can public transport ever recover from COVID-19

[bramling]

And that many people currently have to work from home in spaces that may be cramped and/or not suitable.

Two issues with WFH:

1) Many of those who wax lyrical about it are fortunate enough to have spacious houses with gardens. Not everyone has this.

2) Reality is a lot of work *isn't* getting done, or is being done in a half-baked fashion.

In time I suspect these factors will mean this revolution will wither away.

 

[The Ham]

Two issues with WFH:

1) Many of those who wax lyrical about it are fortunate enough to have spacious houses with gardens. Not everyone has this.

2) Reality is a lot of work *isn't* getting done, or is being done in a half-baked fashion.

In time I suspect these factors will mean this revolution will wither away.

Whilst I agree with the two points, I disagree with the conclusion. In that WFH would continue (although not at the current level), however with limitations (such as for specific projects or for specific time periods and for specific staff).

As not all projects (especially those where there's a need for a lot of communication needed between staff or those which are short) would be suitable to be done from home.

By having limits on when WFH could be done would overcome a of the above issues, by giving time to do those things which work better in person.

Likewise not all staff would be suitable or wish to want to WFH.

However any extra WFH could impact road use more than public transport use, mostly due to the high up front costs of car ownership. Even if that impact only means some extra leisure travel.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Let us not forget that working from home is good for the ecology anyway. Exception might be someone heating their flat/house a lot more because they are in it all day instead of each end of the day. Won't apply where there are pre-school age children, disable persons or retired people in the same household. My point is that the rail travel levels will never completely return to pre Covid-19 levels.

On the railways, how close to those pre-Covid-19 levels things return and how soon - we will just have to wait and see. But I can imagine that car transport will take a bigger hit as that is less ecological then rail (and other public transport). So there will be measures taken to soak up the spare public transport capacity. Personally I would not want to use public transport that is so crowded as before.

 

[The Ham]

Let us not forget that working from home is good for the ecology anyway. Exception might be someone heating their flat/house a lot more because they are in it all day instead of each end of the day. Won't apply where there are pre-school age children, disable persons or retired people in the same household. My point is that the rail travel levels will never completely return to pre Covid-19 levels.

On the railways, how close to those pre-Covid-19 levels things return and how soon - we will just have to wait and see. But I can imagine that car transport will take a bigger hit as that is less ecological then rail (and other public transport). So there will be measures taken to soak up the spare public transport capacity. Personally I would not want to use public transport that is so crowded as before.

I suspect that just by removing the enhancements costs from the sums that each "TOC" would be much better anyway.

Whilst a fall would be a fall, a 20% fall would only roll us back to 2012 passenger numbers, so if it takes another 7 years after a 3 year period of things being artificially low before we get to 2019 levels then 2030 could be comparable to 2018 and 2027 comparable to 2015 then things could be not too bad.

 

[DB]

Two issues with WFH:

1) Many of those who wax lyrical about it are fortunate enough to have spacious houses with gardens. Not everyone has this.

2) Reality is a lot of work *isn't* getting done, or is being done in a half-baked fashion.

In time I suspect these factors will mean this revolution will wither away.

I expect it will stay at a higher level than it was before March, but I don't think it's going to become 'the norm' for anywhere near as many jobs as some have been suggesting - a lot of people actually aren't as keen once the novelty has worn off, and employers will increasingly be seeing the problems with it - jobs not done as effectively, lack of interaction between staff, people trying to combine home working and childcare, etc.

 

[Mintona]

Can't see there being much demand for that in this weather.

Given there is now no possibility of improvement in railway finances in the foreseeable future the DfT should just bite the bullet and get on with right sizing the industry for the Covid world. The current situation is not sustainable.

Where do you begin?

 

[trainophile]

Two issues with WFH:

1) Many of those who wax lyrical about it are fortunate enough to have spacious houses with gardens. Not everyone has this.

2) Reality is a lot of work *isn't* getting done, or is being done in a half-baked fashion.

In time I suspect these factors will mean this revolution will wither away.

