Carmarthen to Aberystwyth Reopening?

[Greenback]

Many railways were originally speculative, in the sense that there was no way to tell what level of mineral traffic there might be, and in some cases whether there would be any real minerals traffic at all.

But these were true private ventures in age of speculation, often largely funded by landowners and those with capital made through other ventures.

These days the climate is quite different. We live in a much more regulated world where labour is not as cheap or as disposable as it once was, there is a greater focus on health and safety and there are all sorts of planning controls in place.

It would be a lot more expensive to build new lines today, comparitively speaking, and there are many more alternatives to transport goods and humans around as well. It's highly doubtful whether any private group of speculators would see the financial sense in committing to a project which did not have solid grounds for financial success.

Having said all that, I agree it's important to view roads and railways as engines of growth, and both are necessary for our economic well being.

However, in the case of Carmarthen - Aberystwyth reopening, there are far better ways to spend any money that's available for such a project.

 

[merlodlliw]

The SoS for Wales has just told MPs that he is shortly to meet with the campaign group to discuss the business case.

In my opinion I don't see a business case however the Sec Of State for Wales will need convincing,

 

[PHILIPE]

Business cases can produce the wrong figures. Following the re-opening of the Ebbw Vale line in 2008, passenger numbers by far exceeded the expectations and there is now a struggle to provide additional capacity, both track and resources.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Taking an economic comparison of the length of the Ebbw Vale line and the length of the Carmarthen to Aberystwyth line project, what projected financial figures are in the public domain for the total signalling and infrastructural requirement costs that will be required to deliver the west coastal line?

 

[Greenback]

While I've often thought that the projected usage for reopening projects is usually on the low or cautious side, as with Ebbw Vale, even if the projected figures were wildly exaggerated for Carmarthen to Aberystwyth the rural nature of the area the line passes through, and the lack of any major population centres means I still don't think it would be seriously considered at this time by anyone in government.

I'm a big supporter of rail, and I don't like being negative, but this is a pie in the sky idea at the moment that is only even being acknowledged in high places because of the coming elections.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Taking an economic comparison of the length of the Ebbw Vale line and the length of the Carmarthen to Aberystwyth line project, what projected financial figures are in the public domain for the total signalling and infrastructural requirement costs that will be required to deliver the west coastal line?

The figures from Traws Link are an estimate based on reopened lines elsewhere there's no official figure. WG say they sent staff to survey the route and found the trackbed built on in a lot of place and even claimed they couldn't find it in others. Traws Link contend this quite strongly!

 

[merlodlliw]

While I've often thought that the projected usage for reopening projects is usually on the low or cautious side, as with Ebbw Vale, even if the projected figures were wildly exaggerated for Carmarthen to Aberystwyth the rural nature of the area the line passes through, and the lack of any major population centres means I still don't think it would be seriously considered at this time by anyone in government.

I'm a big supporter of rail, and I don't like being negative, but this is a pie in the sky idea at the moment that is only even being acknowledged in high places because of the coming elections.

It would appear the South Wales Valley lines have always had good support,it comes as no surprise the Ebbw line with its new station at Pye Corner is exceeding expectations, however this line connects with areas of high population,whereas Carmarthen to Aberyswyth does not.
I understand one of the reasons for closure was little passenger usage,that was according to an excellent BBCWales series on forgotten lines in Wales.
We have two elections in Wales this year and next,otherwise it would not arise the interest of Politicians in my opinion

 

[Greenback]

It would appear the South Wales Valley lines have always had good support,it comes as no surprise the Ebbw line with its new station at Pye Corner is exceeding expectations, however this line connects with areas of high population,whereas Carmarthen to Aberyswyth does not.

Exactly. The nature of the area means that buses and coaches are better suited to providing this service.

I understand one of the reasons for closure was little passenger usage,that was according to an excellent BBCWales series on forgotten lines in Wales.
We have two elections in Wales this year and next,otherwise it would not arise the interest of Politicians in my opinion

In fairness, the passenger service was pretty sparse. A reopened line may attract more people, especially with a more frequent timetable. I understand that the traffic around Carmarthen can be pretty bad at certain times, too, which could well help.

