Coronavirus.

[Bletchleyite]

Even if the peak lasts 12 weeks, the problem remains of what then? Because as soon as you release the social distancing measures and people start mixing again, the virus starts spreading again, and you get another peak. And that process repeats over, and over, and over, and over until you build up some level of community immunity whether that's naturally as more and more people are infected, or by way of a vaccine.

This is going to take much, much longer than 12 weeks to come to any kind of conclusion. Much longer.

18 months seems to be being suggested, FWIW.

 

[Meerkat]

Oh not this crap again

"Frugal" people like you bought a house when it was 3 times one earners wage, it's now 8. If back in 2000 I had started saving £5 per work day, I would only now have enough for a 5% deposit on a house in London.

Your generation spanked money on going out and cigarettes.

wrong assumptions, I am post boomer, pre millenial. I cut my cloth, got a small home so not max mortgaged, small car, low expenditure.
It is you turning this into an age group thing. There are plenty of frugal millenials but plenty complaining whilst spanking money. Who is ‘buying’ all those PCP small Mercedes?

Because as soon as you release the social distancing measures and people start mixing again, the virus starts spreading again

Social distancing and a bit of herd immunity will reduce the threat, and you need massive testing resources before relaxing suppression significantly.

 

[miami]

18 months seems to be being suggested, FWIW.

Yes, at least until the end of the 2020/2021 flu season (which should be less problematic as many people who are susceptible will be dead and those who aren't will be isolated). Hopefully a workable vaccine that's not too risky will be available from about january onwards.

 

[yorkie]

Just a reminder to please be polite.

If anyone sees anything that causes concern and may be a breach of the forum rules please just report it and don't reply to it. Thanks

 

[Mathew S]

18 months seems to be being suggested, FWIW.

Yeah, that's what the modelling seems to be saying, though with the possibility that it *may* be possible to reduce some of the isolation measures for potentially up to one-third of that time (not, I'm imagining, all in one lump). Realistically, this is going to be a very, very long haul indeed.

Social distancing and a bit of herd immunity will reduce the threat, and you need massive testing resources before relaxing suppression significantly.

PHE are working on a antibody test. That would be better than the current PCR test since it would detect people who have had the infection, rather than just those who are currently harbouring active virus. I don't know what progress they're making on that, but I'm sure they're working flat out. It's not new technology (similar to ELISA, which has been around since the early 1970s) however developing it to a point where there's confidence in the results is going to take a while.

 

[matt_world2004]

Tube and bus networks to reduce to a Sunday service over the next couple of days

https://news.sky.com/video/coronavi...on-to-reduce-service-during-outbreak-11958840

Video only so can't quote

 

[Belperpete]

PHE are working on a antibody test. That would be better than the current PCR test since it would detect people who have had the infection, rather than just those who are currently harbouring active virus. I don't know what progress they're making on that, but I'm sure they're working flat out. It's not new technology (similar to ELISA, which has been around since the early 1970s) however developing it to a point where there's confidence in the results is going to take a while.

What is the point in testing to find people who have had the infection? Surely the critical thing is to find those who are currently infectious. Those who have had the infection, and are no longer infectious, are no longer a risk to other people.

 

[Mogster]

Even if the peak lasts 12 weeks, the problem remains of what then? Because as soon as you release the social distancing measures and people start mixing again, the virus starts spreading again, and you get another peak. And that process repeats over, and over, and over, and over until you build up some level of community immunity whether that's naturally as more and more people are infected, or by way of a vaccine.

This is going to take much, much longer than 12 weeks to come to any kind of conclusion. Much longer.

I feel the WHO and government are rightly preparing us for the absolute worst case scenario.

Every week that passes we gain more information about the virus. People are also being exposed, recovering and gaining useful immunity, although we don’t know quite how effective it is yet long term. Restrictions may be eased or lifted when we have more understanding of how the virus behaves. After all we have other similar virus types circulating and causing 1000s of deaths mostly in vulnerable groups, it’s manageable because we understand them. There are also trials underway testing current antiviral medication as treatments against the CoV2 virus, it seems likely at least some of those trials will bear fruit. A vaccine is probably a long way off, years, as we have no vaccine for this virus group in use currently and it would have to be tested as safe and accepted by healthcare systems worldwide. If you start pumping dubious vaccines into healthy people worldwide and they cause problems the anti-vax brigade would go totally potty...

The next big thing to watch is how the virus performs in N Hemisphere summer. Assumptions are being made but we will have real data in the next few months.

 

[Bletchleyite]

What is the point in testing to find people who have had the infection? Surely the critical thing is to find those who are currently infectious. Those who have had the infection, and are no longer infectious, are no longer a risk to other people.

Because if it does mean you can't get it twice, then those people are going to be very useful indeed.

 

[Mogster]

What is the point in testing to find people who have had the infection? Surely the critical thing is to find those who are currently infectious. Those who have had the infection, and are no longer infectious, are no longer a risk to other people.

