Commuting 'not coming back': Harper

[ar10642]

Some people do. I decided not to replace my car in 2020 and have used public transport ever since.

OK, *almost* nobody. Don't you get a substantial discount as a driver? I'd probably think about ditching the car if PT was both far cheaper and better, sadly I no longer live within walking distance of a station, and whilst the buses are temporarily good value (more than 50% off due to £2 singles), the frequency and length of service (including no Sunday service whatsoever) mean it's not realistic.

 

[43066]

OK, *almost* nobody. Don't you get a substantial discount as a driver? I'd probably think about ditching the car if PT was both far cheaper and better, sadly I no longer live within walking distance of a station, and whilst the buses are temporarily good value (more than 50% off due to £2 singles), the frequency and length of service (including no Sunday service whatsoever) mean it's not realistic.

A pretty healthy % of households in London have no car. I do get a discount but only on national rail. Buses, the tube etc. is full price.

If you have chosen to live somewhere with no public transport, it’s hardly surprising you have to rely on a car! If you have the option of both (as I did) then ditching the car may well prove attractive.

 

[12LDA28C]

Some people do. I decided not to replace my car in 2020 and have used public transport ever since.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Mar 2023 ==

Realistically this is only an option for people who live in London or other major conurbations with excellent public transport links, or hermits.

I certainly could not get rid of my car as certain journeys I make could not be done by public transport at all, or in the timescale required.

 

[ar10642]

A pretty healthy % of households in London have no car. I do get a discount but only on national rail. Buses, the tube etc. is full price.

If you have chosen to live somewhere with no public transport, it’s hardly surprising you have to rely on a car! If you have the option of both (as I did) then ditching the car may well prove attractive.

It's not really a choice as such, we were forced to move to where we could afford.

 

[Ken H]

Realistically this is only an option for people who live in London or other major conurbations with excellent public transport links, or hermits.

I certainly could not get rid of my car as certain journeys I make could not be done by public transport at all, or in the timescale required.

Not sure major conurbations are viable public transport areas. Many of the bus services have been thinned out or abandoned. Or finish too early in the evening. The offering in Leeds is a shadow of what was running when I was a kid (60's/70's), when just using the bus was an option.

 

[Bletchleyite]

A pretty healthy % of households in London have no car. I do get a discount but only on national rail. Buses, the tube etc. is full price.

If you have chosen to live somewhere with no public transport, it’s hardly surprising you have to rely on a car! If you have the option of both (as I did) then ditching the car may well prove attractive.

London is about the only part of the UK where you can live a full life with few restrictions without the use of a car, and even so I'd say a bicycle or taxis will be necessary some of the time. In the rest of the country provision is just too patchy unless you live a very constrained life indeed, spend a fortune on taxis, are fit enough to cycle a very long way daily or rely on lifts from other people. Sure, you can live without a car somewhere like Milton Keynes, but the quality of that life will be very poor unless you spend a fortune on taxis (and someone who doesn't have a car but does do that doesn't get to claim any sort of moral high ground because taxis and private cars cause the same pollution, indeed a diesel TX1 is far, far worse than a petrol Corsa*, for instance).

It wouldn't take much to sort that out either, for instance last trains an hour or two later would make a major difference to being able to e.g. go to the nearest big city to see a show or concert without driving. It's ludicrous, for instance, that the last Birmingham-Euston on a Saturday is so early - 2310 on a weekday is what it should be all week.

* I can't help but think the UK has got accessibility a bit wrong with taxis, basically mandating medium-sized minibuses to be driven round the whole time just in case there's a need to carry a wheelchair user once in a while, when tuk-tuk sized vehicles are more suited to the urban taxi's most common job of carrying one or maybe two people. There really must be a better way to balance accessibility and pollution/roadspace use.

 

[43066]

Realistically this is only an option for people who live in London or other major conurbations with excellent public transport links, or hermits.

Yes that’s all true. Albeit that still accounts for a large number of people.

It wouldn't take much to sort that out either, for instance last trains an hour or two later would make a major difference to being able to e.g. go to the nearest big city to see a show or concert without driving.

Well indeed. Unfortunately we have had a succession of governments who would rather give tax breaks to motorists than invest in decent public transport!

 

[BrianW]

It's not really a choice as such, we were forced to move to where we could afford.

I lived until a few years ago in a village where the bus was every two hours Mon- Sat; it 'changed' to none at all, not even nearby!

I now live ten minutes walk from a mainline station and city centre with bus station, and shops!

 

[ar10642]

I lived until a few years ago in a village where the bus was every two hours Mon- Sat; it 'changed' to none at all, not even nearby!

