Class 170/3 cascade to Chiltern postponed/cancelled?

[158722]

Can anyone give a logical and commercially sound reason why Scotrail can not and will not release a load of 170s when the wires go up and they get EMUs?
The answer "Because they dont want to" holds no water!

ScotRail will give up a load of units once the E&G is electrified in 2016, when 12 to 16 units maximum will be displaced from the mainline services. Have you a source for your rant about cannot and will not, or is that just your view?

If your question was specifically aimed at 170s, then I would suggest they would be more likely to give up 158s, potentially displaced from Fife & Dunblane services by 170s. Off-peak, a 3-car 170 is probably better than a 158 as 2-cars are often cozy whilst 4-cars are probably over kill, whilst many peak services are 6-cars, hence 2x170s vice 3x158s. This will potentially translate into more units (abet 2-car ones, most likely the 8 ex-Wessex/SWT and some of the Haymarket 726-741 batch) being available for transfer elsewhere. That logical and commercially sound?

 

[Class83]

Can anyone give a logical and commercially sound reason why Scotrail can not and will not release a load of 170s when the wires go up and they get EMUs?
The answer "Because they dont want to" holds no water!

The ROSCOs probably don't care who leases the trains, so as long as the Scottish Government (in whatever guise it is then) is willing to subsidise sufficiently to pay the leasing payments they will be fine. Scotrail have been a good customer over the years while Northern have been dropping things off lease (due to lack of money from Westminster) you treat your better customers better.

Thameslink are sending the worst/oldest stock elsewhere as they get new trains, do you expect Scotrail to do anything else. Oh and the Scottish Government will kick up a massive fuss if anyone tries to take 'their' best (diesel) trains.

 

[Old Hill Bank]

Does it all not come down to money, I would guess the 158s are cheaper to lease than 170s. Southern seem to need a few and 158s will require crew and maintenance costs whereas 170s just need the coupling change. There have also been many posts on this forum that have simply said Scotland will not give up any DMUs, clearly whoever runs Scotrail in the future will have to balance the books.
Sorry if anyone thought my earlier post was a "rant" not intended as so.

 

[Class83]

Does it all not come down to money, I would guess the 158s are cheaper to lease than 170s. Southern seem to need a few and 158s will require crew and maintenance costs whereas 170s just need the coupling change. There have also been many posts on this forum that have simply said Scotland will not give up any DMUs, clearly whoever runs Scotrail in the future will have to balance the books.
Sorry if anyone thought my earlier post was a "rant" not intended as so.

Scotrail have essentially branded the 170s as their best trains and it's generally the more important routes which get them. The first phase of electrification will free up 16 units, probably half of these are needed for strengthening services both in the Central Belt and around Aberdeen where there is significant growth in demand, plus replacing the loco hauled services. So <10 units to go somewhere else. As the Scottish Government will want to show that EGIP benefits the North East as well as the Central Belt they will get cascaded 170s. Northern will get some 156s. Once Dunblane and Alloa are electrified there will be more units to cascade, but the same comments apply.

It's not just money, there is politics in there as well, the Borders Railway was basically the payment to the Lib Dems for a coalition government.

 

[158722]

Does it all not come down to money, I would guess the 158s are cheaper to lease than 170s. Southern seem to need a few and 158s will require crew and maintenance costs whereas 170s just need the coupling change. There have also been many posts on this forum that have simply said Scotland will not give up any DMUs, clearly whoever runs Scotrail in the future will have to balance the books.
Sorry if anyone thought my earlier post was a "rant" not intended as so.

Your view is actually quite understandable as Scotland does do significantly better than many parts of England in terms of stock provision, something enviable and the frustration felt in many parts of England comes from this. I often travel from Stirling to Newcastle via Glasgow, so a 170 to start with (very nice, free wifi, recently refurbished), then a 185, 221 or 390 down the WCML for a 142 along the Tyne valley, so a notable step change in journey quality!

As has been mentioned, TFS is flagging up the 170s as their prime train, hence I support the notion that FSR will hang on to these units as opposed to 156s and 158s. It does make sense, but obviously there will be a cost. The 156 fleet will start to diminish once wiring starts to East Kilbride and Barrhead, then Shotts with both the E&G scheme and up to Stirling/Alloa displacing a fair number of 158s/170s, which I am confident will be retained by FSR to allow 156s to be displaced from the GSW and WHL, then cascaded away south. I know clearance works will be required on the GSW and WHL for the units, but I've already predicted that the FSR diesel fleet by 2020 will consist of possibly just the 25 Inverness 158s and current 170 fleet, possibly supported by some 221s ex-WC, which TFS have been suggesting as desirable for the Highland mainline.

