bus usage statistics 2015/16

[nerd]

For the first time in a long time, usage in London has fallen faster than that in the rest of the country. TfL blame this on congestion and road works - but then other cities are congested too.

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploa...ual-bus-statistics-year-ending-march-2016.pdf

South coast does well, even when starting from a high base (Brighton, Bournemouth, Poole); and even when too far from London to have received much in the way of population overflow. Note too that Bristol and Reading are also doing well; as are Oxfordshire and York

My inclination is to associate maintaining (and improving) bus trips per head with the counterpart pattern of increasing commuter train trips per head across most Metropolitan areas. Notoriously, train services along the South Coast are crap.

This might be a version of the Edinburgh phenomenon; that buses can benefit where declining attractiveness of private car commuting leads to an increased acceptability of public transport alternatives. For cities that still maintain commuter rail networks (Liverpool, Manchester) the beneficiary of this is rail or light rail; but for other towns and cities (Reading, Bristol, Oxford), the effect has been to boost the attractiveness of bus travel. In my view.

Buses have long had an image problem; such that frustrated car users have tended to feel strongly inhibited against switching to a bus alternative. My suggestion is that there is now some evidence for this inhibition against buses to be breaking down; but only in those areas where bus is the most eligible public transport mode around.

 

[overthewater]

I bet the real reason bus use has fallen in London is because of the improved rail and underground network.

Isnt Cambridge pro bus?

 

[ChathillMan]

London's rise in bus use was down to a number of factors. The ones which are quoted by politicians are the price of use and density/frequency of the network. One which is overlooked is the massive rise in population there over the years.

It is worrying for TFL that it is falling despite all this.

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[radamfi]

Is the fall in London bus use matched by an increase in Tube/local rail/bike use? What counts is the modal split for non-car modes.

 

[Failed Unit]

The report is correct on the decline for London. They are just too slow. Walking is just as quick. Traffic light phasing to let a few vehicles over at best. Blocking of junctions etc. The bus is the last form of transport I choose in London. (Unless it is chucking it down with rain)

 

[embers25]

I bet the real reason bus use has fallen in London is because of the improved rail and underground network.

Isnt Cambridge pro bus?

Cambridge is pro bus but also the council slashed subsidised service (like many other areas) and significantly less buses running means declines in passengers are more likely.

 

[infobleep]

I'm not surprised London bus usage us going down. I doubt they can do so much about it as what can they possibly do about congestion.


Here's an example. Tonight I get to bus stop shortly before a bus is due. Not the bus I planned to get but one before it, due at the time my bus should depart.

The journey should take 6 minutes off peak. I have a train I'm 11 minutes so if it leaves on time I have 5 minutes to get to the platform. That should be long enough. If you disagree then keep reading.

To walk would take 21 minutes, says Google Maps,. I know it can be 15 if I ran. So were I to allow longer then the bus journey becomes fairly close to my walking time.

Before bus I will get turns up, a different destination pulls in. That goes to a nearby destination but would involve a walk or jog at the end to reach the station.

However the app says my bus is due so I will wait.

My bus eventually turns up 2 minutes later, so much for due. I admit apps can't account for sudden lateness but it it goes back to my comment, what can TfL actually do?

Due to passengers trying to pay contactless using three phone, and one not working, held up another minute. These things happen so what can TfL realistically do?

There was a 4 minute gap between us and a preceeding bus heading to the station. This is now 7 minutes. So when we reach the next stop, loads of students pile on. Amazing what 7 minutes does to numbers waiting to board a bus in London.

Soon we reach a road by a girls school. To make it safer they have introduced bollards making it one way traffic through this section. We are the held up as some cars and two buses go through in the opposite direction. Probably a other 30 seconds. May be more.

We stop at every bus stop of couree. I arrived on the station platform 3 minutes after train should have left. I did see the train as I have headed to the station but couldn't get their in time.

Thus follows a 12 minute wait for next train. I seriously did consider walking today but though no it will be fine as bus due.

Its experiences like this that put people off buses. I don't mind getting a bus to my final destination but getting one to a train station is hit and miss. I will admit it's more hit than miss but if a miss causes 20 minute delay to your journey, you then to remember it more.

