Coronavirus: How scared should we be?

[takno]

It seems to me that a potential solution here is for everyone who really shouldn't or doesn't want to catch the virus to wear a (effective) mask *and* goggles in public places, and leave everyone else to do as they wish, and therefore try to get to something approximating to herd immunity while it is still summer.

I do worry that we're going to look back on a wasted spring and summer, not only in pointless cowering, but also because it's looking increasingly likely that a chunk of the population could have developed the infection in better circumstances.

It's going to be no fun at all when winter comes, with weather that keeps us indoors, normal winter colds to make even the asymptomatic sneeze and cough all over everything, and a generally worse immune response amongst the vulnerable. Less whack-a-mole and more lightly-slap-a-rampaging-elephant.

 

[bramling]

I do worry that we're going to look back on a wasted spring and summer, not only in pointless cowering, but also because it's looking increasingly likely that a chunk of the population could have developed the infection in better circumstances.

It's going to be no fun at all when winter comes, with weather that keeps us indoors, normal winter colds to make even the asymptomatic sneeze and cough all over everything, and a generally worse immune response amongst the vulnerable. Less whack-a-mole and more lightly-slap-a-rampaging-elephant.

There hasn’t really been an explanation as to what happens were it to be successfully implemented. Unless we had a very effective track and trace system, a solution to borders would be necessary, and there doesn’t seem to be one which is viable, short of doing it for a given period and banking on a vaccine.

 

[Yew]

No, movement will spread the protein further. A bit of breeze doesn't cause a virus to break down, it just moves it about. Outdoors that isn't such an issue becuase of space and because most virus particles won't fall on a person or on a surface a person will touch. But indoors it really is an issue. All the big superspreader events have been indoors; Italy had one at a wedding, Singapore had one in a department store.

I do wonder to what effect Air ionisers and Ozone generators would effect the time micro droplets are airborne for, these devices typically cause airborne particulates to settle more quickly.

 

[Yew]

It's going to be no fun at all when winter comes, with weather that keeps us indoors, normal winter colds to make even the asymptomatic sneeze and cough all over everything, and a generally worse immune response amongst the vulnerable. Less whack-a-mole and more lightly-slap-a-rampaging-elephant.

Indeed, I am worried about winter hitting, and seeing the infection piggyback, on standard cold and flu infections.

 

[MikeWM]

I do worry that we're going to look back on a wasted spring and summer, not only in pointless cowering, but also because it's looking increasingly likely that a chunk of the population could have developed the infection in better circumstances.

It is quite plausible, yes. Either the lockdown strategy has 'succeeded', in which case we're in exactly that situation where very little has been resolved - or it has 'failed' and didn't really stop the virus spreading at all, and we're not far off herd immunity anyway. My hunch is the latter; I hope I'm right. But either way we've wasted spring and summer.

I think there is a wider point here about humanity as a whole. What on earth has happened to us? Do we not want to progress, achieve, strive anymore? Is mere existence supposed to be sufficient now? As I've mentioned before, during the Hong Kong flu, which was similar to if not worse than this, we went to the Moon!

 

[Mag_seven]

I think there is a wider point here about humanity as a whole. What on earth has happened to us? Do we not want to progress, achieve, strive anymore? Is mere existence supposed to be sufficient now? As I've mentioned before, during the Hong Kong flu, which was similar to if not worse than this, we went to the Moon!

Since the 60s for whatever reason there has been an increasing expectation that we should be wrapped in cotton wool and have become increasingly risk averse as a result.

 

[takno]

during the Hong Kong flu, which was similar to if not worse than this, we went to the Moon!

That's definitely taking lockdown too far!

 

[6862]

I think there is a wider point here about humanity as a whole. What on earth has happened to us? Do we not want to progress, achieve, strive anymore? Is mere existence supposed to be sufficient now? As I've mentioned before, during the Hong Kong flu, which was similar to if not worse than this, we went to the Moon!

We can only be seen to strive to achieve in the areas which are currently popular, as dictated by celebrities, the media and social media. The 'deadly' virus will be the only thing that matters until celebrities and the media get hold of something else to focus on. I thought the black lives matter protests would eclipse this in the media, but they didn't because they were immediately linked (rightly or wrongly) to the 'deadly' virus. The issue with the media being so dominant is that it's a self-feeding cycle - the news hypes up every single event, more media/celebrities weigh in with their opinions, more news is generated etc. The difference back in the days of the Hong Kong Flu was that we didn't have a mechanism for putting the same message instantly into the homes of a massive proportion of the country - of course radio and TV were around but they didn't provide the same platform for influential celebrities to say what they thought whenever they wanted.

