Coach prices during rail strikes

[markymark2000]

2. National Express has a range of fares from Bournemouth to London from £5 one way up to £35 one way. The price you pay depends upon how far in advance you book the number of seats already sold and the predicted demand. Due to a train strike demand goes up 4 fold. National Express offers all the remaining seats at £35 one way. What action should the CMA take? Has National Express actually put the price up bearing in mind that it will now sell a seat for the same price as it would have done if there was no strike?

The online fares would be harder to prove that they have been unfair. The on the bus fares however could likely be argued because there is proof of the standard fare (which applies irrespective of loadings) and the strike day fares. If the railways decided 'It's London Marathon day, we are going to up the price of all of our standard, on the day fares', there would be uproar. You appreciate advance fares are more limited and when they are gone, they are gone but at worst case scenario, the highest price is fixed and shouldn't change. That's the issue. The upper limits are being changed to charge higher fares.

 

[Starmill]

The online fares would be harder to prove that they have been unfair. The on the bus fares however could likely be argued because there is proof of the standard fare (which applies irrespective of loadings) and the strike day fares. If the railways decided 'It's London Marathon day, we are going to up the price of all of our standard, on the day fares', there would be uproar. You appreciate advance fares are more limited and when they are gone, they are gone but at worst case scenario, the highest price is fixed and shouldn't change. That's the issue. The upper limits are being changed to charge higher fares.

The train operators are hypothetically at liberty to withdraw all non-regulated fares at any time, without notice or giving a reason. Therefore if they wanted to they could choose to bar them from specific dates. This even used to happen with Groupsave. Maybe don't give them ideas though

 

[route101]

A Trip I make regularly with national express is normally £3 When purchased a few days out with a discount card.

I booked a month and a half in advance thinking seats might fill for this exact reason and the cost was £7.90 ( normally the day before or an on the day cost) and the fare has risen even further now!!

What service is that?

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I have noticed the services sell out quicker. Flixbus prices can go quite high on the anglo - Scottish services, bit like surge pricing.

 

[Joshua_Harman]

Luton Airport To Victoria with the grey coach card 3rd off

 

[miklcct]

Just wondering, I can't be the only person who has noticed that National Express's and Megabus's attempt at profiteering during these strikes?
I understand they both use demand based pricing, so I fully expect fares to be higher than normal when people can't travel by train, but it feels way OTT to me.
As an example, Bournemouth to London is £33 per person next Monday, but has most journeys under £10 (and as low as £5) for the Monday following.

Both companies seem to be putting up the prices so much that I wonder if this is actually have the reverse effect than what they want? No firm data on that of course, but I was travelling during the early October strikes from London to Bristol and due to the M4 being awful there were quite a lot of delays, so to clear people out of Victoria station NatEx put two or three coach loads of people on one coach - but surely them being able to do that must mean they hadn't actually sold that many tickets for each coach (which kind of defeats the idea they are selling tickets at a higher price due to demand).

I have unfortunately become a victim of the train strike that my train trip to Bournemouth on 5th November can no longer take place, and now have to find alternative transport, which the only option is the coach.

National Express is now selling all services at the standard fare £33 each way, while Megabus still have differentiated fares. Given that National Express and Megabus are direct competitors on this route, it is very clear that National Express is profiteering on the train strike, while Megabus doesn't.

 

[Peter Sarf]

I have unfortunately become a victim of the train strike that my train trip to Bournemouth on 5th November can no longer take place, and now have to find alternative transport, which the only option is the coach.

National Express is now selling all services at the standard fare £33 each way, while Megabus still have differentiated fares. Given that National Express and Megabus are direct competitors on this route, it is very clear that National Express is profiteering on the train strike, while Megabus doesn't.

National Express have always been more expensive than Megabus but offer a better coach and better service including staff at destinations.

Nowadays I tend to use National Express more than Megabus as the price difference is not so great. Also for London/Cardiff National Express is a more direct route now that all Megabus services are via Heathrow.

I am avoiding the rail strike days.

 

[Starmill]

I have unfortunately become a victim of the train strike that my train trip to Bournemouth on 5th November can no longer take place, and now have to find alternative transport, which the only option is the coach.