I noticed this morning on our local (Midlands) political programme an MP who appeared to be broadcasting from his bedroom, complete with wardrobe and unmade bed in the background. Didn't catch who he was but would be interested to know why he appears not to have a house with an office, on an MP's salary.

 

[387star]

Public transport is more attractive now the pacers and 153s are disappearing with many new trains around

 

[Jamesrob637]

Public transport is more attractive now the pacers and 153s are disappearing with many new trains around

We need those to strengthen for the time being. At least pax have a choice of unit on those services.

 

[Jimini]

I noticed this morning on our local (Midlands) political programme an MP who appeared to be broadcasting from his bedroom, complete with wardrobe and unmade bed in the background. Didn't catch who he was but would be interested to know why he appears not to have a house with an office, on an MP's salary.

We live in a one bedroom flat in London and are both WFH. I've done more Zoom calls perched on the end of our bed with the laptop on the bedside table than I can remember. So yes, it's certainly not this idyllic set up that some folk seem to percieve it as! Don't worry, I always make sure the bed is made

 

[Horizon22]

On the railways, how close to those pre-Covid-19 levels things return and how soon - we will just have to wait and see. But I can imagine that car transport will take a bigger hit as that is less ecological then rail (and other public transport). So there will be measures taken to soak up the spare public transport capacity. Personally I would not want to use public transport that is so crowded as before.

Car usage - in London anyway - is at almost 100% of pre-Covid levels so I'm not so confident that will be the case, at least in the short/medium-term. That is a shame though especially if we want to "build back greener".

 

[DB]

Car usage - in London anyway - is at almost 100% of pre-Covid levels so I'm not so confident that will be the case, at least in the short/medium-term. That is a shame though especially if we want to "build back greener".

It's going to be difficult to undo the message that other people are unclean and should be kept away from.

 

[Bikeman78]

It's going to be difficult to undo the message that other people are unclean and should be kept away from.

When lockdown eased, I spent most days off travelling around by train. No health problems whatsoever. Recently a few people have tested positive for Covid in work. Wouldn't it be ironic if I caught it in my "Covid-safe" office.

 

[The Ham]

It's going to be difficult to undo the message that other people are unclean and should be kept away from.

I suspect that sort term you might be right, however with a slightly lower level of rail use for commuting there's likely to be more space for a bit.

If we see an increase in capacity to allow for a better level of space between passengers (as even fewer will wish to be like sardines, so there's likely to be a significant amount of pressure to ensure that we don't end back at overloaded trains) then I suspect that passenger numbers will have scope to grow over the next decade.

 

[westv]

Hull Trains will suspend services from Thursday.

 

[Scotrail314209]

Hull Trains will suspend services from Thursday.

I'm not hopeful they will recover from it this time, which is a shame. It'll be a big dent on Hull if they don't recover.

 

[yorksrob]

How well have HT been doing since the last lockdown ? When I went on GC it was pretty busy.

 

[trebor79]

GA rural services seemed relatively busy today, most passengers I've seen since March, though still not a patch on normal loadings.

 

[dan5324]

Let us not forget that working from home is good for the ecology anyway. Exception might be someone heating their flat/house a lot more because they are in it all day instead of each end of the day. Won't apply where there are pre-school age children, disable persons or retired people in the same household. My point is that the rail travel levels will never completely return to pre Covid-19 levels.

On the railways, how close to those pre-Covid-19 levels things return and how soon - we will just have to wait and see. But I can imagine that car transport will take a bigger hit as that is less ecological then rail (and other public transport). So there will be measures taken to soak up the spare public transport capacity. Personally I would not want to use public transport that is so crowded as before.

can only see car use increasing tbh. Car usage almost back to pre COVID levels plus there seems to be huge demand lately for used vehicles.

 

[The Ham]

can only see car use increasing tbh. Car usage almost back to pre COVID levels plus there seems to be huge demand lately for used vehicles.

Although conversely a significant drop in new cars being purchased in September, the two well may be linked (i.e. fewer new cars meaning more pressure for second hand cars and/or people keeping hold of cars for longer, therefore restricting the availability of second hand cars).