We should be a lot less scared than we are, and if we can collectively be less scared, the media will not be able to sustain its fear-mongering as easily as they currently can with the terrified populace.

 

[Howardh]

A few weeks ago during the Downing St addresses they used to say how many people are known to be carrying Covid at that point, followed by something like one-in-1500 (or something along those lines).
I've scoured the internet to find the current figures of known carriers - ie not the total number altogether - and have come up with a blank. I can find daily totals (ie 300 infected in a partucular day) so I'm multiplying that by 21 days as that's roughly how long Covid lasts. *Which could be wrong in itself*
Basically, I want to know how many in 10,000 are currently known carriers if that's possible to work out? Is that info out there??
Can anyone assist? Cheers!!

 

[MikeWM]

This is an interesting (6 year old, but relevant) discussion on risk and science and how they feed one another.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/adamcurtis/entries/a2094c9d-9864-348e-a241-7aa93adf0c09

This is really just an excuse to show a wonderful film about vegetables.

But it is also about how modern science has radically changed in a way that hasn’t been fully understood.

How it has gone from promising extraordinary new worlds of the future - to become a powerfully conservative force that holds progress back and tends to keep people in their place.

...

It meant - Beck said - that the whole role of politics would inevitably change. In the past politicians’ main aim had been to create a more equal society. That was now in decline. In the new “risk society” their main focus should be to create safety.

...

That was written in 1986 - and it is remarkably prescient. Because that short paragraph pretty much describes the present day mood in our society. A world where individuals are constantly calibrating risks in their lives, while politicians are expected to anticipate and avoid all future risks and dangers.

And everyone gives up on the idea of creating equality, which allows inequality to increase massively.

Beck’s book is extraordinary - because he came from the liberal left. Yet he is basically saying that in the face of these new potential risks we will have to move away from the political idea of progress and social reform - and instead hunker down in the brace position and try and anticipate all dangers that might be coming at us out of the darkness.

It's an interesting and thought-provoking piece.

Adam Curtis is no longer at the BBC, of course - or at least, he seems to have stopped writing this blog.

 

[Smidster]

A few weeks ago during the Downing St addresses they used to say how many people are known to be carrying Covid at that point, followed by something like one-in-1500 (or something along those lines).
I've scoured the internet to find the current figures of known carriers - ie not the total number altogether - and have come up with a blank. I can find daily totals (ie 300 infected in a partucular day) so I'm multiplying that by 21 days as that's roughly how long Covid lasts. *Which could be wrong in itself*
Basically, I want to know how many in 10,000 are currently known carriers if that's possible to work out? Is that info out there??
Can anyone assist? Cheers!!

Do you mean the ONS infection study - https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/latest

The last estimate was 1 in 2,200 (though obviously there are wide confidence intervals around that)

Next release should be tomorrow.

 

[Howardh]

Do you mean the ONS infection study - https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/latest

The last estimate was 1 in 2,200 (though obviously there are wide confidence intervals around that)

Next release should be tomorrow.

Thanks, that's great - also thanks for the note how often it's updated.

 

[Enthusiast]

I want to know how many in 10,000 are currently known carriers if that's possible to work out?

The last estimate was 1 in 2,200

Yes it was one in 2,000 (or thereabouts) when I first read reports of Local Authorities narrowing roads to widen pavements. Of course there are wide variations across the country - my local authority area (around 350,000 people) has not seen a new confirmed case for ten or eleven days and only two since the middle of June. But on average you have a one in 2,000 chance of even encountering somebody with the virus, let alone catching it from them. There is no way I am going to remain confined to barracks in order to mitigate such a ridiculously small chance of contracting the virus, even though, being in the older age group, the results could be quite dodgy for me. There was letter in the paper today where a husband described how his wife had quite a nasty accident coming off her bicycle. She finished up with cuts, bruises and bad sprains to her wrists and ankles. As she lay on the ground, injured and dazed with her bike on top of her she asked a young couple sitting on a bench nearby if they would kindly help her. They refused saying "we don't want to catch anything!" That is what scaremongering leads to.

