Isn't the premise that action is needed now rather than once some additional infrastructure work (eg installing sidings and changing signals) or driver training (eg TFW staff learning Newton Heath) can be completed.
If money is to be spent on sidings it might as well be spent on the Castlefield corridor.
Quite. Most of the solutions offered on this (and other) threads are, at best, long term (years not months). Either they are not compatible with the existing infrastructure, and/or they involve some combination of new rolling stock/franchise remapping/a major timetable recast, with repercussions far beyond Manchester.
For example, rerouting the TPE Leeds - Airport services via Guide Bridge and terminating them in the Piccadilly main shed instead (a perennial favourite on RailUK) would be impractical. Picc Platforms 1 - 4 are pretty much maxed out with the existing services. Increases in train length have reduced the scope for multiple occupancy. Likewise it is a non-starter to terminate these services at Victoria. The Vic bay platforms 1 & 2 are too short for TPE's new 5-car trains.
Before May 2018 there were 8 passenger services per hour between Oxford Road and Piccadilly; although far from perfect, the timetable worked passably well. IMO a reasonable near term objective would be to prune services back to that level, but by "quick and dirty" culling of services from the current 11tph timetable, with only local changes, rather than attempting to roll back the 2018 recast.
Comparing the current Oxford Road - Piccadilly timetable with pre-2018, there are now 6 Northern services (+2), 3 TPE (+1), 1 EMR (same) and 1 TfW (same). Breaking these down between the major corridors out of Manchester, but ignoring the changes to the cross-Manchester linkages, we have:
- Liverpool via Warrington: 2tph (no change)
- Chester/beyond: 1tph (no change)
- Liverpool via Chat Moss: 1tph (no change)
- Southport: 1tph (no change)
- Preston/beyond: 4tph (+1tph)
- Leeds/beyond via Victoria: 2tph (+2tph)
- Leeds/beyond via Guide Bridge: 0tph (-1tph)
- Stockport/beyond: 3tph (+1tph)
- Airport/beyond: 8tph (+3tph*)
*Although, including services from the main shed, the Airport line frequency has dropped from 10tph to 9tph in total.
In view of this, I would suggest the following three services as the least worst options for temporary culling, oending infrastructure improvements:
- Liverpool - Crewe via Airport stopper to be split into separate Liverpool - Victoria and Piccadilly - Crewe via Airport portions. This already happens for two hours in the evening, so clearly paths to/from Victoria and the Piccadilly main shed could be made available in the standard hour too. Clearly this split would be inconvenient for those travelling between Chat Moss stations and Piccadilly or the Airport, but they already have that inconvenience in the evening peak. This is currently one of the services with a crew change at Oxford Road, bringing a consequent risk of delay.
- Barrow/Windermere - Airport to be cut back to Preston. Before 2018 the direct Cumbria - Airport services were less frequent and were portion worked with Blackpool services from Preston. Portion working is no longer feasible and the change at Preston would unfortunately increase journey times. But the other 3tph between Preston and Piccadilly (from Blackpool and Scotland) are being strengthened. This curtailment would reduce diesel running under the wires and release 195s to strengthen other Northern services. Wigan would lose its non-stop service to Manchester via Golborne, but this was originally introduced as a short term measure to enable TPE to start using 350s before Salford - Euxton was wired. In the 2015 ITT, it was optional for Northern to continue using this route, although Arriva chose to take up the option.
- Newcastle - Manchester Airport to be cut back to Leeds. This service is immediately followed throgh the TPE core, in both directions, by the Hull - Piccadilly via Guide Bridge service, which is being strengthened to 6-car. There are connections at Stalybridge to/from the Northern Stalybridge - Victoria stopper. Newcastle would still have 1tph direct to Victoria. The reduction from 5tph to 4tph fast services would undoubtedly improve punctuality through the transpennine core as well as the Castlefield corridor. Unfortunately the prized 4tph clockface service between Leeds and Victoria would be lost, but "you can't make an omelette without breaking eggs!" An option might be to swap the Hull and Newcastle paths at Leeds, if it is considered preferable to have a Newcastle to Piccadilly via Guide Bridge service and cut the Hull service back to Leeds.
The "holes" these cuts would leave in the corridor timetable would be distributed through the hour and so greatly increase resilience to delays. The Piccadilly - Airport service would be reduced from 9tph to 7tph, but there might be scope to reintroduce the Northern hourly shuttle that was culled in 2018.
Of the above three proposals, #3 would clearly be the most controversial and probably politically unacceptable. But there are no easy, painless options to reduce congestion in the near term. Even if only the two Northern services were culled it would be better than nothing.