Boris to resign? (Speculation) And who should replace him?

[GRALISTAIR]

Sunak gives off the appearance of competence because he's currently making it rain dollar bills like he's in a low-rent strip club.

You do come up with some good ones.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Sep 2020 ==

I do hope that if Boris resigns and is replaced that his successor doesn’t cancel HS2

 

[Chester1]

Get Brexit done and then resign on ill health grounds is what I have stated before and I will stick to it. In fact I would even bet a tenner on it.

I think people forget that if he gets a trade deal with the EU, Australia, New Zealand and improves on the EU trade deals with Japan (almost done) and Canada then he will have done a large chunk of what he promised to. Whether that is a good thing or not is a different matter... He doesn't need to stay PM for much longer to deliver one of the biggest changes done by a UK Prime Minister. I struggle to see what he has to gain from standing in the next general election and he has much to lose if he does. One option could be to resign as Tory leader in January 2024 but stay on as PM until day after a May 2024 general election. It would be new to the UK but it has happened in several countries with a parliamentary system and is happening in Germany now (Merkel is no longer CDU leader and will retire at end of their current parliament (September 2021).

 

[nlogax]

I don't think he's going to resign. He enjoys this 'being PM' thing far too much for that.

 

[Domh245]

He enjoys this 'being PM' thing far too much for that.

I'm not sure he does. I've not seen a picture of a happy Boris for a while, and for somebody so ego-driven and determined to be liked, the near constant negative coverage won't be enjoyable

 

[Meerkat]

I'm not sure he does. I've not seen a picture of a happy Boris for a while, and for somebody so ego-driven and determined to be liked, the near constant negative coverage won't be enjoyable

That could be the old man with new baby factor!

 

[317 forever]

Of course Rishi Sunak is popular right now - he's paying people to sit on the sofa and giving them half price meals out. All payed for from the magic money tree also known as Quantitative Easing.

Wait until Autumn, when the taps are turned off and reality starts to bite. The Chancellor who has presided over the deepest recession in our history may lose some of his popularity.

If things go really badly over the next 12 months then the Conservatives may turn to the safe pair of hands they rejected last year - Jeremy Hunt.

The LibDems have just done something similar. They rejected Ed Davey over Jo Swinson last year, but after she lost her seat they have elected him this time.

He's not charismatic, he's a narcissist. And, as you say, narcissism isn't the same thing as competence. Any of us who lived in London during Johnson's reign could have told everyone this.

It's joyous to watch Starmer forensically dismantle him each and every week. It's almost as though Starmer is the poster boy for old-fashioned small-c conservatism: from a working class background, if you get off your arse and try hard you can reach the top. And Johnson is just the poster boy for Bullingdonian Old-Etonian foppery.

I only wish Starmer had stood for leader sooner, and saved us from Corbyn and the Momentum crazies.

Johnson's doing a damn sight better than Cameron, the last incompetent Bullingdonian Old-Etonian narcissistic fop we had as PM though.

Starmer couldn't easily have stood for leader sooner. The last time a leader stood down was Ed Miliband in 2015, when Keir Starmer had only just become an MP. It would not have been his style to challenge an existing leader for their job, like Owen Smith (and originally Angela Eagle) did in 2016.

What is in retrospect unfortunate was Labour gaining those 30 seats in 2017. This level of gains lulled Labour into a false sense of security, encouraged complacency towards Corbyn, and as an aside did not even avert a hard Brexit either.

I think people forget that if he gets a trade deal with the EU, Australia, New Zealand and improves on the EU trade deals with Japan (almost done) and Canada then he will have done a large chunk of what he promised to. Whether that is a good thing or not is a different matter... He doesn't need to stay PM for much longer to deliver one of the biggest changes done by a UK Prime Minister. I struggle to see what he has to gain from standing in the next general election and he has much to lose if he does. One option could be to resign as Tory leader in January 2024 but stay on as PM until day after a May 2024 general election. It would be new to the UK but it has happened in several countries with a parliamentary system and is happening in Germany now (Merkel is no longer CDU leader and will retire at end of their current parliament (September 2021).