Seems some promising news on the supermarket front, though:

Supermarkets and Covid-19

At some point we will be back to a westerlies pattern, if not there already. This is a fairly well understood feature of U.K. weather, which normally occurs some time around June. Indeed the transition from wall-to-wall blue sky a couple of weeks ago to cloudy unsettled days suggests that this...

www.railforums.co.uk

 

[philosopher]

We can only be seen to strive to achieve in the areas which are currently popular, as dictated by celebrities, the media and social media. The 'deadly' virus will be the only thing that matters until celebrities and the media get hold of something else to focus on. I thought the black lives matter protests would eclipse this in the media, but they didn't because they were immediately linked (rightly or wrongly) to the 'deadly' virus. The issue with the media being so dominant is that it's a self-feeding cycle - the news hypes up every single event, more media/celebrities weigh in with their opinions, more news is generated etc. The difference back in the days of the Hong Kong Flu was that we didn't have a mechanism for putting the same message instantly into the homes of a massive proportion of the country - of course radio and TV were around but they didn't provide the same platform for influential celebrities to say what they thought whenever they wanted.

We should be a lot less scared than we are, and if we can collectively be less scared, the media will not be able to sustain its fear-mongering as easily as they currently can with the terrified populace.

Perhaps the problem on why this has caused so much chaos is that science in the past few decades has been far too focused on computing technology, to the detriment of other fields of science.

If the same amount of research had gone on medicine as it had to computing then perhaps by now scientists would have come up with an effective Coronavirus anti-viral drug by now, similar to antibiotics that we already have. Then there would have no need for all this social distancing, as Covid-19 would have been easily treatable and hence not much of a threat. Indeed you would thought SARS in 2003 should have spurred the scientists into developing Coronavirus treatments, however it appears that this was not the case.

I do hope after all this, far more effort is put on medical research to develop more effective drugs against infectious diseases.

 

[adc82140]

Indeed, I am worried about winter hitting, and seeing the infection piggyback, on standard cold and flu infections.

I will be getting a flu jab this year for the first time in many years. Not because flu worries me, but I don't want to have to self isolate for two weeks if I'm feeling a bit under the weather for flu reasons this winter.

 

[MikeWM]

I will be getting a flu jab this year for the first time in many years. Not because flu worries me, but I don't want to have to self isolate for two weeks if I'm feeling a bit under the weather for flu reasons this winter.

I'd check the studies first. There seems to be at least some evidence out there that having had the flu jab may make a COVID-19 infection *more* likely.

See this study for example
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X19313647

Conclusions

Receipt of influenza vaccination was not associated with virus interference among our population. Examining virus interference by specific respiratory viruses showed mixed results. Vaccine derived virus interference was significantly associated with coronavirus and human metapneumovirus; however, significant protection with vaccination was associated not only with most influenza viruses, but also parainfluenza, RSV, and non-influenza virus coinfections.

(bold mine)

In that case they're referring to common-cold coronavirus rather than the current strain, but it gives pause for thought.

 

[Howardh]

I was in a state of panic because when I got home on Saturday I didn't clean my hands after getting out of the taxi (door handles etc). Absolutely over-paranoid, I agree. But then again i don't want to get CV prior to my holiday season and can't go - I've had enough cancelled in the last two years not to risk another one.

So dammned if I do, dammend if I don't. But at least in the majority of places I go to there is distancing which makes me feel more comfortable.

Next question, when will be the time that two strangers can confirm they haven't got CV so can start a close relationship? I'm not for shaking someone's hand right now, how long will that last?

 

[takno]

Next question, when will be the time that two strangers can confirm they haven't got CV so can start a close relationship? I'm not for shaking someone's hand right now, how long will that last?

6 pints I'd say. Maybe 7 if they've had a decent meal first and taken it slowly

 

[Scrotnig]

There was letter in the paper today where a husband described how his wife had quite a nasty accident coming off her bicycle. She finished up with cuts, bruises and bad sprains to her wrists and ankles. As she lay on the ground, injured and dazed with her bike on top of her she asked a young couple sitting on a bench nearby if they would kindly help her. They refused saying "we don't want to catch anything!" That is what scaremongering leads to.

This is exactly where we have ended up.

As a society, we would rather leave people to die, because we are so scared of the virus.

See also how cancer, heart attack and stroke victims are being left to die, because nobody cares about deaths from those any more.

