Chiltern 68 Hauled Future

[FABG]

Before Covid, there were 5 sets of Chiltern 68s running, one of them being the slam door set. As of now there are only 3, all being the express with the Commuter slam door set having disappeared. Does anyone here know, 1. If the Chiltern Sets are completely withdawn soon, 2, if not will they brig back all 5 diagrams, and 3, what happened to the Slam Door set and if it will ever come back. Thank you

 

[Starmill]

The slam-door set has been withdrawn. I think that it was mostly scrapped? In general slam-doors are not permitted to be used, but there are some derogations for limited applications such as the Night Riviera.

It's likely that the modified sets which remain will continue for a short while and then be withdrawn. A direct replacement seems unlikely, although there are some options depending on the exact position at the time, for example some 172s might be available.

 

[Andyjs247]

There were some ex-Chiltern Mk3 vehicles from the slam door set at Great Yarmouth when I visited in May.

 

[XCTurbostar]

If there was any time where all four silver sets should be in use.. its now during the Commonwealth Games.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 31 Jul 2022 ==

There were some ex-Chiltern Mk3 vehicles from the slam door set at Great Yarmouth when I visited in May.

Eastern Rail Services own the slam door set coaches: 12094, 12043, 12017, 12036

 

[HamworthyGoods]

If there was any time where all four silver sets should be in use.. its now during the Commonwealth Games.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 31 Jul 2022 ==


Eastern Rail Services own the slam door set coaches: 12094, 12043, 12017, 12036

Diagramming a fleet with 100% availability is very optimistic!

 

[XCTurbostar]

Diagramming a fleet with 100% availability is very optimistic!

That is very true but two of the sets sit around at Marylebone for hours.. I don't call that utilised.

 

[Suraggu]

Their future in terms of how long they stay with the business has not been confirmed externally (aka to the rail press etc) but there has been movement.

They will be replaced by DMU/DEMU at some point in the near future however, that is certain and has been confirmed.

 

[newtownmgr]

The slam-door set has been withdrawn. I think that it was mostly scrapped? In general slam-doors are not permitted to be used, but there are some derogations for limited applications such as the Night Riviera.

It's likely that the modified sets which remain will continue for a short while and then be withdrawn. A direct replacement seems unlikely, although there are some options depending on the exact position at the time, for example some 172s might be available.

Where would the 172’s be available from. WMR is the only operator & all the sets are staying on a permanent basis until further new trains are ordered. The 196’s are replacing 170’s only.

 

[Class172]

A direct replacement seems unlikely, although there are some options depending on the exact position at the time, for example some 172s might be available.

172s? I don’t think so. They form part of WMTs core fleet and there are no plans that I’m aware of for them to move to another operator.

 

[Nova1]

Plus chiltern just gave up their four 172 sets to WMR…

 

[Starmill]

172s? I don’t think so. They form part of WMTs core fleet and there are no plans that I’m aware of for them to move to another operator.

The DMU fleet will be well over strength between the arrival of the last 196 and the start of services on East West Rail.

It had been put forward that Chiltern would lease some or all of the 175s, but this seems less likely given the availability of depot space and their expense. This also depends on whether Transport for Wales are able to secure any 175s as replacements for 153s and 230s. Again this doesn't seem likely that they will be in time.

 

[newtownmgr]

The DMU fleet will be well over strength between the arrival of the last 196 and the start of services on East West Rail.

It had been put forward that Chiltern would lease some or all of the 175s, but this seems less likely given the availability of depot space and their expense. This also depends on whether Transport for Wales are able to secure any 175s as replacements for 153s and 230s. Again this doesn't seem likely that they will be in time.

175’s now? Tfw already operate the 175’s so won’t have to secure any sets as replacements. As regards the DMU fleet being over strength. No it won’t. All services on core routes will be come minimum 4 car & The Camp Hill services will be introduced in the next couple of years.

 

[Starmill]

175’s now?

It's clearly been under consideration internally as it is one of the options which has appeared in the franchise documents.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 1 Aug 2022 ==

Tfw already operate the 175’s so won’t have to secure any sets as replacements.

They will if they want to stop them from leaving.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 1 Aug 2022 ==

As regards the DMU fleet being over strength. No it won’t. All services on core routes will be come minimum 4 car & The Camp Hill services will be introduced in the next couple of years.