I doubt it would be feasible for him to pre-resign to take effect on a date so soon after a General Election. Voters want to know who the Prime Minister would be at least for a good while after the GE even if not the full term.

 

[nlogax]

That could be the old man with new baby factor!

Yep. It's possible to look miserable / knackered and love the position of power at the same time. My guess is resigning would be more than his ego would allow, especially in the light of what I have to assume will be the final failure of Brexit deal negotiations.

 

[Chester1]

I doubt it would be feasible for him to pre-resign to take effect on a date so soon after a General Election. Voters want to know who the Prime Minister would be at least for a good while after the GE even if not the full term.

He wouldn't resign because a new PM would be appointed immediately after the general election. He would no longer be an MP after the general election nor would he have been the leader of a party during the general election. Its been done in other countries with a parliamentary system. The caretaker PM (Boris) makes day to day to government decisions during the election period while the new party leader (e.g. Sunak) leads the campaign (probably from outside the cabinet). Such process means that the party could change its leader without making them a PM for a potentially very short period of time.

 

[Tetchytyke]

if he gets a trade deal

The word "if" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here.

I doubt it would be feasible for him to pre-resign to take effect on a date so soon after a General Election. Voters want to know who the Prime Minister would be at least for a good while after the GE even if not the full term.

It's possible, but you become yesterday's man the second you announce retirement. Everybody stops talking about you and starts talking about the new guy/gal, or the race to choose thenew guy/gal.

Boris's ego wouldn't let that happen during a GE campaign, just as Blair's ego didn't.

 

[brad465]

For the first time in over a year, including since the last election, a polling company (Opinium) has given Labour a poll lead [of 3%]:

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1309930873068945408

While an election is a long way off and this is only one poll, this is part of a continuing downward trend for the Tories that saw 3 different polling companies recently tie them with Labour before this one. When they first tied some backbenchers were voicing concerns about the Government's performance; if this trend continues the pressure on Johnson will likely grow.

 

[Bevan Price]

There has no need to be a general election until 2024. A lot can happen before then. A lot depends on how bad the economy becomes after the combined effects of Brexit & Covid, and whether or not it is starting to recover. If things get really bad by 2023, the tories will start of panic about the possibility of losing the next election, and some will start scheming about how to replace Boris.

And then the fun may start, because the tories are already showing signs of splitting into factions. We already have two clear parts --
(1) - The "slightly more caring" side, who want to mimimise Covid numbers / casualaties, and
(2) The "sod the public" side, who seem not to care about Covid casualty numbers, and think that "business profits" are the ONLY thing that matters.

 

[thejuggler]

Looks like Boris will have to resign so he can go back to earning more than £150k a year. At the moment he can't afford a nanny, or someone to cook his meals.

The shame of if.

 

[brad465]

Looks like Boris will have to resign so he can go back to earning more than £150k a year. At the moment he can't afford a nanny, or someone to cook his meals.

The shame of if.

It's well known he only wanted to be Prime Minister, rather than actually do the job, while it's likely the main reason he wanted to be PM was to join the lucrative gravy train that other former PMs have enjoyed, which fits into the narrative of him being unable to afford a nanny.

 

[bramling]

With there being some amount of chatter about Boris’s time as prime minister now being less than it might otherwise have been, who do we think is the best (or, sadly, perhaps more aptly least worst) to replace him were he to resign or be forced out within the next year?

The more likely candidates might include Gove, Sunak and Hunt? Any others?

For what it’s worth I’d probably find it difficult to choose between Gove or Hunt.

Note I am confining my thoughts to Conservative politicians on the basis that a general election is 4 years away, so a change of ruling party is unlikely.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

I would agree with Gove or Sunak.

