Coronavirus.

[Mogster]

Let's just be clear here, the current death rate is of the known cases, and often the people sadly passing have had other pre-conditions (in the case of the UK's deaths all so far). Given that anything up to 80% of the population are expected to have only mild symptoms, then it is entirely likely that the infection rate is much higher, but the mortality rate a lot lower. In South Korea I believe as testing rates went up, the mortality rate went down. So talk of seven digit death rates isn't helpful at this time, and actually might spook even more crazy behaviour in society, something that could be far more consequential in the long run.

Yes agreed. I really wish the tabloid media would use more restrained language while reporting on events surrounding this outbreak. I’m sure it’s fuelling the hysteria.

 

[Meerkat]

It’s better that the government are honest and the media over-egg it a bit. You need a bit of hyperbole to make people change behaviour - washing hands etc

 

[Bantamzen]

Yes agreed. I really wish the tabloid media would use more restrained language while reporting on events surrounding this outbreak. I’m sure it’s fuelling the hysteria.

The media have some responsibility for sure, but its not being helped with politicians in multiple countries panicking either. I'm pretty certain that a lot these decisions are more politicial than they are scientific. Here for example we are trying to prevent a sudden surge on an already over-stretched NHS, in countries like Greece & Spain they are potentially trying to protect their tourism industries by acting during the off-season.

It’s better that the government are honest and the media over-egg it a bit. You need a bit of hyperbole to make people change behaviour - washing hands etc

Well we really shouldn't, and it has some unwanted side effects such as panic buying.

 

[Mogster]

The media have some responsibility for sure, but its not being helped with politicians in multiple countries panicking either. I'm pretty certain that a lot these decisions are more politicial than they are scientific. Here for example we are trying to prevent a sudden surge on an already over-stretched NHS, in countries like Greece & Spain they are potentially trying to protect their tourism industries by acting during the off-season.



Well we really shouldn't, and it has some unwanted side effects such as panic buying.

Agreed.

Looking at his CV It appears Chris Whitty’s whole career has been focused on preparing for this event. Hopefully our politicians will continue listening to him.

 

[Meerkat]

The media have some responsibility for sure, but its not being helped with politicians in multiple countries panicking either. I'm pretty certain that a lot these decisions are more politicial than they are scientific. Here for example we are trying to prevent a sudden surge on an already over-stretched NHS, in countries like Greece & Spain they are potentially trying to protect their tourism industries by acting during the off-season.



Well we really shouldn't, and it has some unwanted side effects such as panic buying.

People are too lazy - ‘government will do something’. Need a bit of shock to get people washing hands etc.
The media have been restrained - I am surprised the Daily Express hasn’t front paged the stories coming out of Italy of battlefield triage leading to old people being left to die.
Panic buying isn’t all bad - it means that lots of people are stocked up so if the plop really hits the fan the panic buying will be less mental (ie if a full lockdown got called)

 

[Peter Kelford]

How long should they be closed for?

2 months at the least, in my own opinion.

Thats the reason they have experts - despite the country apparently being sick of experts

Exactly

Its catching mild symptoms and passing it on to someone who could die from my actions which are the main issue for me

Same for a lot of people I imagine.

recovery is rapid without long term health problems.

Aren't there studies suggesting that people could have reproductive issues, or that they're not properly even cured and that traces are still around some time later?

re the calcs on herd immunity - I assume the aim would be that the herd immunity comes from the ‘healthy’ catching it whilst the vulnerable are isolated away, so the death rates shouldn’t be applicable

Diabetics, asthmatics and suchlike are part of the vulnerable group. Unfortunately, the government seems to not care about these people.

 

[ainsworth74]

2 months at the least, in my own opinion.

What if we get to the end of two months and it's still either not under control or we lift the restrictions and it comes back full force?

 

[TheEdge]

In South Korea I believe as testing rates went up, the mortality rate went down. So talk of seven digit death rates isn't helpful at this time, and actually might spook even more crazy behaviour in society, something that could be far more consequential in the long run.

South Korea tested so many people they got a death rate of 0.6%, that figure takes into account the asymptomatic and mild cases so gives a somewhat more useful figure than the 4-5% numbers that pop up occasionally which are being produced when only people ill enough to end up in hospital are tested.

Also what might be useful when thinking about these numbers is of the people who have already sadly died how many were already ill enough with underlying conditions that any hospitalising illness could have killed them and also how many of them may have ended up seriously ill if they'd just caught seasonal flu or a bad cold.

 

[Mogster]

Aren't there studies suggesting that people could have reproductive issues, or that they're not properly even cured and that traces are still around some time later?

The early “people not building immunity” reports seem to have been caused by unreliable test kits used in China early doors. People were being discharged on the basis of 3 negative tests. The tests were giving false negative results so people were testing pos,neg,pos but they were never actually negative. The tests have improved and are much more reliable, people seem to be building immunity according to the WHO. You will always find some people who don’t build immunity though, some build immmnity far better than others.