National Express is now selling all services at the standard fare £33 each way, while Megabus still have differentiated fares. Given that National Express and Megabus are direct competitors on this route, it is very clear that National Express is profiteering on the train strike, while Megabus doesn't.

Is that so? Are you saying that there's no possibility of any reason for National Express to charge more, other than their desire to make supernormal profits?

What kind of profit margins are National Express going to be making on these prices?

 

[miklcct]

Is that so? Are you saying that there's no possibility of any reason for National Express to charge more, other than their desire to make supernormal profits?

What kind of profit margins are National Express going to be making on these prices?

National Express and Megabus have near-identical product offerings (the major difference is that Megabus stops at Heathrow en-route, whole National Express may or may not stop at Southampton or Ringwood).

If there are two departures at the same time, one from each company, they are effectively identical offerings and the price should be identical if they use an identical pricing strategy.

 

[Starmill]

National Express and Megabus have near-identical product offerings

You're certain of that? In terms of quality and customer experience there's no difference?

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If there are two departures at the same time, one from each company, they are effectively identical offerings and the price should be identical if they use an identical pricing strategy.

Seems far more likely to me that you just don't like National Express and want to have a go at them.

That's absolutely your right, for the avoidence of doubt. But please be honest.

 

[miklcct]

Seems far more likely to me that you just don't like National Express and want to have a go at them.

That's absolutely your right, for the avoidence of doubt. But please be honest.

I have bought a megabus ticket for travel on 5th November simply because it's more than £10 cheaper than National Express.

To me, a coach is a coach. As long as they both have 2+2 seating and run on the same route, the operator makes no difference to me. I travelled on National Express and FlixBus in the past and there was no difference in the offering at all.

 

[Starmill]

To me, a coach is a coach.

Really? So in any conditions and with any staff your view is it's worth exactly the same price?

It's up to you of course, but you made a big accusation of National Express just now so it seems reasonable to question some of your assumptions.

How do you know that Megabus haven't just decided to run significantly more capacity or take on much higher commercial risk? Megabus might end up with a slightly better profit margin than National Express for all you know.

 

[GusB]

I have bought a megabus ticket for travel on 5th November simply because it's more than £10 cheaper than National Express.

To me, a coach is a coach. As long as they both have 2+2 seating and run on the same route, the operator makes no difference to me. I travelled on National Express and FlixBus in the past and there was no difference in the offering at all.

You have a choice, though. You've indicated several times on the forum that you're "price sensitive", and that's fine. You've booked a journey with a cheaper operator and you have made it quite clear that it makes no difference to you which one you travel with. What on earth is there to grumble about?

 

[miklcct]

So in any conditions and with any staff your view is it's worth exactly the same price?

If the vehicle configuration is identical, the route, departure time and identical time is identical, they are worth exactly the same price no matter which operator it is.

 

[Starmill]

If the vehicle configuration is identical, the route, departure time and identical time is identical, they are worth exactly the same price no matter which operator it is.

That may be your view but unfortunately it's not the view of National Express and Megabus. How are you going to reconcile that? It seems that you'd prefer a system of centrally-controlled prices for the whole country? I'd note that this is fundamentally incompatible with the free-market economy used by most Western countries.

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You have a choice, though. You've indicated several times on the forum that you're "price sensitive", and that's fine. You've booked a journey with a cheaper operator and you have made it quite clear that it makes no difference to you which one you travel with. What on earth is there to grumble about?

Precisely. If everyone thinks as @miklcct does, they can be certain that everyone will use Megabus and nobody will want to travel with National Express, so they'll go out of business very soon. Surely that's a good thing overall. Or, alternatively, maybe not everyone thinks as @miklcct does.

 

[GusB]

If the vehicle configuration is identical, the route, departure time and identical time is identical, they are worth exactly the same price no matter which operator it is.

It's clear that National Express is confident enough that it will be able to sell seats at the current price (£33.00 London to Bournemouth), otherwise there would have been cheaper fares available. The fact that there are rail strikes on that day means that demand will be higher, so those seats will be worth more. For better or worse, that's how the market works.

 

[miklcct]

It seems that you'd prefer a system of centrally-controlled prices for the whole country? I'd note that this is fundamentally incompatible with the free-market economy used by most Western countries.