Dominic Raab is too far right to be PM I reckon, and Matt Hancock is already a kid swimming in the deep pool without armbands so I'd hate to think what he'd be like as PM.

 

[bramling]

I would agree with Gove or Sunak.

Dominic Raab is too far right to be PM I reckon, and Matt Hancock is already a kid swimming in the deep pool without armbands so I'd hate to think what he'd be like as PM.

Hancock is finished, though whether he has the self-awareness to realise that I’m not sure.

 

[duncanp]

Sajid Javed, who has kept quiet since resigning, but is no doubt biding his time and sharpening his knife, ready to stick it into Boris's back, when the time comes.

 

[bramling]

Sajid Javed, who has kept quiet since resigning, but is no doubt biding his time and sharpening his knife, ready to stick it into Boris's back, when the time comes.

Good shout, I’d forgotten about him. Not sure he’d get chosen though.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Sajid Javed, who has kept quiet since resigning, but is no doubt biding his time and sharpening his knife, ready to stick it into Boris's back, when the time comes.

Agreed. Sajid or Rishi Sunak

 

[Journeyman]

Anyone will do, to be honest. The man is an incompetent fool leading us to ruin. Can't believe he ever got the job in the first place.

I suspect he'll "get Brexit done" and flee, leaving us deep in the merde in the process.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Anyone will do, to be honest. The man is an incompetent fool leading us to ruin. Can't believe he ever got the job in the first place.

I suspect he'll "get Brexit done" and flee, leaving us deep in the merde in the process.

I agree that is the most likely scenario

 

[DustyBin]

Javed is an interesting possibility and is not part of the current circus (though not by choice ironically). Hunt likewise but I can’t see either being chosen.

Sunak is currently a relatively popular figure but that could change....

There’s something rather unsavoury about Gove, I used to like him but his vying for power with Johnson (twice) was a dirty business and left a bad taste (the same applies to Johnson himself).

I actually don’t mind Raab.

One thing is certain, there is a distinct lack of talent across the political spectrum at present!

 

[birchesgreen]

A national unity government.

 

[Swanny200]

Javed was one that was touted as the future and managed to be pushed out before it really did his career a lot of harm. Gove is another Johnson, only out for himself and to shaft anyone else around him which he has proved a few times now.

Sunak makes IDS look less boring, Williamson and Hancock are both very close to being finished in government. I don't think any of the current government will be popular over this crisis if it came to a leader's election tomorrow.

As long as for the love of god Patel is nowhere near it, that is one nasty piece of work.

 

[Ianno87]

Sajid Javid would be my shout. He had the decency to stand up and not just do what Cummings told him.

 

[adc82140]

Rishi Sunak is only popular because he has access to the magic money tree. Once the leaves have all fallen from that, then he'll be associated with the inevitable tax rises and austerity that follows.

 

[Bletchleyite]

A national unity government.

I fear that ship may have sailed, but I would agree.

 

[SuspectUsual]

There isn’t a single candidate that inspires any sort of confidence in me.

Sunak - popular because his exposure to the public has largely been limited to giving out money.

Gove - slippery as anything, utterly untrustworthy, but big mates with Cummings

Patel - really, really nasty piece of work.

Raab / Hancock / Williamson - out of their depths already

Javid - possibly looking rather better these days because of resigning on a point of principle and being on the back benches in recent months. Doesn’t make him a more viable candidate

Hunt - similar to Javid

Maybe it’s me being a bit older / better informed / more cynical than I used to be, but I really can’t recall a government that’s so universally inept. It’s thoroughly dispiriting

 

[DPQ]

Rees-Mogg

A leader who knows how to dress...

 

[Tetchytyke]

Gove, Patel, Sunak. Dear me.

The Inanimate Carbon Rod off the Simpsons would be better than all of them.

In fact, that's who I'd like to see replace Johnson. It'll make more sense than Dominic "where is France, again?" Raab.