I now live ten minutes walk from a mainline station and city centre with bus station, and shops!

Prices have skyrocketed in this area wherever there is a railway station with a decent service. The town where were were living has almost become like Travelcard zone 7 with prices to match. Hybrid working is largely the reason I'd guess.

 

[Meerkat]

Except it would have been virtually impossible to start it up again, so it wasn’t a “perfect opportunity” to do anything of the sort - hence why they didn’t.

Not being able to start it up again would be perfect if the government were as anti-railway as you allege!

Look up the cost of furlough, which was a direct “bail out” to retail and catering. Eat out to help out alone was nearly £1bn.

Relative to the size of the industries and how many jobs?

taxis will be necessary some of the time

Thats another gain of a dense urban area - much better taxi availability. In one small town there seemed to only be a couple of taxis.

doesn't get to claim any sort of moral high ground because taxis and private cars cause the same pollution

In some ways taxis are worse, as they have to drive to your pick up, and away from your drop point - a bit like airports encouraging parking as its fewer trips than being dropped off by car.

 

[Bletchleyite]

In some ways taxis are worse, as they have to drive to your pick up, and away from your drop point - a bit like airports encouraging parking as its fewer trips than being dropped off by car.

I think it evens out a bit - cars need parking, taxis potentially pollute more due to their size and need to make extra trips.

 

[DarloRich]

anecdotal experiance: Commuting on my line is doing well on Tuesday > Thursday but is dead on Monday and Friday. I would say it is coming back but differently.

( off peak travel and especially at Weekends is BONKERS!)

 

[Bletchleyite]

anecdotal experiance: Commuting on my line is doing well on Tuesday > Thursday but is dead on Monday and Friday. I would say it is coming back but differently.

Yep, that's my observation - Tues-Thurs roughly back to where it was, Mon quieter, Fri almost dead.

I think at BLY we're seeing busier fast trains as they now come through from Birmingham, and people who abandoned Avanti for LNR seem to have stuck with LNR. I now don't aim to use the fasts at all, they're too busy. I'm inclined to say they need to be 12-car south of Northampton on Saturdays and Sundays all day, for instance.

 

[43066]

Not being able to start it up again would be perfect if the government were as anti-railway as you allege!

It’s an essential service, hence why it wasn’t shut down. That in no way implies that the government is pro-railway as you seem to be arguing. The fact they’re now cutting services as passenger numbers are recovering is rather good evidence of their priorities.

Relative to the size of the industries and how many jobs?

We are focussing on costs to the tax payer, which I thought were your main concern?

£13.6bn over five years, just in business rates relief! That’s before you take into account the cost of furlough and other Covid support.

Autumn Budget: Chancellor unveils £13.6bn business rates relief

The government's autumn budget has unveiled a number of initiatives to help support retailers.

www.retailgazette.co.uk

To alleviate concerns, the chancellor revealed support packages to help retail, hospitality and leisure businesses £13.6 billion over the next five years as they transition to their new bills.

I assume you must be seriously worried about this use of taxpayers’ money, given how a much £2bn railway revenue shortfall seems to bother you?

 

[Peter Sarf]

The difference is that one can choose to go to a pub or restaurant, or an alternative pub or restaurant. The railway is a public service. For a lot of journeys, there are no practical alternatives to rail.

As @43066 points out, the railways are in no way receiving "similar" level of support to what they were during the covid crisis and it is disingenuous to imply that they are.

Although retail and catering might not be quite so essential they did provide a large amount of employment.

I do believe the level of subsidy now is probably no where near what it was during the height of Covid. I did not intend to infer that it was similar - quite the opposite.

It does not necessarily follow that 20% of the subsidy should be removed or indeed that 20% of the service should be removed in the event that demand reduces by 20%. The DfT, treasury or other subsidising bodies such as Local Authorities will each need to evaluate what benefits they are buying for their subsidy and whether those benefits are still being delivered. They will also need to understand and forecast as best they can what will happen to the drivers of demand. Many services are the same frequency now as they were when demand was more than 20% lower (in London this would have been around 2010).

There are several benefits that lead to subsidy. Historically access to employment opportunity has been a key driver, especially for more rural rail routes. Promotion of employment in city centres, plus pollution and congestion reduction have tended to drive subsidy of commuter services. Some of these benefits may still hold at 20% lower demand.

