Colne-Skipton

[L+Y]

I realise this isn't going to happen any time soon...

However- assuming a line was reinstated with a comparable layout to the actual Copy Pit route (double track, at least hourly service, but no electrification), would a Blackburn-Leeds via Skipton service stand a chance of washing its face financially?

And to put the cat amongst the pigeons a little- would I be right to make a guess that a revived Colne-Skipton route would probably see better takings than the S&C and Little North Western routes put together?

 

[yoyothehobo]

Nope.

Or with a bit more explanation.

Nope. but written again

Should Skipton to Colne reopen with single track ?

Considering the current financial situation, would you rather (if you support it of course) reopen Skipton to Colne single track (with a passing loop if needed) with provision for double tracking later or double track all the way from Burnley from day 1 ?

www.railforums.co.uk

 

[Bertie the bus]

If they don't electrify it how are they going to accommodate HS2 services?

 

[yoyothehobo]

True, would be an important diversionary route...obviously

 

[30907]

And to put the cat amongst the pigeons a little- would I be right to make a guess that a revived Colne-Skipton route would probably see better takings than the S&C and Little North Western routes put together?

Possibly, by abstracting traffic from Copy Pit and counting a significant share of Leeds-Skipton and intermediately.
Discounting those, you are left with Nelson/Colne to Leeds and East Lancs to Airedale.
I suspect the revenue would be greater than a second tph over Copy Pit, but I doubt it would cover the operating subsidy.
And then there's the capital cost.

 

[Neptune]

Another few months pass. Another Colne - Skipton thread appears.

In all fairness the railway landscape has changed significantly in the last few months however for SELRAP it’s changed to make something that is highly unlikely to even less likely than before.

I’ve said it so many times that extending the Hull - Halifax service to Blackburn allows a half hourly frequency from Leeds - Blackburn and all stops in between and allows for a stop at the island platform at Rose Grove on the nearest connecting service to the Colne train each hour.

SELRAP have this odd habit of making the business case ever more unrealistic (a Trans Pennine freight route which effectively goes on one of the worlds biggest detours for goodness sake). They’d be better campaigning for something a lot cheaper and a hell of a lot more realistic and achievable.

 

[Halifaxlad]

You would struggle to find spare paths down the Aire Valley!

Ideally anything needs to be an extension of existing electric services to Skipton!

Before any new line is constructed you really want to be electrifying the line from Preston to Colne

Failing that it may be possible to double track the existing line to Colne as far as Burnley Central but have it as a separate electrified single line running independently.

Blackburn would clearly be out of the question without electrification!

 

[Bertie the bus]

I’ve said it so many times that extending the Hull - Halifax service to Blackburn allows a half hourly frequency from Leeds - Blackburn and all stops in between and allows for a stop at the island platform at Rose Grove on the nearest connecting service to the Colne train each hour.

I have had similar thoughts about that but extending to Preston. I’ve not used the service since Covid but was a regular prior to that and by far the largest flow from the west of the Pennines to the east was to/from Preston. It used to have pretty decent loadings even off peak but despite other routes having had or planned to have increased frequencies the attitude to the Preston – Leeds route, despite serving a few significant towns, seems to be we might as well continue with it because it’s there but who really cares when it doesn’t serve Manchester?

 

[Halifaxlad]

I have had similar thoughts about that but extending to Preston. I’ve not used the service since Covid but was a regular prior to that and by far the largest flow from the west of the Pennines to the east was to/from Preston. It used to have pretty decent loadings even off peak but despite other routes having had or planned to have increased frequencies the attitude to the Preston – Leeds route, despite serving a few significant towns, seems to be we might as well continue with it because it’s there but who really cares when it doesn’t serve Manchester?

Wasn't this service simply extended to Halifax to remove the need to terminate it at Leeds and because its much more convenient to run into the turnback siding at Halifax rather than back in and out of the sidings at Bradford ?

