The reason new EMUs are being considered for the Thames Valley is mainly because NR piped up and said to make good use of paths we really need 110mph stock and the 319s are not capable of this. At the moment nobody really knows what is going down on Thames Valley EMUs.
I am still confident the units well get a full refurb in due course.
I still suggest something else will happen.
We have already seen ... as you rightly post ... 319s for TV unlikely now because of 110 mph.
Which proves plans change. Nothing is set in stone.
I suggest also the north west will get new EMU, possibly for political reasons, its just still being worked on.
My theory is 319s will be refurbished, not as extensively as was predicted, they won't get air-con for example, and they will stay, as a homogenised fleet, in the London area, possibly based at Hornsey and/or Ilford, and will be used to both replace whatever 313/315 that do not get mopped up by Thameslink (GN) and Crossrail servcie and stock cascades, and to supplement the 321 fleet.
319s are fatigued - don't forget they run a 24/7/363 service, far more intense over whole life cycle than similar classes that have a comparatively luxury life with idle time between peak and off peak, whereas most TL units stay out all day and all night. I suspect when the leasco starts to take one apart as a refurblement pilot they'll find more trouble than they expect.
PS
Yes it was me had that letter published in Modern Railways suggesting using 319s for the Bournemouth line when they do the AC bit between Basingstoke and Southampton; however that was tongue in cheek, not serious, however MR published anyway, the editors were amused by it.
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Nick
