Coronavirus.

[yorksrob]

Agreed, so long as it doesn`t involve others not ready to go.



Didn't this virus mutate from a similar strain to the SARS virus. I was under the impression it had in which case I agree.

Yes. The East Asian live animal markets in their cities have been identified as a serious global public health threat for some years now.

I think the international community should request international independent inspections. Yes, they can deny access, but it will just show the Beijing Government up as being untrustworthy if they do..

 

[Mogster]

Outwardly to the global community the Chinese Government appears to want to remove the animal markets, acknowledging the risk they pose. Internally the small scale breeding of animals for sale in cities by people in rural areas is still encouraged. This small scale livestock breeding feeds cash from the big Chinese cities into rural communities and actually contributes a significant amount to the economy.

They really need to do something about this now though...

 

[yorksrob]

Outwardly to the global community the Chinese Government appears to want to remove the animal markets, acknowledging the risk they pose. Internally the small scale breeding of animals for sale in cities by people in rural areas is still encouraged. This small scale livestock breeding feeds cash from the big Chinese cities into rural communities and actually contributes a significant amount to the economy.

They really need to do something about this now though...

An admission of past failure and commitment to doing something would go some way to salving peoples fears.

I'm not expecting much though

 

[Howardh]

An admission of past failure and commitment to doing something would go some way to salving peoples fears.

I'm not expecting much though

Same applies to Boris.

 

[Cowley]

Same applies to Boris.

Who it’s probably fair to say has been somewhat sideswiped by the recent news that he’s going to be getting married soon and is about to become a father (again)...

 

[yorksrob]

Same applies to Boris.

I didn't vote for Boris. But he appears to have tried to follow scientific opinion. I won't denigrate him for that.

 

[yorksrob]

Who it’s probably fair to say has been somewhat sideswiped by the recent news that he’s going to be getting married soon and is about to become a father (again)...

Ooh, now that I didn't know

 

[Cowley]

Ooh, now that I didn't know

My stepmother (who’s scarily astute at noticing these kind of things) mentioned that he’s looked pretty dazed and stunned whenever he’s appeared in public since that particular bit of news.
In her opinion it perhaps wasn’t Coronavirus that was causing him the most anxiety at the moment...

 

[Darandio]

Who it’s probably fair to say has been somewhat sideswiped by the recent news that he’s going to be getting married soon and is about to become a father (again)...

Congratulations Mr Johnson on your ???th child.

 

[Mathew S]

I think that the problem with that is that we’ve already seen how people react even with a softened down version of reality.
It might be better to feed the bad news in bit by bit when they feel that it can be taken on board rather than dumping everything on the population at once?

I would rather hear the blunt facts. I know there are people who would prefer not to, but I always tend to lean towards honesty being the best policy, especially where bad news is concerned.

 

[edwin_m]

Congratulations Mr Johnson on your ???th child.

He's also going, to use the traditional phrase, to make an honest woman out of Carrie.

Shame he hasn't similarly pledged to make an honest man out of himself.

 

[Cowley]

Congratulations Mr Johnson on your ???th child.

And what choice does he have now other than ‘doing the right thing’..?

Probably better get back on topic here before I end up having to moderate myself, but it’s an interesting little side story that’d probably be a big headline if it wasn’t for all this going on.

 

[Cowley]

I would rather hear the blunt facts. I know there are people who would prefer not to, but I always tend to lean towards honesty being the best policy, especially where bad news is concerned.

I agree. If you’re honest it actually makes life far more easy because you don’t have to remember what lies you’ve told people...

 

[Mogster]

An admission of past failure and commitment to doing something would go some way to salving peoples fears.

I'm not expecting much though

After SARS they agreed action was necessary.

Unfortunately rather than removing the live animal markets from their cities the action involved guys with guns traps and poison roaming the countryside exterminating large quantities of local wildlife... What the Chinese government say to externals and what they actually then do are two very different things. International pressure for change will be immense this time round though.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

And what choice does he have now other than ‘doing the right thing’..?

Probably better get back on topic here before I end up having to moderate myself, but it’s an interesting little side story that’d probably be a big headline if it wasn’t for all this going on.

Definitely shades of Stephen Byers... (whom I had to Google the phrase "burying bad news" to recall the name of)

 

[Mathew S]

I agree. If you’re honest it actually makes life far more easy because you don’t have to remember what lies you’ve told people...

Ha, very true indeed.

 

[yorksrob]

After SARS they agreed action was necessary.

Unfortunately rather than removing the live animal markets from their cities the action involved guys with guns traps and poison roaming the countryside exterminating large quantities of local wildlife... What the Chinese government say to externals and what they actually then do are two very different things. International pressure for change will be immense this time round though.