Against that, though, the roads in both of the towns concerned have been improved since the line was closed, and the stations at many of the intermediate stops were not that convenient for the places they served.

Even taking all of the positives into account, I can't see there being a sufficient level of usage to make this viable, and I agree that it's only the elections that are making the politicians take any interest in what is being proposed.

 

[krus_aragon]

Please can someone name me a railway built in this country whereby the business case "stacked up"?

Mineral railways included several sound investments (but also the expected basket cases). The Ffestiniog Railway was successful enough it had to obtain locomotives, replacing horse-drawn/gravity operated trains, in order to accelerate and lengthen the trains.

The Taff Vale railway was built to serve an existing market for coal shipment, hitherto served by the Glamorganshire Canal. It saw so much traffic that the single line with loops started to be doubled throughout (later quadrupled Cardiff-Pontypridd), and was paying its shareholders dividends averaging 12 1/2% between 1870-78. So many mineral prospectors set up in the area that the railway was saturated with traffic, with empty wagon trains sometimes taking up to 24 hours to travel the 20 miles or so back north from Cardiff; crews would go out to relive a train part-way along the route, and be relieved themselves before the train got to its destination!

Even after the disgruntled coal magnate David Davies built his Barry Railway and associated docks to syphon off traffic and profits, the Taff Vale remained profitable right through to the Great War. Remember that the likes of the Taff Vale, Rhymney and Barry railways were grouped together as constituent companies equal to the (original) GWR into the new post-1923 Great Western Railway, despite the GWR having over ten times more route mileage than all the South Wales valleys companies combined. That's how profitable they were.

Mind you, these days, rail-based freight is no longer the driving force that it was, and passenger services are now the lifeblood of the network. Passenger railways in Wales didn't see the same success, by and large. The largest non-freight flows were originally pasenger and mail travel to and from Ireland, via Holyhead or Pembrokshire. The Chester and Holyhead Railway outstretched themselves in chasing both the lucrative railway and steamship mail contracts, while also fending off their big brother the LNWR (who they needed to convey the traffic between Chester and London). After some years of arguing over the steamship contract they were swallowed up by the LNWR.

In the late 19th Century, the LNWR and Cambrian were able to make a good trade in seaside holidays, developing coastal resorts that doubtlessly contributed handsomely to their bottom line. But with the development of the motor car and the jet plane, this is another market that has paled. Nowadays, passenger traffic (and thus rail traffic) depends on high density populations and a good number of commuters, as demonstrated by the Maesteg/Ebbw Vale reopenings referred to by Greenback.

The population density is far lower outside of South-East Wales, so there are few places that a new line could find enough passengers to thrive. Caernarfon-Bangor is short enough, with a large enough population at either end, to be worth considering. Similarly, Llangefni-Gaerwen(-Bangor) is a short stretch that could serve as a railhead for Llangefni, central and northern Anglesey, and bypass the road bottlenecks across the Menai Straits. But the likes of Caernarfon-Afon Wen and Aberystwyth-Carmarthen are far longer lines (greater cost), and have little intermediate population along the way to add to revenue. Hence why the business case is seen as poor by many.

 

[Cardiffian]

The population density is far lower outside of South-East Wales, so there are few places that a new line could find enough passengers to thrive. Caernarfon-Bangor is short enough, with a large enough population at either end, to be worth considering. Similarly, Llangefni-Gaerwen(-Bangor) is a short stretch that could serve as a railhead for Llangefni, central and northern Anglesey, and bypass the road bottlenecks across the Menai Straits. But the likes of Caernarfon-Afon Wen and Aberystwyth-Carmarthen are far longer lines (greater cost), and have little intermediate population along the way to add to revenue. Hence why the business case is seen as poor by many.

Excellent summary! And I agree that Camarthen-Aber wouldn't be worth it for West Wales traffic flows. By contrast more capacity should be added in North Wales, despite the smaller population centres, because existing lines like Bangor-Caernarfon could be extended at reasonable cost.