People with serious disabilities are being left to die, because nobdoy cares about deaths from those now either.

 

[talldave]

I'm sick to death of reading rubbish like this now. People who post, read and take in stuff like this are the same people that would rather jump into a busy road than simply pass someone on the street.

I thought most of it was confined to Facebook but coronaphobia infection does appear to be spreading in the real world too.

 

[Yew]

Indeed, I've seen advice not to perform mouth to mouth CPR and only do chest compressions.

 

[Jamesrob637]

I'm currently in Croatia for a weeks holiday.
The moment I stepped off the plane I wouldn't know there's supposedly a pandemic. Everything is normal.
No social distancing, no queues, no masks, no disposable menus, tables very close together in the bars.
Its amazing and I'm dreading returning to the UK and our over the top ridcilous "rules"

"Tables very close together" does that mean some social distancing is in place at venues like restaurants? Enjoy your holiday: Croatia is amazing.

 

[Huntergreed]

I thought most of it was confined to Facebook but coronaphobia infection does appear to be spreading in the real world too.

It's far more infectious! There are people I know who are actually planning to boycott pubs, public transport and the hospitality industry purely because they genuinely believe they are 'trying to kill them' and 'don't want to sacrifice their family to the government' (that's what I've been told by someone anyway). It's beyond crazy!

 

[Mag_seven]

There are people I know who are actually planning to boycott pubs, public transport and the hospitality industry

My view would be well let them boycott then - no skin off my nose!

 

[Baxenden Bank]

Just read about that in the Guardian. Last week it was constantly being explained at me that it doesn't matter about the air shooting upwards out of the mask because all the droplets go forwards and get caught, so they are much more protective than they might appear. Now it turns out that we should all be worrying about where the air shoots out after all, but that's even more of a reason to wear masks, because reasons.

I've had it on good authority (can't quote names obviously) that if everyone stops breathing, the virus will be entirely eradicated in no time at all.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Indeed, I've seen advice not to perform mouth to mouth CPR and only do chest compressions.

To be fair, the resuscitation councils are heading this way anyway, and it may not be long before this is the standard recommendation. There's a lot more than COVID you can catch from someone by exchange of bodily fluids, and compressions move the lungs sufficiently to get some air in, particularly given that if you do rescue breaths you're breathing air into them that has already had a fair bit of its oxygen depleted. So it's not just a COVID thing.

It's also simpler and less likely to knacker out the First Aider.

 

[talldave]

My view would be well let them boycott then - no skin off my nose!

Indeed, let them stay at home being scared. But I don't have to tolerate them lecturing me on what I can and can't do.

 

[Baxenden Bank]

Perhaps the problem on why this has caused so much chaos is that science in the past few decades has been far too focused on computing technology, to the detriment of other fields of science.

If the same amount of research had gone on medicine as it had to computing then perhaps by now scientists would have come up with an effective Coronavirus anti-viral drug by now, similar to antibiotics that we already have. Then there would have no need for all this social distancing, as Covid-19 would have been easily treatable and hence not much of a threat. Indeed you would thought SARS in 2003 should have spurred the scientists into developing Coronavirus treatments, however it appears that this was not the case.

I do hope after all this, far more effort is put on medical research to develop more effective drugs against infectious diseases.

There was a piece on the radio a while back. After the SARS outbreak calmed down, the urgency to find a vaccine disappeared, the funding dried up, the research essentially stopped.

 

[43066]

It's far more infectious! There are people I know who are actually planning to boycott pubs, public transport and the hospitality industry purely because they genuinely believe they are 'trying to kill them' and 'don't want to sacrifice their family to the government' (that's what I've been told by someone anyway). It's beyond crazy!

You have to wonder what kind of depressing and incredibly boring life these people aspire to lead, with no socialising, no travelling etc. Not much of a life at all!

I say let them get on with it - just so long as my taxes aren’t being used to pay then to sit at home!

 

[Scrotnig]

You have to wonder what kind of depressing and incredibly boring life these people aspire to lead, with no socialising, no travelling etc. Not much of a life at all!

I say let them get on with it - just so long as my taxes aren’t being used to pay then to sit at home!

This is my view on it too.

I say, by all means stay locked in your houses, with two caveats:
1. Don't expect me to do the same
2. Don't expect me to fund you doing nothing all day
Otherwise, go right ahead.