Coronavirus.

[hooverboy]

A solution is needed inside a month. Burying the nation’s heads in the sand in our back gardens is not going to solve this. “The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few - or the one.”

burying our heads in our back gardens might well afford us a couple of months extra time,if things do get in short supply.
seeds and compost are still plentiful!

I raided aldi's yesterday for a load of them.
hardly touched pallets of compost for 99p a bag, veggie seeds ranging from 25p to £2.
if you have kids off school,this is the perfect planting season, introduce them back to nature.Ideal way of getting your kids to eat their greens if they've been responsible for their upkeep.

not much good if you live in a pokey flat,but for those with the luxury of a garden to dig up,it's worth considering

 

[Antman]

Johnson has done 4 press conferences and has clearly had enough of the questions so now wants to avoid scrutiny by hiding away and doing his press remotely.

The man is a coward hiding from scrutiny and it isnt good enough. We cant hide, people in key services csnt hide. Neither should he.

This really isn't the time or place for cheap political point scoring, whatever your fixation is with the PM this really is getting boring.

 

[hooverboy]

This really isn't the time or place for cheap political point scoring, whatever your fixation is with the PM this really is getting boring.

I agree.

down on the street it's pretty chaotic at the moment.
people have gone into survival mode, the me,me,me stuff is very primal, but very understandable.When you threaten a persons livelihood/existence people will fight back,end of.niceness, courtesy and community spirit will go out of the window until such time as people learn to barter skills for mutual benefit...at the moment it's each to their own...might take 6 months or a year of real hardship until dunkirk spirit kicks in

courtesy of media hype, the primitive instincts are in the process of taking over.
we have not yet seen the crescendo, it's likely to get worse over the next few weeks.

if you have the means to endure weeks 2-6 then you should be in with a chance of making it through this and come out the other side.
(what i'm saying in effect is government says prep for 2 weeks....make that 2 months)

 

[nlogax]

but what do you think is likely to happen on week 2 of lockdown when people who haven't prepped are running out of food?

Er.. people are still going to go outside and go for walks / runs.

 

[DarloRich]

This really isn't the time or place for cheap political point scoring, whatever your fixation is with the PM this really is getting boring.

accurate though.

We are going though the biggest public health emergency in a generation and we have Billy Bunter as leader. Why does that not worry people? We need sober, sensible leadership to see us through. Instead we have an overgrown schoolboy who thinks silly hand gestures and quips are the way through this. That concerns me. Compare Johnson with his much more sober advisers. They know how to behave. Why doesn't he?

What would be the sense in putting the PM in danger? Whatever you think of him, a change of power is not needed now.

that is a shame - we might get an decent leader.

BTW Johnson is happy to put others in danger and expects them to turn in day after day for a lot less money than he takes home. He is an essential worker and part of his role is standing up on TV and setting out where we are and where we are going AND being challenged on that AND being accountable to us for decisions that are made.

I would like him to do that in a sober, mature "statesman like" manner but it seems I am in minority. I don't think that is too much to ask. You and others clearly disagree

 

[thejuggler]

The keyworker list given is not official Government guidance, it is a guess and is the same as was published on various news websites as soon as the statement was released.

Nursery was irresponsible to send the info out.

A friend is an Environmental Health Officer and has had no formal notification that she is a keyworker.

4 hours ago Unions were still none the wiser.

2 hours ago.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...nd-school-if-one-parent-classed-as-key-worker
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...nd-school-if-one-parent-classed-as-key-worker
Children

are expected to continue to attend school from Monday if they have one parent classified by the government as a key worker. Amid the first nationwide school closure in modern British history, Downing Street has said it wants to keep parents in work who are doing vital jobs – from NHS staff to social workers and delivery drivers – to support crucial sectors that ensure the country continues to function amid the coronavirus pandemic.

 

[Tetchytyke]

This really isn't the time or place for cheap political point scoring

Except it is. The economy is tanking, people are losing their jobs, people are panicking so much they seriously think other people should be locked up for daring to have a pint in a pub. We need leadership. We need statesmanship. Instead we have Billy Bunter who, when the going gets tough, goes into hiding. A truly pathetic man. The only joy for me is seeing people who were adoring him a few months ago turning on him.