I think rail investment in Wales should be about improving existing lines throughout the region and increasing station density in urban areas like Swansea and eastern Cardiff where provision is currently poor. Also some additional intermediate stations like Carno and Brackla should be built - surely not very costly?

However... the map tells me that Aberystwyth and Birmingham are both about 100 miles away from Cardiff, and both road and rail travel times to Brum are around 2 hours. By contrast, while Cardiff-Aber takes about 3 hours by car, by train it takes 4 hours with a change at Shrewsbury. Would there be a case for speeding up the Aber-Cardiff connection for strategic and governance reasons? Cardiff-Carmarthen is 1hr 40mins, so I wonder how long a reinstated Aber-Carmarthen service would take.

 

[Greenback]

Excellent summary! And I agree that Camarthen-Aber wouldn't be worth it for West Wales traffic flows. By contrast more capacity should be added in North Wales, despite the smaller population centres, because existing lines like Bangor-Caernarfon could be extended at reasonable cost.

I think rail investment in Wales should be about improving existing lines throughout the region and increasing station density in urban areas like Swansea and eastern Cardiff where provision is currently poor. Also some additional intermediate stations like Carno and Brackla should be built - surely not very costly?

Indeed, there are many improvements that could be made to the network that would be a fraction of the cost and provide just as many, if not more, benefits than reopening along lien through sparsely populated areas.

However... the map tells me that Aberystwyth and Birmingham are both about 100 miles away from Cardiff, and both road and rail travel times to Brum are around 2 hours. By contrast, while Cardiff-Aber takes about 3 hours by car, by train it takes 4 hours with a change at Shrewsbury. Would there be a case for speeding up the Aber-Cardiff connection for strategic and governance reasons? Cardiff-Carmarthen is 1hr 40mins, so I wonder how long a reinstated Aber-Carmarthen service would take.

Geography is an important factor. I think of it as being like a rectangle, with Cardiff and Aber at opposite corners. The quickest way between the two would be a diagonal, but there are mountains in the way, and not much in the way of population either.

To utilise Carmarthen - Aber would be similar to going via Shrewsbury, in that it would still follow two sides of the rectangle. It would probably be slightly quicker, but still wouldn't match the times by road utilising the M4.

I'm also not sure that there is such a demand for travel between Cardiff and intermediate places en route to Aberystwyth as there is between Cardiff and intermediate places on the way to Birmingham.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Excellent summary! And I agree that Camarthen-Aber wouldn't be worth it for West Wales traffic flows. By contrast more capacity should be added in North Wales, despite the smaller population centres, because existing lines like Bangor-Caernarfon could be extended at reasonable cost.

I think rail investment in Wales should be about improving existing lines throughout the region and increasing station density in urban areas like Swansea and eastern Cardiff where provision is currently poor. Also some additional intermediate stations like Carno and Brackla should be built - surely not very costly?

However... the map tells me that Aberystwyth and Birmingham are both about 100 miles away from Cardiff, and both road and rail travel times to Brum are around 2 hours. By contrast, while Cardiff-Aber takes about 3 hours by car, by train it takes 4 hours with a change at Shrewsbury. Would there be a case for speeding up the Aber-Cardiff connection for strategic and governance reasons? Cardiff-Carmarthen is 1hr 40mins, so I wonder how long a reinstated Aber-Carmarthen service would take.

The Aber to Cardiff connections at Shrewsbury have been the ones that's been prioritised since 2005. Sub 10 minute waits possible all day. As someone who travels regularly to Cardiff since 2002 I've seen no increase in numbers doing the journey, ORR figures show c 18,000 per annum doing it. There's nearly three times that number waiting 45 minutes for Manchester trains. Better Connections to NW England are what's wanted from the Cambrian we have 10 years of proof that Cardiff is a thin market.

 

[Greenback]

The thin market for public transport between Cardiff and Aber seems to be pretty well catered by rail via Shrewsbury, rail plus bus via Carmarthen, or direct coach.