As for giving up units, the 2014 schemes (Whifflet/Cumbernauld) only displace 6 units, sufficient to tide FSR over during the Commonwelth games peak and then available for the Borders line in 2015. Moving on to 2016, when the E&G goes live, this should allow 10+ units to be displaced, then 2018-2020 will see a glut when the remainder of the Central belt and Glasgow south west should go live. So, yes FSR will give up considerable numbers of DMUs, but only when the wiring schemes progress and I would suggest most of these units will head to Northern, directly or indirectly as Pacer displacers.

 

[DarloRich]

People talking about getting units of ScotRail are in cloud cuckoo land. ScotRail won’t give up any of "their" units now or ever. They will all get redeployed internally.

 

[YorkshireBear]

People talking about getting units of ScotRail are in cloud cuckoo land. ScotRail won’t give up any of "their" units now or ever. They will all get redeployed internally.

Whether I agree with it or not. That is what I think will happen too.

 

[northwichcat]

People talking about getting units of ScotRail are in cloud cuckoo land. ScotRail won’t give up any of "their" units now or ever. They will all get redeployed internally.

From the Scotrail ITT

There is no requirement for the existing rolling stock to be retained with the exception of the Class 380 electric trains which are covered by an existing Section 54 agreement (as detailed above).

However, the minimum specification for rolling stock could be met by the current fleet, with some specific improvements required by Transport Scotland. The minimum specifications are set out in Appendix 3 (Rolling stock quality specification (passenger facing elements) and the Appendices of
Schedule 6 (Rolling Stock) of the Franchise Agreement, and include the provision of Wi-Fi, additional power sockets and appropriate luggage storage. This does not preclude Bidders offering other improvements where they can demonstrate that passengers would value them. Rolling stock should be equipped with bogies to secure good ride characteristics.

...

Bidders should set out their overall rolling stock strategy for procuring, leasing, cascading and refurbishing rolling stock (in tandem with infrastructure and timetable changes) to provide the required quality and capacity. This should take account of planned network improvements described in HLOS 2012 (available on the Transport Scotland website) including EGIP and the rolling electrification programme, the Borders Railway and improvements to the Highland Main Line and Aberdeen – Inverness line.

...

Diesel running on 25 kV electrified lines should be minimised.

 

[tbtc]

People talking about getting units of ScotRail are in cloud cuckoo land. ScotRail won’t give up any of "their" units now or ever. They will all get redeployed internally.

Whether I agree with it or not. That is what I think will happen too.

Depends how soon you are talking about. Nothing in the next couple of years, I agree.

But we've already seen the Bathgate line converted to EMUs (and extended to Drumgelloch), we've seen the Paisley Canal branch converted to EMUs, the wires are up to Cumbernauld...

...the proposed electrification should release around fifty DMUs by the end of CP5 (the peak hour service from Waverley to Queen Street needs sixteen 170s, to put things into perspective - and there'll be a lot of other services electrified too).

Take off half a dozen for the Tweedbank line, take off a couple for enhanced Oban services, take off a couple to replace the one loco-hauled service on the Fife Circle - but you still have a lot of spare DMUs to play with. There are already doubled up DMUs on routes like the Fife Circle and the Aberdeen/ Inverness lines (isn't there already something like an eight coach DMU on one Aberdeen - Inverness service?).

So, there's going to be a point where ScotRail are going to run out of services to lengthen and there's already precious little spare capacity at key stations like Queen Street and Waverley for new services to be introduced.

Plus, I keep reading about ambitous plans for more "suitable" trains on the long distance services from the central belt to Aberdeen/ Inverness (rather than the "commuter doored" 170s) and that suggests to me that we'll see some DMUs heading south in the next five years. The 158s are probably going to be the first to go (since a 156 can go anywhere in Scotland, but 158s are more restricted - plus the 75mph 156s are more than capable of maintaining services on the kind of rural lines that won't see electrification any time soon - assuming something 100mph is used on the Edinburgh/Glasgow to Aberdeen/Inverness services).

 

[158722]

People talking about getting units of ScotRail are in cloud cuckoo land. ScotRail won’t give up any of "their" units now or ever. They will all get redeployed internally.

FSR have a current fleet of 155 units - 48x 156, 48x 158 and 59x 170.

Where do you think they will find a use for all of these units?
Beyond 2016 the following routes will are planned to be electrified up to around 2019, releasing DMUs.
Edinburgh to Glasgow QS
Edinburgh to Dunblane
Glasgow QS to Dunblane/Alloa
Glasgow QS to Falkirk Grahamston
Glasgow C to Edinburgh via Shotts
Glasgow C to East Kilbride
Glasgow C to Barrhead

Even allowing for extra capacity elsewhere and new services (the Borders line will only occupy a maximum of 6 units), there is no way FSR can justify a fleet of 155 units! Take the Fife Circle, it can only take 6-car sets, so there is only a certain amount of units that can be used... In excess of 40 units will be displaced by 2019 if all the above wiring projects go ahead within the planned timescales.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Depends how soon you are talking about. Nothing in the next couple of years, I agree.