Historically, demand is a function of the number of potential passengers and their trip rate. The former is a function of population growth or decline and the number of tourist visitors from elsewhere. In addition to the more recent influence of the ability and desire to work from home, the trip rate is a function of employment levels, real fares growth or decline, real incomes growth or decline and 'weighted' journey time (frequency, convenience, run time and crowding) Since government will be at least trying / hoping to improve these in the future, further recovery in passenger demand can be expected if they are successful (I accept that is quite a large 'if' for the moment)! Much as I personally like working from home, employers (including mine) and government are becoming aware that it does come at the cost of 'economies of agglomeration' and this is a further benefit of the rail subsidy.

Political factors are likely to play a part of course. While not really stated as a rationale, the DfT's revealed preference has been to make up much of the increased cost of the fragmented model of UK rail privatisation, while consistently expressing a desire to see these costs fall. British Rail may not have been totally effective at providing the quality, safety or volume of rail services the country desired, but at least in its last years, what those services it did provide, were operated more cost effectively. Subsidy may be protected by a strong aversion to voter's reaction to cuts in rail services and an apparent desire not to admit the present fragmented model of privatisation has been very expensive and is still falling short of delivering the originally stated goals.

I agree the costs and subsidies are not necessarily in line with carryings. Particularly as letting a service drop below a certain level could cause the attractiveness/usability of the service to drop off a cliff.

Nobody does this. You don't say "shall I use the car today or shall I sell it and exclusively take public transport from this day forward". You look at the comparative costs of doing one or the other for that journey. If the train is a stupid price, people will drive unless there is no alternative. Equally if you don't own a car already you don't say shall I take the train or buy a car for this journey instead.

Thats right. It is a big decision to go go without a car but once made people will likely stick with it. Conversely (and worryingly) the opposite can and will have happened during Covid. People have gone out and bought a car which they will not give up very quickly and they will now (and for the forseable) avoid rail travel as it undermines that decision.

I never said people did. But a failure to do so means it is unfair comparison to rail prices. That's just human nature - people normally think only about the immediate costs (partly why credit is popular even if more expensive in the long run), but it is something the railway has to contend with in price comaprisons.

I do believe thats true. Most will only compare the fuel cost with the rail fare. Rather than factoring the cost ow car ownership any that would think that deep will also be just as likely to think they need to justify the fixed costs of their car.

A pretty healthy % of households in London have no car. I do get a discount but only on national rail. Buses, the tube etc. is full price.

If you have chosen to live somewhere with no public transport, it’s hardly surprising you have to rely on a car! If you have the option of both (as I did) then ditching the car may well prove attractive.

As I live in Croydon and I am really borderline for car dependency. Its the long trips out of London and DIY that make my car essential. I can justify my seldom used car because it is a reliable car that is over 30 years old so no depreciation - in fact it is going up in value !. But most people are not going to run a cheap car. Also they are not going to evaluate the costs/benefits. From what I see most people who do not have a car in London don't do it out of choice - they cannot afford a car. But because it is London there is a good set of alternatives. So I would say that in London car ownership might be low but it is not out of choice but out of financial necessity.

Outside London housing is cheaper so perhaps there is more spare money for a car, but then the car is essential.

It's not really a choice as such, we were forced to move to where we could afford.

That is something I see for a lot of people. Live close to work or commute from a cheaper more distant home.

London is about the only part of the UK where you can live a full life with few restrictions without the use of a car, and even so I'd say a bicycle or taxis will be necessary some of the time. In the rest of the country provision is just too patchy unless you live a very constrained life indeed, spend a fortune on taxis, are fit enough to cycle a very long way daily or rely on lifts from other people. Sure, you can live without a car somewhere like Milton Keynes, but the quality of that life will be very poor unless you spend a fortune on taxis (and someone who doesn't have a car but does do that doesn't get to claim any sort of moral high ground because taxis and private cars cause the same pollution, indeed a diesel TX1 is far, far worse than a petrol Corsa*, for instance).

It wouldn't take much to sort that out either, for instance last trains an hour or two later would make a major difference to being able to e.g. go to the nearest big city to see a show or concert without driving. It's ludicrous, for instance, that the last Birmingham-Euston on a Saturday is so early - 2310 on a weekday is what it should be all week.

* I can't help but think the UK has got accessibility a bit wrong with taxis, basically mandating medium-sized minibuses to be driven round the whole time just in case there's a need to carry a wheelchair user once in a while, when tuk-tuk sized vehicles are more suited to the urban taxi's most common job of carrying one or maybe two people. There really must be a better way to balance accessibility and pollution/roadspace use.

Agree London is the big exception.

Last train to London from Cardiff is amazingly early last time I looked.
When I lived in Strood the last busses were well before pub closing time (11pm back in the day).