 

[Cardiffian]

In that case, should the Carmarthen reopening campaign direct their efforts towards improving connections and train frequency on the Cambrian Line instead, e.g. one train per hour? (Assuming availability of new rolling stock etc). And would additional direct services going beyond Birmingham be useful?

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

The thin market for public transport between Cardiff and Aber seems to be pretty well catered by rail via Shrewsbury, rail plus bus via Carmarthen, or direct coach.

Spoken like a true son of Wales...

 

[ChiefPlanner]

The thin market for public transport between Cardiff and Aber seems to be pretty well catered by rail via Shrewsbury, rail plus bus via Carmarthen, or direct coach.

From what i hear - (not had time to do the run due to work / domestic issues)
- the bus link from Carmarthen to Aber is pretty good - and good value too. Look forward to doing it this year for a reunion in Aber. ......


Way back in the 1970's Crosville ran a couple of semi fast buses - the S51 from memory -to Ammanford - connecting nicely into the semi/fast ex Western Welsh 251 to Cardiff via Neath. A really good bit of integrated planning.....cost about £2 as well......single.

 

[Gareth Marston]

In that case, should the Carmarthen reopening campaign direct their efforts towards improving connections and train frequency on the Cambrian Line instead, e.g. one train per hour? (Assuming availability of new rolling stock etc). And would additional direct services going beyond Birmingham be useful?

There's probably more demand for through trains to London from Aberystwyth than will use the southbound link. Directing efforts into campaigning for improved connections at Shrewsbury to the north west of England would be more useful.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

From Cardiff to Merthyr Tydfil it's busy and it's dual carriageway. No real problems. From Merthyr to Brecon it's single carriageway through some outstanding scenery. There's a short dual carriageway round Brecon. From Brecon to Llangurig, I'm less familiar with it but some improvements have been made. Rhayader isn't traffic friendly. From Llangurig towards Caersws it's single carriageway - good scenery again, straightish in places with verges, and from Caersws towards Machynlleth it's simply awful. The problem is that it's single carriageway but here the verges are non-existent in many places, so that if you do need to take avoiding action, it's into a stone wall or high bank. The road plays ducks and drakes with the railway. (The railway got the straight route.) The locals "know" the road, and seem to me totally oblivious of the dangers - but many are driving Land-rovers etc...I always feel relieved to get home safely.

Your mention of Llangurig awoke the railway historian in me, whilst I was re-reading all the postings made on this particular thread in a quiet hour on a Sunday evening, this brought to mind the Llangurig branch line that started with great hopes to link the station of Llanidloes to that of Strata Florida that was on the line of this thread discussions, but after quite a number of years with some actual construction works started, was finally abandoned.

Perhaps the good and patient residents of Ystrad Meurig may suddenly realise that this planned line was taking a rather long time to serve their town..

 

[edwin_m]

Your mention of Llangurig awoke the railway historian in me, whilst I was re-reading all the postings made on this particular thread in a quiet hour on a Sunday evening, this brought to mind the Llangurig branch line that started with great hopes to link the station of Llanidloes to that of Strata Florida that was on the line of this thread discussions, but after quite a number of years with some actual construction works started, was finally abandoned.

Perhaps the good and patient residents of Ystrad Meurig may suddenly realise that this planned line was taking a rather long time to serve their town..

Llandiloes to Llangurig was shortest-lived railway in the UK according to Wikipedia, carrying only one service train.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Llandiloes to Llangurig was shortest-lived railway in the UK according to Wikipedia, carrying only one service train.

Never approved by board of trade the one train was an unofficial freight according to legend. You can still trace the route alongside the A470.

 

[Doctor Fegg]

Oh, if only it could be resurrected as a cycle track. The minor road between the two (part of NCN 8) is a beast of a climb.

