and the virus naturally spread around the rest of us and we had mild to severe (but not fatal) symptoms, would we become immune to it and the virus naturally eradicate itself as it loses hosts? Or could it just become stronger and be a danger to even the most healthy?

 

[DarloRich]

It's a common misconception rather than a trait.


And hairdressers etc. have some element of societal functioning.




No-one did say it was going to be easy for anyone. However, the idea that using stereotypes (which I at one point shared before actually meeting anyone with ASDs) doesn't actually help. ASD is not one condition it is a spectrum of conditions. In this spectrum, there are many different behaviours exhibited by different conditions. Thus, one ASD-diagnosed individual will have different behaviour to that of another. One may be able to cope not too differently to the rest of us while another might have serious difficulties. Ultimately, it is not in the public interest to coop people up unnecessarily. Keeping distance and not frequenting busy places is the most important. Going into high-density locations is the most dangerous, but if you are staying 2m away from others at all times there isn't a problem, as the French government has shown.

Hard or not you have to stay in the house. It isnt going to be easy for any of us. There isnt time to consider every individual circumstance though.

The rules are clear. Follow them. There are too many here and in the real world who think they are a special case, know best or dont have to bother. You do. We all do so do it. Now.

 

[Mogster]

Before anyone shouts it I am aware this is trivial compared to people dying but.....

India scares me, I really worry about what the virus will do to their poor (how are they going to survive on lockdown - UK Treasury has routes to get money to people here, but how would the Indian government pay and feed its people, let alone look after their health)

But as an aside....Mumbai has been shut for all non-essential businesses.
As this sweeps through the subcontinent presumably a lot of UK offshore processing and IT provision could collapse. Apart from possibly destabilising the banks does anything else important rely on offshore work? Please tell me NHS IT isn’t out there.....

My employer is arms length NHS, our servers are UK based thankfully. Everyone else, who knows???

Most of India has year round heat and AC is less common than in the US. Hopefully those factors will restrict the likelihood of local transmission. At worst I’d imagine spread through India will be much slower.

 

[thejuggler]

I don't think hanging the self employed out to dry can be a long term strategy for a Party that for the last 40 years have encouraged everyone to run their own business.

Current line is it is too difficult to support self employed, that says a lot about our tax and social welfare system. It shouldn't be difficult, we have made it that way.

A Norwegian freelance ski instructor was on radio yesterday, obviously he has no work. He wasn't concerned. He was just about to fill in a form which will pay him 70% of his earnings from next week. As he said he has paid in, they have records showing his contribution record and they will now pay out.

Universal Basic Income looks like the only solution to the difficulty.

 

[507021]

Probably not, but they will have to make the change.
I hate the idea of isolation myself, but it is necessary

Well I know we'll have to, I'm just saying it's not going to be an easy transition.

 

[Bantamzen]

Hard or not you have to stay in the house. It isnt going to be easy for any of us. There isnt time to consider every individual circumstance though.

The rules are clear. Follow them. There are too many here and in the real world who think they are a special case, know best or dont have to bother. You do. We all do so do it. Now.

Sorry, did I stroke out for a minute there? Are we in total lock-down? Because at the last report, I was rather under the impression we could still step outside our doors, so long as we didn't gather in groups in close proximity?

 

[cactustwirly]

This might well seem a stupid question and answered elsewhere; if we could isolate those at risk, and the virus naturally spread around the rest of us and we had mild to severe (but not fatal) symptoms, would we become immune to it and the virus naturally eradicate itself as it loses hosts? Or could it just become stronger and be a danger to even the most healthy?

Once someone has had it, they will then become immune to it, unless of course it mutates

 

[DarloRich]

Sorry, did I stroke out for a minute there? Are we in total lock-down? Because at the last report, I was rather under the impression we could still step outside our doors, so long as we didn't gather in groups in close proximity?

It is clear you are one of the people who know best. Just do what you are told in order to help everyone. The rules are clear. Follow them.

 

[bussnapperwm]

It is clear you are one of the people who know best. Just do what you are told in order to help everyone. The rules are clear. Follow them.

And it's no wonder with statements like that people who parrot them would be staunch supporters of tin pot dictators.

We're not in lockdown, we haven't got someone like Chairman Mao or Adolf Hitler in charge. There is a such thing of freedom of speech and human rights.

 

[DarloRich]

And it's no wonder with statements like that people who parrot them would be staunch supporters of tin pot dictators.

We're not in lockdown, we haven't got someone like Chairman Mao or Adolf Hitler in charge. There is a such thing of freedom of speech and human rights.

Do try to be rational. Your post us preposterous

 

[Domh245]

It is clear you are one of the people who know best. Just do what you are told in order to help everyone. The rules are clear. Follow them.

Yes, the rules are clear. You only need to stay home and self-isolate if anyone in the household is showing symptoms. For everyone else the rules are simply:

1. Avoid contact with someone who is displaying symptoms of coronavirus (COVID-19). These symptoms include high temperature and/or new and continuous cough
2. Avoid non-essential use of public transport when possible
3. Work from home, where possible. Your employer should support you to do this. Please refer to employer guidance for more information
4. Avoid large and small gatherings in public spaces, noting that pubs, restaurants, leisure centres and similar venues are currently shut as infections spread easily in closed spaces where people gather together.
5. Avoid gatherings with friends and family. Keep in touch using remote technology such as phone, internet, and social media
6. Use telephone or online services to contact your GP or other essential services

source

I don't see the line that says "stay in the house"