Considering extending this any further than Halifax wlll impact upon timings I suspect until the line East of Leeds is four tracked it may not even be practical.

I may be a bit bias in saying this but ideally Halifax should be kept as the terminus for this service and the disused third platform brought back into use so P2 can stable terminating services such as this!

 

[Bertie the bus]

Considering extending this any further than Halifax wlll impact upon timings I suspect until the line East of Leeds is four tracked it may not even be practical.

What has extending west of Halifax got to do with the track layout east of Leeds?

 

[Neptune]

Wasn't this service simply extended to Halifax to remove the need to terminate it at Leeds and because its much more convenient to run into the turnback siding at Halifax rather than back in and out of the sidings at Bradford ?

Always planned to go beyond Leeds. Not sure what sidings you’re on about at Bradford Interchange? You’d just turn back in a platform if you didn’t go to Halifax.

Considering extending this any further than Halifax wlll impact upon timings I suspect until the line East of Leeds is four tracked it may not even be practical.

The idea is to extend the existing service beyond Halifax. It wouldn’t change anything east of Leeds as it would use the same path HUL - HFX.

I may be a bit bias in saying this but ideally Halifax should be kept as the terminus for this service and the disused third platform brought back into use so P2 can stable terminating services such as this!

So the reason you’d not extend it to East Lancs and thus providing better connectivity, is so you can spend huge and pointless amounts of money to turn a service in a platform rather than a siding?

 

[Ken H]

Skipton - Colne is a non starter. The hourly transdev Pendle WIZZ hardly needs a double decker. Colne is a non-place. Dont see the demand.

 

[tbtc]

Truly the idea that will never die, despite the evidence and the worsening business case… Some people just won’t listen

I’d recommend the SELRAP website to anyone interested in “sexing up” a thin justification for something, even the great Alastair Campbell could learn a thing or two

It’s so wonderfully specific about some things (three services an hour from Skipton to Colne, Direct trains to Castlefield and presumably Manchester Airport, freight from the North Sea to the Irish Sea) and yet vague (quite how much electrification of the wider region will be required doesn’t seem to be specified, nor the other infrastructure improvements need to accommodate all of these new services, e.g. single track sections South of Blackburn)… all at the same time as presenting some very dubious claims (e.g. the 250,000 people in East Lancashire could finally have a direct train to Bradford or Leeds if only we spent hundreds of millions on this route because nobody has noticed the existing hourly service bus Copy Pit!)

But we’ll be discussing it again in a few months time, just like the current thread about reopening the GC through the East Midlands and the recent suggestions that we sped the Liverpool to Norwich journeys up by reopening the line through Bakewell… It’s almost Like, the tougher the economics of maintaining the railway (with rumoured cuts across the board in a few months), the more people are desperately clinging on to quaint reopening projects

Wasn't this service simply extended to Halifax to remove the need to terminate it at Leeds and because its much more convenient to run into the turnback siding at Halifax rather than back in and out of the sidings at Bradford ?

I thought that it was more about splitting the Bradford - Huddersfield service into a stand alone one, so something needed to plug the gap in the Leeds - Bradford - Halifax bit of the route, hence extending the Hull route west of Leeds (when it was a Selby stopper it used to run through to the Calder Valley anyway)

It’d be much better to extend this west of the hills to Lancashire than to reopen the Colne line or spend any more money propping up the Bentham route

 

[61653 HTAFC]

I have had similar thoughts about that but extending to Preston. I’ve not used the service since Covid but was a regular prior to that and by far the largest flow from the west of the Pennines to the east was to/from Preston. It used to have pretty decent loadings even off peak but despite other routes having had or planned to have increased frequencies the attitude to the Preston – Leeds route, despite serving a few significant towns, seems to be we might as well continue with it because it’s there but who really cares when it doesn’t serve Manchester?

This may be slightly off-topic, but seeing as there's more chance of me winning the lottery (which I don't play) than of Skipton to Colne reopening, it probably doesn't matter so much...

