Cascade timetable

[ess]

Are there are definite timetables for rolling stock cascades or just vague documents which detail possible options?

 

[swt_passenger]

The answer is probably seen in the number of random threads here proposing all sorts of cascades. If there is a discrete and accurate long term plan, no-one is ever referring to it.

Generally people are piecing together info gleaned from franchise ITTs, Route strategies, various rolling stock orders, DfT announcements, and NR enhancement plans and putting two and two together.

ATOC did produce a 'rolling stock strategy update' earlier in the year, someone mentioned it here but it didn't raise much interest IIRC. I've bolded the key word:

The Strategy is NOT a cascade plan for the deployment of rolling stock. It is intended to help inform Government on potential approaches to rail strategy and to stimulate the industry to develop and deliver optimised whole-life, whole-system, rolling stock investments. We believe that the best way of achieving the latter is through the franchising process as this should provide market-driven solutions, procured in a competitive environment, growing the long-term value generated by these businesses.

http://www.atoc.org/clientfiles/files/Rolling Stock Strategy February 2013 - Final 11022013.pdf

 

[PHILIPE]

There are planned cascade timetables but because everything now seems to slip back, they then become vague.

 

[swt_passenger]

There are planned cascade timetables but because everything now seems to slip back, they then become vague.

Yes there are, but I got the impression the OP was hoping there'd be some sort of 'master plan' publicly available. Possibly reading too much into the thread title...

 

[Beveridges]

What will the HST's & 91's get cascaded onto when the Class 800's & 801's come out ?

 

[Class 170101]

I thought this board did a better job at producing a cascade timetable review than the DfT

http://www.railforums.co.uk/showthread.php?t=89934

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Well you can say there is certainty about the Thameslink, Crossrail and IEP cascades because they are written into contracts (or at least ITTs).
So that's a pile of 319/377/387/315/16x/225/HSTs coming free at reasonably certain dates.
From the NR CP5 plans you can also make a stab at when new electrification schemes will need new or old EMUs and allow diesel stock to be recycled.
At the other end of the scale are the lease end dates currently contracted with the ROSCOs (eg all the Voyagers are leased to VT/XC up to March 2016).
Everything else is up for grabs.

It mostly depends on the scope given to TOCs in new franchise agreements, but it is becoming apparent that they are not being given very much of that in the short-term direct awards.
Then there's the whole question of upgrades, disability regulations, ERTMS fitment etc, which may force scrappage of otherwise serviceable kit.
313s and 442s apparently come into that bracket.
Hopefully Pacers will go the same way...

 

[northwichcat]

I thought this board did a better job at producing a cascade timetable review than the DfT

http://www.railforums.co.uk/showthread.php?t=89934

There's numerous things which are guess work in that e.g. cascade of 156s from Scotrail to Northern seeing the Heaton 142s withdrawn.

The timeline for scrapping Pacers is also out by at least 4 years. We can expect that to start in 2018 at the earliest, not 2014 as that post suggests. The person who wrote that post was assuming 0% extra capacity for routes not getting electrified, no new services and that Northern could secure enough 319s to switch all their Chat Moss services to EMUs this December, we now know for certain that those assumptions are wrong from the recent Northern and DfT press releases.

 

[Class 170101]

True but I doubt the DfT would willingly do any better.