Chiltern franchise replacement thoughts?

[Cherry_Picker]

Electrification seems like the obvious next step. Gets the diesels out of Marylebone and should provide the acceleration needed to allow for more stops in the outer London (Zones 4-6) stations which recieve some of the poorest frequency of service in the capital.

Not sure how many coaches you'd need. I think there are about 230 in the current fleet, but I'm not sure how that translates into electric units which don't require refuelling or as much maintenance but if you said between 55 and 60 four car EMUs then you could probably cover the current service without having to worry about some of the shorter platforms on the Met or on the branches out to Stratford and Kidderminster (assuming they even stay in the franchise). I think if you do electrify then it makes sense to go the extra 20 odd miles to Worcester (or even 15 to Stourbridge) and have the 10 minute service on the Snow Hill lines served by EMUs too.

However, I'm not holding my breath. I can't see any big decisions made until the effects of HS2, East-West and potential Crossrail connections between High Wycombe and Old Oak have played out.

 

[LLivery]

Does Marylebone really need more platforms? Fenchurch Street manages 20tph from 4 platforms in the 17:00 hour Monday-Friday. Electrification, longer trains and making use of Old Oak Common (I'd prefer Paddington), should surely be ample London capacity.

Assuming electrification for the Chiltern & Snow Hill lines, I wouldn't bother with InterCity style trains, I'd just have a uniform 4-5 car, 100mph, 2+2 seating fleet for the whole network.

 

[cactustwirly]

Electrification and operation with a decent set of new EMUs.

There are other places that would benefit with electrification than Chiltern, like the GWML to Bristol/Oxford, and the rest of the MML.

Anyway, it definately needs something to replace the 168s on Birmingham runs, I've recently had a 3 car 168 which was full and standing from Banbury to Birmingham.

 

[Railwaysceptic]

Anyone know the platform lengths on the Chiltern Main Line, i.e. is there space to introduce longer trains from London to Birmingham?

I don't know the platform lengths but most Chiltern trains occupy only about one third of the platforms. The scope for lengthening Chiltern trains is enormous. If you look at the YouTube videos uploaded by a Chiltern driver (Tsar something or other) you can see how the trains stop well before the end of the platforms.

 

[4-SUB 4732]

Whilst I agree with much of the sentiment shown in others' posts here, I think a few things need to be borne in mind.

Firstly, Chiltern's fleet is relatively new. Wholesale replacement isn't entirely off the cards but at the moment I would be surprised if it happened. At best, some of the older stock (Turbos etc.) might be cascaded down to the likes of Northern, to replace 150s/156s.

Secondly, the line has had a lot of investment put in it to get it to its current status, however many of the schemes were ultimately the easier ones to do out of all the possible options (in the bigger picture of rail infrastructure upgrades). For example, the addition of the Bicester Curve was a few hundred yards of extra track (although of course there was substantial other work done on the already existing line). The redoubling of Princes Risborough northwards was back to what had once been a double track alignment - i.e. no major earthworks were required. The line is thus, in the main, as upgraded as it could realistically be, within the bounds of the existing infrastructure. Further upgrades are always physically possible, but it will be on the basis of ever decreasing cost-benefit ratios. For one, I see the quadrupling of the line to High Wycombe as an idea worth considering, but unlikely to happen any time soon.

Thirdly, Marylebone is a major pinch point currently. It has 'only' 6 platforms, and to expand it any further would require a reduction in siding capacity (which is much needed to balance out the peaks with appropriate length trains for the off-peak), and/or substantial demolition of nearby properties - which is likely to be very unpopular and expensive.

Fourthly, the impact of East-West Rail is no doubt going to be a significant factor, but I think you have to be sensible about what is realistically possible. EW is clearly being done 'on the cheap'. No electrification, low linespeeds. That says it all. I therefore doubt that there will ever be the market for through trains from Milton Keynes to Kidderminster, for example, as it's inevitably going to be so much slower than the more direct route.

I think the impact of HS2 is probably not going to be as significant as some might think, as it doesn't decrease journey times for most of the network and thus isn't, as such, any more attractive than the existing options.

In the very, very long term I think the potential for improvements is there - e.g. thinking about introducing some faster (110+?) stock - but this line has had a lot of improvements in, in railway terms, a very short time.