I've suggested before that the Hull to Halifax should have a Low Moor stop added and be extended to Huddersfield, rather than wasting two units on the Huddersfield to Bradford shuttle. You'd save a unit (one added to the existing Halifax circuit) which could be used to lengthen the existing Copy Pit service.

 

[Bald Rick]

Rather than getting drawn into the rather one sided debate about the line itself (my views are well known, and I’m looking forward to receiving my bet winnings), I’ll answer the questions:

However- assuming a line was reinstated with a comparable layout to the actual Copy Pit route (double track, at least hourly service, but no electrification), would a Blackburn-Leeds via Skipton service stand a chance of washing its face financially?

Assuming you mean would a service on the line (as you have specified) take more in revenue than it costs to provide, then the answer is no. As every Northern service costs more to provide than the revenue generated (source, Northern’s MD), even those that are well patronised, then it’s reasonable to assume this won’t either.

And to put the cat amongst the pigeons a little- would I be right to make a guess that a revived Colne-Skipton route would probably see better takings than the S&C and Little North Western routes put together?

Possibly. Whilst the S&C has relatively few trains, the average yield per passenger would be rather higher than Colne - Skipton.

 

[quantinghome]

SELRAP have put a price tag on the line reopening of £298 million.

https://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/news/23388186.colne-skipton-group-draws-298m-budget-new-line/

This seems more grounded in reality then the previous figures we've seen bandied around.

 

[yoyothehobo]

Still doesnt seem particularly grounded in reality and i can think of a lot better things to do with £300 million on the network

 

[Neptune]

Can I just say that the AGM picture shows just 18 people in it (19 including the photographer) and I suspect the vast majority of them remember the old line and are simply in it for the nostalgia ride.

Just think if they bid for money towards a modest upgrade of Copy Pit allowing for a second WY - East Lancs service and possible extra freight paths and that might be a bit more realistic in this day and age.

 

[zwk500]

SELRAP have put a price tag on the line reopening of £298 million.

It'll be more than that. It always is.

This seems more grounded in reality then the previous figures we've seen bandied around.

It's an interesting premise. In order to repay this line on 50-year bonds you need the line to boost the economy of Leeds and the surrounding towns by an additional £1.30 for every £1,000 currently generated [EDITED]*.

Working below:
£300m on 50-year bonds at about 3.5% yield means you're repaying £10.5m extra back. bonds are slightly different in how they pay off but for simplicity's sake that means you're paying 310.5/50 = £6m a year back from the 'increased economic activity'. (For the purposes of this we're assuming that all operating expenses are covered from the fares).
Leeds city council claims it's economy is worth £65bn to the country, Tax:GDP rate in the Uk is c.27.5%, so Leeds pays roughly £17.875bn to the exchequer. So you'd need a 3% uptick in tax revenue. To get the 3%/£6m extra tax, you need £86.8m extra economic activity (reversing the GDP:tax ratio), which equates to a 13% 0.13%* increase in the economic activity of Leeds.

Obviously, not all this economic activity would be in Leeds, but the majority of it would, and Leeds is the most valuable local economy the line can serve. So we're looking at a 10% uplift in Leeds and a 5% uplift in Skipton, Burnley, Preston and maybe Bradford.*

* - Edited after it was pointed out my end calculation was out by a factor of 100. Always show your working, peer review is helpful!

 

[quantinghome]

It'll be more than that. It always is.

Probably. But it's in the neighbourhood of reality rather than the previous "we can do this in one weekend with a couple of wheelbarrows" type estimate (I exaggerate).

It's an interesting premise. In order to repay this line on 50-year bonds you need the line to boost the economy of Leeds by around 10% and the other towns served by about 5%. Is commuting from Colne really going to stoke Leeds by a factor of 1 in 10?

