China vs Taiwan and other potential invasions/conflicts of concern (previously included Russia & Ukraine)

[brad465]

Since the Olympics end tomorrow, I wonder if we'll see an invasion on Monday? Wasn't it widely speculated that Russia would invade after the Olympics?

They have form, having annexed Crimea soon after the 2014 Winter Olympics which they hosted. The difference though is while in 2014 many were caught off guard, this time Ukraine and the West couldn't be more alert.

 

[Scotrail314209]

They have form, having annexed Crimea soon after the 2014 Winter Olympics which they hosted. The difference though is while in 2014 many were caught off guard, this time Ukraine and the West couldn't be more alert.

Didn’t Russia also invade Georgia during the opening ceremony of the Olympics one year?

 

[alex397]

I follow a handful of YouTubers, who also post on Instagram/Twitter, who live/travel in Ukraine and Russia, who mostly all think this is being exaggerated by Western politicians and media. Not that Russia has built up armies around the Ukraine border, but that they’ll actually invade Russia.
I’m very cynical about politicians and media, and they have certainly created an unsavoury impression of Russian society and culture over many decades (in reality Russians are generally warm, friendly and community-minded people), although criticisms of the authoritarian dictatorship (and it is pretty much a dictatorship!) are certainly warranted.
I’m largely of the view that this event is being overplayed slightly. However, those like the YouTubers I mention saying it’s all nonsense will look a little silly if an invasion does happen.

 

[LOL The Irony]

I follow a handful of YouTubers, who also post on Instagram/Twitter, who live/travel in Ukraine and Russia, who mostly all think this is being exaggerated by Western politicians and media. Not that Russia has built up armies around the Ukraine border, but that they’ll actually invade Russia... I’m largely of the view that this event is being overplayed slightly. However, those like the YouTubers I mention saying it’s all nonsense will look a little silly if an invasion does happen.

It is being blown out of proportion because that's what gets viewing figures on the telly, clicks on the internet and people buying newspapers. I personally don't see it going to war and Ukraine will remain as a neutral zone in a perpetual state of looking over their shoulder. My opinion is that the western political establishment (especially that in the US) have to take some of the blame for this. Like what were Trump and Biden trying to do by getting interests in Ukraine, other than having a dong measuring contest on the international stage? All they have achieved is creating a stand off.

I’m very cynical about politicians and media

As you should be.

they have certainly created an unsavoury impression of Russian society and culture over many decades (in reality Russians are generally warm, friendly and community-minded people), although criticisms of the authoritarian dictatorship (and it is pretty much a dictatorship!) are certainly warranted.

Well it's like that other dictatorship, china. The people aren't the problem, it's the state.

 

[daodao]

Ukraine becoming a genuine democracy.

Pull the other one!

I have just been reading the latest weekly blog by Peter Hitchens [no friend of Putin] on the Mail Online website. He writes:

One of the roots of the Russia-Ukraine problem is, alas, the existence of some very crude and nasty factions of Ukrainian nationalism, many of them unblushing neo-Nazis. Of course there are plenty of perfectly civilised Ukrainian patriots, but bigoted racialist thugs have an influence way beyond their numbers in that country.

That is why so many Russians living in Ukraine have often felt excluded and have yearned to be ruled instead from Russia.

And that explains a lot of other things now going on.

Ukraine is, in fact, much like Russia in its corruption, political sleaze, oligarchs, dirty money and dodgy politics. It is not especially free and the rule of law is absent. And, as you now know in detail, there are quite a few Nazis.

Mail Online - Peter Hitchens blog

The EU-fomented neo-fascist coup in February 2014 in Kiev, overthrowing the elected president, has led to the current crisis.

 

[Strathclyder]

Didn’t Russia also invade Georgia during the opening ceremony of the Olympics one year?

The Russo-Georgian War (1st-12th August 2008) was ongoing when the opening ceremony for that year's Summer Olympics in Beijing was held on 8th August.