No. I don't mean that. I mean that the companies are better off investing in technologies, for example, web scrapers, which automatically price-match the competitors on the same routes.

Or, in this case, National Express is confident that the cheaper seats by Megabus will sell out before the departure, while leaving enough time for their £33 seats to be sold as well.

 

[Starmill]

No. I don't mean that. I mean that the companies are better off investing in technologies, for example, web scrapers, which automatically price-match the competitors on the same routes.

Or, in this case, National Express is confident that the cheaper seats by Megabus will sell out before the departure, while leaving enough time for their £33 seats to be sold as well.

National Express may be confident that other customers take a different view to you though. They may be confident in their own quality and service that people will pay more for it.

Who are you to say they're wrong?

 

[Peter Sarf]

National Express and Megabus have near-identical product offerings (the major difference is that Megabus stops at Heathrow en-route, whole National Express may or may not stop at Southampton or Ringwood).

If there are two departures at the same time, one from each company, they are effectively identical offerings and the price should be identical if they use an identical pricing strategy.

Their products have differences, I know I use both.

I have bought a megabus ticket for travel on 5th November simply because it's more than £10 cheaper than National Express.

To me, a coach is a coach. As long as they both have 2+2 seating and run on the same route, the operator makes no difference to me. I travelled on National Express and FlixBus in the past and there was no difference in the offering at all.

Well I use both and I know the difference. I will not always go for the cheapest unless it is cheap enough.

If the vehicle configuration is identical, the route, departure time and identical time is identical, they are worth exactly the same price no matter which operator it is.

The National Express coaches are better quality. Megabus do use just any old operator at the drop of a hat. Also it is my experience that Megabus can be more adversely affected by delays on the journey before mine thus affecting my departure time.

No. I don't mean that. I mean that the companies are better off investing in technologies, for example, web scrapers, which automatically price-match the competitors on the same routes.

Or, in this case, National Express is confident that the cheaper seats by Megabus will sell out before the departure, while leaving enough time for their £33 seats to be sold as well.

Not if they are not competing with the same product. If you were right then why don't Megabus run more coaches and kill of National Express. Answer because enough people want the better service. I am not complaining about Megabus and I will use them if the price difference is too great but much less now they go via Heathrow.

National Express may be confident that other customers take a different view to you though. They may be confident in their own quality and service that people will pay more for it.

Who are you to say they're wrong?

Correct. For example the FACT that National Express have staff on the ground at the stops outside London. Magabus save money by having nothing - just a post sticking out of the ground. For Cardiff there is the staffed ticket office at Sophia gardens (the main stop) with other staff helping passengers - that is National Express. For Megabus there are no staff on the ground and not even a bus shelter - just a post in the pavement and that is not very reassuring when the coach you are waiting for is late.

 

[Starmill]

Correct. For example the FACT that National Express have staff on the ground at the stops outside London. Magabus save money by having nothing - just a post sticking out of the ground. For Cardiff there is the staffed ticket office at Sophia gardens (the main stop) with other staff helping passengers - that is National Express. For Megabus there are no staff on the ground and not even a bus shelter - just a post in the pavement and that is not very reassuring when the coach you are waiting for is late.

Indeed. Don't NX also provide a media server onboard which isn't available on Megabus? Some people might value that. They may also value other aesthetic changes such as the quality of the interiors. National Express also accept payment by Clearpay and offer better discounts to coachcard holders. National Express also have a zero alcohol policy and require testing before the driver sets off. Obviously this goes beyond the legal minimum requirement and I imagine Megabus doesn't do this? Finally National Express have a policy of the driver loading your cases for you if you ask. On Megabus you might need to load your case yourself.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Indeed. Don't NX also provide a media server onboard which isn't available on Megabus? Some people might value that. They may also value other aesthetic changes such as the quality of the interiors. National Express also accept payment by Clearpay and offer better discounts to coachcard holders. National Express also have a zero alcohol policy and require testing before the driver sets off. Obviously this goes beyond the legal minimum requirement and I imagine Megabus doesn't do this? Finally National Express have a policy of the driver loading your cases for you if you ask. On Megabus you might need to load your case yourself.

