Coach market share

[notadriver]

Does anyone know where I can find the coach industry's market share of passengers on intercity routes such as London to Oxford, Birmingham, Bristol,Manchester etc ?

 

[PG]

Does anyone know where I can find the coach industry's market share of passengers on intercity routes such as London to Oxford, Birmingham, Bristol,Manchester etc ?

You could try looking at the National Travel Survey 2012 by Dft, this is the main index page:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-travel-survey-2012
Guess it depends how much time you've got on your hands to wade through it all


This provides quick at a glance statistics:
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploa...nt_data/file/225732/nts_2012_infographic1.pdf

Basically says

• Buses (including coaches) carry 6% of the journeys
• Rail (including LU) carry 3% of the journeys

​

This is a more detailed (but not the complete) analysis:
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/243957/nts2012-01.pdf

 

[notadriver]

Thanks for that. Much appreciated.

 

[Titfield]

Are you trying to find out the market share of the various modes of transport e.g.
coach
rail
private car
air

or are you just trying to find out the split between coach and rail?

 

[notadriver]

The public transport split - coach vs rail. Corridors such as London to Oxford favor coaches I believe but I'm curious as to how much.

 

[Titfield]

I don't think that information is readily available as I do not think the raw data is collected at that level of granularity.

However you could calculate capacity share on a route basis and then make load factor assumptions.

So for example London Oxford:
coach: using the timetable(s) of the various operators add up the number of services per day multiply by the average capacity of a coach (or the actuals if you can get them) to get the total number of seats per day and then multiply by the estimated load factor. IIRC National Express get an average 65% load factor.
rail would be the same method of calculation except I don't know what rail average load factor is.

I think you would be amazed that by comparison with rail how little capacity that coaches actually provide.

 

[notadriver]

Thanks - well a cursory glance at the Oxford tube timetable shows a 15 minute service. The X90 provides even more capacity. The trains from Paddington - well there are two direct trains an hour (I don't count the stoppers as they take as long as the coach). Does anyone know how long these trains are ?

 

[radamfi]

You have to be careful when looking at the train length as the train stops at intermediate places, notably Reading, so many of the passengers on the train won't be doing the whole Oxford to London trip.

 

[Daimler]

Thanks - well a cursory glance at the Oxford tube timetable shows a 15 minute service. The X90 provides even more capacity. The trains from Paddington - well there are two direct trains an hour (I don't count the stoppers as they take as long as the coach). Does anyone know how long these trains are ?

It's quite a tricky question to answer - the trains vary a lot in length over the course of the day. At their shortest, they could be 3-car 165s/166s, but could equally be worked in multiple with another 3-car (or a 2-car), making a 5 or 6 coach train. Equally, a number of services are operated by 5-car class 180s (I don't think any of these run in multiple), while many more are operated by 8-coach HSTs.

 

[Squaddie]

Corridors such as London to Oxford favor coaches I believe but I'm curious as to how much.

A few years ago I was travelling between London and Oxford almost daily. I started by using the train, not realising there was any other feasible way, but soon switched to the bus. I found the bus to be cheaper, more flexible, more comfortable and, in many cases, just as fast. It helped that the bus was able to drop me within a few hundred metres of my destination in Oxford, whereas the railway station was on the wrong side of town.

 

[Titfield]

Yes it isn't easy getting the raw data that you would need to make a robust calculation.

Can I ask why London to Oxford is of such interest?

The route is almost unique in Britain in having that level of service by coach.

The only comparable route that springs to mind is the London to Stansted Airport coach services operated by National Express, Terravision and easyBus.

 

[notadriver]

That's very true. I'm also additionally interested in London to Cambridge / Bristol and Birmingham. Here the train is better both in terms of speed and frequency but if a 15 minute coach service was provided would people use it more like the Oxford tube ?

