Budget 2015

[jimm]

Rail-related announcements in the Budget Red Book:

Full document: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploa...e/413949/47881_Budget_2015_Web_Accessible.pdf

• Selby to Hull electrification – The government will, subject to an acceptable contribution from Hull Trains and subject to a business case, complete Selby to Hull electrification by the end of Network Rail’s Control Period 6 (2019 to 2024).
  
• High Speed Rail Investment Summit – The government will fund a High Speed Rail Investment Summit in Birmingham, which will be delivered jointly by UK Trade and Investment and Marketing Birmingham and which will focus overseas investment to the UK on regeneration and supply chain opportunities created around High Speed 2.
  
• Great Western direct award – The government will, subject to negotiations, shortly agree a Direct Award with First Great Western until 2019 which will introduce the new Intercity Express Trains and improve rail services across the South West.
  
• Croxley rail link – The government will provide a further £34 million to support the delivery of the Croxley rail link project, subject to a £16 million contribution from Transport for London and final approval of the scheme.
• South East
  
• Lewes to Uckfield rail line study – The government will provide £100,000 for a further study into reopening the Lewes to Uckfield rail line.
  
• Barking Riverside – The government continues to work with the Greater London Authority, London Borough of Barking and Dagenham and developers to unlock Barking Riverside, to support the construction of up to 11,000 homes. Transport for London will shortly launch the next public consultation on the proposed route of the railway extension.
  
• And a late entry tucked on another page: Transport: The government has asked the South West Peninsula Task Force
  on rail to consider improvements to the Exeter to Salisbury line as part of its work.

I'm guessing the new rail franchise for the South West that George Osborne mentioned in his speech in the Commons

We’re also connecting up the South West, with over £7 billion of transport investment, better roads, support for air links, and – I can confirm today – a new rail franchise which will bring new intercity express trains and greatly improved rail services.

is the FGW direct award, not his Devon and Cornwall franchise idea, but I suppose we will have to wait for DfT's Budget follow-up announcement for clarity on this and also whether the new trains he talked about now includes complete replacement of FGW's HSTs with IEPs.

 

[northwichcat]

Page 43

To build the Northern Powerhouse, the government is already:
• committing £13 billion of investment to transport in the north of England: connecting cities,
electrifying the main rail routes, building the northern rail hub, and providing new trains
through the new northern rail franchise
• supporting a further £2.7 billion of investment for new trains on the east coast, and
investing in major road upgrades including the A1, M62, M1, A556 and Mersey Gateway
Bridge, in addition to the £50 billion commitment to develop High Speed 2 (HS2)
• devolving power to Sheffield, including over transport, skills and business support

 

[jimm]

Page 43

Nothing like announcing things over and over again...

 

[bnm]

Nothing like rewarding First Group for walking away from FGW a few years back. 2019 means that'll be 6 years extra they've got after handing the keys back.

 

[WatcherZero]

Also said the Northern Transport Strategy (HS3) will be published tomorrow. Budget doesn't mention publication of TPE direct award but it needs to be done this week because the franchise ends April.

 

[ainsworth74]

Nothing like rewarding First Group for walking away from FGW a few years back. 2019 means that'll be 6 years extra they've got after handing the keys back.

By 'handing the keys back' do you mean using an agreed break point in the contract which the DfT had agreed to when the contract was first signed?

 

[Donny Dave]

Nothing like rewarding First Group for walking away from FGW a few years back. 2019 means that'll be 6 years extra they've got after handing the keys back.

Erm, it was a contracted break point in the franchise with an option for FGW to extend it for a further 3 years if they wanted, they chose not to exercise this option.

 

[bnm]

By 'handing the keys back' do you mean using an agreed break point in the contract which the DfT had agreed to when the contract was first signed?

Yes. I know there was a break clause thank you very much. :roll:

What annoys me is FGW continuing to take their piece of the pie, renegotiating favourable subsidy, piggy backing Network Rail investment by giving the impression they are investing in a 'Greater West' and all the while giving diddly squat back. 4 more years of value extraction when there should be the chance for new blood to make a difference.

And don't give me anything about stability being needed because new rolling stock is on the way.

 

[Dolge]

First only won the franchise by making ludicrously optimistic traffic and income projections for its final years. Pulling our with three years to go may have been allowed by the contract but it was still sharp practice which disadvantaged other who made more realistic bids. Just one aspect of a noticeably cosy relationship between First and the DfT.

 

[ainsworth74]

Yes. I know there was a break clause thank you very much.

Good. So they didn't 'give the keys back' then if they were using an agreed point to end their contract?