Interesting thoughts on lighter public transport. For Tuk-Tuks also include motorcycle taxis !.

 

[XIX7007177]

Friday always seemed a quiet day pre pandemic.

 

[DarloRich]

I now don't aim to use the fasts at all, they're too busy. I'm inclined to say they need to be 12-car south of Northampton on Saturdays and Sundays all day, for instance.

Snap - I attributed the LNWR passenger levels to the Avanti situation but I have used several of those peak hours recently and while they werent rammed to the level of people sitting in luggage racks ( like them olden days pre covid) they were cozy.

If boarding at Bletcho I will aim for an MKC starter and sacrifice speed for comfort. if only more started at Bletchley

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Mar 2023 ==

Friday always seemed a quiet day pre pandemic.

QuietER not quiet ( at least not on WCML) but these days it can be tumbleweed.

 

[Meerkat]

It’s an essential service, hence why it wasn’t shut down. That in no way implies that the government is pro-railway as you seem to be arguing. The fact they’re now cutting services as passenger numbers are recovering is rather good evidence of their priorities.

You say its essential, but big chunks of it isnt really (how do all the areas without a railway survive?).
You claim the government is determined to cut the railways, which would imply they don't consider those bits essential - therefore they could have made the cuts 'temporarily' during Covid and never brought them back.
Off peak fares are low to try to fill trains that exist anyway. If they are full it would suggest that BR policy should be followed and prices put up.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Friday always seemed a quiet day pre pandemic.

I think that Fridays were quieter (pre Covid) because of those who left early BUT also all those commuters who went straight to the nearest pub and left in dribs and drabs over the rest of the evening.

Snap - I attributed the LNWR passenger levels to the Avanti situation but I have used several of those peak hours recently and while they werent rammed to the level of people sitting in luggage racks ( like them olden days pre covid) they were cozy.

If boarding at Bletcho I will aim for an MKC starter and sacrifice speed for comfort. if only more started at Bletchley

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Mar 2023 ==


QuietER not quiet ( at least not on WCML) but these days it can be tumbleweed.

I found I preferred LNWR (or whatever they were called) over Virgin (now Avanti) Pre Covid as I preferred the ambience of a 350 over a Pendolino so I was never going to pay the premium. So I can believe you as what you say is just the next logical step !.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Snap - I attributed the LNWR passenger levels to the Avanti situation but I have used several of those peak hours recently and while they werent rammed to the level of people sitting in luggage racks ( like them olden days pre covid) they were cozy.

If boarding at Bletcho I will aim for an MKC starter and sacrifice speed for comfort. if only more started at Bletchley

I seem to recall most post HS2 proposals have the Tring services start back at Bletchley, the paths for which being created by putting semifasts onto the fast lines. But we'll be waiting a while!

 

[Peter Sarf]

You say its essential, but big chunks of it isnt really (how do all the areas without a railway survive?).
You claim the government is determined to cut the railways, which would imply they don't consider those bits essential - therefore they could have made the cuts 'temporarily' during Covid and never brought them back.
Off peak fares are low to try to fill trains that exist anyway. If they are full it would suggest that BR policy should be followed and prices put up.

Exactly this, and I am a little relieved/surprised they did not do those cutback while they could. So it follows the government wanted to support the railway.

---

I have to say, as someone who believed in most of the precautions at the time, I now look at it with hindsight and I am not sure. I think there is an argument that government have created more damage (long-term) than we bargained for by changing a lot of peoples habits (working From Home, use of public transport and retail+catering). Ironically those at the top who were leading us were not taking any of it seriously (I am looking at you BoJo).

 

[Bletchleyite]

Interesting thoughts on lighter public transport. For Tuk-Tuks also include motorcycle taxis !.

I'm a bit less sold on Asian style pillion motorbike taxis due to the safety issues, but e-bike tuk-tuk type things strike me as potentially viable across 20mph-limited cities like London. Parcel versions already appear to be in use by the likes of Amazon. You don't need a 3500kg GVW proto-minibus to carry one person at 20mph.

 

[43066]

As I live in Croydon and I am really borderline for car dependency. Its the long trips out of London and DIY that make my car essential. I can justify my seldom used car because it is a reliable car that is over 30 years old so no depreciation - in fact it is going up in value !. But most people are not going to run a cheap car. Also they are not going to evaluate the costs/benefits. From what I see most people who do not have a car in London don't do it out of choice - they cannot afford a car. But because it is London there is a good set of alternatives. So I would say that in London car ownership might be low but it is not out of choice but out of financial necessity.

You are probably right on the limit of where it’s possible to do without a car. I think @ar10642 is Haywards Heath (or similar) where I can understand that if you’re not near a station a car is essential.