Although I would expect that there will be some who are currently avoiding public transport and are driving. However that might be at an extra cost which they might not be able to sustain long term and/or there might be other priorities in normal circumstances (such as traveling abroad, more socialising, activities for the kids, etc.) which aren't happening so can fund the extra for the car.

Either way of we are going to see an uplift in car use due to people avoiding public transport when things return to there being more people going into work (and there's still been significant numbers who haven't been back or only for limited purposes) then the roads could well grind to a halt rather rapidly.

Those days (term time) when traffic appears light compared to those days where it takes forever (as long as it's not due to a motorway being closed or the like) the change in traffic levels is about 2%, therefore even a small increase can significantly impact journey times.

As such, as things return towards normal there's likely to be a shift back towards public transport, if for no other reason than the roads might struggle to cope.

 

[kylemore]

Although conversely a significant drop in new cars being purchased in September, the two well may be linked (i.e. fewer new cars meaning more pressure for second hand cars and/or people keeping hold of cars for longer, therefore restricting the availability of second hand cars).

I think people are hedging their bets. Uncertainty is the ruling factor just now - who knows what tomorrow may bring?

Why commit to a new vehicle purchase when you can just buy a banger to see you through to next year and see how the land lies then.

 

[notlob.divad]

I am going to flip this question on it's head. It isn't a case of whether public transport can recover, it is a case of needing public transport to recover, either by choice, coercion or compulson. Looking at all the evidence there is strong indications that exposure to air pollution increases the vulnerability of the population to these kind of viruses. The difficulty is clearly unmasking the impact of Air Pollution from the general population density, (where population is dense air pollution is high, and both impact Covid-19 mortality rates).

Without a major return to public transport and an increased modal shift on top of that, we will not seriously tackle the worldwide air pollution issue and thus will be condemning people to premature death for years and decades to come.

 

[telstarbox]

Another week of The Graph and usage remains around 33-34% in the most recent data up to Sunday 25 October.

 

[johntea]

Northern guard hadn't 'heard anything' to suggest any timetable changes despite the upcoming lockdown

 

[GodAtum]

Does waring face masks put people off leisure travel? I haven't travelled with my family because there's no way my children would wear one and I'm uncomfortable in it too. We used to ravel by train a lot, now it's better to travel by car.

 

[Huntergreed]

Does waring face masks put people off leisure travel? I haven't travelled with my family because there's no way my children would wear one and I'm uncomfortable in it too. We used to ravel by train a lot, now it's better to travel by car.

I think it does, it makes journeys very uncomfortable! The government, on the other hand, think they have the opposite effect and give people “confidence” so there will be higher numbers travelling (which I think is nonsense)

 

[LittleAH]

How well have HT been doing since the last lockdown ? When I went on GC it was pretty busy.

Not great from what I was told. Despite the thread that was hijacked by the usual Anti-FG/TPE suspect, First have been running it at a major loss with now HMG help and the person I know who works for them said only certain days did it really seem like anyone was travelling - usually around leisure and University which is to be expected.

 

[yorksrob]

Not great from what I was told. Despite the thread that was hijacked by the usual Anti-FG/TPE suspect, First have been running it at a major loss with now HMG help and the person I know who works for them said only certain days did it really seem like anyone was travelling - usually around leisure and University which is to be expected.

I suppose they have to cut their cloth.

 

[bramling]

Northern guard hadn't 'heard anything' to suggest any timetable changes despite the upcoming lockdown

I suspect this has all come at a bit short notice to do timetable changes. The planning staff must be at their wits end, and you can’t just change duties for people like drivers without giving them notice.

The problem will of course come if or when absence starts creeping up again, especially due to shielding.

 

[trainophile]

Does waring face masks put people off leisure travel? I haven't travelled with my family because there's no way my children would wear one and I'm uncomfortable in it too. We used to ravel by train a lot, now it's better to travel by car.

Thinking about it, this is probably why I'm not as upset as I might have been about cancelled trips. Wearing a mask somehow took all the enjoyment out of train travel latterly.