Well indeed. And that's why we are where we are.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I'd say we should be facing up to the need for the vulnerable to self-isolate to get through it. From what I'm reading today some older people have the attitude that "if it's my time to go, so be it", and they'd rather make the best of their remaining time. Which if they have fully thought it through is probably fair enough, as long as it doesn't result in wider spread.

I'll be honest, if I was 80+ and going senile I'd rather be taken out quickly by this than a lengthy period of having no independence whatsoever.

 

[Jozhua]

Wow, Coronavirus has certainly come as a shock. Things were mostly carrying on as normal but on Friday some big news came in that my lectures were no longer running and I I wouldn't be able to do my TV freelancing work. I believe a few people are still allowed in, not many though, someone is going to operate the autocue from home through team viewer

I think here in the modern age western world we're not used to this kind of crisis, where supplies run low and healthcare/quarantine may prove ineffective. I only hope this works as a shock to governments, businesses, etc around the world to realise they must prepare better for future diseases.

The warning signs were there in January, whilst China may not be as developed as Europe or North America, they're certainly not a 3rd world country and the virus was still a struggle to contain. In places with rights, limiting movement and enforcing quarantine isn't so easy either.

This has also exposed flaws with lean/just in time manufacturing. Whilst it decreases the amount of capital tied up in stockpiles when times are good, there is no barrier or backup when times are bad.

Whilst everyone can probably wait another 6 months for a new phone, making sure we have enough medical supplies, soap, disinfectant, etc to last through a large scale outbreak like this is important. Especially for hospitals and healthcare providers.

Also making sure everyone can access simple things like soap, is important, shops should have limited supplies earlier to combat individuals hoarding cleaning products at the expense of others.

Outwardly to the global community the Chinese Government appears to want to remove the animal markets, acknowledging the risk they pose. Internally the small scale breeding of animals for sale in cities by people in rural areas is still encouraged. This small scale livestock breeding feeds cash from the big Chinese cities into rural communities and actually contributes a significant amount to the economy.

They really need to do something about this now though...

Yeah, I'm glad the Chinese government is looking to get rid of this.

What I think made COVID-19 worse in some ways was how far China has come, even in the last decade or so. With so much more business and travel causing a rise in domestic and international movement through the country, diseases like this can spread much more easily.

I didn't vote for Boris. But he appears to have tried to follow scientific opinion. I won't denigrate him for that.

Yeah, the 'herd immunity' is a very dumb idea, don't know where that came from or if anyone in government mentioned it, but the rest seems reasonable.

Essentially, slowing the spread, to reduce the peak to a level where the NHS can cope is very sensible. I'm aware they also want to be careful as to when they enforce quarantine, as they know people will tire of it.

I think they could do better in testing and isolating more people, I'm aware they want to be careful with resources but if they can afford to cut interest rates, they can afford some more tests. Even just 10-20% more people being tested positive and isolated could really pull the epidemic curve down.

He's also going, to use the traditional phrase, to make an honest woman out of Carrie.

Shame he hasn't similarly pledged to make an honest man out of himself.

This is totally off topic, but I am glad to see that people are accepting of the PM's co-habitation arrangements!

Many couples in the UK have found this a good way of making sure they're in a healthy relationship before commiting for the long haul, so it's nice to see a bit of this flexibility with the PM & wife. Whilst I wouldn't vote Tory personally, it's nice to see the modern day party is fairly Liberal in regards to social issues, etc. We're luckier than the US, where fiscally Conservative policy is inantely tied with socially Conservative opinion.

 

[Mogster]

Yeah, the 'herd immunity' is a very dumb idea, don't know where that came from or if anyone in government mentioned it, but the rest seems reasonable.

Essentially, slowing the spread, to reduce the peak to a level where the NHS can cope is very sensible. I'm aware they also want to be careful as to when they enforce quarantine, as they know people will tire of it.

I think they could do better in testing and isolating more people, I'm aware they want to be careful with resources but if they can afford to cut interest rates, they can afford some more tests. Even just 10-20% more people being tested positive and isolated could really pull the epidemic curve down.

“Herd immunity” really isn’t a “dumb idea” if we don’t build collective resistance as a population soon outbreaks of SARS CoV2 will probably just carry on re-occurring. From the start of this outbreak epidemiologists were suggesting we’d be unable to control SARS CoV2 but the most likely outcome would be the virus being added to the list of agents that circulate in our population causing manageable levels of disease especially in winter. The problem still is that we don’t understand it enough yet to be able to predict what it will do. Similar things have been said by the French government over the last couple of days regarding “herd immmnity” but because the statements are released in French they don’t seem to get picked up by the English speaking media quite as much as Trump’s ramblings.