I agree with a lot of what you say.

EWRL is going to be a crock, to be honest. This Marylebone - Milton Keynes hourly (very) slow service will be a waste of time. A lot of what is genuinely needed (Princes Risborough - Milton Keynes half-hourly with a doubled Risborough - Aylesbury section) won’t be delivered due to costs.

HS2 won’t have an interchange with a meaningful station on EWRL etc and the likely impact is going to be more housing on the legacy Chiltern routes so the need to use the larger tunnel at Gerrard’s Cross (thank you to whoever specified four track width!) with a four-tracking scheme from South Ruislip to High Wycombe will likely prove extremely acute.

Either way, the Chiltern route will likely continue to be an extremely important route for commuters, leisure-seekers and other general folk.

 

[ForTheLoveOf]

I agree with a lot of what you say.

EWRL is going to be a crock, to be honest. This Marylebone - Milton Keynes hourly (very) slow service will be a waste of time. A lot of what is genuinely needed (Princes Risborough - Milton Keynes half-hourly with a doubled Risborough - Aylesbury section) won’t be delivered due to costs.

HS2 won’t have an interchange with a meaningful station on EWRL etc and the likely impact is going to be more housing on the legacy Chiltern routes so the need to use the larger tunnel at Gerrard’s Cross (thank you to whoever specified four track width!) with a four-tracking scheme from South Ruislip to High Wycombe will likely prove extremely acute.

Either way, the Chiltern route will likely continue to be an extremely important route for commuters, leisure-seekers and other general folk.

Hear, hear. I think four-tracking will inevitably be needed at some point, but I would doubt it will happen in the next franchise, owing to the extensive capital expenditure required. During the latter BR days (and through the earlier Chiltern days), many of the stations had their layouts adjusted to better suit a two-track layout as opposed to the four-track layout (as built, with centre through running lines at almost all stations).

In fact, you would have to essentially entirely demolish and rebuild stations like Sudbury and Harrow Road (which was rebuilt a few decades ago as an island platform where the through lines had once been). I simply can't see this being done in the short term.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I should think the current Chiltern operation is likely to get a franchise extension for a couple of years, and then be folded into whatever new franchising structure the Williams review comes up with.
Also to have its Birmingham services keyed into the HS2 world after 2026.
EWR will also have a better focus by then.
It's an uncontroversial railway at the moment, and I should think DfT will want it to stay that way for a while.
If Arriva refused an extension, like Stagecoach did with SWT, it would upset the apple cart though.

 

[The Ham]

Electrification seems like the obvious next step. Gets the diesels out of Marylebone and should provide the acceleration needed to allow for more stops in the outer London (Zones 4-6) stations which recieve some of the poorest frequency of service in the capital.

Not sure how many coaches you'd need. I think there are about 230 in the current fleet, but I'm not sure how that translates into electric units which don't require refuelling or as much maintenance but if you said between 55 and 60 four car EMUs then you could probably cover the current service without having to worry about some of the shorter platforms on the Met or on the branches out to Stratford and Kidderminster (assuming they even stay in the franchise). I think if you do electrify then it makes sense to go the extra 20 odd miles to Worcester (or even 15 to Stourbridge) and have the 10 minute service on the Snow Hill lines served by EMUs too.

However, I'm not holding my breath. I can't see any big decisions made until the effects of HS2, East-West and potential Crossrail connections between High Wycombe and Old Oak have played out.

In in two minds about when to electrify the Chiltern line, pay off me would like it done before HS2, so that those opposed to it couldn't say that it should happen rather than HS2.

The other part of me thinks that it should happen after so that major works can be done with less disruption to rail users.

 

[jimm]

The older dmus and the Mk3s will probably last another decade with some tic, which should should carry Chiltern route services though to a point beyond the opening of HS2 - so there ought to be time to see what impact that has on people's travel patterns, especially in the parts of Warwickshire that Chiltern serves (ie will Birmingham Interchange be the traffic magnet HS2 hopes), and then plot a way ahead in terms of services and traction.

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

Could any new destinations be added?
Any infrastructure investment

 

[The Planner]

I wouldn't expect much at all, even when it eventually gets re-frsnchised which as others have said will be unlikely in Dec 2021.