I’m very cynical about politicians and media, and they have certainly created an unsavoury impression of Russian society and culture over many decades (in reality Russians are generally warm, friendly and community-minded people), although criticisms of the authoritarian dictatorship (and it is pretty much a dictatorship!) are certainly warranted.

Much in the same vein as the likes of China then. The people aren't the problem and never have been, it's the state and it's actions that have been largely responsible for the Western world's perceptions of that countries' general populace being so completely wrong.

 

[GusB]

Pull the other one!

I have just been reading the latest weekly blog by Peter Hitchens [no friend of Putin] on the Mail Online website. He writes:

Mail Online - Peter Hitchens blog

The EU-fomented neo-fascist coup in February 2014 in Kiev, overthrowing the elected president, has led to the current crisis.

Ah, the delightful Peter Hitchens, writing for the Daily Mail. That means we should all believe him, then.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I follow a handful of YouTubers, who also post on Instagram/Twitter, who live/travel in Ukraine and Russia, who mostly all think this is being exaggerated by Western politicians and media. Not that Russia has built up armies around the Ukraine border, but that they’ll actually invade Russia.
I’m very cynical about politicians and media, and they have certainly created an unsavoury impression of Russian society and culture over many decades (in reality Russians are generally warm, friendly and community-minded people), although criticisms of the authoritarian dictatorship (and it is pretty much a dictatorship!) are certainly warranted.

I don't doubt you're impression of Russians and Russian society - human beings do after all tend to be human beings, no matter how bad their Government. But I don't recall ever reading anything in the mainstream UK Press or from UK politicians that either claims or implies Russians aren't warm and friendly, so I'm not sure why you have the impression Western media is pushing that line? As far as I can tell, criticism of Russia tends to be exclusively levelled at the Putin and his corrupt, autocratic, Government.

I’m largely of the view that this event is being overplayed slightly. However, those like the YouTubers I mention saying it’s all nonsense will look a little silly if an invasion does happen.

Yes, it does seem to me very possible that the fears of invasion, while clearly justified, are being overplayed a bit by Western leaders precisely in order to try to deter Putin from invading. And that makes sense because overplaying and preventing an invasion is far, far, less bad than underplaying it and then seeing an invasion actually happen.

It's also possible that Western leaders are thinking a bit about Xi's regime in China, with its designs on Taiwan: The more we appear to be standing firm against Russia, the more we are indirectly communicating a message that there would be a high cost for him too if he tried to invade.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 Feb 2022 ==

Pull the other one!

I have just been reading the latest weekly blog by Peter Hitchens [no friend of Putin] on the Mail Online website. He writes:

According to the Democracy Index Ukraine ranks 84th out of all countries in levels of democracy. Not brilliant, and it's classified as a 'hybrid regime' - so I think you're correct only to the extent that Ukraine isn't (yet) truly democratic. However it's way, way, ahead of Russia - which ranks 124th and is classed as 'authoritarian'.

 

[Scotrail314209]

Ukraine: Russia plans biggest war in Europe since 1945 - Boris Johnson

Boris Johnson tells BBC that intelligence suggests Russia intends to launch an invasion encircling Kyiv.

www.bbc.co.uk

Oh please shut up.

Evidence suggests Russia is planning "the biggest war in Europe since 1945", Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said.
He told the BBC's Sophie Raworth in an interview: "All the signs are that the plan has already in some senses begun."
Intelligence suggests Russia intends to launch an invasion that will encircle Ukrainian capital Kyiv, Mr Johnson said.
"People need to understand the sheer cost in human life that could entail," he said.
The prime minister was speaking from Munich, where world leaders are meeting for an annual security conference.
The latest estimates by the US government suggests that between 169,000 and 190,000 Russian troops are now stationed along Ukraine's border, both in Russia and neighbouring Belarus - but this figure also includes rebels in eastern Ukraine.
Mr Johnson also indicated that the UK would bring in even more far-reaching sanctions against Russia than have been suggested before.
He said the UK and the US would stop Russian companies "trading in pounds and dollars" - a move that he said would "hit very very hard" with its impact.