I'm not buying this "ooh we've got to keep him safe" by hiding online and pre-selecting questions/questioners. The Queen Mum stayed in Buck House during the Blitz, and this clown won't face a few journalists in a room. Pathetic.

 

[DarloRich]

An interesting article from Huff Post on Johnson and his press conference behaviour Try to read it before dismissing it as evil bitter hacks picking on poor Boris

https://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/...6f5b7c54148b2/?guf=&__twitter_impression=true

The jocular tone of sending a deadly virus ‘packing’ (just imagine if he’d used that phrase about AIDS in the 1980s?) was one thing. But what immediately rang alarm bells was that repeated use of the word ‘I’. Was the PM suddenly qualified to make this huge assessment on his own? Why weren’t the chief medical officer and chief scientific adviser the ones to make such a major announcement?

Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance, having been deferred to in previous press conferences, were suddenly bit players. They didn’t even get the chance to expand on the timeline assessment before Johnson, with that flash of impatience at the whole event, then invited questions.

I am on my phone so dont know how to quote. Sorry.

 

[JamesT]

The keyworker list given is not official Government guidance, it is a guess and is the same as was published on various news websites as soon as the statement was released.

Nursery was irresponsible to send the info out.

A friend is an Environmental Health Officer and has had no formal notification that she is a keyworker.

4 hours ago Unions were still none the wiser.

2 hours ago.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...nd-school-if-one-parent-classed-as-key-worker

The list is now published - https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...horities-on-maintaining-educational-provision

Health and social care
This includes but is not limited to doctors, nurses, midwives, paramedics, social workers, care workers, and other frontline health and social care staff including volunteers; the support and specialist staff required to maintain the UK’s health and social care sector; those working as part of the health and social care supply chain, including producers and distributers of medicines and medical and personal protective equipment.

Education and childcare
This includes nursery and teaching staff, social workers and those specialist education professionals who must remain active during the COVID-19 response to deliver this approach.

Key public services
This includes those essential to the running of the justice system, religious staff, charities and workers delivering key frontline services, those responsible for the management of the deceased, and journalists and broadcasters who are providing public service broadcasting.

Local and national government
This only includes those administrative occupations essential to the effective delivery of the COVID-19 response or delivering essential public services such as the payment of benefits, including in government agencies and arms length bodies.

Food and other necessary goods
This includes those involved in food production, processing, distribution, sale and delivery as well as those essential to the provision of other key goods (for example hygienic and veterinary medicines).

Public safety and national security
This includes police and support staff, Ministry of Defence civilians, contractor and armed forces personnel (those critical to the delivery of key defence and national security outputs and essential to the response to the COVID-19 pandemic), fire and rescue service employees (including support staff), National Crime Agency staff, those maintaining border security, prison and probation staff and other national security roles, including those overseas.

Transport
This includes those who will keep the air, water, road and rail passenger and freight transport modes operating during the COVID-19 response, including those working on transport systems through which supply chains pass.

Utilities, communication and financial services
This includes staff needed for essential financial services provision (including but not limited to workers in banks, building societies and financial market infrastructure), the oil, gas, electricity and water sectors (including sewerage), information technology and data infrastructure sector and primary industry supplies to continue during the COVID-19 response, as well as key staff working in the civil nuclear, chemicals, telecommunications (including but not limited to network operations, field engineering, call centre staff, IT and data infrastructure, 999 and 111 critical services), postal services and delivery, payments providers and waste disposal sectors.

 

[Peter Kelford]

Just because another country hasn't yet had a food shortage doesn't mean that the supply chain here can withstand significant outbreaks of illness as the peak approaches.

Of course, and we need to remember that other countries are often net producers of food or at least have some degree of self-sufficiency.

Most businesses affected by COVID-19 have announced closures of 4-6 weeks. That alone will cause abject misery to tens or even hundreds of thousands who work in these firms who lose their livelihood.

Twelve weeks, let alone more, is likely tonrepresent a disaster of epic proportions. It could lead to social deprivation, untold misery for millions, civil unrest and a substantial increase in suicides.

A solution is needed inside a month. Burying the nation’s heads in the sand in our back gardens is not going to solve this. “The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few - or the one.”

Italy and China's mass quarantines or semi-quarantines can 'turn the tide' in about 2 weeks give or take from what we can see. At least it gives a morale boost if nothing else as China is still in semi-lockdown for the time being.

nobody knows if this supposed vaccine works.
the biologists know this thing is a cousin of SARS,and "should" behave in similar fashion(with any luck)

they have had research on that since that outbreak.

what we don't know is how this thing will mutate.