Working below:
£300m on 50-year bonds at about 3.5% yield means you're repaying £10.5m extra back. bonds are slightly different in how they pay off but for simplicity's sake that means you're paying 310.5/50 = £6m a year back from the 'increased economic activity'. (For the purposes of this we're assuming that all operating expenses are covered from the fares).
Leeds city council claims it's economy is worth £65bn to the country, Tax:GDP rate in the Uk is c.27.5%, so Leeds pays roughly £17.875bn to the exchequer. So you'd need a 3% uptick in tax revenue. To get the 3%/£6m extra tax, you need £86.8m extra economic activity (reversing the GDP:tax ratio), which equates to a 13% increase in the economic activity of Leeds.
Obviously, not all this economic activity would be in Leeds, but the majority of it would, and Leeds is the most valuable local economy the line can serve. So we're looking at a 10% uplift in Leeds and a 5% uplift in Skipton, Burnley, Preston and maybe Bradford.

I'd recheck your percentages. £86.8m / £65bn is not 13%. But regardless, Skipton-Colne is unlikely to generate any significant increased economic activity.

 

[zwk500]

I'd recheck your percentages. £86.8m / £65bn is not 13%. But regardless, Skipton-Colne is unlikely to generate any significant increased economic activity.

Right you are! I'm out by a factor of 100. The correct percentage is 0.13% That's still a significant uplift in the scheme of things.

 

[Philip]

Reopening the line would be a boost for Manchester/North West-Skipton connections; currently anyone from the NW wanting a day out to Skipton on the train would need to make a rather roundabout journey through Leeds, with at least one change. The Clitheroe could run with two units as far as Blackburn and then split, with the other half going to Skipton. Possibly the Wigan-Manchester-Copy Pit service as an alternative, if a reversal at Rose Grove would be possible?

I'm guessing that Skipton leans predominantly towards Leeds, but I bet there is some potential untapped demand for travel to Manchester, Liverpool and the North West.

 

[Ken H]

Reopening the line would be a boost for Manchester/North West-Skipton connections; currently anyone from the NW wanting a day out to Skipton on the train would need to make a rather roundabout journey through Leeds, with at least one change. The Clitheroe could run with two units as far as Blackburn and then split, with the other half going to Skipton. Possibly the Wigan-Manchester-Copy Pit service as an alternative, if a reversal at Rose Grove would be possible?

I'm guessing that Skipton leans predominantly towards Leeds, but I bet there is some potential untapped demand for travel to Manchester, Liverpool and the North West.

There is a bus between Skipton and Colne. And it goes through Barnoldswick - But that is changing - check on the Transdev topic in the buses section.

 

[zwk500]

Reopening the line would be a boost for Manchester/North West-Skipton connections; currently anyone from the NW wanting a day out to Skipton on the train would need to make a rather roundabout journey through Leeds, with at least one change. The Clitheroe could run with two units as far as Blackburn and then split, with the other half going to Skipton. Possibly the Wigan-Manchester-Copy Pit service as an alternative, if a reversal at Rose Grove would be possible?

I'm guessing that Skipton leans predominantly towards Leeds, but I bet there is some potential untapped demand for travel to Manchester, Liverpool and the North West.

But is it enough? Specifically, does it get near £80m/yr?

 

[30907]

Reopening the line would be a boost for Manchester/North West-Skipton connections; currently anyone from the NW wanting a day out to Skipton on the train would need to make a rather roundabout journey through Leeds, with at least one change. The Clitheroe could run with two units as far as Blackburn and then split, with the other half going to Skipton. Possibly the Wigan-Manchester-Copy Pit service as an alternative, if a reversal at Rose Grove would be possible?

I'm guessing that Skipton leans predominantly towards Leeds, but I bet there is some potential untapped demand for travel to Manchester, Liverpool and the North West.

Probably, but if I wanted a day out in a pleasant market town from Manchester I'd go to Clitheroe - or splash out and go to Skipton via Leeds which is as quick as via Colne would be.
And BTW I know both towns reasonably well.

 

[Bald Rick]

SELRAP have put a price tag on the line reopening of £298 million.

https://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/news/23388186.colne-skipton-group-draws-298m-budget-new-line/

This seems more grounded in reality then the previous figures we've seen bandied around.