They will. Otherwise there will be no units for East West Rail.

 

[Class172]

They will. Otherwise there will be no units for East West Rail.

I don’t see any equivalence between the possibility of 6 2-car 196s being sent to cover the initial service period for East-West Rail and your initial idea that a fleet of 39 class 172 trainsets that has only recently been consolidated to one operator should be redistributed again. 196s haven’t even been delivered yet.

There’s also the fact that the Snow Hill line services were reduced from 6tph to 4tph as a result of Covid. Whilst the current plan is for this to be retained for now, I wouldn’t be surprised if the plan for 196s to EWR is contingent on the assumption that this remains the case, which is not guaranteed.

newtownmgr is right, there is no oversupply of DMUs at WMR.

 

[Starmill]

I don’t see any equivalence between the possibility of 6 2-car 196s being sent to cover the initial service period for East-West Rail

Six two cars is a sensible replacement in cost terms for the Chiltern locomotive hauled sets. It's also more flexible for Chiltern and they can deploy them quickly.

newtownmgr is right, there is no oversupply of DMUs at WMR.

There is. There are six two cars which won't be needed between 2023 and 2025.

196s haven’t even been delivered yet.

The locomotive hauled trains haven't been withdrawn yet.

There’s also the fact that the Snow Hill line services were reduced from 6tph to 4tph as a result of Covid. Whilst the current plan is for this to be retained for now, I wouldn’t be surprised if the plan for 196s to EWR is contingent on the assumption that this remains the case, which is not guaranteed.

The service isn't going to be increasing again by 2025. Even if it were, WMT wouldn't be offered any more units to work it.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Six two cars is a sensible replacement in cost terms for the Chiltern locomotive hauled sets. It's also more flexible for Chiltern and they can deploy them quickly.

Rather than give Chiltern a microfleet from WMT it'd make more sense to move some services over to WMT. Examples of possibilities are the Leamington-Stratford shuttle, or stopping running to Kidderminster entirely and WMT running connections.

 

[Starmill]

Rather than give Chiltern a microfleet from WMT it'd make more sense to move some services over to WMT. Examples of possibilities are the Leamington-Stratford shuttle, or stopping running to Kidderminster entirely and WMT running connections.

They will probably just withdraw the Chiltern services between Birmingham Snow Hill and Kidderminster without a replacement. I agree it would make vastly more sense to withdraw the Leamington Spa - Birmingham Moor Street Chiltern service completely and absorb it into the reworked Snow Hill lines service. Transfer of the Stratford-upon-Avon services is also practical. But that's only two units rather than six.

Of course in the new world it really doesn't make any difference at all who operates the service. Chiltern could simply withdraw some of their Birmingham services and WMT could run some through to Banbury to fill the gap. It's purely about doing whatever is practical from the point of view of minimising the training requirement, either for Chiltern crews to learn 172s or WMT crews to learn Banbury.

Either way some Chiltern services will need to be reduced, either through fewer carriages or fewer train km. Of course if they can persuade the Department there's a case for spending more on rolling stock that changes things. But don't count on it.

There are also going to be some off lease 156s but these are slow, inefficient to run and maintain and bad for local air quality. It's more likely they'll be scrapped.

 

[87015]

There aren’t any services beyond Snow Hill to withdraw and save stock as all that runs is for stabling and servicing, which you’d still need.

 

[Starmill]

There aren’t any services beyond Snow Hill to withdraw and save stock as all that runs is for stabling and servicing, which you’d still need.

The fleet would be reducing in total size so it wouldn't be out of the question for them no longer to use Stourbridge.

 

[warwickshire]

Or possibly keep some Mk3s reduce them for Kidderminster to London Marylebone only.
But no longer on the Oxford.
Also at Oxford Gwr and Network Rail aren't keen with the moves into Hinksey yard because it can cause a bottleneck of services in the evening.
Less fleet mk3. Also means more reliable services and cheaper to run.
Saves costs as well. Less to run. More reliable and cheaper maintenance as well.

 

[Suraggu]

There is still a commitment to run services from the Snow Hill lines to London so this idea of just losing BSW -KID extensions is folly.