What ****es me off is FGW continuing to take their piece of the pie, renegotiating favourable subsidy, piggy backing Network Rail investment by giving the impression they are investing in a 'Greater West' and all the while giving diddly squat back. 4 more years of value extraction when there should be the chance for new blood to make a difference.

Perhaps the government should have grown a spine and told them what was what? I don't see how you can blame FGW for trying to get the best deal possible when they are only allowed to do so by government.

You'll forgive me but I don't see how 'FGW are evil' applies here.

 

[jimm]

Nothing like rewarding First Group for walking away from FGW a few years back. 2019 means that'll be 6 years extra they've got after handing the keys back.

Not First Group's fault that DafT made a pig's ear of the GW franchise back in 2006 by inserting a one-way break clause to First's advantage and then a pig's ear of the West Coast franchise bidding in 2012, thus screwing up the GW franchise renewal due in 2013.

Which inevitably meant - even though DafT took a while to work it out - that parachuting in a new GW operator on top of all the other things going on in the area for the next few years with electrification, route modernisation and rolling stock renewal was not a bright idea.

And if someone else had taken over a couple of years ago, you probably wouldn't have been able to enjoy all those Pullman restaurant meals you enthuse about on another forum. If First are so terrible, why do you continue to patronise them?

 

[ainsworth74]

Pulling our with three years to go may have been allowed by the contract but it was still sharp practice which disadvantaged other who made more realistic bids.

Do we know for sure that no-one else was back loading premium payments? It seemed to be fairly common practice for franchises let around the mid-00s.

Just one aspect of a noticeably cosy relationship between First and the DfT.

Can't be that cosy as they might only have Hull Trains left in the next couple of years!

 

[Rhydgaled]

I suppose we will have to wait for DfT's Budget follow-up announcement for clarity on this and also whether the new trains he talked about now includes complete replacement of FGW's HSTs with IEPs.

Assuming the franchise has at least the same service level commitments, they will struggle to completely replace the IC125s with IEPs. Wouldn't put it past them to quietly drop commitments for 'operational convience' but compensating for the loss of 8-carriage crowd buster IC125 services will be very difficult. I also think they ought to electrify much more of the PAD-Penzance route then currently planned (not necessarily all of it) before putting IEPs on it becomes a good idea.

 

[jimm]

Assuming the franchise has at least the same service level commitments, they will struggle to completely replace the IC125s with IEPs. Wouldn't put it past them to quietly drop commitments for 'operational convience' but compensating for the loss of 8-carriage crowd buster IC125 services will be very difficult. I also think they ought to electrify much more of the PAD-Penzance route then currently planned (not necessarily all of it) before putting IEPs on it becomes a good idea.

How about waiting for the announcement...

 

[fgwrich]

Not First Group's fault that DafT made a pig's ear of the GW franchise back in 2006 by inserting a one-way break clause to First's advantage and then a pig's ear of the West Coast franchise bidding in 2012, thus screwing up the GW franchise renewal due in 2013.

Which inevitably meant - even though DafT took a while to work it out - that parachuting in a new GW operator on top of all the other things going on in the area for the next few years with electrification, route modernisation and rolling stock renewal was not a bright idea.

And if someone else had taken over a couple of years ago, you probably wouldn't have been able to enjoy all those Pullman restaurant meals you enthuse about on another forum. If First are so terrible, why do you continue to patronise them?

I completely agree, this was a break clause initiated by the DfT who as usual saw themselves to be so over confident in believing that they knew what was best and could predict the future, the same DfT who effectively robbed the Greater Western franchise of a considerable chunk of rolling stock and left FGW to pick up the pieces. I see little wrong in awarding the direct award to FGW at all, in fact I'm pleased - even more so given the past and present histories of other potential TOCs. Do you think GW would have faired better under Stagecoach? or National Express? because I don't. And we can sure as hell guarantee the Express Café, Travelling Chef or Pullman Dining menus would never have existed. First know the route, have the knowledge and have and are doing well to continue to improve it. And just as you say Jimm, parachuting in a new GW operator on top of the GW Modernisation would not have benefitted all - Just look at the mess Govia are making of Thameslink to see an example of that!

Do we know for sure that no-one else was back loading premium payments? It seemed to be fairly common practice for franchises let around the mid-00s.



Can't be that cosy as they might only have Hull Trains left in the next couple of years!

I can't say First's relationship with the DfT is that cosy either, given (much to some peoples disappointment) the loss of FCC to Govia, The West Coast debacle, First missing out on East Coast, and the dragging of heels over the FHT Selby - Hull electrification & FHT Extention - which I see is now to only be part funded by First thanks to the budget announcement.

The rest, will be yet to come. Do we know when the full announcement for the FGW Direct Award will be announced with the full details?