Almost a decade ago I wrote the following about this project:

£180m-£250m plus stations plus optimism bias is my guess.

Post #75

Re-openening Colne to Skipton, 'Financially Viable'

Would the Skipton to Colne alignment (if double tracked and electrified) from the beginning be suitable for 90mph running like the Airedale line which leads to it from Leeds and Bradford?

www.railforums.co.uk

Given that £80m of the £298m* is risk that gives a spot cost of £218m. Which is remarkably close to the £215m mid point of my estimate. From 9 years ago.

Yes I know, no one likes a smart ar*e.

* At this stage, risk of a project of this type should be 64% of the spot cost, which in this case would be £140m. so the £298m should be £368m.

Can I just say that the AGM picture shows just 18 people in it (19 including the photographer) and I suspect the vast majority of them remember the old line and are simply in it for the nostalgia ride.

Yes but Aretha Franklin looks particularly emotional. “Ain’t No Way”…


It is now not possible for this line to open before 2030, as I bet £500 over 12 years ago (in one of my first posts on these pages). So can SELRAP please pay up, as my gas bill has just landed.

Colne to Skipton Rail Project

They don't have to be new jobs necessarily - just the usual turn over of existing work. And there's also the possibility of work opportunities in Leeds from Colne, which would likely be quicker via Skipton. Looking at NRE, the leg between Burnley and Leeds alone via the existing route is...

www.railforums.co.uk

 

[ian1944]

Extract from SELRAP chair's address: "Colne is relatively lively but I went to Nelson with a person from the Office of Rail Regulation. They said Nelson was 30 years behind. That is why we want this link." Seems as good a reason as anything else being cited.

On a probability of ever happening scale, how does Colne-Skipton rank with Hawick-Caslisle?

 

[Bertie the bus]

SELRAP have put a price tag on the line reopening of £298 million.

https://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/news/23388186.colne-skipton-group-draws-298m-budget-new-line/

This seems more grounded in reality then the previous figures we've seen bandied around.

That article just regurgitates the same old rubbish they have been spouting for years. Some examples:

It would create fast passenger trains between Pendle, Burnley, Hyndburn and Leeds and new northern freight routes.

It would create neither.

It is supported by businesses including electricity generator Drax, Peel Ports, which owns various sea ports including the new Liverpool 2 deepwater port and Heysham Port, and the Skipton Building Society.

As I've mentioned on previous threads Drax and Peel Ports support SELRAP's claim that biomass trains could be significantly sped up if the line is reopened but one only has to look at WTTs from when there was Anglo-Scottish coal services and extrapolate to see that those claims are completely false.

This included trains from near Skipton being forced miles up the Settle-Carlisle line to near the landmark Ribblehead Viaduct before heading southwards again to get to Leyland in Lancashire.

Seriously? They are using the Leyland aggregate flow to further their cause? My understanding is it is only a short term flow anyway in connection with the new M55 link road.

There are probably other things in that article which are nonsense but I got bored reading it.

 

[Neptune]

Extract from SELRAP chair's address: "Colne is relatively lively but I went to Nelson with a person from the Office of Rail Regulation. They said Nelson was 30 years behind. That is why we want this link." Seems as good a reason as anything else being cited.

Seems like a grasping at straws reason. Surely anyone can see that Nelson’s woes cannot be put at the door of a lack of rail link to Skipton. After all, it has a direct rail link to Burnley, Blackburn, Preston and 1 change for Bradford, Leeds, Rochdale and Manchester. It’s woes are evidently not due to a lack of connectivity to far far bigger and more important places than Skipton.

On a probability of ever happening scale, how does Colne-Skipton rank with Hawick-Caslisle?

Very similar I imagine. Sod all chance.

 

[Bald Rick]

On a probability of ever happening scale, how does Colne-Skipton rank with Hawick-Caslisle?

exactly the same.