Is it me, or is the thought of Johnson being PM during a possible war more scary than the war itself?

 

[daodao]

According to the Democracy Index Ukraine ranks 84th out of all countries in levels of democracy. Not brilliant, and it's classified as a 'hybrid regime' - so I think you're correct only to the extent that Ukraine isn't (yet) truly democratic. However it's way, way, ahead of Russia - which ranks 124th and is classed as 'authoritarian'.

For the record, the Democracy Index (published by the right-wing Economist magazine) categorises the UK and the 3 East Slav states as follows (ranked by scores out of 10):

2021 rank	Country	Category	2021 score	2006 score
18	United Kingdom	Full democracy	8.10	8.08
86	Ukraine	Hybrid regime	5.57	6.94
124	Russia	Authoritarian	3.24	5.02
146	Belarus	Authoritarian	2.41	3.34

The scores for all 3 East Slav states are getting worse, as is the world-wide trend, although that for the UK is stable (overall). The scores are based on 5 categories:

• electoral process and pluralism
• civil liberties
• functioning of government
• political participation
• political culture

There is no weighting for social justice/economic equality. An index of economic disparity within countries is provided by the United Nations R/P 10% index, defined as the ratio of the average income of the richest 10% to the poorest 10%; the higher the score, the greater the disparity. For the 4 countries of interest, the scores are:

Country	Score
United Kingdom	13.8
Ukraine	5.9
Russia	12.7
Belarus	6.9

List of countries by income inequality - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[AlterEgo]

I think they feel that the west are so uncertain of themselves these days that any amount of misinformation seems to make us hesitant and wrong footed enough to take advantage of.
Plus there’s a direct line straight into our lives via social media these days which is an option that was never available during the Cold War.

Pretty much this. You only have to look at the sort of mindless takes anti-western takes by people in western countries to see proof of this.

Balls to Russia, they’re the aggressor and it’s not clever to suggest otherwise.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 Feb 2022 ==

Ah, the delightful Peter Hitchens, writing for the Daily Mail. That means we should all believe him, then.

Hitchens is at least intellectually honest and snipes at all sides even if he is wrong half of the time.

 

[jon0844]

Ukraine: Russia plans biggest war in Europe since 1945 - Boris Johnson

Boris Johnson tells BBC that intelligence suggests Russia intends to launch an invasion encircling Kyiv.

www.bbc.co.uk

Oh please shut up.



Is it me, or is the thought of Johnson being PM during a possible war more scary than the war itself?

Totally. He has no mind of his own, so he'll go with the advice of others - which is perhaps terrifying.

His criteria will be how it will make him look, and if it will help steer media attention away from him for other things.

 

[YorkshireBear]

Ukraine: Russia plans biggest war in Europe since 1945 - Boris Johnson

Boris Johnson tells BBC that intelligence suggests Russia intends to launch an invasion encircling Kyiv.

www.bbc.co.uk

Oh please shut up.



Is it me, or is the thought of Johnson being PM during a possible war more scary than the war itself?

Yeah why is our prime minister coming out with hyperbole???? This isnt his job

 

[adc82140]

The whole of 21st century society runs on hyperbole.

 

[Scotrail314209]

Satellite images show new deployments of Russian troops – as it happened

Élysée Palace says both Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin have agreed to the idea of a summit ‘to discuss security and strategic stability in Europe’

amp.theguardian.com

Russia-Belarus drills to continue beyond schedule​

Joint military exercises by Russia and Belarus close to the Belarusian border with Ukraine were due to end today but the Belarusian defense ministry has announced that they will continue. They have been seen as a significant element in the Kremlin’s menacing posture towards its neighbour.

Looks like the military drills in Belarus are continuing. Who could’ve guessed Russia would go back on their word…

 

[brad465]

Well it's like that other dictatorship, china. The people aren't the problem, it's the state.

Yes we have more in common with the citizens of any nation in the world, than either group of citizens has with its respective Government.