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

That's very true. I'm also additionally interested in London to Cambridge / Bristol and Birmingham. Here the train is better both in terms of speed and frequency but if a 15 minute coach service was provided would people use it more like the Oxford tube ?

I doubt it would generate enough new business to justify more resources. The usual decision of coach vs rail is a case of a slower yet cheaper coach against the faster but more expensive train. However, in terms of Oxford to London, the coach is not only cheaper but faster (given the absence of a direct rail link and the building of the M40 in the 1980's). It's a bit on an anomaly really

For somewhere like Cambridge, you have a half hourly fast train that takes only 50 mins whereas it is nearly 2 hrs on the coach. For Bristol, the differential is similar albeit 2hr 40 on the coach (which I think is non stop) whilst the train is 1hr 50 with stops at Swindon, Chippenham, Bath.

I guess for students or people on a budget, the coach wins but for many in this time poor world, saving an hour and having the ability to wander around/have a table etc is more important. I know when I have to travel into London on business, I either drive to a peripheral tube station or travel by train.

 

[radamfi]

Even with the comparatively restricted train service to Oxford, it is still competitive with coach for trips to the city centre. The main business is for stops along the road out of Oxford and also for the Park & Ride. For these locations, the coach journey time is particularly competitive compared to the train.

 

[CatfordCat]

From a bus / coach perspective -

Oxford is unusual in a few ways, principally that it's one of the few places where there has been long term, direct competition between two bus operators (now Stagecoach Oxford and Go-Ahead's Oxford Bus Company) where that level of competition has been sustainable, and where the competition has been on the basis of quality.

What deregulation produced in most places was low cost, low quality competition which is not sustainable in the long term, as sooner or later either financial reality or the consequences of cutting too many corners with maintenance has caught up with the operator/s involved, or the bigger operator has bought the smaller one out.

Oxford - London is also unusual in not being as heavily peaked towards London commuters as many corridors in the home counties - students are often more flexible about when they travel, and there is also the important flow of tourists from the London end visiting Oxford.

This means that the coaches are earning money for much more of the day. Most of the London commuter coach corridors that flourished after coach deregulation in the 80s have scaled back quite a bit (Southend - London being a spectacular rise and fall) because if the coaches are only earning money 4 hours a day, they don't really pay for themselves.

Likewise, much of the old 'Green Line' network has withered - First Berkshire's Bracknell - Windsor - London route is one of the survivors, as it benefits from a flow of passengers from London visiting Windsor / Legoland.

Also, high frequency services - provided there is the critical mass to sustain them - generate growth. A service that's so frequent that people don't have to think about timetables is far more attractive to potential passengers. In terms of local bus, depending on who you ask, a minimum frequency of every 10 or 15 minutes is the key threshold.

In terms of the numbers, I'm not sure the actual figures asked for in the original post are in the public domain. Coach operators are not required by law to publish their passenger figures.

 

[radamfi]

Regarding the commuter coaches, the one notable survivor is the Kings Ferry/Clarkes coaches from Kent, which provide a coach roughly every 5 minutes from Kent to Victoria via the A2, Canary Wharf and City. These services only run inbound in the morning and outbound in the evening and have no service any other time of day. However, they have managed to make the service pay by using the coaches for private hire work during the day.

 

[notadriver]

Hmm just my opinion but I don't think any company which works it's drivers 13 to 15 hours every day is very ethical or safe for that matter.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

From a bus / coach perspective -


Oxford - London is also unusual in not being as heavily peaked towards London commuters as many corridors in the home counties - students are often more flexible about when they travel, and there is also the important flow of tourists from the London end visiting Oxford.

This means that the coaches are earning money for much more of the day. Most of the London commuter coach corridors that flourished after coach deregulation in the 80s have scaled back quite a bit (Southend - London being a spectacular rise and fall) because if the coaches are only earning money 4 hours a day, they don't really pay for themselves.