What does surprise me is that the government were so honest initially about this. People are used to being re-assured and told we can control everything... Deaths globally still haven’t reached 10,000. We really do need to “keep calm and carry on”

For reference deaths by some other agents/causes globally per year on average...

Dengue - 25,000an
Rabies - 60,000an
Cholera - 120,000an
Snake Bites - 150,000an
Typhoid - 150,000an
Malaria - 400,000an
Dysentery - 600,000an
HIV - 700,000an
HBV - 900,000an
TB - 1.5 000 000an

And these are just deaths, the figures for life changing injuries caused by these conditions are much much higher.

 

[AM9]

... For reference deaths by some other agents/causes globally per year on average...

Dengue - 25,000an
Rabies - 60,000an
Cholera - 120,000an
Snake Bites - 150,000an
Typhoid - 150,000an
Malaria - 400,000an
Dysentery - 600,000an
HIV - 700,000an
HBV - 900,000an
TB - 1.5 000 000an

And these are just deaths, the figures for life changing injuries caused by these conditions are much much higher.

That last figure for TB, is it 1.5m or 15m?

 

[nidave]

“Herd immunity” really isn’t a “dumb idea”

That means
UK Population c70 Million
Say 60% catch the virus = c42 Million
Say 0.1% die - that is close to c5000 deaths

The death rate is about 2-4% at the moment worldwide so that means (This is an extreme as the UK has decent healthcare and are taking measures)
that makes it c840,000 to 1.65 Million deaths (UK Only) with no cure or vaccine - is that a price we are willing to pay for Herd immunity for those left behind who have to catch it in some form to get this immunity?

(My sums might be a bit wrong - its still early)
Edit: Calculation was wrong
Say 0.1% die - that is close to c5000 deaths

 

[Jozhua]

“Herd immunity” really isn’t a “dumb idea” if we don’t build collective resistance as a population soon outbreaks of SARS CoV2 will probably just carry on re-occurring. From the start of this outbreak epidemiologists were suggesting we’d be unable to control SARS CoV2 but the most likely outcome would be the virus being added to the list of agents that circulate in our population causing manageable levels of disease especially in winter. The problem still is that we don’t understand it enough yet to be able to predict what it will do. Similar things have been said by the French government over the last couple of days regarding “herd immmnity” but because the statements are released in French they don’t seem to get picked up by the English speaking media quite as much as Trump’s ramblings.

What does surprise me is that the government were so honest initially about this. People are used to being re-assured and told we can control everything... Deaths globally still haven’t reached 10,000. We really do need to “keep calm and carry on”

For reference deaths by some other agents/causes globally per year on average...

Dengue - 25,000an
Rabies - 60,000an
Cholera - 120,000an
Snake Bites - 150,000an
Typhoid - 150,000an
Malaria - 400,000an
Dysentery - 600,000an
HIV - 700,000an
HBV - 900,000an
TB - 1.5 000 000an

And these are just deaths, the figures for life changing injuries caused by these conditions are much much higher.

Unfortunately Coronavirus death rates are likely to be much higher than those caused by above diseases if left to circulate among the wider population. If 60% of the UK population caught COVID-19, with a 0.7% death rate that's 281,400 dead.

Worldwide, left uncontrolled, if only 10% got the virus, 5 million deaths would be likely. If 60% of the world's population was to get 'herd immunity', 32 million would perish in the process. That's assuming everyone has access to world leading healthcare, like that seen in South Korea.

Herd immunity works best if most are vaccinated instead of relying on people getting infected. Plus, if hundreds of thousands perish in the goal of reaching herd immunity, if the virus then mutates (which they often do, being unstable balls of DNA/RNA), it was all for nothing.

Diseases like HIV, Malaria, etc were rightfully feared. However, we now understand them much better and have vaccines, medication and rapid screening. We understand how they spread and have implemented public health policies to try and limit new cases.

No-one would argue 'herd immunity' through infection is a good idea for HIV, Cholera, Rabies, Malaria, etc. Vaccinating against the diseases you can, and mitigating the others is the best way to move forward.

On a higher level, this is a major public health issue, but for individuals I think people really need to calm down. Panic buying toilet roll won't help. Stockpiling hand sanitiser and denying others in your community the ability to clean their hands could make the spread worse. Take what you need and look out for others, we will only defeat this as a community, not alone.

 

[Peter Kelford]

There seems to have been much a parallel discussion on the other Covid thread about this too.

 

[Peter Kelford]

The idea of Herd Immunity applies to vaccines - i.e. doses are small, and under complete control. Herd immunity in this manner has never been done before and won't work. You can control a deliberately lit fire that is thoughtfully planned, but a wildfire is a lot harder to control. You can start a bush fire, but you can't be sure about ending it. This is the problem. Herd immunity works only when it is under control. This is not. You need to bring it under control before you start strategically infecting people.