The whole of 21st century society runs on hyperbole.

I do often think that society has stopped moving forwards and a number of technological "advances" are not actually helpful to society.

 

[kylemore]

Pull the other one!

I have just been reading the latest weekly blog by Peter Hitchens [no friend of Putin] on the Mail Online website. He writes:

Mail Online - Peter Hitchens blog

The EU-fomented neo-fascist coup in February 2014 in Kiev, overthrowing the elected president, has led to the current crisis.

Yes Hitchens is one of the few sane voices allowed to express his views in the MSN at the moment on the Ukraine situation - I wonder how long that will last?

I don't agree with him on many other topics but he's talking some sense on this, and remember he has a low opinion of Putin.

He writes for the Daily Mail? So what? They're all more or less singing from the same hymn sheet just now from the lefty liberal Guardian to the establishment mouthpieces, the Times and the Telegraph.

 

[brad465]

The EU-fomented neo-fascist coup in February 2014 in Kiev, overthrowing the elected president, has led to the current crisis.

Yes Hitchens is one of the few sane voices allowed to express his views in the MSN at the moment on the Ukraine situation - I wonder how long that will last?

I don't agree with him on many other topics but he's talking some sense on this, and remember he has a low opinion of Putin.

I'd go further and say that, when Crimea was annexed, there was a huge failure in any countries doing dealings with Russia moving away from them economically. Primarily this applies to all countries relying on them for gas, but also for the UK, not cleaning up the London laundromat, failing to come down much harder after the Salisbury poisonings, and preventing them donating to the Tory party. Even if all ties hadn't been cut by now, enough progress could easily have been made in the following 7 years to make sure Russia was not the position it is now.

 

[Gloster]

There is an article on The Grauniad/Observer website (sorry, I can’t do a link) about how the British government has failed to close loopholes which allow Russian cash to be held anonymously in UK property and will make it difficult to impose sanctions. Of course, Johnson is talking tough and telling the rest of Europe what they should do.

 

[nanstallon]

Pull the other one!

I have just been reading the latest weekly blog by Peter Hitchens [no friend of Putin] on the Mail Online website. He writes:

Mail Online - Peter Hitchens blog

The EU-fomented neo-fascist coup in February 2014 in Kiev, overthrowing the elected president, has led to the current crisis.

"neo-fascist coup in February 2014 in Kiev, " - since then, there have been two changes of president by way of free elections. I'm not saying that Ukraine is perfect, but it is well on the way to becoming a fully democratic state. There is work to be done on corruption - but you could say that about Britain, too.

 

[daodao]

I'm not saying that Ukraine is perfect, but it is well on the way to becoming a fully democratic state.

Really?! The trend for the Ukraine is the other way, towards autocracy.

For the record, the Democracy Index (published by the right-wing Economist magazine) categorises the UK and the 3 East Slav states as follows (ranked by scores out of 10):

2021 rank	Country	Category	2021 score	2006 score
18	United Kingdom	Full democracy	8.10	8.08
86	Ukraine	Hybrid regime	5.57	6.94
124	Russia	Authoritarian	3.24	5.02
146	Belarus	Authoritarian	2.41	3.34

The scores for all 3 East Slav states are getting worse, as is the world-wide trend, although that for the UK is stable (overall).

 

[Meerkat]

Really?! The trend for the Ukraine is the other way, towards autocracy.

You know what makes it easier for politicians to reduce democracy and bring in autocratic laws?
Having an existential threat to the country......

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Yeah why is our prime minister coming out with hyperbole???? This isnt his job

Is it hyperbole? All the Russian forces surrounding Ukraine would seem to indicate a good chance that what Boris Johnson is saying about Russia planning a war is correct. Not a 100% chance, but a fair change. It seems to me that warning about a plausible impending catastrophe and taking action to try to avert it is *precisely* (part of) his job. I would say the bigger regret is that other Western leaders aren't currently displaying the same leadership on this issue that the UK is.