And America is doing its best to say the opposite. CV in Trumpspeak stands for 'China Virus'.

 

[edwin_m]

accurate though.

We are going though the biggest public health emergency in a generation and we have Billy Bunter as leader. Why does that not worry people? We need sober, sensible leadership to see us through. Instead we have an overgrown schoolboy who thinks silly hand gestures and quips are the way through this. That concerns me. Compare Johnson with his much more sober advisers. They know how to behave. Why doesn't he?



that is a shame - we might get an decent leader.

BTW Johnson is happy to put others in danger and expects them to turn in day after day for a lot less money than he takes home. He is an essential worker and part of his role is standing up on TV and setting out where we are and where we are going AND being challenged on that AND being accountable to us for decisions that are made.

I would like him to do that in a sober, mature "statesman like" manner but it seems I am in minority. I don't think that is too much to ask. You and others clearly disagree

While I share your disdain for Boris I don't think now is the time to call for his removal. At least he has some sort of brainpower and ought to have realized that he needs to get this right for his own sake if nothing else. And I don't see anyone else in the Cabinet who would do any better, with most of the more competent and sensible Tories having been chucked out over the past year.

 

[Bletchleyite]

While I share your disdain for Boris I don't think now is the time to call for his removal. At least he has some sort of brainpower and ought to have realized that he needs to get this right for his own sake if nothing else. And I don't see anyone else in the Cabinet who would do any better, with most of the more competent and sensible Tories having been chucked out over the past year.

I completely agree. Let's judge him on the whole thing at the end (and based on decent human standards, not silly expectations). Now is not the time for party politics.

It's clear, in any case, that the whole thing is being driven by the CMO and his scientists.

 

[DarloRich]

While I share your disdain for Boris I don't think now is the time to call for his removal. At least he has some sort of brainpower and ought to have realized that he needs to get this right for his own sake if nothing else. And I don't see anyone else in the Cabinet who would do any better, with most of the more competent and sensible Tories having been chucked out over the past year.

To be clear: I am absolutely NOT calling for the PM to replaced. That would be stupid. What I am calling for is for the PM to act like a sober, mature, sensible and credible person at a time of national crisis and provide, clear, unambiguous instruction, advice and reassurance as required.

As for this "brainpower" - it must be well hidden because he has no idea how to behave!

It's clear, in any case, that the whole thing is being driven by the CMO and his scientists.

He is the front man. He needs to behave appropriately. He is acting like a silly schoolboy and thinks this is a jolly jape. It isnt. People are dying. He told us this was the greatest public health crisis in a generation and that our love ones will die before there time. That is serious. He isnt being.

it isnt party politics - it is reality.

silly expectations

So it is a silly expectation to expect the PM to behave at a time of national crisis as a sober, sensible statesman is it? Got you. Christ we live in strange times.

People are STILL going to pubs in London. The same London with a massive and growing virus problem. His flippant attitude is driving that. Why are people not concerned by this?

 

[Mogster]

The Guardian ran an article a few days ago, they seemed to have been fishing for info about how Boris was behaving at the daily meetings.

The expert attendees they asked, not named, seemed happy with Boris, saying he would listen and ask sensible questions and seemed to genuinely want to understand the concepts. After all he’s not a scientist. They said he was happy to defer to medics and scientists and seemed willing to take their advice. They were quite impressed with him and surprised tbh.

 

[DarloRich]

The expert attendees they asked, not named, seemed happy with Boris, saying he would listen and ask sensible questions and seemed to genuinely want to understand the concepts. After all he’s not a scientist. They said he was happy to defer to medics and scientists and seemed willing to take their advice. They were quite impressed with him and surprised tbh.

I have no question he is following the advice given by experts. My concern is his presentation persona. I do not think it is appropriate considering the situation. All I want him to do is act like a serious PM considering the gravity of the situation. My view is that he does not do that in his public statements. I don't think that is something outlandish.

You know you are in a bad place when Jeremy "the massive" Hunt looks statesman like and sensible!

PS Further I feel his lack of gravitas and sober presentation is causing the advice not to hit home, especially in London. This is not a game. People are dying.