There will be replacement rolling stock, it's part of the NRC.

 

[Starmill]

There is still a commitment to run services from the Snow Hill lines to London so this idea of just losing BSW -KID extensions is folly.

There will be replacement rolling stock, it's part of the NRC.

The draft publication leaves the possibility of their being withdrawn without a replacement on the table.

 

[Suraggu]

The draft publication leaves the possibility of their being withdrawn without a replacement on the table.

I understand internal information isn't meant for public knowledge and not to be leaked etc etc but internal documentation states a need for replacement and a business case is well underway for that.

Whether the DfT allows the funding for that however, is a different matter.

 

[Starmill]

I understand internal information isn't meant for public knowledge and not to be leaked etc etc but internal documentation states a need for replacement and a business case is well underway for that.

Whether the DfT allows the funding for that however, is a different matter.

I really don't get why people are still in denial about this. The 442s had all of that work done and were then abandoned barely used. Why? To save money. There are Voyagers off lease while CrossCountry are claiming they're short. Why? To save money. Southern's 455s were sent off at lease end when they said it would leave them short. Why? To save money.

If there weren't a business case being prepared for a solution under these circumstances I'd be quite concerned. But if you refer back to what I said it's that it's a clear possibility that this small fleet of non-standard rolling stock will be withdrawn without a replacement. There are other fleets with a similar target on their heads in the next few years including the Northern 769s, WMT 230s and XC HSTs. They also all have in common that they're less reliable than the mainstay fleet in their areas which makes them more costly to maintain in relative terms.

 

[Mzzzs]

Surely a replacement for the loco hauled stock won’t be a a small sub fleet but rather a large order to replace class 165 as well.
This makes most sense for cost as a small fleet of units would surely have a high cost per unit compared to a order of 35 units.
Or some adjustments to the timetable could write loco haul out like southern did.

 

[JonathanH]

Surely a replacement for the loco hauled stock won’t be a a small sub fleet but rather a large order to replace class 165 as well.

The 165s don't reportedly need replacement until around the end of the decade. The mark 3 sets reportedly need to go sooner. Replacement of 165s is rather blighted by how future trains on the line are to be powered.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Surely a replacement for the loco hauled stock won’t be a a small sub fleet but rather a large order to replace class 165 as well.
This makes most sense for cost as a small fleet of units would surely have a high cost per unit compared to a order of 35 units.
Or some adjustments to the timetable could write loco haul out like southern did.

The only thing that should replace 165s is EMUs.

 

[Nova1]

The only thing that should replace 165s is EMUs.

…which just rolls us back to the c argument that the chiltern main line should be next up for electrification, and also the snow hill lines or your shiny chiltern EMU can’t get to Kidderminster

 

[Bletchleyite]

…which just rolls us back to the c argument that the chiltern main line should be next up for electrification, and also the snow hill lines or your shiny chiltern EMU can’t get to Kidderminster

Realistically that electrification would be in stages, first to High Wycombe (getting rid of some 165s), then possibly Oxford/Bicester (that should be enough to bin all of them), then all the way. The Snow Hill lines do need doing but that'll be a separate project (could well of course happen first!). The through Kidderminster service isn't crucial and could be removed for the interim period. Potentially depending on timing it could start at both ends.

Depending on how long it's going to take it could be worth getting some bi-modes (e.g. 80x) for the long distance stuff so as to get all diesel out of London, I suppose.

Then after that you've got all the 168s and 172s (WMR) to cascade to allow ex-BR DMUs to be scrapped.

 

[43096]

Realistically that electrification would be in stages, first to High Wycombe (getting rid of some 165s), then possibly Oxford/Bicester (that should be enough to bin all of them), then all the way. The Snow Hill lines do need doing but that'll be a separate project (could well of course happen first!). The through Kidderminster service isn't crucial and could be removed for the interim period. Potentially depending on timing it could start at both ends.

Depending on how long it's going to take it could be worth getting some bi-modes (e.g. 80x) for the long distance stuff so as to get all diesel out of London, I suppose.

80x would be massively over specified from a technical point of view for the 100mph Chiltern route. Stadler FLIRTs á la Greater Anglia, on the other hand, would be better matched and give a far superior customer environment to the ****achi dross.