Bombardier Derby at "30 year high"

[Domh245]

Isn’t Newton Aycliffe doing the Avanti 805/807 fleets and EMR 810s?

They are, can't believe I managed to forget those!

Both fleets should see NA assembling trains into 2022, so looks like they'll all be running out of orders at around the same time

 

[thenorthern]

The French state is one of the largest shareholders of Alstom. They'll do whatever is deemed politically expedient, not what makes business sense.

Remember the Sixth Law of Informed Sources: ‘Don’t engage in joint ventures with the French.’

Post Brexit the Government will take into account where trains are built when awarding contracts as at the moment they can't. When Siemens was awarded the Thameslink contract in 2011 over Bombardier the Government claimed that EU rules forced them to which was very unpopular at the time and would probably explain why Derby voted leave.

It may not represent good value for money building trains in the United Kingdom if it's more expensive than building them in Germany but it will sound good in the mind of voters.

 

[Meerkat]

It may not represent good value for money building trains in the United Kingdom if it's more expensive than building them in Germany but it will sound good in the mind of voters.

But then you get into the difficult and political issue of whether the value of spending the money in the UK has a significant economic value and whether that outweighs the alleged advantages of free trade.

 

[WesternLancer]

They are, can't believe I managed to forget those!

Both fleets should see NA assembling trains into 2022, so looks like they'll all be running out of orders at around the same time

Just about when post covid and only a modest rtn to commuting the DfT and Treasury stop sanctioning the money for new trains and decide the UK can manage with a smaller fleet...

 

[RealTrains07]

In the 18 years electrostars were built Bombardier built 679 trains

By 2022 7 years since bombardier started building aventras.

413 train sets would have been built. That says alot about bombardier as a manufacturer. They have gained aventra orders far more quickly than electrostar orders

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Post Brexit the Government will take into account where trains are built when awarding contracts as at the moment they can't. When Siemens was awarded the Thameslink contract in 2011 over Bombardier the Government claimed that EU rules forced them to which was very unpopular at the time and would probably explain why Derby voted leave.
It may not represent good value for money building trains in the United Kingdom if it's more expensive than building them in Germany but it will sound good in the mind of voters.

Generally, the government doesn't buy trains, the TOCs and Roscos do (HS2 stock is the only current government procurement).
Trading with the EU may well change, but we are supposed to have magic new deals with China, India, Brazil etc.
Railway vehicles aren't "critical national infrastructure" like defence.
There will be plenty of competition for building new trains.
In any case the Derby plant is part of a privately-owned German (shortly to be French) company.

 

[supervc-10]

The oldest Sprinter is 36, so they are coming towards the end of their life. However would Bombardier have anything suitable to offer? Their last UK DMU was the Turbostar almost a decade ago.

I'm sure that bi-mode Aventras have been discussed in the past. Would certainly be great for SWR to replace the 159s.

 

[Richard Scott]

In any case the Derby plant is part of a privately-owned German (shortly to be French) company.

Thought Bombardier was Canadian?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Thought Bombardier was Canadian?

Bombardier's transportation division was/is run from Berlin.

 

[WilloughbyGC]

Bombardier's transportation division was/is run from Berlin.

But tax domiciled in the UK..https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/09862744

 

[Swanny200]

That's the thing - there's now several alternative products available for EMU replacement. Siemens, CAF and Bombardier - I'm guessing the competition between them must be pretty fierce. Alstom were looking at re-entering the UK market with an EMU design as well, which I suspect has now fallen by the wayside with the Bombardier takeover.

You also have to look at Talgo moving to Fife too, i'm not too sure on what metro type EMU's they do but you have to imagine that they won't be just moving there just to produce high speed stock.

 

[Domh245]

You also have to look at Talgo moving to Fife too, i'm not too sure on what metro type EMU's they do but you have to imagine that they won't be just moving there just to produce high speed stock.

The Fife factory is entirely conditional on winning the HS2 order. Odds of it happening are near zero IMO

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

But tax domiciled in the UK..https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/09862744

Isn't that just the UK arm?
The wider business (strategy, investment, employment levels etc) is managed from Berlin, where their largest plants are based.

Home

www.bombardier.com

Bombardier Transportation employs about 36000 people globally, 4000 of whom are in the UK.

 

[Swanny200]

I must have missed that part then, I doubt they will be coming over then, you would heavily bet on a company with the infrastructure already here.

In terms of Bombardier future orders, the 170's are coming up to 20 years old DMU wise, their other DMU stock are older than that, would Scotrail be looking at newer stuff?

 

[WesternLancer]

I must have missed that part then, I doubt they will be coming over then, you would heavily bet on a company with the infrastructure already here.

In terms of Bombardier future orders, the 170's are coming up to 20 years old DMU wise, their other DMU stock are older than that, would Scotrail be looking at newer stuff?

Yes, isn't it likely to be the case that DMU orders are more likely to be required before more EMU orders? What with sprinter era fleets and 170s being old, then considering Diesel networkers - and only after that electric networkers. In that scenario CAF may have made a wise decision to locate here with a ready to go DMU product.

Also the larger share of newer EMUs would, if commuting reduces, be better placed to be redistributed around electrified routes. Post covid you don't need social distancing and if commuting is lower long term then you shorten trains from 12 cars to 8 and free up stock.

That's not an option with the existing already short typically 2 car DMU fleet that is older to start with. Little scope to free up units, without cutting service frequency (which could happen too of course).

Of course DfT avoids the DMU issue by constantly talking about bi-modes /battery / hydrogen type trains / flex etc, but surely the new build requirements going forward are more likely to be for DMUs?