But we've already seen the Bathgate line converted to EMUs (and extended to Drumgelloch), we've seen the Paisley Canal branch converted to EMUs, the wires are up to Cumbernauld...

...the proposed electrification should release around fifty DMUs by the end of CP5 (the peak hour service from Waverley to Queen Street needs sixteen 170s, to put things into perspective - and there'll be a lot of other services electrified too).

Take off half a dozen for the Tweedbank line, take off a couple for enhanced Oban services, take off a couple to replace the one loco-hauled service on the Fife Circle - but you still have a lot of spare DMUs to play with. There are already doubled up DMUs on routes like the Fife Circle and the Aberdeen/ Inverness lines (isn't there already something like an eight coach DMU on one Aberdeen - Inverness service?).

So, there's going to be a point where ScotRail are going to run out of services to lengthen and there's already precious little spare capacity at key stations like Queen Street and Waverley for new services to be introduced.

Plus, I keep reading about ambitous plans for more "suitable" trains on the long distance services from the central belt to Aberdeen/ Inverness (rather than the "commuter doored" 170s) and that suggests to me that we'll see some DMUs heading south in the next five years. The 158s are probably going to be the first to go (since a 156 can go anywhere in Scotland, but 158s are more restricted - plus the 75mph 156s are more than capable of maintaining services on the kind of rural lines that won't see electrification any time soon - assuming something 100mph is used on the Edinburgh/Glasgow to Aberdeen/Inverness services).

Interesting post and agree with your comments, apart from the 156s - I believe they will largely be the ones to drop out of the FSR fleet. Clearing the WHL for 158s is apparently only a paperwork issue, works have been done to eliminate physical clearance issues, whilst I would suspect the same will go ahead on the GSW routes, where 158s or 170s would be more appropriate for the 2-3 hour (or longer!) working done by 156s currently, once 158/170s are displaced by electrification in the central belt.

 

[Buspilot]

All your "what might happen" or wish lists are based on Scotland staying part of the Union. If Scotland were to become independent things could change dramatically regarding funding and what units are still available to FSR.

Perhaps all the 142/3 units, with little/no residual values may end up in Scotland and all the more modern units/larger residual values units, moved south of the border by the leasing company owners.

 

[northwichcat]

Perhaps all the 142/3 units, with little/no residual values may end up in Scotland and all the more modern units/larger residual values units, moved south of the border by the leasing company owners.

What's interesting is the Scotrail ITT specifically says all services must be operated by bogied stock. All current Scotrail rolling stock meets that requirement so it's a bit like saying all rolling stock must be capable of running at 60mph. I wonder if they think Pacers could be cascaded to Scotland if Scotland becomes independent and are trying to prevent it.

 

[edwin_m]

The franchise will become a contract between the Scottish government and the winning bidder. So the bidder will price up all the requirements and operate the service in return for an agreed subsidy, and the government will be in big trouble if it can't pay up (think Greece).

No doubt on independence the remaining term of the contract would transfer unchanged to the new state which would be equally committed to paying the subsidy. It could choose to renegotiate the contract to save money but given that the operator would itself have entered into contracts with ROSCOs and others any saving other than at the end of the franchise would be small.

 

[WatcherZero]

What's interesting is the Scotrail ITT specifically says all services must be operated by bogied stock. All current Scotrail rolling stock meets that requirement so it's a bit like saying all rolling stock must be capable of running at 60mph. I wonder if they think Pacers could be cascaded to Scotland if Scotland becomes independent and are trying to prevent it.

Prevents a bidder proposing to bring in some Pacers or new railbus (PPM60 are bogieless though larger types would be bogied) as a saving.

 

[Class 170101]

The Highland Mainline and Inverness to Aberdeen lines will requre more 158s or 170s should they go hourly.

 

[Buspilot]

What makes you thing that everything will carry on as it is now, or present plans will continue if Scotland becomes a seperate country?

It is another imponderable that Mr Salmond and his chums have not thought through. Has anyone seen a plan for the railways if independence occcurs?

 

[Carlisle]

What makes you thing that everything will carry on as it is now, or present plans will continue if Scotland becomes a seperate country?

It is another imponderable that Mr Salmond and his chums have not thought through. Has anyone seen a plan for the railways if independence occcurs?

If I had to make a guess I would say highly likely to end up an arrangement something similar to what NIR and IE do in Ireland (some cross border working )with services broadly as they are now ,can't see any point in terminating lots of services at rather insignificant (in rai onward connection terms) places like Gretna or Dunbar