Some in London will be unable to afford a car, but equally many *could* afford one, but view it as an unnecessary inconvenience.

You say its essential, but big chunks of it isnt really (how do all the areas without a railway survive?).

The recent strikes have cost billions. The economically significant parts of the country rely heavily upon the railway. Hence why the comments upthread about house prices in the south east being affected by proximity to stations.

You claim the government is determined to cut the railways, which would imply they don't consider those bits essential - therefore they could have made the cuts 'temporarily' during Covid and never brought them back.
Off peak fares are low to try to fill trains that exist anyway. If they are full it would suggest that BR policy should be followed and prices put up.

The government is cutting the railway, or are you denying that cuts are taking place? That should come as no surprise, they’re doing exactly what Grant Shapps set out in his speech last year.

I notice you’ve ignored my earlier questions; someone as concerned about public money as you claim to be should surely have an opinion on fuel duty relief and business rates relief.

 

[Peter Sarf]

I'm a bit less sold on Asian style pillion motorbike taxis due to the safety issues, but e-bike tuk-tuk type things strike me as potentially viable across 20mph-limited cities like London. Parcel versions already appear to be in use by the likes of Amazon. You don't need a 3500kg GVW proto-minibus to carry one person at 20mph.

I agree, the safety regime out there is somewhat different. Really a T-shirt, shorts and flip flops are the standard motorcycle attire !.

 

[Ken H]

Friday always seemed a quiet day pre pandemic.

WFH was a thing pre-pandemic. Covid just gave it the impetus to expand by a lot. People were sliding out of coming into work for odd days at my clients way back in 2015. Any old excuse would do because management did it too!

I was WFH back in 2010. 1 day in work a fortnight.

It aint new.

 

[ar10642]

You are probably right on the limit of where it’s possible to do without a car. I think @ar10642 is Haywards Heath (or similar) where I can understand that if you’re not near a station a car is essential.

I used to live there and got used to having an excellent rail service on tap. We did live there without a car for a while (it broke in a rather expensive way) and whilst it was doable it was quite annoying. Out in the village 7 miles away it's essential to have a car as the bus services are not very good, although better than some other villages, and taxis are very expensive. Uckfield is probably now my closest station to get to London but the service looks so slow and infrequent I have yet to use it.

 

[Meerkat]

The economically significant parts of the country rely heavily upon the railway. Hence why the comments upthread about house prices in the south east being affected by proximity to stations.

Commuting is one of the more essential parts of the railway. But the outer commuting is one of the least subsidised parts, and personally I think more thought should go into whether the subsidy is justifiable considering the negative effects.
There are lots of cuts they could have made during covid without affecting commuting too badly.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

South Eastern senior managers make some interesting comments in this article

https://853.london/2023/03/22/link-...million-to-bring-back-southeastern-boss-says/

White insisted he did not want the railway to go into “managed decline”, and said that usage was growing at a more healthy rate than expected after flatlining during 2022.

“We are growing again and people are returning to the office,” he said. “We think some employers are changing their [working from home] policies.

“We don’t want to suppress demand and we don’t want to turn people away from using our railway. We want to promote the railway with all its green potential, we want to play our part in a growing railway.

“We are financially constrained at this moment in time. We do want to add those services where they are most needed and we want a busier railway in 2023 than it was in 2022.”

 

[43066]

Commuting is one of the more essential parts of the railway.

Leisure travel is another “essential part of the railway”, and an essential part of the economy.

But the outer commuting is one of the least subsidised parts, and personally I think more thought should go into whether the subsidy is justifiable considering the negative effects.

I have no idea what you’re trying to say here. What should be asked is whether the cuts are justifiable at a time when passengers are returning.

There are lots of cuts they could have made during covid without affecting commuting too badly.

There were significant timetable cuts during Covid. We are no longer “during Covid”.

South Eastern senior managers make some interesting comments in this article

https://853.london/2023/03/22/link-...million-to-bring-back-southeastern-boss-says/

The government will be hoping that the cuts mean numbers don’t grow quickly, of course!

 

[Horizon22]

but people do this all the time. They will drive past Manchester airport to catch a flight from Heathrow without a thought of the cost of getting to Heathrow. Or they will drive to an Aldi in the next town 16 miles away because the Waitrose where they live is too expensive.

Of course they do, but it doesn’t make my point invalid.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Mar 2023 ==

Friday always seemed a quiet day pre pandemic.

Somewhat but it ramps up again and is more consistent off-peak and is noticeable by how many suitcases you see around.