You really need alternative tests to confirm your initial screening results. Especially if your primary screening test is prone to false positives, cross reacts with other similar virus’s etc. Antibody tests are quicker, cheaper and much easier to perform than PCR RNA tests also.

Generally yes, viral RNA is the indication that someone is infectious. Antibody alone indicates prior exposure.

 

[Mathew S]

What is the point in testing to find people who have had the infection? Surely the critical thing is to find those who are currently infectious. Those who have had the infection, and are no longer infectious, are no longer a risk to other people.

Firstly, for the reason @Bletchleyite gave - particularly for healthcare and other essential workers, if they've had it and are immune, that's going to be important.
Secondly, because right now we simply do not know the true extent of the infection and that's something that is going to be vital to understand. It sounds like many, perhaps most, people who get this disease either won't be aware of it at all, or will have symptoms so minor they're indistinguishable from other viral respiritory tract infections. An antibody test is just about the only way we can be sure what is actually happening, which is a necessary piece of information to inform decision making.

 

[Mathew S]

I feel the WHO and government are rightly preparing us for the absolute worst case scenario.

Every week that passes we gain more information about the virus. People are also being exposed, recovering and gaining useful immunity, although we don’t know quite how effective it is yet long term. Restrictions may be eased or lifted when we have more understanding of how the virus behaves. After all we have other similar virus types circulating and causing 1000s of deaths mostly in vulnerable groups, it’s manageable because we understand them. There are also trials underway testing current antiviral medication as treatments against the CoV2 virus, it seems likely at least some of those trials will bear fruit. A vaccine is probably a long way off, years, as we have no vaccine for this virus group in use currently and it would have to be tested as safe and accepted by healthcare systems worldwide. If you start pumping dubious vaccines into healthy people worldwide and they cause problems the anti-vax brigade would go totally potty...

The next big thing to watch is how the virus performs in N Hemisphere summer. Assumptions are being made but we will have real data in the next few months.

Agreed. This is one of those rare situations where I hope that the science is wrong (even though I don't think it is).

 

[Mogster]

Agreed. This is one of those rare situations where I hope that the science is wrong (even though I don't think it is).

I don’t think the science is wrong necessarily, we just lack accurate data currently and have to assume the absolute worst for now.

 

[Belperpete]

Secondly, because right now we simply do not know the true extent of the infection and that's something that is going to be vital to understand. It sounds like many, perhaps most, people who get this disease either won't be aware of it at all, or will have symptoms so minor they're indistinguishable from other viral respiritory tract infections. An antibody test is just about the only way we can be sure what is actually happening, which is a necessary piece of information to inform decision making.

But to know the true extent of the infection, and how it is spreading, that means you have got to repeatedly test the majority of the population. We simply don't have the resources for that kind of thing at the best of times, let alone at a time when all our medical staff are going to be overloaded dealing with the ill.

 

[Meerkat]

But to know the true extent of the infection, and how it is spreading, that means you have got to repeatedly test the majority of the population. We simply don't have the resources for that kind of thing at the best of times, let alone at a time when all our medical staff are going to be overloaded dealing with the ill.

You can sample test, and refine targeting based on the results.
Testers don’t have to be medics, just basic training.

 

[Mathew S]

But to know the true extent of the infection, and how it is spreading, that means you have got to repeatedly test the majority of the population. We simply don't have the resources for that kind of thing at the best of times, let alone at a time when all our medical staff are going to be overloaded dealing with the ill.

The two things to remember are:
1) ELISA tests are as simple as the blood sugar tests diabetics do (finger pricks); pharmacists could do them, for example, as could pretty much anyone else;
2) you only need test a representative sample, and extrapolate from there; a few tens of thousands of tests (which sounds a lot but actually isn't) would be more than ample.

 

[edwin_m]

The two things to remember are:
1) ELISA tests are as simple as the blood sugar tests diabetics do (finger pricks); pharmacists could do them, for example, as could pretty much anyone else;
2) you only need test a representative sample, and extrapolate from there; a few tens of thousands of tests (which sounds a lot but actually isn't) would be more than ample.

But it would be very handy for keeping the country going if this sort of test could be made widely available in a few months time, so people could know if they were safe to resume their normal lives.

 

[Mogster]

It all depends how useful the serology for this virus is. If you’re going to pick up any old coranovirus for a proportion of the time then it’s hardly worth doing. I’ve no idea how useful serology is for these virus’s.

S Korea are mass screening by swabbing and PCR for RNA which maybe indicates something. Although their primary purpose is to identify infectious individuals for quarantine. PCR takes a few hours and requires expensive, complex equipment to automate though.

 

[Antman]

I think common sense applies. As an over-70 I am going to keep walking and maybe even paint our bedroom, which I have been promising to do for the past 5 years! Keep busy!!

My neighbour is in his 80s and he's out playing bowls today.

 

[Antman]

This is why the Government has said that even if you're self isolating due to family having it (except if you have it) you can still go out for a walk provided you stay away from others. Walking is going to be a very important thing over the coming months.

Going out for a short walk or run alone is a specific exemption to even the current strict French lockdown.