 

[swcovas]

[*]Lewes to Uckfield rail line study – The government will provide £100,000 for a further study into reopening the Lewes to Uckfield rail line.

How many more studies are going to be made into reopening Lewes to Uckfield??? Suppose it must provide jobs for someone!

 

[jimm]

Do we know when the full announcement for the FGW Direct Award will be announced with the full details?

Since it was mentioned in the House of Commons in the Budget speech, I would expect it any day now, maybe even tomorrow, especially as the Common packs up for the election on March 30, so all this sort of stuff has to be got out of the way before that. As watcherzero says above, they have to get the TPE direct award done and dusted as well.

How many more studies are going to be made into reopening Lewes to Uckfield??? Suppose it must provide jobs for someone!

There's an election coming, the Lib Dems are defending Lewes, the Tories want to win it... so now they can squabble over which one was responsible for this generosity.

Top story on Norman Baker's website, posted yesterday...

MP calls for new Lewes–Uckfield study
Posted on March 17, 2015 by normanlewes
The Chancellor should use the opportunity the Budget presents to take forward the case to reopen the Lewes-Uckfield railway line. That’s the view of Lewes Lib Dem MP Norman Baker, who has lobbied the Treasury accordingly.

Norman says: “It has become clearer than ever in recent weeks that there is a need for an alternative line from the Sussex Coast to London. A reopened Lewes-Uckfield line would provide exactly that, enabling through trains to run from Seaford and Newhaven via Uckfield, and also freeing up space on the Brighton main line for more Brighton trains. It would also strengthen the resilience of the railway which at the moment is very vulnerable to problems with either the Balcombe Tunnel or Balcombe Viaduct.

“I have been lobbying for this reopening for over 25 years and the case gets stronger with every passing year. The coalition government, thanks to the Lib Dems, has a good record on rail expansion. Taking Lewes-Uckfield forward would be the icing on the cake. I hope the Chancellor will heed my call in tomorrow’s Budget.”

 

[hwl]

Top story on Norman Baker's website, posted yesterday...

Well Lewis- Uckfield isn't going to do anything about all the issues from Purley North! Plenty of Grandstanding again...

 

[Chris125]

The BBC's Richard Westcott has had confirmation from the DfT and Treasury that the chancellor was simply referring to the Direct Award:

"OK I've talked to DfT again. This is def just the direct award going to FGW until 2019. Not a new franchise. Not being broken up, or new franchise in Dev/Corn etc. And simply confirming IEP trains on that route as we knew"

Seems we'll have to wait for the Direct Award itself for any announcement of further IEP sets.

 

[STEVIEBOY1]

I am a bit confused about what is meant by a New inter-city rail franchise for south west of England, that has been mentioned and by the comments above.

Does this mean as well as FGW & SWT there will be another TOC allowed to operate in this area, or will one or both the above mentioned TOCs be merged into one larger firm, or something else?

 

[Rhydgaled]

I am a bit confused about what is meant by a New inter-city rail franchise for south west of England, that has been mentioned and by the comments above.

Does this mean as well as FGW & SWT there will be another TOC allowed to operate in this area, or will one or both the above mentioned TOCs be merged into one larger firm, or something else?

Supposedly, somebody somewhere has suggested splitting the 'Greater Western' franchise back into seperate 'Intercity' and 'local' franchises again, only this time taking the Waterloo-Exeter and Paddington-Penzance services out of SWT and 'GW-intercity' respectively and putting them with the 'GW-local' TOC. That's how I read it anyway.

But it doesn't sound like that is confirmed yet, just a direct award for Greater Western (which presumably will be as-is, roughly at least).

 

[westv]

So potentially Selby to Hull won't be electrified for another 9 years. Likely to be pushed back even further??

 

[bnm]

You'll forgive me but I don't see how 'FGW are evil' applies here.

And you'll forgive me for pointing out that no one has mentioned FGW being evil. Even in half quotes.

first Group have gamed the system. My beef is that they should never have been in a position to do so. If we couldn't have a full term franchise because of the infrastructure work on the 'Western', then there should have been a short franchise in a similar vein to Greater Anglia. Direct awards make a mockery of rail franchising.

And yes I hold our craven government equally culpable.

 

[route:oxford]

I am a bit confused about what is meant by a New inter-city rail franchise for south west of England, that has been mentioned and by the comments above.

Does this mean as well as FGW & SWT there will be another TOC allowed to operate in this area, or will one or both the above mentioned TOCs be merged into one larger firm, or something else?

The London Mayor's trains will be running as far as Reading won't they?

Might as well transfer all local services that operate into Paddington across.