Of course to avoid these issues the answer is to leave earlier but if I start doing that then the journey time isn't far off walking so I might as well walk and not catch the bus.

Tonight's I could have walked as I had plenty of time for the following train. I would have done just that if is known the bus would be so delayed.

So I think examples like that explain why passenger numbers are decreasing. I think the bus is only worth doing if your walk is over 40 minutes or its off peak.

Like I side, what can TfL realistically do. Probably not a lot. I know of at least one person who dislikes buses and won't travel on them, preferring to walk instead. Others only travel off peak.

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[Busaholic]

Some very disappointing figures from Devon. Torbay saw a 4% decrease, Plymouth 8% and the rest of Devon 9% (that includes Exeter by the way, as well as North Devon, East Devon, Dartmoor and most of South Devon). Go-Ahead not seeing the returns from Plymouth Citybus that they might have expected, it seems.

 

[Failed Unit]

Info beep. You have summed up why I don't use them anymore. I started walking, often the first bus to pass me was within 5 minutes of my destination on a 20 minute walk. At least I am fitter. Sometimes i wasn't passed. What can TFL do? Nothing unless they reduce the priority given to cyclist / pedestrians. But we want more of them then bus users anyway.

 

[embers25]

Some very disappointing figures from Devon. Torbay saw a 4% decrease, Plymouth 8% and the rest of Devon 9% (that includes Exeter by the way, as well as North Devon, East Devon, Dartmoor and most of South Devon). Go-Ahead not seeing the returns from Plymouth Citybus that they might have expected, it seems.

Also due in part to the Devon CC bus cuts which have decimated rural services.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Also due in part to the Devon CC bus cuts which have decimated rural services.

Indeed, council cuts may well be a factor in the "wider Devon". I'd expect that PCB will be faring much better now with the peace dividend and fewer competitive skermishes following the First sale to Stagecoach.

 

[ChathillMan]

Talking about outside London, I wonder what the usage figures are if you remove the services that were cut from the previous set of figures.

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[plcd1]

I am getting the distinct impression that TfL no longer know what is happening with the bus network. We have nearly 18 months of the same old "roadworks, congestion, redevelopment" message being put forward as the cause of the decline. However a lot of the roadworks in and around the centre have finished so there should be less of an issue. Furthermore the heavy construction phase of Crossrail has also finished which should reduce lorry volumes to some extent. Meanwhile usage continue to fall and we now have a new saviour - the Hopper ticket - as the TfL explanation as to why ridership will recover.

The problem is that lower speed limits in many inner boroughs are slowing the service considerably. Roadworks are still badly co-ordinated. There is nowhere near enough bus priority work going on and not enough funding to make a difference. Although not yet visible to passengers TfL is losing experienced staff causing delays within the organisation itself and has a range of expensive and conflicting political objectives that I doubt have resolved themselves politically never mind within TfL itself - Crossrail, ULEZ expansion, green bus corridors, impact of the Hopper ticket, budget cuts, declining revenue, Oxford St pedestrianisation, declining cost efficiency and demands for network rationalisation / simplification. A lot of those factors pull in opposing directions so how TfL are supposed to sort it out when there is no official "bus policy" from the Mayor (based on his manifesto) I just don't know. It's a mess and I don't expect to see any real reversal of the decline this year. The crucial test will be how the public respond when the more controversial aspects of the bus network changes start to become obvious.

 

[Failed Unit]

I was on route 63 from Elephant & Castle to kings cross recently. One thing I noticed is how the cycle super highway had slowed the service towards Blackfriars. Buses seem to need to be mixed with cars more now because of the cycle ways. I wonder if cyclists we former bus passengers- I certainly think if you can't beat them join them on a boris bike.

 

[Busaholic]

I was on route 63 from Elephant & Castle to kings cross recently. One thing I noticed is how the cycle super highway had slowed the service towards Blackfriars. Buses seem to need to be mixed with cars more now because of the cycle ways. I wonder if cyclists we former bus passengers- I certainly think if you can't beat them join them on a boris bike.