Is the French lockdown quite as strict as has been reported? I heard it had generally been treated with the Gallic shrug in St Tropez and life was going on pretty much as normal.

 

[SHD]

Is the French lockdown quite as strict as has been reported? I heard it had generally been treated with the Gallic shrug in St Tropez and life was going on pretty much as normal.

The lockdown enforced since 12pm is technically strict. From my Parisian suburban window, I can tell you that there has been a marked shift in attitude today. It's eerily quiet here.

There have been absolutely idiotic reactions though, such as significant numbers of people (potentially asymptomatic infected individuals) leaving Paris for the countryside (where the healthcare facilities will be overloaded in a whim).

 

[bramling]

I think common sense applies. As an over-70 I am going to keep walking and maybe even paint our bedroom, which I have been promising to do for the past 5 years! Keep busy!!

Clearly some level of activity is a good thing. Walking and the like should be being encouraged as long as it isn’t in groups.

 

[SouthEastBuses]

On a positive note, a lot of medical teams all over the world are working on a vaccine. And they say that this virus doesn't appear to be a slippery mutating type at present so there's a good prospect of a really effective vaccine. It's just going to take a bit of time unfortunately.

Not only on vaccines, but also on medical cures for those already infected. This brings me the case of Dr. Paolo Ascierto from my (half, as I have dual national nationality lol) country, Italy (the worst affected in Europe) in my local city (Naples, Southern Italy) that managed to develop a medical cure. He tested this on some patients in a very bad condition that were close to death. The result: A fantastic success, those patients were subsequently tested negative to the virus and are now feeling much better. In addition, those patients were wearing ventilators as they couldn't breathe - but thanks to the medicine, they are also now able to breathe normally without the need of a ventilator!
I couldn't be proud of it, especially of a doctor from my local city (whenever I'm in Italy I live about an hour away from Naples).

 

[SouthEastBuses]

I couldn't be more proud of it*

 

[Peter Kelford]

Is the French lockdown quite as strict as has been reported? I heard it had generally been treated with the Gallic shrug in St Tropez and life was going on pretty much as normal.

Officially, at least. With most of these countries we need to look at multiple tiers. The top-tier is the national government (Philippe/Castaner/Macron/Véran). Then the collectivités have their say. Regional and departmental (provincial) prefects - ie Lord Lieutenants/Governors, will issue their own arrêtés, which whilst not able to override the central décret (different kinds of decrees), will variously interpret this announcement. In Paris and Lyon, this role is fulfilled by their respective mayors. Each police force will further interpret this, leading to a situation where two people on the same street might be differently treated. The police officer then may exercise his own discretion.

 

[SHD]

No mayor in France has juridiction over police matters of this kind. There is a national police force (two, actually - the Police Nationale and the Gendarmerie Nationale) - municipal police forces (there are ~8,000 such forces in France, out of ~36,000 communes of which ~10,000 with 1,000 inhabitants or more) only deal with traffic and other minor issues. Please note that Paris does not have a municipal police force and that public order and policing matters in Paris and most of its suburbs are in the hand of the Police Prefect, arguably one of the most powerful civil servants in France, appointed by the Government without any say from the Mayor of Paris or other elected local officials.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Police_Prefecture

please do not take it personally, but now is probably not the best time for stereotypic characterizations of Gallic/Romance people or for loosely based explanations on other countries administrative systems.

 

[AntoniC]

I am a civil servant with 3 issues that put me in the " preventive action needed category".
Today I have been sent home and told to work at home for 12 weeks.

 

[Peter Kelford]

No mayor in France has juridiction over police matters of this kind. There is a national police force (two, actually - the Police Nationale and the Gendarmerie Nationale) - municipal police forces (there are ~8,000 such forces in France, out of ~36,000 communes of which ~10,000 with 1,000 inhabitants or more) only deal with traffic and other minor issues. Please note that Paris does not have a municipal police force and that public order and policing matters in Paris and most of its suburbs are in the hand of the Police Prefect, arguably one of the most powerful civil servants in France, appointed by the Government without any say from the Mayor of Paris or other elected local officials.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Police_Prefecture

please do not take it personally, but now is probably not the best time for stereotypic characterizations of Gallic/Romance people or for loosely based explanations on other countries administrative systems.

The Mayor of Lyon has special powers (or at least the Metropole Grand Lyon). Arrêtés issued by the mayor do have in some cases powers, and the Police Municipale has been mobilised. PLM cities have each a prefect of police, the most powerful of course is Didier Lallement.

 

[ABB125]

Apparently, in Taiwan, they've been using people's phone location data to find out who's been in contact with whoever else (or rather, who's phone has been near someone else's!), and so can see how the virus has spread.
I'm not sure how doing this would work in Britain, if it's even possible (data privacy etc).

 

[yorksrob]

Apparently, in Taiwan, they've been using people's phone location data to find out who's been in contact with whoever else (or rather, who's phone has been near someone else's!), and so can see how the virus has spread.
I'm not sure how doing this would work in Britain, if it's even possible (data privacy etc).

Data protection law makes special exemptions where life and limb are in danger.