There are PCR tests for viral RNA then there are more rapid tests for viral proteins. Being RNA positive usually indicates the presence of viable virus and the infectious stage. Apparently people are testing positive for viral proteins after being tested RNA negative, the viral proteins are fragments though and not viable virus. This shedding of viral fragments goes on for weeks. This isn’t unusual.

I haven’t seen anything about infertility outside a few comments on twitter and tabloid comments boards. I don’t see how you could have any sort of study of that nature in this short period of time.

 

[Meerkat]

I remember seeing one report about “alarming fibrosis on the lungs of survivors”, but only one report, and I don’t know how significant that is medically. It’s ‘just’ scarring isn’t it?

 

[JonathanH]

In another thread, there is discussion about train services being cut which is just part of the retraction of the economy.

At what point are people going to have to be redeployed to construct things that might help the fight against the virus.

A lot of people are going to lose jobs if the economy retracts - how quickly can they be redeployed in some way fighting the virus?

 

[JonathanH]

I remember seeing one report about “alarming fibrosis on the lungs of survivors”, but only one report, and I don’t know how significant that is medically. It’s ‘just’ scarring isn’t it?

I would assume that biopsies of the people who have died so far are being considered very carefully to understand this.

 

[Meerkat]

I would assume that biopsies of the people who have died so far are being considered very carefully to understand this.

You think the Italians have got time and people for proper biopsies? I hope so but....

 

[js1000]

I can see why the UK govt want younger people to absorb most of it and acquire some form of immunity as the symptoms are mild. I don't think the Wuhan, Italy etc option of lockdown will work in the long term - it risks civil disorder (people unhappy at being kept indoors) and a resugent second wave like Spanish Flu which was far worser than the first.

But a lot of the older generation should be worried and take precautions. Some of the ones I've talked to are stubborn and blaise about and talk about Asian, Hong Kong flu etc. The brutal honest statement is that in the coming months if you're 80+ and you have respiratory problems from this illness then there is a fair chance your not even getting an ICU bed due to lack of capacity.

 

[TheEdge]

I can see why the UK govt want younger people to absorb most of it and acquire some form of immunity as the symptoms are mild. I don't think the Wuhan, Italy etc option of lockdown will work in the long term - it risks civil disorder (people unhappy at being kept indoors) and a resugent second wave like Spanish Flu which was far worser than the first.

I keep seeing these comparisons to Spanish Flu and its worth noting that Spanish Flu had a few aces up its sleeve that COVID doesn't (so far and hopefully wont). Not only did it get to thrive in the crowded and incredibly unhygienic conditions of the battlefields of WWI but it also appeared to trigger a cytokine storm which is one of the reasons it killed so many healthy people, their stronger immune systems made their storms much worse than the old, weak and ill.

 

[AM9]

I can see why the UK govt want younger people to absorb most of it and acquire some form of immunity as the symptoms are mild. I don't think the Wuhan, Italy etc option of lockdown will work in the long term - it risks civil disorder (people unhappy at being kept indoors) and a resugent second wave like Spanish Flu which was far worser than the first.

But a lot of the older generation should be worried and take precautions. Some of the ones I've talked to are stubborn and blaise about and talk about Asian, Hong Kong flu etc. The brutal honest statement is that in the coming months if you're 80+ and you have respiratory problems from this illness then there is a fair chance your not even getting an ICU bed due to lack of capacity.

Well it's been strongly hinted this morning that everybody over 70 will be told to stay indoors and subsequent implication that it could be for 12 months. So how much chance of that happening? OK, difficult for high-risk couples where both are in their late seventies or over eighty, especially if one or both of them has a weakness through other health issues, but 70 is not a milestone in age for health reasons, rather it is on a slope towards a geriatric health status. Couples where one is still at work and the other is retired and over 70 could have problems meeting such a restriction.
In addition to self-isolating, a specific order to stay within the house would be largely irrelevant come late April and May/June. By then, many windows would be open and there would be a clamouring to take walks etc., in the fresh air. Providing a safe 'social distance' was kept, and maybe gloves worn if gates, railings etc., were touched, there would be an infinitesimal gain in staying couped up indoors, which in many multi-occupancy buildings could present a higher risk of infection.

 

[Steam Man]

On our Railway we’ve been told to wash our hands regularly use hand gel regularly keep contact with the public to a minimum and wipe everything down on a regular basis like tables door handles that kind of thing.

 

[miami]

Which if they have fully thought it through is probably fair enough, as long as it doesn't result in wider spread.

One problem is it will lead to more pressure on the NHS, denying treatment to younger people

Even just 10-20% more people being tested positive and isolated could really pull the epidemic curve down

Tests only really work once you're showing symptoms. Better for people to take their own temperature every day, and if they start with a cough or temperature then isolate, - basically assuming the outcome of the test is positive.

You'd have to isolate while you wait for the test results anyway.

Its going to cause real financial hardship for a lot of people. I can do 80% of my work form home but it all depends if my clients are there when I call them. Otherwise its forums and the switch.

Indeed, the whole house of cards comes tumbling down. One wonders if this is the end of capitalism if we know it.

