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Budget 2018: what projects do you predict will be included?

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Let’s see what is announced
My bets are
East west line, southwest lines bypass, Addenbrookes station and Crossrail 2.
What do you think?
 
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DPWH

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I expect everything to be sacrificed on the holy altar of Brexit.
 

B&I

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A load of old flannel, because austerity's not over and never will be qlwith this lot
 

Bantamzen

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I expect everything to be sacrificed on the holy altar of Brexit.

Brexit won't be directly blamed, but yes I suspect few if any projects save HS2 to survive, and even this will still be tentative north of Birmingham. But there will be a lot of talk of "digital railway" & "alternative fuel", giving the government a few more years to put off, sorry procrastinate about, erm, I mean review any outstanding projects.

(Me? Cyncial?)
 

northwichcat

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We need to remember Philip Hammond is now the Chancellor not George Osborne. Osborne liked the idea of making big headline announcements and making cuts elsewhere to pay for it, Hammond is less in favour of big headlines or making cuts so overall I wouldn't expect any big railways announcement but at the same time there probably won't be any controversial cuts. Also note Philip Hammond has said in the event of a no deal Brexit they'll be an emergency budget in the spring so as the outcome of Brexit is yet unknown I think that's another reason for Hammond not announcing any big new infrastructure schemes.
 

DarloRich

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We need to remember Philip Hammond is now the Chancellor not George Osborne. Osborne liked the idea of making big headline announcements and making cuts elsewhere to pay for it

ALL chancellors like big headline announcements that get them juicy column inches!
 

northwichcat

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ALL chancellors like big headline announcements that get them juicy column inches!

If you haven't noticed Osborne liked to make lots of big announcements - even when he was doing his autumn statement he did a mini-budget which allowed him to make a couple of headline announcements. Last spring Philip Hammond did a spring statement (now that the budget has been moved to the autumn) and literally just gave the statement about how well the economy is or isn't doing. His previous budgets have had headlines like - a bit of extra money for schools, some additional funds for potholes etc.
 

DarloRich

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His previous budgets have had headlines like - a bit of extra money for schools, some additional funds for potholes etc.

the substance doesn't really matter, just the headline. Few will look beyond that headline so £123m extra for pot holes sounds both large and good.
 

twpsaesneg

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The news over the weekend of a £28bn increase in road funding, using vehicle excise duty revenue, worries me.

Unless a magic money tree has been found I can see that being the death knell of many proposed rail projects.

I hope I'm wrong as otherwise I'll need to retrain in highways design PDQ!

https://www.itv.com/news/2018-10-27/hammond-to-unveil-28bn-budget-boost-for-englands-roads-network/

Chancellor Philip Hammond to unveil £28bn Budget boost for England’s roads network
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Philip Hammond is to announce a Budget cash injection for England’s roads Credit: Kirsty O’Connor/PA


Philip Hammond will announce what is being billed as the biggest ever cash injection for England’s largest roads when he delivers his annual Budget statement on Monday.

The Chancellor is expected to tell MPs that he is setting up a £28.8 billion fund to upgrade and maintain the country’s motorways and other major routes.

The programme – to run over five years from 2020 to 2025 – will be in part funded by revenues from vehicle excise duty, the first time road tax has been ring-fenced for use on the roads network.

It outstrips the £17.6 billion invested over the previous five-year period and represents a 40% increase in the budget of Highways England.

At the same time Mr Hammond will allocate a further £420 million to councils to fix potholes and carry out other repairs after a harsh winter followed by a scorching summer took its toll on the local road system.

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The Chancellor is expected to tell MPs that he is setting up a £28.8bn fund to upgrade and maintain the country’s motorways and other major routes. Credit: PA
A further £150 million will be used to help councils improve local road junctions, allowing better access to workplaces, high streets and other community facilities.

The additional spending comes on top of the annual £1 billion highways maintenance budget and the recent £300 million pothole repairs fund.

Ministers argue that the investment will ease congestion and reduce journey times, helping to raise productivity while improving road safety.

In other moves, the Transforming Cities Fund will be extended by £680 million to support local “sustainable” including new buses, trams and cycling routes.

The Chancellor is also setting aside another £90 million to trial next-generation methods of transport, with the creation of new “future mobility zones” in three city regions.

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Motoring organisations welcomed Mr Hammond's announcement. Credit: PA
The new systems to be tested could potentially include self-driving shuttle services, electric bikes and extending digital payments to cover more methods of travel across more cities.

The commitment by the Chancellor to invest in the road network was strongly condemned by environmental campaigners.

Liz Hutchins of Friends of the Earth said: “Earlier this month UN scientists warned that we only have a dozen years to prevent catastrophic climate change.

“Yet rather than investing in a low-carbon economy, the Chancellor is gearing up to create more pollution that wrecks our climate and damages our health by investing billions of pounds in roads.”

Labour shadow transport secretary Andy McDonald added: “With car dependency rising, public transport in decline and local roads in a state of disrepair, ramping up spending on major roads is the wrong decision.

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Labour shadow transport secretary Andy McDonald believes 'ramping up spending on major roads is the wrong decision'. Credit: PA
“It simply isn’t sustainable to repeatedly ramp-up major road spending, especially at a time when air pollution causes 40,000 premature deaths each year and climate change is threatening a global crisis.”

Motoring organisations, however, welcomed the announcement.

RAC chief engineer David Bizley said it was “good news” for the nation’s motorists.

“While the focus of this cash injection is strategic and major roads it is also positive that other local roads will benefit to some extent,” he said.