Also, for a country that prides itself on its good human rights record, this sort of infection needs to be done in a way with the consent of the people, or at least a viable alternative. Otherwise, it equates to the state-sponsored systematic killing (democide) of up to 1m people. This is roughly the same number of deaths as occurred in Stalin's great purge (600k to 1.2m).

It seems plain hypocritical to me.

That means
UK Population c70 Million
Say 60% catch the virus = c42 Million
Say 0.1% die - that is close to c0.5 Million deaths

It's going to be more than that by HMG's own estimates (80%). If we use the 2% death rate, we are going to have 1m deaths to Covid19. See my point above about Stalin's purge.

The government should be doing what others are doing: closing non-essential business, schools etc.

 

[ainsworth74]

The government should be doing what others are doing: closing non-essential business, schools etc.

How long should they be closed for?

 

[nidave]

How long should they be closed for?

Thats the reason they have experts - despite the country apparently being sick of experts

Its going to cause real financial hardship for a lot of people. I can do 80% of my work form home but it all depends if my clients are there when I call them. Otherwise its forums and the switch.

Its catching mild symptoms and passing it on to someone who could die from my actions which are the main issue for me

 

[Mogster]

Unfortunately Coronavirus death rates are likely to be much higher than those caused by above diseases if left to circulate among the wider population. If 60% of the UK population caught COVID-19, with a 0.7% death rate that's 281,400 dead.

Worldwide, left uncontrolled, if only 10% got the virus, 5 million deaths would be likely. If 60% of the world's population was to get 'herd immunity', 32 million would perish in the process. That's assuming everyone has access to world leading healthcare, like that seen in South Korea.

Herd immunity works best if most are vaccinated instead of relying on people getting infected. Plus, if hundreds of thousands perish in the goal of reaching herd immunity, if the virus then mutates (which they often do, being unstable balls of DNA/RNA), it was all for nothing.

Diseases like HIV, Malaria, etc were rightfully feared. However, we now understand them much better and have vaccines, medication and rapid screening. We understand how they spread and have implemented public health policies to try and limit new cases.

No-one would argue 'herd immunity' through infection is a good idea for HIV, Cholera, Rabies, Malaria, etc. Vaccinating against the diseases you can, and mitigating the others is the best way to move forward.

On a higher level, this is a major public health issue, but for individuals I think people really need to calm down. Panic buying toilet roll won't help. Stockpiling hand sanitiser and denying others in your community the ability to clean their hands could make the spread worse. Take what you need and look out for others, we will only defeat this as a community, not alone.

I used the figures to demonstrate that humans are dying from infectious disease in large numbers. Much larger than from SARS CoV2 so far, although yes that could change but it’s far from certain.

Herd immunity works in this case as symptoms are mild for most, recovery is rapid without long term health problems. The likelihood is that many more than we realise have had SARS CoV2 infections and are now recovered. China are supposed to be starting widespread serological studies, that should indicate how many people have been infected and recovered. That’s the missing part of the picture currently.

 

[Meerkat]

I'll be honest, if I was 80+ and going senile I'd rather be taken out quickly by this than a lengthy period of having no independence whatsoever.

But.....the bit that I really don’t like is that they are talking about deaths being a month after infection. My mum hates hospitals - the idea of her dying untreated, drowning on her own sputum, with a lack of available nursing and no visitors for a month - not good.

re the calcs on herd immunity - I assume the aim would be that the herd immunity comes from the ‘healthy’ catching it whilst the vulnerable are isolated away, so the death rates shouldn’t be applicable

 

[Bantamzen]

That means
UK Population c70 Million
Say 60% catch the virus = c42 Million
Say 0.1% die - that is close to c5000 deaths

The death rate is about 2-4% at the moment worldwide so that means (This is an extreme as the UK has decent healthcare and are taking measures)
that makes it c840,000 to 1.65 Million deaths (UK Only) with no cure or vaccine - is that a price we are willing to pay for Herd immunity for those left behind who have to catch it in some form to get this immunity?

(My sums might be a bit wrong - its still early)
Edit: Calculation was wrong
Say 0.1% die - that is close to c5000 deaths

Let's just be clear here, the current death rate is of the known cases, and often the people sadly passing have had other pre-conditions (in the case of the UK's deaths all so far). Given that anything up to 80% of the population are expected to have only mild symptoms, then it is entirely likely that the infection rate is much higher, but the mortality rate a lot lower. In South Korea I believe as testing rates went up, the mortality rate went down. So talk of seven digit death rates isn't helpful at this time, and actually might spook even more crazy behaviour in society, something that could be far more consequential in the long run.