Unless anything is stated in the route study, like OOC, it is unlikely to happen. Electrification is a long long way off. Digital signalling is too seeing as most of the route signalling is a good 25 years away from replacement. Princes Risborough to Aylesbury won't be doubled because it wasn't needed to deliver the E-W specification (why does Princes Risborough to MK need 2tph? and why is E-W slow at 90/100mph?). The line will need a fair bit of geotechnic work in the years to come as the embankments are not the strongest due to their construction materials. Knightcote embankment near Fenny Compton will probably get sorted so the 75 can get up to 90/100 in the short term as that has wider benefits for XC too.

 

[BucksBones]

In my opinion Chiltern have gone downhill of late. The old Chiltern gave the impression of being thoughtful and innovative; a seemingly happy workforce, well maintained stations (with hanging baskets for goodness’ sake!), an imaginative, outside-the-box approach to stock shortages in introducing the mk3s and 121s, etc etc. Now they are again short of stock because the Evergreen programme has increased passenger numbers, yet DB see fit to withdraw the 121s and not replace them. D-trains would have been perfect for that job. Recent cancellations have illustrated that they clearly have an issue with staffing and the withdrawal of catering illustrates the shift away from their previous, customer-focused attitude. I hope the new franchisee will concentrate on fixing these issues first rather than rushing to implement any headline-grabbing, grandiose schemes.

I also hope they will pay some attention to poor old Aylesbury, which has become the poor relation to the main line stations and desperately needs a better service. Many people in Aylesbury choose to drive to WCML stations because the Chiltern services are glacially slow and can be horrendously overcrowded (2 car 165s often being the best they can muster) as well as being considerably more expensive than the equivalent WCML journey.

Infrastructure wise, 4-tracking of the main line between Risborough and Marylebone and doubling of the Aylesbury - Risborough branch would enable some limited stop Aylesbury - Marylebone services (say Aylesbury - Princes Risborough- High Wycombe - Marylebone) which would give Aylesbury the sub-50 minute journey time to London this massively growing town deserves. Unfortunately I can’t see it happening though...


Edit: sorry Planner, didn’t see your post before I posted. Doubling the Aylesbury - Risboro branch wouldn’t just serve Risborough - MK passengers which is indeed a small market but would have made that route a quicker way to get from Aylesbury to Marylebone than the Met line.

 

[Hadders]

Another 20 year franchise giving some certainty rather than a short termism 5 or 7 year deal.

 

[700007]

I would like to see another long term franchise. These tend to work better it seems in providing a good service to the railway (see c2c, Virgin Trains also) as the operator invests a lot into the franchise and does actually have incentive to do well.

I think the biggest issues to tackle here are capacity and frequency upgrades. There are a lot of services formed of a mere 2 or 3 coaches when they are crying out for more coaches. Perhaps more loco hauled services and units like the 68s to solely take over the Birmingham runs perhaps releasing 168s onto routes where the 165s operate. This can then withdraw the 165s from this particular franchise and either be cascaded to the Devon / Cornwall ends of the GWR franchise or move further up north to replace older Sprinters.

I would like to see a better service at the Stations between Wembley Stadium and West Ruislip particularly during the off peak. A lot of these stations are up there as some of the most poorly served in London when they would actually be very popular if they had a much more frequent service.

Wembley Stadium is the station closest to, you guessed it, Wembley Stadium (and also the Arena and London Designer Outlet, as well as a massive new housing complex). It also boasts the fastest journey times from Wembley to Central London with a train reaching London Marylebone in 9 minutes. I would like to see the station staffed for a good portion of the day.

Sudbury Hill Harrow should have a half hourly service and also a new weekend service, half hourly Saturdays and hourly Sundays. It only has a mere 77,000 passengers using it whereas next door Sudbury Hill Station on the Piccadilly line has nearly 2 million people. However the journey times to/from zone 1 are 13 minutes from Sudbury Hill Harrow vs 30 minutes to South Kensington (or 40 minutes to Piccadilly Circus) from Sudbury Hill. Surely this is a market waiting to be unlocked?

Northolt Park is another station with a lot of potential, conveniently situated equidistant between South Harrow, Rayners Lane and Northolt stations. A half hourly off peak service would attract a lot more customers to these stations once again offering competitive journey times to Central London.