 

[Swanny200]

That is the other thing, is the Aventra primarily an EMU or was there ever talk of a DMU variant the next question would be would it be easy to make an Aventra a DMU, there is still scope for 3 or even 4 car DMU's for the foreseeable future which is why as @WesternLancer is quite right to point out CAF have come in with a product able to slot straight in.

 

[WesternLancer]

That is the other thing, is the Aventra primarily an EMU or was there ever talk of a DMU variant the next question would be would it be easy to make an Aventra a DMU, there is still scope for 3 or even 4 car DMU's for the foreseeable future which is why as @WesternLancer is quite right to point out CAF have come in with a product able to slot straight in.

Good question Swanny200!
And whilst I was impressed when I 1st went on a new CAF 195 DMU before lock down after a while I realised that was because most of the time I was on Sprinters, as my bench mark, but when I studied it more closely I didn't think there was much more to it than a fair bit older Bombardier built 170.

 

[Swanny200]

195's certainly have a bit of a utilitarian look on the outside, not been on one in person though, when you are used to a sprinter or a pacer, I would imagine it would be like getting a 1st class upgrade

 

[samuelmorris]

True, but a little misleading because with TfL having moved away from Bombardier and no diesel/bimode orders going Bombardier's way thus far, it's unlikely to last much longer once the current Aventra orders are done. I suppose HS2 is a possibility but there'll be several years of uncertainty before that.

 

[Domh245]

In terms of Bombardier future orders, the 170's are coming up to 20 years old DMU wise, their other DMU stock are older than that, would Scotrail be looking at newer stuff?

Yes, isn't it likely to be the case that DMU orders are more likely to be required before more EMU orders? What with sprinter era fleets and 170s being old, then considering Diesel networkers - and only after that electric networkers. In that scenario CAF may have made a wise decision to locate here with a ready to go DMU product.

Self-powered MUs, to be accurate (and optimistic) - my hope is that the 197s are the last pure DMU ordered and that subsequent orders are for at the very least bi-modes, bearing in mind the 2030 cutoff date for pure DMUs on the network. ScotRail definitely won't be looking at new DMUs, only new self-powered (read: battery or hydrogen) units but odds are on Hitachi for that. CAF's offering looses almost all attractiveness (in being tried and tested) if you rule out pure DMUs - the only thing going for it then is it's price, which shows

 

[hwl]

That is the other thing, is the Aventra primarily an EMU or was there ever talk of a DMU variant the next question would be would it be easy to make an Aventra a DMU, there is still scope for 3 or even 4 car DMU's for the foreseeable future which is why as @WesternLancer is quite right to point out CAF have come in with a product able to slot straight in.

No pure diesel option but bi-mode options using MTU rafts (as Hitachi does).

A local route bimode Aventra would need comparatively little engine raft.

 

[samuelmorris]

Self-powered MUs, to be accurate (and optimistic) - my hope is that the 197s are the last pure DMU ordered and that subsequent orders are for at the very least bi-modes, bearing in mind the 2030 cutoff date for pure DMUs on the network. ScotRail definitely won't be looking at new DMUs, only new self-powered (read: battery or hydrogen) units but odds are on Hitachi for that. CAF's offering looses almost all attractiveness (in being tried and tested) if you rule out pure DMUs - the only thing going for it then is it's price, which shows

Does the bi-mode option extend down to the AT200 platform? I can see the Hitachi option being too expensive otherwise.

 

[Carntyne]

Does the bi-mode option extend down to the AT200 platform? I can see the Hitachi option being too expensive otherwise.

Yes.

 

[DorkingMain]

I don't expect the order book for CAF, Hitachi or Bombardier to calm down any time soon. It will not be too long before pretty much all Mk3-based stock is life expired (some of the earliest stuff already meeting the cutter's torch).

 

[Swanny200]

I know they are already getting long in the tooth, but are networkers and turbo's mk3 derived?

 

[thenorthern]

Generally, the government doesn't buy trains, the TOCs and Roscos do (HS2 stock is the only current government procurement).
Trading with the EU may well change, but we are supposed to have magic new deals with China, India, Brazil etc.
Railway vehicles aren't "critical national infrastructure" like defence.
There will be plenty of competition for building new trains.
In any case the Derby plant is part of a privately-owned German (shortly to be French) company.

Sort of the Department for Transport has a role in the Procurement of new stock and it legally has to award it to the best value for money bid.

With trains though it depends on if that is included in any trade deal. At the moment everything is included with the free movement of goods within the EU. When signing free trade deals however the EU normally likes to exclude food and drink products from any trade deal because of the way farming works in the EU. Realistically though trains are likely to be included in a free trade deal although that doesn't mean we have to buy them from the EU.

Currently the import tariff for trains is 1.7% which might not seem a lot but it adds up.

Slightly off topic though regarding a free trade deal with the EU Nigel Farage often says "If the EU don't agree to a free trade deal we should go to the French Wine Makers and the Belgian Chocolate makers and tell them this". Farage is incorrect here as it's highly unlikely that French Wine and Belgian Chocolate would be included in a trade deal.

 

[WesternLancer]

I know they are already getting long in the tooth, but are networkers and turbo's mk3 derived?

I don't think so, no.

 

[Richard Scott]

I know they are already getting long in the tooth, but are networkers and turbo's mk3 derived?

Doubt it as they're aluminium construction and mark 3 based units are steel.

 

[DorkingMain]

I know they are already getting long in the tooth, but are networkers and turbo's mk3 derived?

456s or 158/159 are the last Mark 3 derived stock, depending on who you ask.

 

[Richard Scott]

456s or 158/159 are the last Mark 3 derived stock, depending on who you ask.

Know it's off topic but would think the 175/180 have a little in common with a mark 3 or are appearances deceptive?