The death rate is about 2-4% at the moment worldwide

That's assuming that everyone with the disease has been identified. If they were randomly checking people we'd have an idea on the real number who have it now, but I don't believe there is a test for if you had it 2 weeks ago.

There's no way to know how many people have had it because people don't even notice mild symptoms.

Once we have a test to see if you've ever had it, testing 10,000 scientifically random people every week would be very worthwhile.

Also what might be useful when thinking about these numbers is of the people who have already sadly died how many were already ill enough with underlying conditions that any hospitalising illness could have killed them

Indeed, we won't know for several more months the actual increase in the number of deaths (both covid deaths meaning fewer deaths from say heart attacks or strokes, but also hospital crowding meaning more deaths from say sepsis or gangrene)

What if we get to the end of two months and it's still either not under control or we lift the restrictions and it comes back full force?

At least we'll be out of the winter flu season.

 

[Howardh]

Did anybody watch Matt Hancock on Marr this morning?

If so, can anyone work out what government policy is? Other than "Boy, we should have lost that election to Corbyn, look at the mess we're in"?

 

[JonathanH]

Did anybody watch Matt Hancock on Marr this morning?

If so, can anyone work out what government policy is? Other than "Boy, we should have lost that election to Corbyn, look at the mess we're in"?

These are unprecedented times - there is absolutely nothing to point to the right approach except the opinions and theoretical research of scientists.

No politician would choose to be in the current situation or wish it upon anyone else.

 

[Grumpy Git]

Corbyn and McDonnell have certainly dodged a bullet.

I wonder if Johnson would have been so keen to support "out" if he knew then what he knows now?

 

[JonathanH]

One interesting thing about the timing of this - next weekend is Mothering Sunday / Mothers Day - a time when traditionally families come together - restrictions enforced for over 70s might mean for many it is the last time they see family members for some time - it also might run the risk of spreading the virus around families.

One other thought about isolating over 70s is the lack of exercise and mental stimulation they will have - this will also have a debilitating effect on them - obviously not as much of a risk of the virus but not negligible either.

Careful consideration needed.

 

[Steam Man]

One interesting thing about the timing of this - next weekend is Mothering Sunday / Mothers Day - a time when traditionally families come together - restrictions enforced for over 70s might mean for many it is the last time they see family members for some time - it also might run the risk of spreading the virus around families.

One other thought about isolating over 70s is the lack of exercise and mental stimulation they will have - this will also have a debilitating effect on them - obviously not as much of a risk of the virus but not negligible either.

Careful consideration needed.

My Grans over 80 so I echo what you say

 

[miami]

It amuses me that people calling for a complete lockdown of the entire country a few days ago are now reacting with disgust at the idea a small section of the population will be locked down.

 

[BlueFox]

One interesting thing about the timing of this - next weekend is Mothering Sunday / Mothers Day

Our family has postponed mothers day until the situation improves. My mum has a lung condition that means she's in the high risk category.

 

[DarloRich]

It amuses me that people calling for a complete lockdown of the entire country a few days ago are now reacting with disgust at the idea a small section of the population will be locked down.

I think what many are complaining about is the way this info has come out: unattributed briefings and articles behind paywalls.

It isnt good enough. Remember: biggest piblic health crisis in a generation.

That desrves daily televised briefings by the PM and the chief scientists. Do it by Skype to set an example if you must but do it.

 

[AM9]

I think what many are complaining about is the way this info has come out: unattributed briefings and articles behind paywalls.

It isnt good enough. Remember: biggest piblic health crisis in a generation.

That desrves daily televised briefings by the PM and the chief scientists. Do it by Skype to set an example if you must but do it.

I have generally got information from radio news initially and BBC news websites for the detail. Neither of those are 'behind paywalls'. Even the most tech un-savvy person can listen to a radio, and it's free all day every day.

 

[ainsworth74]

I have generally got information from radio news initially and BBC news websites for the detail. Neither of those are 'behind paywalls'. Even the most tech un-savvy person can listen to a radio, and it's free all day every day.

I believe the issue is that Matt Hancock provided an update and information in an article published in the Telegraph which, initially, was behind their paywall. It obviously got picked up by other outlets but it's not the best look for the Health Secretary to be communicating from behind a paywall.

 

[AM9]

... One other thought about isolating over 70s is the lack of exercise and mental stimulation they will have - this will also have a debilitating effect on them - obviously not as much of a risk of the virus but not negligible either.

Careful consideration needed.

Good point. Actually a three-month solitary confinement could put some on the road to dementia. Phone conversations without visual contact don't necessarily provide enough social interaction to stave off all of the effects of isolation.

 

[edwin_m]

There's no way to know how many people have had it because people don't even notice mild symptoms.

Once we have a test to see if you've ever had it, testing 10,000 scientifically random people every week would be very worthwhile.

Tests for some viruses actually work by testing for antibodies in the blood, so will also show positive if the person has been infected in the past, but I guess may not show positive if the person has not had an immune response, yet or at all. I don't know though whether the tests for Covid-19 are of this type. As things progress it will become increasingly important to let people know when they have immunity, as they can then carry on with normal life including caring for any elderly relatives.