Also improving the general care, feel and atmosphere to their smaller stations would make it feel more welcoming and inviting. There's a lot waiting to be unlocked potential with the Chiltern franchise and Arriva has done a good job breathing life into this route so far. Still a lot of work to do though.

A few diverted services to Old Oak Common when that opens would be brilliant too, possibly such as the Banbury and Aylesbury via High Wycombe stopping services.

 

[67018]

The biggest immediate challenge on this franchise is purely capacity, with better services and massive amounts of house building along the route leading to a big increase in demand. Major stations were recently upgraded to 9 car length but most services are 8 car max in the peaks. Not helped by the fact that long trains can't call a some of the smaller stations - so in fact one of the most worthwhile investments may be platform extensions a these more 'minor' places to allow more trains to run at full length.

Lack of stock is further evidenced by regular cancellations or short formations every time a few more units than usual are unavailable. Having 2 car trains running from a London terminal in the peak is a joke.

I can't see any of the more exotic ideas going anywhere in the next 10 years or so given the amount of relatively recent investment, focus on EWR and HS2 and the number of more urgent priorities elsewhere.

 

[BucksBones]

Lack of stock is further evidenced by regular cancellations or short formations every time a few more units than usual are unavailable. Having 2 car trains running from a London terminal in the peak is a joke.

Quite. I’m afraid to say that under Shooter they’d have found a way round this. Why this franchise remains so highly regarded on this forum is a mystery to me.

 

[Starmill]

Extending the Moor Street services to Snow Hill

Whao hold on now, lets not be too ambitious!

Firstly, Chiltern's fleet is relatively new.

The age of the trains is less influential now than it was before. A fleet of 30 5 car trains was replaced before they came into passenger service.

older stock (Turbos etc.) might be cascaded down to the likes of Northern, to replace 150s/156s.

Again, it's not contingent on finding a new home for displaced rolling stock to order a replacement.

 

[Doctor Fegg]

Give Arriva a long-term franchise in the hope it’ll lead to innovation and investment? I’m not sure that’s worked too well when it’s been tried before.

 

[ForTheLoveOf]

The age of the trains is less influential now than it was before. A fleet of 30 5 car trains was replaced before they came into passenger service.
Again, it's not contingent on finding a new home for displaced rolling stock to order a replacement.

Agreed, but it is certainly a factor. No doubt the fact that it's a London commuter franchise first and foremost means that stock replacement is more 'on the cards' than it would be if this were the Northern franchise, for instance!

It's exciting, in a way, imagining the scope for change on this franchise. Princes Risborough could see some of the biggest changes - having gone from originally being built as a station with the usual two main platforms and two through lines, plus the Aylesbury bay, to being "rationalised" to a single through line. And it could become the end of a four track electrified railway (well, maybe).

Obviously it's not going to happen overnight but I wouldn't be surprised if, in say 20 or 30 years, some of the proposals made here actually materialise.

 

[si404]

why does Princes Risborough to MK need 2tph?

2tph HW-Aylesbury, ditto 2tph Aylesbury-MK are totally justifiable, and kind-of-necessary to abstract from the roads properly.

 

[swt class 450]

Some more Turbostar trains to replace the locomotive hauled sets would be good. The MK3 carriages are getting old and will really need replacing soon.

 

[Aictos]

Thinking out of the box instead of having two franchises in a similar area why not have East West Rail and Chiltern operate as one TOC?

Surely you could find savings by having one TOC operating services rather then two such as fleet, HQ, traincrew etc all coming under one roof then two different ones.

As to the loco hauled services, orders can always be placed for MK5s with a DVT at the other end meaning locos can be freed up to operate additional services as and when possible.

As to Electrification, there is one simple answer to the issue of Chiltern running over LUL metals why not have the changeover from AC OHL to DC 3rd rail/4th rail at Neasden South Junction? Then services to Aylesbury over LUL Metals as well as stopping services to Banbury could use Class 319s in their AC OHL/DC 3rd Rail guise but refurbished and use Class 88s and Mk5s for the Birmingham services.

Although IF and it's a big IF, any electrification was considered then a infill scheme from the Chiltern scheme to the Great Western at Didcot should certainly be looked at as you could then run EMUs to Oxford from both Paddington and Marylebone as well as the Class 8XXs using OHL to Oxford.