“But what is also needed going forward is similar long-term strategy and funding for the maintenance and improvement of all local roads so that we can over perhaps 10 years eliminate the backlog in preventative maintenance that has led to so many potholes appearing during periods of adverse weather.”
 

deltic

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A load of stuff that has been announced many times before plus that new saviour of cancelled electrification schemes - hydrogen trains
 

ainsworth74

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Nothing as far as I can tell in the budget. Which is what I was expecting to be quite honest. Rail had its chance to be the political darling and completely and totally wasted it's opportunity. Which isn't to say we won't continue to see investment but the days of rail spending being part of the budget I think are well and truly behind us again.
 

Chonner

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A quick Ctrl-F for Rail on the Red Book gives:
  • £37m more for Northern Powerhouse Rail - "Northern Powerhouse Rail will transform the economic geography of the North, connecting cities with faster, more frequent services to boost growth and improve the experiences of passengers across the region. The Budget announces up to a further £37 million to support the development of Northern Powerhouse Rail, building on £300 million already committed to ensure HS2 infrastructure can accommodate future potential Northern Powerhouse Rail and Midlands Engine Rail services. The first business case of the scheme is due at the end of the year. (50)"
  • £20m more for East-West Railway Central Section - "A new East West Rail company has been established to accelerate the delivery of the central railway section between Cambridge and Bedford. The government is providing a further £20 million to develop a strategic outline business case for the railway. This will explore which routes best support the government’s vision to unlock up to 1 million new homes by 2050. (51)"
  • Dawlish resilience – "Following the £15 million of funding committed in November 2016, essential work will begin this November to strengthen the cliffs and protect the seawall at Dawlish. Plans for major improvements for the seawall at Dawlish will be published next summer. "
  • Crossrail 2 - "The government is considering the recommendations of the Independent Affordability Review of Crossrail 2, and will consider the case for the project at the Spending Review."
  • Digital railway enhancements - £30m (17-18), £55m (18-19), £165m (19-20), £285m (20-21)
  • DLR - "The government will invest £291 million from the Housing Infrastructure Fund to unlock over 18,000 new homes in East London through investment in the Docklands Light Railway."
 

Bletchleyite

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Nothing as far as I can tell in the budget. Which is what I was expecting to be quite honest. Rail had its chance to be the political darling and completely and totally wasted it's opportunity. Which isn't to say we won't continue to see investment but the days of rail spending being part of the budget I think are well and truly behind us again.

Nothing was my expectation too. To be honest, franchising sits a bit outside the scope of the Budget, so absent any big infrastructure stuff I don't expect much there.
 

eastdyke

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Chancellor has said he will end the era of private finance initiatives by government.
Can this be extrapolated to mean that private investment in future Rail projects will now be (even more) unlikely?
 

northwichcat

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Chancellor has said he will end the era of private finance initiatives by government.
Can this be extrapolated to mean that private investment in future Rail projects will now be (even more) unlikely?

Just done a scan of the full budget report for mentions of rail and posted the findings here: https://www.railforums.co.uk/posts/3701559/ In short it's mainly a little extra funding for already mentioned schemes and some things to be looked at with no guarantee they'll happen.
 

Allwinter_Kit

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Wow. The news on the Transpennine Route Upgrade/Electrification must be truly horrendous if the Chancellor didn't want to try and claim it.

So, singling of the North TP route, anyone? :P
 

LNW-GW Joint

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Chancellor has said he will end the era of private finance initiatives by government.
Can this be extrapolated to mean that private investment in future Rail projects will now be (even more) unlikely?

Not really.
Philip Hammond said he had never signed a PFI deal, and never would (blaming Labour for previous ones).
But that does not sit well with his/George Osborne's signing of the IEP contract, which is a pay-for-use contract very like PFI.

He said there will still be public-private partnerships, but the contracts will not be so one-sided as PFIs (I don't know how he will achieve this!).
Major capital projects will certainly have private investment.
Network Rail has just advertised for private sector partners for its investment programme (especially digital railway)
 

Mikey C

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I don't see why a government would waste the PR benefits of a rail announcement (new trains, better services etc) in a budget speech anyway

Money on repairing potholes is fair enough as
a) It is needed
b) The individual repairs themselves aren't newsworthy!
 

edwin_m

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Not really.
Philip Hammond said he had never signed a PFI deal, and never would (blaming Labour for previous ones).
But that does not sit well with his/George Osborne's signing of the IEP contract, which is a pay-for-use contract very like PFI.

He said there will still be public-private partnerships, but the contracts will not be so one-sided as PFIs (I don't know how he will achieve this!).
Major capital projects will certainly have private investment.
Network Rail has just advertised for private sector partners for its investment programme (especially digital railway)
The F in PFI (that's open to interpretation...) stands for Finance. Their distinguishing feature is that the private sector is expected to raise the money up front and is paid by results when the project is operational. Other forms of private sector involvement, not involving financing, would presumably still happen (I'm making the big assumption here that PFI doesn't just continue under another name).

So if this element is removed two things happen: the government borrows the money and probably pays less interest, reducing the overall costs, but it becomes part of public borrowing. This probably means schemes will get more scrutiny as there is no longer the temptation to get the benefits now and push the costs into the future.

The risk remains that the private sector may try to charge unreasonably high amounts for providing the service and particularly for adapting if circumstances change, or the government is tied to a private body to keep the asset working without much recourse if they perform badly or go bust. As ever the government needs to be an "informed buyer" to spot things of this nature before signing the contract.
 
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