 

[adamt958]

Would open up some impressive Cross Country routes if it came off, maybe run once daily from Birmingham New Street on a voyager. or once or twice daily extend the Nottingham - Cardiff Central 170. run it as a 4 car and split it at central so there is stock for the return running, have it run via the Swansea District Line calling at the new stations (proposed?) on there.

have a twice daily FGW HST from Paddington calling at Swansea and I think it may work.

couldn't run by local services alone. there wouldn't be the demand. as stated many times on here, although there are a lot of students in South Wales who attend Uni in Aberystwyth.

But as stated somewhere in this before, There would be more demand for a through service from Paddington than the local services.

 

[PHILIPE]

Would open up some impressive Cross Country routes if it came off, maybe run once daily from Birmingham New Street on a voyager. or once or twice daily extend the Nottingham - Cardiff Central 170. run it as a 4 car and split it at central so there is stock for the return running, have it run via the Swansea District Line calling at the new stations (proposed?) on there.

have a twice daily FGW HST from Paddington calling at Swansea and I think it may work.

couldn't run by local services alone. there wouldn't be the demand. as stated many times on here, although there are a lot of students in South Wales who attend Uni in Aberystwyth.

But as stated somewhere in this before, There would be more demand for a through service from Paddington than the local services.

Are you on the right thread ? Or is it just trivia.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Would open up some impressive Cross Country routes if it came off, maybe run once daily from Birmingham New Street on a voyager. or once or twice daily extend the Nottingham - Cardiff Central 170. run it as a 4 car and split it at central so there is stock for the return running, have it run via the Swansea District Line calling at the new stations (proposed?) on there.

have a twice daily FGW HST from Paddington calling at Swansea and I think it may work.

couldn't run by local services alone. there wouldn't be the demand. as stated many times on here, although there are a lot of students in South Wales who attend Uni in Aberystwyth.

But as stated somewhere in this before, There would be more demand for a through service from Paddington than the local services.

Via Machynlleth, Newtown , Shrewsbury and Birmingham from Aberystwyth.

 

[Llanigraham]

Gareth,
I suspect there are some on here who don't actually understand the geography, population or how the area "works", looking at some of the fanciful notions being suggested.
Let us be quite honest, the whole proposal is a pipe dream, and nothing more than that.

 

[Tumbleweed]

Any railway scheme is a pipe dream to the powers that be these days.
Camarthen to Aberystwyth looks great to connect the West with Cardiff by rail but that's how far the benefit goes. Sparse population a lot of which live away from the route of the line.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Gareth,
I suspect there are some on here who don't actually understand the geography, population or how the area "works", looking at some of the fanciful notions being suggested.
Let us be quite honest, the whole proposal is a pipe dream, and nothing more than that.

SARPA have got the Plaid candidate for Montgomeryshire coming to their meeting in the Unicorn, Caersws on Tuesday evening. No doubt we might hear something from them on the subject.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Any railway scheme is a pipe dream to the powers that be these days.
Camarthen to Aberystwyth looks great to connect the West with Cardiff by rail but that's how far the benefit goes. Sparse population a lot of which live away from the route of the line.

I think that sums it up nicely - (though plenty of similar comments in this thread before now...)

A tale from the past about loadings on some of these trains - in 1947 - my late father and a good friend cycled to Aberaeron from Brynamman - this took the best part of 2 days ! (with a tent of course) - they developed a puncture on one of the bikes around Cilliae Aeron , "no problem said a friendly farmer" - who stood on the line to Lampeter and flagged down the local passenger train to Lampeter. Train stopped in section - bikes loaded on - no question of a ticket - no other passengers on board.

Says it all really ....

 

[6Gman]

SARPA have got the Plaid candidate for Montgomeryshire coming to their meeting in the Unicorn, Caersws on Tuesday evening. No doubt we might hear something from them on the subject.

Well, since the Plaid candidate for Montgomeryshire is about as likely to be elected as I am to be the next CE of Network Rail ........

 

[Llanigraham]

SARPA have got the Plaid candidate for Montgomeryshire coming to their meeting in the Unicorn, Caersws on Tuesday evening. No doubt we might hear something from them on the subject.

What time?
I may come over.