As to Oxford, the stopping services north ought to be in the hands of Chiltern and the ones to the south in the hands of Great Western excluding the XC ones obviously...

 

[swt_passenger]

The slow hourly through service from Marylebone to Milton Keynes being complained about in a couple of recent posts is no longer in the proposals. Hasn’t this been covered at length in the EWR thread in the last few months?

 

[Tom Quinne]

Electrification and operation with a decent set of new EMUs.

Totally agree, the route is crying out for OHL and a new high performance EMU fleet.

Once you’ve juiced via Banbury, the gaps between Banbury and Oxford/Lemmington and Coventry seem hard to keep knocking back. Plug it into West Midlands Cross City OHL and you’ve a very connected electric network.

 

[si404]

The biggest immediate challenge on this franchise is purely capacity, with better services and massive amounts of house building along the route leading to a big increase in demand. Major stations were recently upgraded to 9 car length but most services are 8 car max in the peaks. Not helped by the fact that long trains can't call a some of the smaller stations - so in fact one of the most worthwhile investments may be platform extensions a these more 'minor' places to allow more trains to run at full length.

Lack of stock is further evidenced by regular cancellations or short formations every time a few more units than usual are unavailable. Having 2 car trains running from a London terminal in the peak is a joke.

I can't see any of the more exotic ideas going anywhere in the next 10 years or so given the amount of relatively recent investment, focus on EWR and HS2 and the number of more urgent priorities elsewhere.

Nail, head. Longer trains is not only the most important thing, but the only thing likely to happen.

Thinking out of the box instead of having two franchises in a similar area why not have East West Rail and Chiltern operate as one TOC?

Sadly the vertical integration of E-W Rail puts that to bed. There's also little physical overlap between the two - Aylesbury VP - Aylesbury, and Bicester - Oxford.

Greenford is off the cards, given the Thames Valley branches are staying diesel (and so GWR still would have stock depoted nearby to serve the branch), and other than the 2-hourly Leamington shuttles perhaps going to West Midlands Trains, I can't see any real change in services and calling patterns run by them until track work is done. And we have to bare in mind that it's likely to be a 5 year award due to HS2 and all that affecting the route, so little incentive for the franchise to invest in track work on the Princes Risborough-Aylesbury line, or down to OOC, or at Neasden Junction, or readding through tracks, etc happens.

 

[jimm]

Some more Turbostar trains to replace the locomotive hauled sets would be good. The MK3 carriages are getting old and will really need replacing soon.

No they won't, so long as they are looked after - as I said above. My comments were based on actually talking to some of the people involved in the project to fit plug doors to the Mk3s at the time the first set was about to enter service in 2012. I was told that the work done on the bodyshells had made them good for another 20 years, which gets us to the start of the 2030s.

 

[FQ]

Some more Turbostar trains to replace the locomotive hauled sets would be good. The MK3 carriages are getting old and will really need replacing soon.

Seriously? That'd be another dive in passenger satisfaction levels right there. I still get passengers asking me on hauled sets if they're in 1st class, the perception is that good. The 168s are also getting very tired inside and commuter (1/3 2/3 door positions) shouldn't have any place on London-Birmingham services. If you're going to replace the hauled sets then a full fleet replacement for the 'Mainline' trains is the way to go.

 

[swt class 450]

I find the 168s to be very comfortable and nice to travel on. Personally i prefer them to the MK3s on the locomotive hauled trains. I find that the 168s are much more suitable with the wide double doors at 1/3 and 2/3 positions instead of the narrow single doors at each ends that the MK3s have. Especially during the peak hours this layout of the 168s does really help. It is quite noticeable that the MK3s don't cope as well at busy peak times as they get more overcrowded with less standing room and much longer dwell times at stations as it takes longer to board and alight.

 

[Meerkat]

How difficult would electrification be? I see photos of Chiltern trains in the London area going under some very low girder bridges which must be very hard to raise, and aren’t the tunnels near Marylebone more like covered ways, with no arch to give height for wires?

 

[swt class 450]

Ideally it would be best to electrify the Chiltern Railways routes using third rail instead of overhead wires. They already travel over a long section of third rail tracks between Harrow On The Hill and Amersham so it would make much more sense to just electify the rest of the network using third rail as well.