 

[thejuggler]

A lot can change in a few days.

Yesterday's performance has not gone down well with media at all.

Very short, a 12 week period given as a 'fact' with no scientific input from the experts alongside to back up the claim and during questions completely rowed back on what the 12 week claim actually meant.

I expect the Chancellor to give a far more solid performance later today.

 

[Mogster]

A lot can change in a few days.

Yesterday's performance has not gone down well with media at all.

Very short, a 12 week period given as a 'fact' with no scientific input from the experts alongside to back up the claim and during questions completely rowed back on what the 12 week claim actually meant.

I expect the Chancellor to give a far more solid performance later today.

Boris does like to set specific dates for things. It always gives me a furrowed brow, like all Pacers being gone by February...

But then people keep demanding specifics.

 

[DarloRich]

But then people keep demanding specifics.

Specifics: It will take as long as it takes. We hope that in 12 weeks we might have this under control but that will only happen IF everyone follows the advice we have given them. However, I cannot stand here today and give you a definitive end date. This will be a long fight and it will need us ALL to work together to beat this virus. Perhaps the chief Scientific advisor might like to expand on this point...........

That's how you deal with that question.

 

[AlistairCowell]

I had read “we can turn the tide in 12 weeks” BBC News article yesterday and there is a analysis column by James Gallagher saying that even if we turn the tide in 12 weeks and new cases starts to decline, we would be still be far from the end.

He also said it is clear that shutting down large parts of society is not sustainable in the long term.

I think it’s time everyone in the UK works together and follow the advice if we want to turn the tide sooner.

 

[Mogster]

He’s not saying it will be over in 12 weeks but that’s what people seem to be reading into the statement.

We’ll see what happens. I seriously think that treatment and learning to live with this will be the way forward in the short term. The major problem is the possible pressure on health services, if they are overwhelmed people will start to die because they can’t access routine treatment and the results may be worse than direct results of CoV2.

We need to find ways of keeping the economy turning also. We can’t have people turtled in their houses for months on end.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I was amused to note the use of the phrase "get this done"

 

[krus_aragon]

I had read “we can turn the tide in 12 weeks” BBC News article yesterday and there is a analysis column by James Gallagher saying that even if we turn the tide in 12 weeks and new cases starts to decline, we would be still be far from the end.

For comparison (using figures collated on Wikipedia), China topped 10,000 ongoing cases (excluding recoveries or deaths) around January 30th, peaked at 60,000 in mid-February, and was back below 10,000 cases by March 20th, seven weeks later. They're not out of the woods yet, but they're past the crisis stage.

 

[Mathew S]

Sorry but that’s your own fault for not leaving early enough. It is not Coronavirus related and could have happened any normal day.


The vulnerable need to take steps to protect themselves too, and the less-vulnerable need to avoid contact with the vulnerable and those who have symptoms. But the whole country cannot just be allowed to grind to a halt through everyone isolating. It’s not tenable and unless we are sure the virus will go away (and I don’t believe that has been accepted) then all isolation is doing is the problem down the line to the point when people do go out again.

What needs to happen is that the fit and those in low risk categories need allowed to get on with their lives which will ensure the country remains economically viable. While doing that they need take sensible precautions especially with hygiene and social distancing where appropriate (especially in terms of contact with vulnerable groups), and isolate if they get symptoms.

The nonsense suggesting those who are well should not go out, should not go into a pub for a drink, should not get onto a bus or a train, is going to damage far more people’s lives in the long term.

It. Is. Not. Nonsense.

I can't say this enough, but read the MRC/Imperial modelling if you don't believe me. If we don't reduce OVERALL social interaction - this isn't just about the vulnerable and sick, it's about healthy people not spreading the virus - more people WILL die. Not might, not this is what could happen, not scaremongering: actual real people will die because of individuals being selfish.

Yes, we all have to be responsible, exercise good hygeine, and work especially hard to protect the elderly and more vulnerable; but that alone simply is not enough.

Again: read the modelling. It's not difficult to understand, even if it's rather chilling: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/.