Blackfriars Road has been mentioned quite a lot in dispatches as being a case where road space for motor vehicles has diminished considerably in favour of cycle lanes which are really only being used to any extent for an hour or hour and a half in each peak hour (and, even then, I suspect in only one direction per peak hour). The broadness of the road lent itself to tram use, and could again do so if a Cross-River tram route idea was to be resurrected, but in the hands of the cycle lobby they will of course take full advantage.
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I am getting the distinct impression that TfL no longer know what is happening with the bus network. We have nearly 18 months of the same old "roadworks, congestion, redevelopment" message being put forward as the cause of the decline. However a lot of the roadworks in and around the centre have finished so there should be less of an issue. Furthermore the heavy construction phase of Crossrail has also finished which should reduce lorry volumes to some extent. Meanwhile usage continue to fall and we now have a new saviour - the Hopper ticket - as the TfL explanation as to why ridership will recover.

The problem is that lower speed limits in many inner boroughs are slowing the service considerably. Roadworks are still badly co-ordinated. There is nowhere near enough bus priority work going on and not enough funding to make a difference. Although not yet visible to passengers TfL is losing experienced staff causing delays within the organisation itself and has a range of expensive and conflicting political objectives that I doubt have resolved themselves politically never mind within TfL itself - Crossrail, ULEZ expansion, green bus corridors, impact of the Hopper ticket, budget cuts, declining revenue, Oxford St pedestrianisation, declining cost efficiency and demands for network rationalisation / simplification. A lot of those factors pull in opposing directions so how TfL are supposed to sort it out when there is no official "bus policy" from the Mayor (based on his manifesto) I just don't know. It's a mess and I don't expect to see any real reversal of the decline this year. The crucial test will be how the public respond when the more controversial aspects of the bus network changes start to become obvious.

The chipping away of bus services in central London seems to be gathering pace. It seems where any two routes share a stretch of road for more than two or three miles. one is for the chop, or curtailment, or diversion. It's about to happen on the Vauxhall-Paddington corridor, shortly after that on Finchley Road with the dismemberment of the 13 and it's now proposed to cut the 23 back to Aldwych from Liverpool Street because the 11 covers that stretch as well (never mind at only half the frequency of a few years ago and a quarter of what it still was in those great cutback days of the 1970s and early 1980s). Those hopper tickets are going to be needed for a fair few passengers who've had a through journey in the past, and may have made employment/study choices based on direct connectivity. People are not going to be attracted back to buses if, for instance, you are no longer able to make a direct journey between Piccadilly Circus and Ludgate Circus, a journey which has no sensible Undergrouind alternative.

 

[matt_world2004]

I wonder how much bus usage has actually dropped or is some of it down to free riding on the borismasters.

 

[plcd1]

I wonder how much bus usage has actually dropped or is some of it down to free riding on the borismasters.

TfL do issue annual stats and released about 10 years worth to the London Assembly about 3-4 years ago. I put them all in a big spreadsheet and then added loads of calculations and other data. I can look up any TfL route and see the changes over a 16 year period. There has been a big and sustained drop on busy radial routes running into Zone 1. This applies whether the buses are run with NB4Ls or not. The far greater determinant of trouble is whether routes run on corridors with

a) long term roadworks / highway changes
b) long term cycle usage growth
c) parallel or near to the Overground and improved Victoria Line.

(a) and (b) have affected a lot of routes from North and inner SE London into Zone 1. I'm less familiar with W London so can't really comment.
(c) has affected routes like the 30, 38, 73, 149, 242, 243.

To be honest I have tried to spot if there is an direct, obvious link between NB4L conversion and declining patronage and there's no clear link to me. Different routes perform differently - some have gone up, some down. Route 38 started falling off a cliff around the time the bendies came off and has been in freefall ever since. Hence why TfL have taken about 15 buses off the PVR and are likely to take even more off.

The above is given with the caveats that annual figures with no disaggregation into smaller time periods can hide all sorts of influences and without detailed corroberating data on those influences there is an element of guesswork to my remarks.