 

[jimm]

And you'll forgive me for pointing out that no one has mentioned FGW being evil. Even in half quotes.

first Group have gamed the system. My beef is that they should never have been in a position to do so. If we couldn't have a full term franchise because of the infrastructure work on the 'Western', then there should have been a short franchise in a similar vein to Greater Anglia. Direct awards make a mockery of rail franchising.

And yes I hold our craven government equally culpable.

After all that has gone on over the past 20 years, almost entirely the fault of the various Govermnents over that period, it's pretty hard to make a mockery of rail franchising - because the whole system is a farce anyway.

As for First Group gaming the system, I'd like to know who it was that persuaded DfT to give it that break clause in the 2006 deal - which was the reverse of a clause in the Greater Anglia agreement with National Express made in 2004, by which means the Government then relieved NatExpress of that franchise for failing to perform - and because it was angry with them over the East Coast shambles as well.

But even the break clause is small beer compared with the strategic gaming that must have been going on in Aberdeen to produce the West Coast fiasco by 'winning' then losing that franchise, thus bringing about the collapse of GW refranchising for 2013, leading to the initial two-year direct award, handily bringing the process into a zone of uncertainty with the major GW modernisation schemes looming on the horizon, thus producing the DfT's loss of nerve last year and the subsequent move to talks on a longer-term direct award.

FGW may not be evil but it must have taken an evil genius to come up with a plot on that scale and see it pan out so perfectly... or maybe it was all just circumstance.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Report on ITV News for the West Country suggests the GW franchise announcement will be coming on Monday and suggests there will indeed by IEPs to Penzance, though doesn't provide further supporting evidence.

http://www.itv.com/news/westcountry...an-to-win-over-voters-here-in-the-south-west/

 

[Sir Felix Pole]

Cornwall Council are counting their chickens re IEPs - again without any supporting evidence.

http://www.cornishman.co.uk/Cornwall-Council-welcomes-government-plans-fund/story-26196805-detail/story.html

All the Cornish constituencies are Con/Lib Dem marginals bar Camborne & Redruth which is a 3 (possibly 4) way marginal (Con/Lib Dem/Lab/UKIP) so it will be interesting to see how the announcement will be 'finessed'.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

You can never tell with DfT, but it is supposed to be letting the TOCs decide their future train fleets.
The first two IEP orders were extremely difficult to fund (ie bank lending).
Unless scope for a run-on order was negotiated last time, it will take a long time to settle the details.
I should think the FGW direct award will also expire before they could be delivered (after the VTEC order is complete).
I could understand a DfT commitment to replace the HSTs though.

 

[Busaholic]

Cornwall Council are counting their chickens re IEPs - again without any supporting evidence.

http://www.cornishman.co.uk/Cornwall-Council-welcomes-government-plans-fund/story-26196805-detail/story.html

All the Cornish constituencies are Con/Lib Dem marginals bar Camborne & Redruth which is a 3 (possibly 4) way marginal (Con/Lib Dem/Lab/UKIP) so it will be interesting to see how the announcement will be 'finessed'.

St Ives (a ridiculous name for a constituency whose major town is Penzance) is also on the Green's target list and the candidate is somebody who works in the transport field. I think he has a realistic chance of second place. This area actually has more Labour councillors than Redruth/Camborne so don't expect a Labour resurgence there. Fisheries Minister and arch-crony of Cameron George 'useless' Eustice may get a run for his money with UKIP though. Julia Goldsworthy (Lib Dem) still remembered for her luxury furniture expenses claim when MP in a very poor area.

 

[swt_passenger]

I am a bit confused about what is meant by a New inter-city rail franchise for south west of England, that has been mentioned and by the comments above.

Does this mean as well as FGW & SWT there will be another TOC allowed to operate in this area, or will one or both the above mentioned TOCs be merged into one larger firm, or something else?

It's been clarified subsequently that all the budget statement meant was that the direct award to FGW was about to be signed off.

The possibility of a Devon and Cornwall local franchise is subject of a future decision based on recommendations of a recently established Devon and Cornwall rail 'task force'. New name for talking shop presumably...

 

[Clarence Yard]

Monday's announcement will see what FGW has managed to persuade the DfT to buy in terms of new and retained stock in the franchise.

The word on the tracks is that the ROSCOs have been offering the entire fleet of FGW HST sets (minus the Scotrail ones) to other players in franchise competitions and the end of 2018 is being mentioned as a date by which they have all been released by FGW so FG may well have been working up a new trains option for some time.

If they have gone for a conventional lease rather than the complicated MARA and TARA arrangement that the DFT went for, then the funding would be a lot easier.

Quite a proportion of the FGW sprinter fleet seems to be on offer too and the smart money is on the 143 fleet eventually ending up in Wales. It seems FG are looking to rationalise the number of DMU classes they use on GW.