Likewise, much of the old 'Green Line' network has withered - First Berkshire's Bracknell - Windsor - London route is one of the survivors, as it benefits from a flow of passengers from London visiting Windsor / Legoland.

Also, high frequency services - provided there is the critical mass to sustain them - generate growth. A service that's so frequent that people don't have to think about timetables is far more attractive to potential passengers. In terms of local bus, depending on who you ask, a minimum frequency of every 10 or 15 minutes is the key threshold.

In terms of the numbers, I'm not sure the actual figures asked for in the original post are in the public domain. Coach operators are not required by law to publish their passenger figures.

When I was studying, the generally accepted "tipping" point on frequency is 15 mins when customers just turn up without recourse to a timetable. You're right in saying that enhanced frequencies do generate growth; I just don't know if it's enough to justify the additional resources required.

The Southend to London service really boomed around 1983/4. However, that was at a time when the LTS was dubbed the Misery Line amid chronic unreliability. I think, but someone may well correct me, the line suffered from very archaic infrastructure. When that was sorted and new rolling stock under c2c came along, the coach service lost its advantage (e.g. reliability) and then fizzled out.

 

[ainsworth74]

Hmm just my opinion but I don't think any company which works it's drivers 13 to 15 hours every day is very ethical or safe for that matter.

If they're actually working those hours every day (or indeed four days or more in a week) their employer would be in violation of the working time directive. So surely there's a bit more to it than that? If it is the case then someone really should be complaining!

 

[radamfi]

The Southend to London service really boomed around 1983/4. However, that was at a time when the LTS was dubbed the Misery Line amid chronic unreliability. I think, but someone may well correct me, the line suffered from very archaic infrastructure. When that was sorted and new rolling stock under c2c came along, the coach service lost its advantage (e.g. reliability) and then fizzled out.

A detailed history of this route is at

http://www.sct61.org.uk/stxdry.htm

The most extreme time was when Thamesway introduced the Citysaver coach service in 1992, leading to a major bus war with low fares until the truce in 1999.

 

[CatfordCat]

Regarding the commuter coaches, the one notable survivor is the Kings Ferry/Clarkes coaches from Kent, which provide a coach roughly every 5 minutes from Kent to Victoria via the A2, Canary Wharf and City. These services only run inbound in the morning and outbound in the evening and have no service any other time of day. However, they have managed to make the service pay by using the coaches for private hire work during the day.

Indeed. There seems to be enough of a critical mass to make this work - perhaps the combination of door-to-door convenience, with coaches from the residential areas of (say) the Medway Towns, avoiding the need to drive / bus to station, then also avoiding the need to change to DLR / tube to get to offices.

The service seems to be frequent enough to offer flexibility (there aren't that many jobs where you can just down tools and go at 5pm or whatever) - and they have obviously found a way of getting enough flexibility in what they offer to cope with this.

When I was studying, the generally accepted "tipping" point on frequency is 15 mins when customers just turn up without recourse to a timetable. You're right in saying that enhanced frequencies do generate growth; I just don't know if it's enough to justify the additional resources required.

Ultimately, it depends. Each market / corridor will behave differently, and will have a different 'elasticity' in respect of price, frequency and quality. There isn't a simple answer that fits every situation, as a few transport plc's (mentioning no names) have found out when they have tried to dictate everything from group HQ without any regard to local conditions.

If they're actually working those hours every day (or indeed four days or more in a week) their employer would be in violation of the working time directive. So surely there's a bit more to it than that? If it is the case then someone really should be complaining!

There are fairly rigid 'drivers hours' rules - and coaches (broadly speaking) come under the EU rules so they are on tachographs. There are both daily and weekly limits on driving time and daily and weekly rests.

Since the penalties for breaching these rules are up to and including large fines and the revocation of both driver's and operator's licence, I would be reasonably confident that any reputable coach operator will work within them.

A lot of private hire jobs will consist of take party from A to B, then park up for a few hours and take them back - so potentially only a couple of hours' driving time.