I'm not going to quote the entire report here because it's too long, but to abide by forum rules, here's the key paragraphs from the discussion:

Given the most systematic surveillance occurs in the hospital context, the typical delay from infection to hospitalisation means there is a 2- to 3-week lag between interventions being introduced and the impact being seen in hospitalised case numbers, depending on whether all hospital admissions are tested or only those entering critical care units. In the GB context, this means acting before COVID-19 admissions to ICUs exceed 200 per week.
Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over. In the most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly), the surge limits for both general ward and ICU beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical care requirements that we examined. In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US.
In the UK, this conclusion has only been reached in the last few days, with the refinement of estimates of likely ICU demand due to COVID-19 based on experience in Italy and the UK (previous planning estimates assumed half the demand now estimated) and with the NHS providing increasing certainty around the limits of hospital surge capacity.
We therefore conclude that epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time.

 

[Mathew S]

Yes I totally get it. Some people have died. Some more people are going to die. A massive majority are not going to die, even if they do not self-isolate. We need to do what is best for the continued long term viability of the country, not adopt short term policies that end up doing more long term harm than good. I think the problem is that you don’t get it - you are being dragged along by politicians who are more bothered about their own short term interests than the long term viability of the entire nation. This is not going to go away. When those who isolate re-emerge they will not be immune. The country cannot isolate indefinitely. There are sensible precautions that can and should be taken but the level of isolation being suggested by some is merely moving the problem to the right.

Are you, honestly, suggesting that 250,000 deaths - which is approximately what the modelling predicts would happen as a result of the policy you're advocating here - is a desirable outcome? Let alone 'what is best for the continued long term viability of the country'? There is no good solution here, only the least worst option. The best of the science says that following the policies that the government now has in place as long as everyone sticks to them could reduce the number of deaths by as many as 200,000. I hate Boris and the Tories as much as anyone, probably more, but on this they are doing precisely what the science indicates is right, based on what has happened elsewhere. It's painful, but to quote the report I linked to in my last post it is the 'only viable strategy'.

 

[DarloRich]

It. Is. Not. Nonsense.

I can't say this enough, but read the MRC/Imperial modelling if you don't believe me. If we don't reduce OVERALL social interaction - this isn't just about the vulnerable and sick, it's about healthy people not spreading teh virus - more people WILL die. Not might, not this is what could happen, not scaremongering: actual real people will die because of individuals being selfish.

but on this they are doing precisely what the science indicates is right, based on what has happened elsewhere. It's painful, but to quote the report I linked to in my last post it is the 'only viable strategy'.

You are wasting your time. There are a lot of selfish people out there who simply don't care.

 

[edwin_m]

For comparison (using figures collated on Wikipedia), China topped 10,000 ongoing cases (excluding recoveries or deaths) around January 30th, peaked at 60,000 in mid-February, and was back below 10,000 cases by March 20th, seven weeks later. They're not out of the woods yet, but they're past the crisis stage.

I don't think we can say that until we see what happens when their restrictions are relaxed. I think we might be entering a period of stop-go, when activity is restricted to bring the death rate back down, and then more is allowed until it starts rising again.

 

[krus_aragon]

I don't think we can say that until we see what happens when their restrictions are relaxed. I think we might be entering a period of stop-go, when activity is restricted to bring the death rate back down, and then more is allowed until it starts rising again.

The point I'm trying to make is that they've gotten back down to the point where they can consider relaxing some restrictions, because their current infection rate is manageable again.

 

[Mathew S]

You are wasting your time. There are a lot of selfish people out there who simply don't care.

Sad, but true.

The point I'm trying to make is that they've gotten back down to the point where they can consider relaxing some restrictions, because their current infection rate is manageable again.

Yes, I do think this is likely to be what we see happening. Restrictions on the scale needed for supression (e.g. social isolation, etc.) aren't sustainable. So, it'll be an on again/off again. I think, and there are others out there who will know this better than I do, that the trigger for adding/removing measures is likely to be the level of occupancy of critical care hospital beds, because that's the key constraint in most countries. But yes, until there's an effective vaccine, produced in enough quantity to reach >70% of the population, on again/off again restrictions are going to be a fact of life.

 

[DarloRich]

the level of occupancy of critical care hospital beds, because that's the key constraint in most countries.

Correct - the key dependencies are availability and occupancy of critical care beds. We cant breach that number. That is what all of this is about. It is really simple: Want your Granny to live? Stop in and stop away. Simple.

 

[SHD]

How patronising of you, Mathew S. How patronising to state facts and point people towards expert opinions.