Indeed, a National Express driver does seem to do more. The Wi-Fi and power sockets often work better on National Express. This my partner finds critical whereas I prefer to look at (through) the large screen(s) to the side(s) and front.

 

[Goldfish62]

As a commercial business that doesn’t receive subsidy, and therefore lacks the “public service” aspect of the railway, surely that’s a perfectly rational response to the situation? They are clearly hoping to snare railway passengers who will be willing and able to pay more than most traditional coach customers. Why would you expect them to do anything else?

Bournemouth to London for £33 is (I assume) still considerably cheaper than the train would be in normal circumstances?

Agreed. And unlike the railways they received not a penny of government assistance during Covid so had to effectively mothball the business for a while.

The whole situation cost them dearly so they need to exploit every opportunity to regain revenue. It's clearly working because they've reported a 33% increase in revenue for the three months to September.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Agreed. And unlike the railways they received not a penny of government assistance during Covid so had to effectively mothball the business for a while.

The whole situation cost them dearly so they need to exploit every opportunity to regain revenue. It's clearly working because they've reported a 33% increase in revenue for the three months to September.

Agreed. Coach carryings seem to be roughly back to the levels I experienced before Covid-19. Often full and similar frequency. But there will be a lot of catching up to do as they were never more than half full for a long period.

 

[route101]

Agreed. Coach carryings seem to be roughly back to the levels I experienced before Covid-19. Often full and similar frequency. But there will be a lot of catching up to do as they were never more than half full for a long period.

The megabus network seems smaller now. National Express cut the cross country routes in half at Birmingham.

 

[Starmill]

The megabus network seems smaller now. National Express cut the cross country routes in half at Birmingham.

Indeed, the whole industry is definitely substantially smaller now.

 

[deltic]

National Express made a loss of £13m in the UK in the first six months of 2022. UK passengers are effectively being subsidised by National Express' US and Spanish passengers which is where they are profitable.

 

[dan5324]

Indeed, the whole industry is definitely substantially smaller now.

A substantial amount of drivers have left the industry is why.

 

[Goldfish62]

A substantial amount of drivers have left the industry is why.

No, it's because Megabus and National Express made huge losses due to Covid. The networks were slimmed down before the current driver shortages started biting.

 

[dan5324]

No, it's because Megabus and National Express made huge losses due to Covid. The networks were slimmed down before the current driver shortages started biting.

No. The current slimming down is mainly due to shortages. There are many routes and stops that the company want to bring back, but are unable to due to shortages.

The network was gonna be trimmed down to remove journeys that were rarely full. But there were never ever any plans to trim to the network to what it is currently.

 

[markymark2000]

I of course can't state sources for commercial reasons but I believe NatEx have put out more routes to contractors and companies who don't already run NatEx have put in bids so if new firms can be onboarded, there is plenty of potential for expansion.

In NatEx case, maybe if they trusted their drivers more, people would be happier working there. The stupid thing that looks at where your eyes are looking so if you look at a mirror too long, it shouts at you. Doing the smallest thing wrong and you're removed off the network, not just for that one firm, banned off the network from all firms so even if you change operators, you still can't work NatEx. If NatEx want to be so draconian with their practises, it will bite them on the behind. Interestingly one firm which never got the new tech was Selwyns but for some bizzare reason, they keep throwing money at them. Selwyns can't run the services properly and often most of NatEx main advertising features, don't come standard on Selwyns. Wifi is often not working and if Wifi does work, VUER or whatever it is called, doesn't work. Buses are often in a state as well internally. Thank goodness for bustimes showing us who is running each trip as I now avoid any Selwyns trip.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Interesting reports on service levels. I had not noticed this on my London / Cardiff trips. Maybe gaps in the timetable in the late evening. Main change I have noticed at the booking stage since Covid is that all Meagabus seem to go via Heathrow and maybe less/no National Express via Heathrow. Also New operator FlixBus (also all via Heathrow). Fares seem very roughly double which seemed acceptable when the coaches were only half booked. But lately they seem to be rammed which suggests I am missing a few missing services !.

As an aside I used to see fares for getting on or off at Heathrow were a lot more than doing the whole trip Victoria to/from Cardiff on the same services !. Often cheaper to go Cardiff to Victoria then to Heathrow by tube. Heathrow customers are obviously premium customers !.