General point for the discussion about Boris and his motives (not particularly aimed at you): Don't fall into the trap of assuming that, just because you don't like how Johnson has behaved on certain other issues, he must automatically be wrong on everything else. Most human beings - and most prime ministers - are wrong on some things and right on other things.

 

[brad465]

Is it hyperbole? All the Russian forces surrounding Ukraine would seem to indicate a good chance that what Boris Johnson is saying about Russia planning a war is correct. Not a 100% chance, but a fair change. It seems to me that warning about a plausible impending catastrophe and taking action to try to avert it is *precisely* (part of) his job. I would say the bigger regret is that other Western leaders aren't currently displaying the same leadership on this issue that the UK is.

General point for the discussion about Boris and his motives (not particularly aimed at you): Don't fall into the trap of assuming that, just because you don't like how Johnson has behaved on certain other issues, he must automatically be wrong on everything else. Most human beings - and most prime ministers - are wrong on some things and right on other things.

It's easy to display the right rhetoric, but to display the right action is another matter entirely. Johnson is coming out with the right rhetoric in places on this issue yes, but not all the required actions are in place. Johnson saying something and not following up on it is not limited to him, both with regards to former UK PMs and current foreign leaders, but that doesn't exonerate him doing such.

More needs to be done on the issue of laundered Russian money in London being seized and the action clamped down on. Legislation is apparently being drawn up regarding visas for foreign investors, but that doesn't do much about all the hidden dirty money already in place, where there are Tory backbenchers concerned about this. Then there's the Russian money that has partially funded the Tory party, at the minimum all that money needs clearing out immediately, and whatever influence was being bought with it needs to be stopped just as fast.

 

[kylemore]

Would you be willing to give that advice to Putin and Xi? It is after all them, not us, who appear to currently be making possible plans to invade other countries.

Yes the gall of these people muscling in on the USA's (and lackeys) Invasion Business!

 

[Cloud Strife]

Is it hyperbole? All the Russian forces surrounding Ukraine would seem to indicate a good chance that what Boris Johnson is saying about Russia planning a war is correct. Not a 100% chance, but a fair change. It seems to me that warning about a plausible impending catastrophe and taking action to try to avert it is *precisely* (part of) his job. I would say the bigger regret is that other Western leaders aren't currently displaying the same leadership on this issue that the UK is.

I cannot stand Boris, but he's absolutely right on this one. More and more forces are building up on Ukraine's border, and the only question is whether it's enough to actually mount a successful invasion. Some military commentators suggest that it's nowhere near enough to actually occupy Kharkiv and other cities, although Putin has clearly shown that Ukraine has little to no hope of defending itself in a conventional war.

IMO, Putin walks into Donetsk/Luhansk sometime in the next few days. Ukraine won't try and intervene, but Putin will show restraint and leave Mariupol, Kharhiv and other nearby cities alone.

 

[nanstallon]

Yes the gall of these people muscling in on the USA's (and lackeys) Invasion Business!

Two wrongs don't make a right. I didn't, and don't, agree with the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, and interfence in Libya, but these were all dictatorships. I suppose I can see some logic in Russia occupying Donetsk/ Luhansk, Russian speaking areas which have been neglected, but still don't think this is the right way to go about things.

 

[DanNCL]

Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden have agreed ‘in principle’ to hold a summit to discuss the Ukraine crisis. This development came after a second phone call between Putin and Emmanuel Macron in the early hours of this morning.

 

[adc82140]

Hopefully the well trodden path of brinkmanship leading to a dose of realpolitik will dial down the tensions, and also blunt the propaganda war.

 

[GWRtom]

Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden have agreed ‘in principle’ to hold a summit to discuss the Ukraine crisis. This development came after a second phone call between Putin and Emmanuel Macron in the early hours of this morning.

Seems like the Kremlin have gone back on this,

"Kremlin says it is too early to organise summit between Putin and Biden, after Paris announced the possibility of a meeting to calm tensions over Ukraine."

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1495683100457971713